When was Rauner’s fate sealed?
Monday, Nov 5, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
All the real action in the 2018 governor’s race happened in the primary. Since then, it’s been little more than a series of sideshows while we wait for what looks to be a very predictable outcome.
Democrat J.B. Pritzker unveiled all but one of his policy proposals before the March 20 vote and spent much of that race debating the direction of Illinois with his two main opponents, who produced their own plans and then graciously endorsed him shortly after they lost.
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner started his primary race by ignoring his opponent, but then had to kick it into high gear in the closing days to narrowly avoid defeat. Polls have shown since then that he has failed to unify Republican voters after that bitter battle. And his rival, state Rep. Jeanne Ives, R-Wheaton, has refused to endorse him to this day.
The governor has since had to scramble to pull his base together while also trying to appeal to moderate suburban women, who have long held the key to the Governor’s Mansion in this state. That’s been complicated by a union-funded “Conservative Party” candidate who regularly slashes him from the right. So Rauner’s been forced to do things like stage an endorsement from the Illinois State Rifle Association in southern Illinois to try to hold things together.
Pritzker, for his part, has spent the general election campaign shelling out massive amounts of money to make extra-special sure that every single sentient creature in this state has received and understood his ubiquitous message on all available news and social media platforms that the governor is a lying failure.
The biggest news since the primary about the Democratic front-runner is not what he wants to do, but what he has been accused of doing. A Cook County inspector general’s report alleged that people near him participated in a “scheme to defraud” taxpayers when they ripped toilets out of Pritzker’s vacant mansion to lower its property taxes. Ten current and former staffers sued his campaign for racial discrimination and retaliation. And then two of his staffers were fired after one took a video of another staffer putting on what resembled blackface (it was supposedly a charcoal facial treatment) and then posted it online.
But Pritzker’s double-digit lead in every public poll has contributed to a lack of enthusiasm by reporters, their editors or both to thoroughly cover his candidacy. During the last few months he’s held publicized Chicago-area events and no reporters turned up to ask him questions. Half the city running for mayor probably doesn’t help, either.
Rauner’s fate was likely sealed the day
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- Arsenal - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:51 am:
Rauner’s fate isn’t sealed.
- People Over Parties - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:54 am:
Rauner’s political situation was made undoubtedly worse the day Donald Trump was elected president. The national headwinds have been just brutal against him. With Hillary, as Rich points out, it could have been a much different situation to Rauner’s likely benefit.
- Retired Educator - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:54 am:
Arsenal; It will be tomorrow. He has no chance at reelection. This has been over for a very long time. He caused his own defeat.
- AlfondoGonz - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:56 am:
“Shake up Cheyenne” has a good ring to it.
- Are Ya Kiddin' Me? - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:57 am:
Couldn’t agree more with your conclusion, except to say his fate was sealed earlier than his Inaug.
I’d say election night when he and his team determined they “won” with a “mandate” (and remember election night when Rauner “talked” to Madigan about his mandate?). He didn’t “win”, Quinn lost. Voters 4 years ago voted against Quinn. The Raunerites never excepted that fact.
- Practical Politics - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:58 am:
I think Rauner’s signing of H.B. 40 caused lots of collateral damage. I believe it led to his primary challenge by Ives. A bruising primary was the last thing Rauner needed.
- Arsenal - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:58 am:
==It will be tomorrow. He has no chance at reelection.==
I’ll rephrase a bit: His fate is sealed, but us mere mortals don’t know what it is yet. No chance? Meh. Stranger things have happened.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:59 am:
Rauner wanted to be a Scott Walker, someone who rides in like John Wayne and beats the unions—at any cost. Those who know how to fight see advantages early, like not giving into anti-union demands in a union state, and letting someone with completely unacceptable policies get “entangled” in their own rope. The full answer should come tomorrow as to what worked.
There haven’t been any public polls in the governors race lately except one yesterday from Victory Research, showing Pritzker up 16 with likely voters and 22 with those who’ve already voted. The polling company is questionable, according to what I read before, but the results seem to be in line with other polls.
- Arsenal - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:02 am:
But I’ll admit, I thought we would have objective evidence that the race was quite a bit tighter by now, and we just don’t. I thought this race would be universally acknowledged as a nail-biter, not one where Rauner has to just hope for everything we see to be wrong to have a chance.
