101 Comments - Question - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:24 pm: 9 - ABC - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:26 pm: 12.5 - Reality Check - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:27 pm: 13 - walker - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:28 pm: 7.5 - Practical Politics - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:28 pm: In fairness, Dunne was elected due to a split in the Republican Party between the Regulars and the Bull Moose Progressives. Dunne was on borrowed time once the Republicans reconciled. 10.5. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm: Pritzger by 12 Ogilvie at least knew he was taking one for the team, passing the tax bill everyone knew Illinois needed but were too cowardly to enact. He left the state in better shape than he found it. Rauner’s legacy? - Rutro - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm: Pritzker by 16, bigger margin is thanks to McCann - The Snowman - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm: 11. About 400,000 votes. - Chris P. Bacon - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm: JB by 13.2 With 100% chance Rauner’s people all blame President Trump. - DeseDemDose - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:30 pm: 12 - Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:36 pm: Been on 9 for two years. Final answer. - SweetLou86 - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:36 pm: might have to go as high as +15 for me to take the under cause of the 3rd party candidates - cler dcn - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:38 pm: I am going to say about 9 but I hope more. Again another conservative who cannot wait to get a new governor and I hope so. One never really knows how it will play out crazy things happen. - South Sider - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:38 pm: JB by 13.5 - West Sider - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:39 pm: 14. The question is: does Rauner come in 2nd or 3rd? I’m pretty sure Winderweedle/McCann collectivly out do him- the question is how they perform individually. - Real - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:40 pm: I’m going to side closely with the polls we have seen over the months… Therefore I say JB by 17. - RNUG - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:40 pm: 14 - doofusguy - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:41 pm: 23 - Can - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm: J.B. by 16 - Suburban Mom - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm: Lucky number 13 - AlfondoGonz - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm: 13.5. Take the over. Leave the Governor’s Mansion. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:45 pm: I’m thinking 14.5 as the “number”… should get play from both sides of it. The goal is the House makes money on the “number”, lol - Stones - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:46 pm: J.B. 15 pts - train111 - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:46 pm: 15 Depressed GOP turnout due to Rauner being on the top of the ticket spell disaster for the GOP in downballot races in the suburbs. - Stark - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:49 pm: JB by 12. - Fixer - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:50 pm: I’m saying 6, and that’s being generous to Rauner. Given some of the self inflicted wounds with the Pritzker campaign, and the lack of more recent polling data, I don’t want to see folks take a Rauner loss for granted. - Not It - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:50 pm: 9.5. The bigger debate is the AG race. Can we ask that tomorrow? - Hyperbolic Chamber - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:51 pm: 9. JB tops 51% & Rauner gets 42%. Sam & Kash split the rest. - Henry Francis - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:52 pm: 16 - Pritzker (Rich. You didn’t ask us to say who would win - lol) Is anyone enthusiastic about Rauner? I figured once he lost the bikers all he had left was Diana. - beach panda - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:52 pm: O/U 14 - JBT got 39% in 2006 and people liked/loved her - Trump got 39% in 2016 - Hard to see Rauner higher than 38% given that and a 3-4 way race. - Maestro - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:53 pm: 5 percent margin to Pritzker - DarkHorse - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:57 pm: 13 Any chance Rauner had to make it single digits vanished with the Trump “snub”. The President is saying to his people: “I’m embarrassing this guy, I want you to embarrass him too.” - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:59 pm: What’s the chance that ck will be Rauner’s housemaid in Italy? - Les Nessman - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:59 pm: 13.5-J.B. - Bogey Golfer - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:02 pm: 11. Have seen a real lack of Rauner yard signs here in DuPage County. - The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:04 pm: 9.5 and afterward Rauner will still claim it as a personal victory for him. - Flapdoodle - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm: 11 percent. McCann gets 5.1 percent from hardcore right and the generally disaffected. JB runs well in traditional Democratic areas, picks up suburban swing voters and some fed up downstaters. 58.5 percent. Rauner gets 36.4 percent from downstate and Republican loyalists. That’s a hellacious 22.1 percent difference, so my over/under is 11 percent. (BTW, I got these numbers very scientifically at the bottom of a glass while talking to a mid-state bartender.) - Anon0091 - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm: 15.8 - lakeside - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm: I’ll go ten. I remember being here in 2014 and all the comments about Rauner having no ground game on election day, etc. etc. and he over-performed by 5 points. So I’m going to take 5 off what I hope. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:09 pm: Pritzker in a landslide. 20. