“I’ll be a check on the Pritzker-Madigan agenda,” Republican attorney general candidate Erika Harold says in her latest TV ad about Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner J.B. Pritzker and Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan.
Coincidentally, I had written on my blog a few days earlier that if “voters are looking for a check on J.B. Pritzker and Speaker Madigan and they can’t bring themselves to vote for Gov. Rauner, she might be a realistic option,” adding “It’s probably too bad she can’t just come right out and say that in an ad,” because Rauner is helping fund her campaign.
The Harold campaign was way ahead of me, however. They produced that ad months ago and waited for just the right time to release it.
And now, a similar line of attack is cropping up elsewhere. In southern Illinois, for instance, state Rep. Jerry Costello’s Republican opponent David Freiss says he’ll “always put southern Illinois first,” and then an announcer claims of Rep. Costello (D-Smithton), “He’d rubber stamp the Madigan/Pritzker agenda.”
I’m told that line or something very similar is being used as a closing statement to voters by House Republican candidates and incumbents “everywhere.”
They’re simply dealing with reality.
Lots of folks have certainly heard about the polling that has Gov. Bruce Rauner trailing Pritzker by double digits, so even if they are voting for Rauner many figure he probably can’t win. And if the polls are right, lots more folks have decided that they cannot vote for Rauner no way no how, but some of them are still uneasy about the future. Republican polling reportedly shows that independents and even a significant minority of Democrats want a “check” on whatever Pritzker and Madigan may do together.
Pritzker has never really pushed back hard against Rauner’s constant claims that Madigan will subjugate him if he becomes governor. And Rauner has birthed and nurtured those assumptions with millions of dollars in TV ads. Pritzker has only once countered that charge in in a TV ad, mocking the governor’s claims: “Mike Madigan hates puppies. Mike Madigan hates sunshine. JB Pritzker and Mike Madigan are Democrats. So JB Pritzker must hate puppies, and sunshine.” He hasn’t addressed it since.
Personally, I don’t think Pritzker will be Madigan’s underling. Madigan can’t just call a bunch of labor union leaders to steer them away from Pritzker’s next fundraiser (a favorite tactic) because the billionaire doesn’t need anybody else’s money. Madigan’s progressive caucus is steadily growing, and may grow further with this election, so stymying or slow-walking or under-cutting the wealthy Pritzker and/or his agenda could cause him real grief with his own membership.
And Pritzker’s strategy has never been to win by being likeable. It’s clear that the Democrat’s plan from the very beginning was to bury Rauner under an overwhelming avalanche of brutal ads that call him a “failure” and a “liar.” Just keep the governor’s negatives sky high, never take that foot off his throat and call it a day.
Property tax “fraud” allegation? Write another check and run a new anti-Rauner ad. Racial discrimination lawsuit by campaign staff? Write another check and run a new anti-Rauner ad. A buzzy TV ad showing an “unholy” marriage to Madigan with an “F-bomb” thrown in for good measure? Write another check and run a new anti-Rauner ad. Blam, blam, blam. Never let him gather enough strength to even stand up, let alone make a real fight of it.
These new Republican ads, therefore, might help down-ballot Republicans take advantage of a gaping hole that Pritzker has never bothered to close. At least, that’s the theory. We’ll know if it works come election day. And even if it doesn’t, the underlying theory ain’t bad at all and is probably all that at least some of them have left.
That new Freiss ad, by the way, also attaches the Republican as closely as possible to President Donald Trump. Freiss says in the ad that he’ll “drain the Springfield swamp,” and the announcer claims Rep. Costello, by backing the Madigan/Pritzker agenda, would block Trump’s policies in Illinois. The ad also claims that Costello is funded by “anti-Trump” lobbyists. “Drain Springfield’s swamp and liberal Jerry Costello” is the conclusion.
As I write this, Trump is preparing to visit southern Illinois and area Democrats are bracing themselves for a possible regional Trump bounce. So, the ad is timely. This is not to say I think Rep. Costello will lose, mind you. He’s a smart campaigner and has been very popular.