- Shemp - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:02 am:
If it wasn’t sealed before, it was sealed when he folded on the budget and got no reforms out of it. That was the only real shot at reforming the way Illinois conducts business and he lost the war with Madigan that day. He still wasn’t likely going to win re-election doing that, but at least he would have gotten something done. Now he’s accomplished nothing and still won’t get re-elected.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:03 am:
I think Rauner’s fate was sealed when Pritzker won the nomination.
That eliminated Rauner’s only advantage — money. Rauner and Griff could have buried Kennedy or Biss in money, but there was no point trying to outspend Pritzker.
- Deep South - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:05 am:
Rauner’s fate was sealed when he decided to became intransigent regarding the Turnaround Agenda. It proved he had no interest in governing.
- The Dude - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:06 am:
It was best to divide instead of bring everyone together. All deals need to be worked between both sides. He never cared to even hear the other sides plan.
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:09 am:
Wyoming is about to elect a rich Republican governor, Mark Gordon. Baron Von Carhartt missed the bus.
- Ray del Camino - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:10 am:
Sorry. That was me at 11:09.
- dunno - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:10 am:
If Rauner had tackled the state’s financial mess and worked on consensus instead of shacking up with Illinois Policy Institute, he would have had a shot Tuesday. Stupidity and the greed of those around him sealed his fate.
- Gallactic Cupcake - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:15 am:
September 28, 2017 with the signing of HB40. Its plausible that Ives never gets in the race if he vetoes that.
- Enemy of the State - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:15 am:
If you go with Nature, Rauner was doomed about twenty minutes after birth. If you go with Nurture, sometime during the First Grade. If you go with a blend of Nature and Nurture, the day he decided to run for governor. Ciao baby.
- Alternative Logic - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:29 am:
The Governor’s fate was probably sealed from the inauguration (throwing rocks is no basis for a system of government).
But two events which crumbled any chance to regain Republican voter momentum/enthusiasm were when Fox News and the National Review excommunicated him:
August 2017:
Special Report with Bret Baier,”The system is broken” interview fallout
November 2017:
“National Review calls Rauner ‘Worst Republican Governor in America’”
- Anon221 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:30 am:
Always remember Rauner’s own words…
“… the reason we’re going to succeed is the biggest changes we’re driving have nothing to do with the General Assembly, nothing to do with any votes inside Springfield. What we’ve done, I signed an executive order my first month in office. I said, “If you’re in a union in my administrator and you don’t want to be, you don’t have to be, and you don’t have to pay any of the dues,” We got sued. We’re in Federal Court. We are heading with that lawsuit to the US Supreme Court this September. Nothing to do with any of the budget. Nothing to do with any of the reform agenda in the legislature. We are going to be in front of the Supreme Court, and there is more than a 90% odds that we win that case.
Peter Robinson: That’ll change everything, the culture. Right?
Bruce Rauner: That will change the culture and the power structure in Illinois, but across America. When we win that case, every state government, every local government, and every school district in America will no longer be able to force a union membership of the person working for the tax payers doesn’t want to be. That’s transformative for Illinois and across America.”
https://www.hoover.org/research/budget-crisis-land-lincoln
Janus was Rauner’s assignment, and he carried it out. He and Evelyn even tout it (indirectly) in that recent “too much to crow about, too little time” campaign ad. If he gets a second term, his assignment is remaps… and, of course, the continuing saga of “Because Madigan”. The Fates didn’t cut all his strings yet. Voters tomorrow might.
- Earnest - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:30 am:
I won’t be convinced his fate is sealed until the votes are counted. He was doing well on messaging against an very silent DPI until Mendoza and then Pritzker came along. Getting rid of the Superstars hurt a lot.
- Hysteria - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:33 am:
Gallactic Cupcake is exactly right. Without that, Ives doesn’t challenge him. Losing by 2-3 points to relatively unknown and unfunded challenger humiliated him.
- Nacho - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:41 am:
But without somebody named Michael J. Madigan, who does he have to blame for all his failures?
- Pelonski - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:43 am:
Rauner’s fate in this election was sealed long before he ran for office. He got elected by hiding who he truly was from the majority of the voters. We now know him, and the majority of Illinois voters don’t like what they see.
- Not a Billionaire - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:48 am:
I will put it a little later than Pelonski. It was when he walked in a pushed a Koch Walker Tea agenda instead of the Jim Edgar he claimed to be in the last campaign.
- Steve Rogers - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:48 am:
I think the first budget cycle sealed his fate. His willingness to hold the state and its services hostage said to many that he didn’t care about how people were hurt–he only cared about getting what he wanted and winning at all costs.
