Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Question of the day
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Question of the day

Tuesday, Nov 6, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your final predictions?

       

80 Comments
  1. - slow down - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:08 pm:

    Dems sweep statewide offices.

    Roskam and Hultgren go down. Dems win the House in DC but lose a seat or two in the Senate.


  2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:10 pm:

    If vote turnout reported by Chicago also includes Early and Absentee, then the overall turnout will be 43-45%, not good for Dems in Suburbs. JB only wins by 12%, not 20% as predicted.


  3. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:10 pm:

    Pritzker wins.
    Raoul wins.
    Hammond re-elected.
    Davis re-elected.


  4. - Juice - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:11 pm:

    JB +15
    Kwame +6
    SDems end up with 40 seats
    HDems end up with 72 seats
    Roskam, Hultgren and Davis lose


  5. - 44th - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:12 pm:

    Those crowds are huge at the trump rallies. Red wave going to sneak up on the country. Illinois sort of on its own.


  6. - Cubs in '16 - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:13 pm:

    Harold defeats Raoul in a semi-upset.


  7. - Buford - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:14 pm:

    Pritzker wins by 10%
    Dems carry rest of Statewide offices
    Hultgren/Roskam lose
    David/Bost are close but win


  8. - Montrose - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:14 pm:

    Dems sweep, though Raoul is closer than comfortable.
    Underwood wins.
    Roskam wins.
    Bost wins.
    Rodney Davis wins.
    Dems take the US House - barely.
    Mendoza finds a way the claim victory and declare her candidacy for Chicago mayor in one sentence.


  9. - Roman - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:15 pm:

    JB wins by 14 points
    Kwame by 6

    House Dems net 4 seats
    Senate Dems 2

    Casten wins
    Hultgren barely survives

    Dems take US House
    GOP holds US Senate


  10. - Nagidam - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:16 pm:

    I say no real big blue wave. The trend is on the Dem side but not a 1994 version.

    But here it is (Illinois Centric):

    -JB wins
    -Harold wins
    -D’s take all other statewide
    -Madigan picks up Net 2
    (Long, Breen, Morrison, Phelps lose)
    -Cullerton loses 1 (Haine)
    -Roskam wins (declared next week)
    -Hultgren & Davis win

    If the big blue wave materializes then the Republican party becomes the Proft party as Brandy & Durkin shuts off the lights.


  11. - Al - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:17 pm:

    The Conservative Party gets “party” 5% plus status. Kelly and Londrigan edge out Bost and Davis.


  12. - Retired Educator - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:17 pm:

    A lot of crying and then the blame game starts.


  13. - Can - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:19 pm:

    Raoul wins by 7.
    J.B. wins by 18.
    McCann gets over 5 percent.
    Roskam, Hultgren and Davis lose.
    Hammond wins, but just barely.
    Bost wins by 5.


  14. - Almost the weekend - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:20 pm:

    Only three Republican seats left in the Illinois congressional delegation. Kwame only statewide race less than double digits.
    Harold runs for congress in 2020 against Betsy.


  15. - Visual Manager - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm:

    Blackhawks will miss the playoffs and go 25-45-13


  16. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm:

    Dems sweep statewides.
    Roskam and Hultgren both lose.
    Madigan gains 7 seats.
    Cullerton gains 3 seats.


  17. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:21 pm:

    JB around 58, Rauner 35, McCann 5, etc
    Raoul 55 Harold 45ish
    Davis, Hultgren, and Roskam go down, but Bost does relatively well

    Go with Juice on the final results in the Lege


  18. - allknowingmasterofraccoodom - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:22 pm:

    Rauner in an upset.


  19. - Soccermom - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:25 pm:

    I’m going to lose the last remnants of my mind.


  20. - Flapdoodle - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:26 pm:

    ==A lot of crying and then the blame game starts.==

    Agree, but seems like the crying and blaming have already started, preceded by a healthy dose of wishful thinking about crowd size, turnout, messaging, on and on.

    But: State constitutional offices to Dems (AG race tight, look here for any upset); in my state House district, Hammond re-elected by slender margin; nationally the Dems have small House majority, Reps pick up two in Senate, Dems win back about seven governorships.


  21. - Get it Solved - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:27 pm:

    Dems sweep statewide offices
    AG race will be within 5%
    JB wins by 12%.
    McCann gets over 5%
    Davis and Bost both win in close races.


  22. - Exit 59 - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:27 pm:

    Senate 59th (R)Fowler by 20
    115 Bryant(R) by 30
    117 Woolard (D) by 8
    118 Phelps Finnie(D)by 2
    Bost over Kelly by 2


  23. - Flat Bed Ford - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:30 pm:

    Roskam loses.
    Hultgen holds on.
    JB wins by less than 10%
    Dem’s take all statewide except AG. Harold wins by less that a point.
    The sun rises tomorrow and Illinois is still in financial ruin.
    White Sox fail to make playoffs in 2019.