- Not a Billionaire - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:00 am:
There is not much evidence for Trump bounces. Nevada was in early voting and Ralston said the net bounce was 300. As to Madigan he needs to drop his southern Illinos obsession. He has to accept he has a progressive party of northern Illinous and urban downstate or he needs to be replaced.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:04 am:
IMO, JC2 is more of a fiscal conservative(and social conservative) tha Bruce Rauner ever dreamed of being.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:05 am:
The, uh, gentleman your niece interviewed at the Trump rally seemed like he’d never heard of Mike Bost. That can’t be good for other down-ballot Republicans.
OTOH, Bost and other Republicans probably don’t want that guy’s support either. Yeesh.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:10 am:
–“I’ll be a check on the Pritzker-Madigan agenda,”–
Very smart strategy to attract the ticket-splitters who historically provide the winning margin statewide.
I was wondering if her peeps would see that opening for some broken-field running, shaking off Trump, Rauner and today’s GOP. The message could be a winner in a race between two relative unknowns.
Yo, Boss Rauner — those wheels on the bus, they go round and round, don’t they, all over your tukkus?
Now you know how it feels.
- RNUG - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:16 am:
Since I watched the World Series on TV, I was forced to watch some political ads. I have to agree with Rich. The GOP ads were almost all “Madigan bad”. At least the Erika Harold one gave you a reason to vote for her. The Dem ads were all either “Rauner failed” or, for national races, tieing the GOP candidate to Trump.
So anything that was positive cut through the clutter of the “I’m not them, vote for me” negative ads.
Adding … Mrs RNUG is elated the Red Sox won.
- DarkHorse - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:21 am:
While I agree with virtually everything Wordslinger writes, I think the effectiveness of Harold’s argument is undercut by 1) coming too late in the game 2) her own right wing views, which Raoul has exaggerated. If Mark Kirk could only win by 2% in a huge Republican year; and Rauner could only win by 4 against an awful Pat Quinn in a good GOP year, how does she win? She’ll do well - lose by 5 or 6 - and set herself up nicely for a well paying job at a law firm and another statewide run down the road.
- Truthteller - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:24 am:
Harold will fight the Democratic agenda in Illinois while standing aside on the Trump agenda.
I think Trump poses a much greater danger to the country than Madigan does to the State.
We need an AG who will join other Democratic AG’s in pushing back against Trump
- ZC - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:27 am:
Though (and of course you know this Rich) if Pritzker is spending a lot of time on the air arguing about his independence from Madigan, he’s “responding” and playing on his opponents’ preferred field of battle.
We’ll see how JB’s strategy plays out for the rest of the ticket but despite a lot of second-guessing about their strategy, they look like they have played their cards shrewdly. Of course they started with a very good hand.
- Cheryl44 - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:30 am:
If Erika Harold was a moderate Republican she’d have a point and might have even gotten my vote.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 10:40 am:
Dark Horse, you may end up being right on how it will all end, but I submit that Harold has taken the smartest path that could lead to victory for her this year.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 11:29 am:
Not that i talked to dozens of people at the rally, the ones i did talk to were voting for Rauner and every other Republican on the ballot. Pretty die hard bunch.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 11:36 am:
“Not that i talked to dozens of people at the rally, the ones i did talk to were voting for Rauner and every other Republican on the ballot. Pretty die hard bunch.”
All loyal Republicans…just like you.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 11:39 am:
CC. One independent. Two Repubs and five Dems. What about you?
- DarkHorse - Monday, Oct 29, 18 @ 11:46 am:
Dear Wordslinger, I agree Harold is taking the smartest path for herself. If Rich’s reporting is accurate - which I’m sure it is - she had this “independent” ad in the can, held back till she got every last dollar she was going to get from Rauner, and then cut him loose - well done!
Harold obviously plays well with “elites”, but I wonder how she plays with voters overall. She didn’t quite get to 60% in the primary - despite having more money, institutional support, all the main newspaper endorsements. Maybe people have difficulty relating to her.