- Henry Francis - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:49 am:
==I think Rauner’s fate was sealed when Pritzker won the nomination.
That eliminated Rauner’s only advantage — money. Rauner and Griff could have buried Kennedy or Biss in money, but there was no point trying to outspend Pritzker.==
I agree with Word. Rauner is a terrible Governor but could you imagine what he would do to Biss or Kennedy? And if anyone thinks JB has run a poor campaign (yes we know who you are) I would hate to see a Biss or Kennedy campaign try to withstand the onslaught from Rauner’s bucks.
- Flapdoodle - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:52 am:
Agree with AYKM @ 10:57 — Very seldom do elections in the US yield clear policy “mandates.” Rauner’s ego got in his way right from the start, when he confused a narrow electoral win with a policy-based win. He won because his incumbent opponent was widely unpopular, the same reason JB is quite likely to win tomorrow.
- SAP - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:52 am:
==I think Rauner’s signing of H.B. 40 caused lots of collateral damage. I believe it led to his primary challenge by Ives. A bruising primary was the last thing Rauner needed.== Generally agreed, although promising to both sign HB40 and veto HB40 depending on the audience was a bigger problem. Signing HB40 early instead of waiting out the clock long enough to where Ives would have time to mount a primary challenge was a huge gaffe. Since then, the Governor has been running around trying to shore up his right flank in a blue state.
Honorable mention for targeting Sam McCann after he failed the Governor’s purity test. If you’re going to take someone out, you have to make sure he’s dead.
- SAP - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:57 am:
Make that “Ives would have no time to mount a primary challenge”.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:04 pm:
This is actually pretty clear. Rauner’s fate was sealed when he declared war not just on public sector unions (he would have had a lot of Democrats along for that ride) but on all unions. It united labor and various Democratic factions in ways unforeseen.
I might also add that his fate was sealed sometime in 2014 when he flunked a second grader’s math quiz. He never realized that 71 was a bigger number than 47 and that 38 was bigger than 20. His failure to grasp that he couldn’t get anything done if he didn’t have the votes (at least 60 and 30) sealed his demise.
- JakeCP - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:10 pm:
I have to agree with the majority of the commenters. He should’ve done more to work with Democrats.
It also doesn’t help that the IL GOP doesn’t have any one person who can unify the party. The social conservatives refuse to support moderate candidates (and we all know this). If Bruce Rauner were to have compromised more, he would still lose tomorrow’s election. This was a lose-lose election, especially with Trump’s victory (in my humble opinion).
- The Dude Abides - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:14 pm:
Rich is spot on that he likely sealed his fate early on. He never accepted the reality that the Democrats were the majority party in the Legislature and instead came in looking for a fight. He was going to make Illinois a low wage state regardless of the damage done to get it. That’s not governing.
During the long budget impasse when the grand bargain was close to happening, Rauner pulled the plug. He thought that if he allowed the impasse to drag on even longer more concessions from Democrats would come his way. He could have walked away with a few small victories there such as modest concessions on workman’s comp. Instead he badly overplayed his hand and got nothing.
If he wasn’t finished before his budget veto was overridden he certainly was afterward.
- Gallactic Cupcake - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:21 pm:
The day he chose to run for governor in Illinois…and not Indiana or West Virginia.
- Hysteria - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:24 pm:
JakeCP - “The social conservatives refuse to support moderate candidates (and we all know this).” - That could not be more wrong. How do you think Rauner got elected? He is not and never was a social conservative, yet every social conservative that I know (and it’s a lot, coming from a Catholic, pro-life community) voted for him the first time around. That’s just something that people like to say, but, in practice, it’s not the truth.
- Exit 59 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:42 pm:
The opera ain’t over until the horizontally challenged lady sings.
- Whatever - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:56 pm:
==When we win that case, every state government, every local government, and every school district in America will no longer be able to force a union membership of the person working for the tax payers doesn’t want to be.==
He brags about the Janus case, even though it did not accomplish this goal. Janus was still a union member, and was bound by whatever contract AFSCME might negotiate for him with no right to negotiate his own deal. He just didn’t have to pay for it.
- MG85 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:10 pm:
Rauner made many on the left scared because he looked like a repeat of Chris Christie. A Republican dominating a blue state.
Except he acted like more like Scott Walker when he should have acted more like Christie. The conditions were more similar to those of New Jersey anyway.
In the end, voters want to see things “get done.” Whatever that means in their mind. Deliver for your base, concede to your enemies, and take credit for accomplishments.