  24. - Montrose - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:31 pm:

    Also, I think Danny Davis might just squeak out a victory.


  25. - Just Me - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm:

    Ives claims that if Rauner were a real conservative he would have won.


  26. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm:

    I earlier predicted JB by 7, think he wins by 5.

    Hultgren, Bost, Davis, Roskam R’s 3-1

    Erica pulls out the victory.

    GOP holds the Senate and I think they barely hold the House–barely.


  27. - siualum - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:32 pm:

    Saline County Clerk is indicted.


  28. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm:

    Jesse White will win re-election with a margin of one million votes.


  29. - SW IL - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm:

    Pritzker 51
    Rauner 39
    Other 9

    Kwame in a squeaker with 52%

    Hultgren, Roskam, and Davis lose.

    Bost survives with 51%

    Madigan nets 3
    Cullerton nets 2


  30. - Molly Maguire - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:33 pm:

    Dem rout nationally: House 45+ seats flip


  31. - Jose Abreu's next homer - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:35 pm:

    The nazi guy won’t win


  32. - Some Anonymous Dude (S.A.D.) - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm:

    Pain. And then 4 years of working harder than I should have to for the same amount of pay.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm:

    Pritzker by double digits.
    Raoul by 7
    All statewides go blue
    GA is Veto-Proof… in both chambers, Blue… with cushions
    Roskam loses.
    Hultgren barely hangs on.
    Rodney gets a scare.

    - Norseman - says I’m neck and neck, so I hope to have to wait longer to concede than the others.


  34. - Stagman - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:36 pm:

    Curtis beats Hammond


  35. - Mr Powell’s Shoebox - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:37 pm:

    Dem sweep with the exception of AG


  36. - Practical Politics - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:37 pm:

    Joe Quenneville receives numerous sympathy write-in votes, but fails to match those perennial favorites Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck.


  37. - Sox Fan - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:38 pm:

    For various reasons, a literal Illinois Nazi is going to pick up 15%-20% of the vote for a US Congress seat in 2018


  38. - Angry Republican - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:40 pm:

    Rauner blames Madigan for his loss.


  39. - TinyDancer(FKASue) - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:43 pm:

    The sun will come up tomorrow.


  40. - LoyalVirus - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:43 pm:

    I predict imma be drunk later on tonight.


  41. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:47 pm:

    Adding that the Proft/Rauner effect on the GOP will be full realized as they lose 2 out of 3 of the seats vacated by Andersson, Fortner and Harris.


  42. - Been There - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:47 pm:

    I think J.B. and Kwame are only a couple of points off from each other. The difference will be Rauner will be in the low 40’s while Harold gets more.
    J.B. 54% Rauner 40% McCann and others 6%
    Kwame 52% Harold 46% other 4%


  43. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:49 pm:

    Pritzker wins by a lot, more than 10. I revise my earlier prediction. Does anyone remember in 2014 We Ask America had a turnout model online? You could revise the turnout for the different regions in the state and see the results for the election based on historic voting patterns. Basically, any time you turned the Chicago turnout over like 52%-54% it became really hard for the Republicans to win anything statewide. That’s gonna happen in spades tonight.


  44. - Bruce (no not him) - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:51 pm:

    Nothing changes, nothing ever changes. :(


  45. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:54 pm:

    I like Susanna Mendoza. She is a great at her job but unfortunately she will run for Mayor. At least she will win but we will lose because her successor whoever that may be will not be as good.

    Peter Roskam will win but it will be after a recount. JB wins by 22. Rauner goes mad on State workers until he is out for good. JB wins re-election in 2022 “bigley”.

    Republicans pick up 5 seats in the US Senate. Republicans keep control of the US House by 2 seats.

    Democrats win veto proof control of the Illinois General Assembly in both chambers but this will never be needed because JB with work closely with them and the State will be much better off four years from today.

    Harold wins by 2. Jesse White gets 84% and is more popular then all other Illinois elected officials.


  46. - Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:55 pm:

    ===Lucky Pierre’s resume gets a solid dusting.===

    And new bot software to go full Fox news. Expect to hear more about the Caravan and how actually, Republicans had a great night.


  47. - OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:56 pm:

    Herold in a close one
    Mendoza waits until Thursday to run her first ad for mayor
    All of the WGN viewing community is happy to see the Tile Outlet spokesperson on TV again


  48. - The King Fish - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:57 pm:

    democrats will take control of the House and Senate, and Pritzker wins, Raoul wins, and the other statewide candidates win also. Democrats also win the governors mansions in Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Idaho, Wyoming, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Arizona, Nevada and Iowa. Also Democrats will pick up the Attorney General Offices in Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and etc.