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:11 pm: I’m going with +4 for Pritzker. I haven’t see any polls since the lawsuit stuff, so I’m discounting a Pritzker route. If the goal of an odds maker is to make money, I’d feel pretty confident with that number. Pritzker: 48 Rauner: 44 McCann: 6 Others: 2 - Pick a Name - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:15 pm: 7 - illini - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:17 pm: I’m going with JB by 12. That was my jersey number in all sports I played so many years ago. - WSJ Paywall - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:18 pm: It’s going to be closer than people think. Pritzker wins by 6. - Anon324 - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:18 pm: 16.5 As most here know, undecided partisans would usually fall back in line by election day. However, I think this year a decent number of Republicans who are mad at/disenchanted with Rauner see the writing on the wall and either don’t vote for anyone for governor, or vote for Jackson or McCann, which will keep the spread wider than would otherwise be the case. - JMJ - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:23 pm: 16 - Rail Splitter - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:23 pm: Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election. He was appointed and only served a portion of another term. - Sine Die - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:24 pm: JB wins by 8 - Wensicia - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm: 11 - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm: ===Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election. He was appointed and only served a portion of another term.=== (Sigh) “Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election.” While true, you negate that Quinn served 2 years, faced the voters, and won his own 4 year term. “He was appointed” Quinn won election as the Lt. Governor. Constitutionally, after the impeachment, Quinn was sworn in as governor. “and only served a portion of another term.” … as the constitution says, and, again, after 2 years, was re-elected. - Values Voters - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:28 pm: Rauner - 36% Pritzker - 56% McCann/Cash - 8% Topinka got 37% in 2006, people forget that because Whitney did so well. Pendulum swung back toward GOP after Blago’s removal and Quinn’s failure. It is swinging back hard the other way now, with national winds to bolster it. - Flynn's Mom - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:32 pm: Pritzker by 17 points - Andy Byars - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:32 pm: Pritzker +9. I think both GOP and Democratic nominee won’t cross the 47% threshold - Montrose - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:33 pm: JB by 6 and he doesn’t get over 50%. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:34 pm: Not sure where to put this. I will say Rauner will get 40% of the vote. Third parties will get anywhere from 2%-10%. So let’s split the difference and say they get 6%. I guess that makes my number 14. My instincts tell me that number might be a little high. But I really don’t see Rauner much higher than 40%. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:34 pm: Pritzker 53 Rauner 37 McCann 7 Kash 3 - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:38 pm: ===He was appointed=== He wasn’t appointed. Constitutional order of succession. - Saluki - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:38 pm: In a shocking upset…. Rauner 44 Pritzker 43 Jackson 9 McCann 4 - TopHatMonocle - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:39 pm: JB by 9. Pritzker 50, Rauner 41, McCann 6, Winderweedle 3. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:40 pm: ===If the goal of an odds maker is to make money=== The goal is to keep as much money as possible. You’d attract a lot of bets with that number, for sure. I don’t know you’d keep a lot. - Angry Republican - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:41 pm: Go big or go home; Pritzker beats Rauner by three touchdowns (21). - btowntruthfromforgottonia - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:52 pm: Pritzker by 12% - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:52 pm: == I don’t know you’d keep a lot.== Yeah, maybe bump it up to 6 or 8. As you said though, double digit losses by an incumbent are pretty rare. I’d feel comfortable taking the under on most everyone else who poster. - Langhorne - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:53 pm: J.B. 14.5 58.5 Vs (30.5 R + 11/comb) Diana is chilling the champagne. And rearranging the chairs on the back porch of the mansion. - theq - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:11 pm: 13.5 - strawman - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:19 pm: 13% - the Patriot - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:21 pm: 4% Rauner Beat Quinn by 3.9. While Rauner is not as competent as Quinn, I don’t see JB as Better than Rauner 4 year ago. That combined with the Trump factor that I believe will push republicans down state to larger margins lets Rauner stay close. At the end of the day, no one who didn’t vote for Quinn is in love with Pritzker, so where are you really going to get double digits? It could be the perfect storm for Madigan to have a governor who wins by historic margin with less than 45% of the vote in a 3 way race. - Em - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:28 pm: 9ish and I don’t think McCann gets 5, though he may get close. I think the r’s who pay attention enough to be angry with Rauner will realize that McCann isn’t real and they hold their nose and come home (or they realize that unlike Jeanne, McCann really is the Madigan plant, and they dislike Madigan more than they dislike Rauner, either way same result). Kash, despite his baggage, hasn’t gotten as much coverage and I think it benefits him and he picks up some of the anti-Rauner r’s who can’t bring themselves to come home, and he over-performs compared to the polls. If I’m wrong on McCann, I still believe Pritzker doesn’t get more of a margin than 11. - Smitty Irving - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:33 pm: JB’s 9 + 5 from National wave = 14. Remember, the National wave took out Quinn and re-elected Blago. - Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:40 pm: JB +13 and over 50% And honestly, if I saw that number on the board, I’d take the over, but that’s where I’m at today. - d.p.gumby - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:48 pm: Drove from Spi to Nokomis last Saturday over the blue roads. Saw no Rauner signs though plenty for other Repubs and for JB and McCann. Striking. JB by 14. - PublicServant - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:49 pm: Rauner -20. It’s going to be a huge democratic turnout, and this new deluge of voters don’t do polls, so the Pritzker lead is even bigger than the polls forecast. - Top of the State - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:50 pm: Pritzker will win by a comfortable margin. I am always interested in the counties won. Quinn/Brady winner was with only four counties out of 102….which included Cook of course. - occasional quipper - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:00 pm: Rauner by 1 - Elliott Ness - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:10 pm: 11 is a good number for this rout, someone better get occasional quipper some tums - Barrington - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:18 pm: JB +20 or more because I don’t know which group would vote for Rauner. - occasional quipper - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:20 pm: No worries Elliot Ness… I’m just the guy in the office pool who looks at all the other predictions and picks something off the wall so that I look like a genius if I’m root but will simply be forgotten if I’m wrong. - occasional quipper - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:20 pm: oops… root = right - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:21 pm: There is no recent poll, to gauge how the latest events leached through the public mind. I see in polling sites how other governor races are polled frequently (maybe because they’re so close?). I think it will be closer than polls indicate. For some reason, I keep seeing Pritzker by 6-7, like in my mind, man. But I’m terrible at prognosticatin’ and have less confidence because of 2014 and 2016. - Nacho - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:30 pm: The most recent polls have shown Pritzker up 16-22, so I’ll split the difference and say 19. That also seems consistent with Rauner being less popular than Trump, who lost by 17. - Fav human - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:42 pm: Gosh, we all forgot Dan Walker… Rauner loses by 14+% - OneMan - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:43 pm: 8.5 - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:51 pm: ===we all forgot Dan Walker=== Walker lost a primary, this is a general. Nobody forgot anything. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:56 pm: JB wins by 15 around 55. There are so many odd turnout possibilities I have little confidence in this, but I think 15 is the minimum difference between the two. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:58 pm: ===National wave took out Quinn and re-elected Blago. Blago won reelection by 11 points with Rich Whitney pulling in 10. That wasn’t just the wave–he actually lost of lot of liberal voters and just fed up voters to random liberal white guy with a beard. - Boone's is Back - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:01 pm: JB by 10 - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:03 pm: ===random liberal white guy with a beard=== IIRC, his name on the ballot in Chicago for a time was “Rich Whitey.” - Archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:10 pm: ===IIRC, his name on the ballot in Chicago for a time was “Rich Whitey.” Purposeful or not the most on the nose typo ever. - Solia - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:24 pm: 16 52/36/9/3 - Dr. Pepper - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:46 pm: I’m with fixer: 5 or 6 - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:56 pm: I threw this comment thread into Excel. Our crowdsource estimate: Median = 13 Average = 12.1 Throw out the bottom 25% and top 25%, what’s our range? 9-14.5 - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:33 pm: Pritzker by 15 if I were making book. It depends on how well McCann closes. McCann seems to have burned the Rauner RINO message in, I would have liked to see him make an appeal that conservatives need to send a message to the GOP establishment not to tread on the party’s traditional values. Will McCann be at 4 or at 7? I don’t know. But I don’t see Rauner cracking 40% at this point, and I think Pritzker breaks 50% pretty easily. - Illinoised - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:38 pm: JB +11 and 55% - Eric Zorn - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 6:06 pm: JB by 7 - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 6:20 pm: 9% - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:55 pm: McCann pull large # of voters from Rauner in southern IL. jB Winn’s by 18% - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:55 pm: McCann pull large # of voters from Rauner in southern IL. j by 1 - Generic Drone - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:57 pm: JB 52% Rauner39 McCann 7% - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 10:37 pm: You would have to have either almost unprecedented turnout in Cook County and Chicago or a change in downstate voting to get Pritzker to these number. The later seem more difficult too given recent nation and statewide trends. - Stumpy's bunker - Wednesday, Oct 31, 18 @ 6:52 am: JB by as little as 8%. I marvel at the cynical ability of the Rauner crew to manipulate a tax & toilet issue, for example, to surpass the perceived gravity of what happened in Quincy and Willowbrook…not to mention the human toll resulting from devastating some life-saving social services throughout the state. - theCardinal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 18 @ 11:55 am: 6.5% JB Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.