Everyone would have forgiven Rauner for the first budget impasse. It wasn’t exactly a new trend. To not pass a budget the whole fiscal year? To bring the state to the brink of economic collapse? That was a self-inflicted wound. He had plenty of concessions by the left on the table. He refused them.
He wanted it all or nothing. Well, he shall get his wish.
The day he made that decision was the day Rauner’s fate was sealed.
- Jocko - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:14 pm:
While it’s hard to argue with Rich’s assessment of 1/13/15…Bruce’s PowerPoint presentation at Richland Community College on 1/27/15 didn’t help.
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:23 pm:
The second week of July 2017
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:08 pm:
“Pleased to meet you
Hope you guessed my name.”
- Alex Ander - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:50 pm:
I’d like to think that my vote tomorrow will cancel out Bruce’s vote for himself. *Bronx cheer at Rauner*
- Demoralized - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:45 pm:
When was his fate sealed? When he didn’t tell the truth about the election night phone calls. He started fibbing right out of the gate. That set the tone for his entire term.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:39 pm:
Rauner’s fate was sealed the day he railed against efforts to reinstate the tax increase in the veto session before taking office.
Rauner had promised to fix the budget with unicorn taxes and money trees.
He had already put himself in a box, if the tax hike had passed before he took office, he would have been off the hook.
He could have spent four years governing with a budget while complaining about the Quinn-Madigan tax hike.
Instead he spent four years failing as a chief executive.
And, it was always going to end the way it did in Kansas or Ohio, with or without the governor’s signature, the tax hike was coming. Atleast Brownback had the smarts to cut a deal and get some concessions. But Rauner being Rauner, could not be seen to be cutting a deal with Madigan. Even though, most people took the quick veto as a sign that The Fix was in.
So Instead, when the GOP lawmakers managed to squeeze out some emding cuts, Rauner and the GOP leaders didnt get amy credit.
- CrazyHorse - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:06 pm:
HB40 and his handling of Trump were Bruce’s biggest gaffes. His supporters didn’t care about the budget stalemate. They viewed that as him standing up to Madigan but signing HB40 ran counter to his base. He also could’ve figured out a better way to embrace Trump WITHOUT EMBRACING TRUMP. It’s a difficult task but Bruce was about as clumsy as dealing with it as one could imagine.
- Stumpy's bunker - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:11 pm:
A toxic-yet-effective primary message (Jeanne Ives is Madigan’s favorite Republican) will alienate him from a major wing of his purchased party in the election.
Plus, Rauner’s ad nauseum talking points, used mostly as a tactic of evasion & deflection to whatever issue was at hand, has to be transparent even to novice political observers.
- Archpundit - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:37 pm:
538 doesn’t give exact probabilities (that I’ve seen on the race), but Arsenal is correct in that 538 has him with about 10% chance on the main forecast. That said, also a 10% chance of losing by 20% or more.
- Billinois - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 9:42 pm:
Rauner’s fate was likely sealed the day he was elected. This scenario is nothing new: successful businessman thinks he can run a state (or country) the way he did his business, by the force of his will with no thought of compromise. Especially hard when your opponents control both houses.
- Stuntman Bob's Brother - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:51 pm:
Rauner’s fate was sealed the day he took office. His biggest mistake during his initial campaign, was to make it clear to voters that without majorities in the legislature, he would not be able to implement his “turnaround agenda”. In trying to ram it through, the best he could hope for was stalemate, which turned out to be of no value to anyone. Simply put, Madigon beat him.
Oh, well, Illinois is in pretty much the same shape as it was when Rauner took office, except that now the tax hike is permanent, and the price of admission to do business here is going to go up even more in the future with no meaningful reforms having been passed in the last four years. Madiganistan will do better in the short term as taxes are increased (our credit rating will go up initially and the D’s will be heralded as heroes), but the state’s future is less certain long term. If the population accepts the ever-higher tax burden, and new businesses are attracted in, the state will do OK. But if people and businesses keep voting with their feet, it will be the beginning of a new decline. Either way, the next five years or so after a tax hike may be pretty good for the state’s economy. But long term?
- Stuntman Bob's Brother - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 12:38 am:
Sorry, should have been “his biggest mistake was to “NOT” make it clear to voters”
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:30 am:
With me, it was when the so called fiscal conservative submitted details of his first budget proposal. The ridiculous revenue savings were a joke. $2 to $3 billion in pension savings? Sale of the Thompson center?