  49. - illini - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:59 pm:

    JB by 12
    Kwame by 7
    Other State wide Dems easily reelected.
    Kelly and Londrigan by slim margins.
    And Jason Plummer will become my State Senator. Willy and I will have some fun here.
    I can’t understand why no one is making odds on the Shimkus race.


  50. - Behind the Scenes - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:08 pm:

    The political ads end and the holiday and bathroom remodelers pick up the slack.


  51. - G'Kar - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:08 pm:

    I am no prognosticator, so I am simply going to predict that I will grade more than my share of poorly written papers tonight while watching the returns.


  52. - Rutro - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:13 pm:

    Bruce does what mike Madigan had never been able to, makes Illinois all blue all over


  53. - anon - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:13 pm:

    Rauner loses, Illinois wins.


  54. - RNUG - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:14 pm:

    Dem’s sweep state level except AG where Harold squeaks it out. Rodney Davis hangs on to win by a fingernail.

    Nationally, GOP hangs on to House by 1 or 2 seats, gains slightly in the Senate.


  55. - Christopher - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:15 pm:

    –All of the WGN viewing community is happy to see the Tile Outlet spokesperson on TV again–

    And the Feldco windows man re-appears on TV, too.


  56. - 5-ohhhhh (ret) - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:17 pm:

    Mendoza by a bunch. Jesse White by the same. That might be the only certainty.


  57. - Real - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:21 pm:

    JB wins
    I’m shocked that many of you think the avg voter is going to vote for JB then switch party and vote Harold. I don’t see enough people doing that for Harold to win.


  58. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:37 pm:

    Dems sweep statewide. Bost is the only competitive Republican to survive. Personally, I’d trade all three to get rid of Bost. Dems house nationally +36, Senate +1.


  59. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:42 pm:

    I predict I’ll be watching something on Amazon Prime this evening.


  60. - iThink - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:45 pm:

    Dems sweep state races. JB by 9, the others by less.

    Roskam wins by recount. Hultgren loses by 3.

    Nationally, the team Red picks up 2 Senate seats.
    Team blue picks up 40 House seats.

    In case anyone doesn’t already know, https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/ has odds of all the races. Fascinating stuff there.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:45 pm:

    ===Jason Plummer will become my State Senator===

    Hope there’s room for the Slurpee and pinball machines.

    Jason won’t do much damage as a freshman. Thankfully


  62. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:48 pm:

    JB wins by 15% - all other statewide Dems win too
    Dems take House by 32 (including all four in IL) and Senate is even - with two contested races that won’t be decided until mid-December


  63. - JoanP - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:52 pm:

    Rauner’s inbox fills up with Italian real estate spam.


  64. - Steve - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:57 pm:

    Democrats sweep pretty much everything in Illinois. Pritzker wins by 12 and Raoul by 6.


  65. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:02 pm:

    Illinois voters support the only term limits we’ll ever need. Buh bye, Bruce.

    Democrat prevail in all statewide races, and pick up Congressional seats.


  66. - Chambananon - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:06 pm:

    Pritzker by 12%
    McCann gets 6% and dooms vulnerable R’s for the next two cycles
    Kwame by 3%
    All other Statewides to Dems by double digit margins

    Bost survives, barely
    Hultgren and Roskam fall
    Davis edges out BDL in the overnight final tallying, despite the yutes coming out in droves

    Total IL House = 71 Ds
    Total IL Senate = 40 Ds
    Total US House = 234 Ds
    Total US Senate = 52 Rs

    Trump will claim victory because “he saved” the Senate. Rauner will claim victory because “he saved” Illinois from four years of complete control by Madigan.


  67. - RNUG - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:08 pm:

    == I’m shocked that many of you think the avg voter is going to vote for JB then switch party and vote Harold. ==

    A lot of us vote for the person, not the party. My ballot had D, R, and marked on it. Obviously,the C was Sam because I couldn’t vote for JB or Bruce. At least I didn’t write in Mel O Creme like one person I know.


  68. - Real - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:18 pm:

    A lot of us vote for the person, not the party.

    -Not enough voters vote that way. I too voted Green Party in the last presidential election bjt I voted dem down ballot. My green party candidate for President lost. I don’t see enough voters voting that way for Harold to win. I also think Raoul ran a campaign lacking in energy. His campaign was very dull but I think he wins.


  69. - Billinois - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:23 pm:

    Pritzker leads a Democratic sweep of statewide offices. Rauner claims to have called Madigan and Cullerton with congratulations.


  70. - Ric Flair Woo Chop - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:37 pm:

    JB wins big.

    Erika Harold wins by 1%.

    SGOP hold all their suburban seats AND pick up Haine’s seat.

    Madigan’s caucus makes it to 70.

    Mendoza runs her first ad on Sunday during the Bears-Lions game.


  71. - Flapdoodle - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:38 pm:

    Saw a (presumably hopeful) post early in this thread speculating that if early voting/mail ballots are included in turnout numbers, the Dems’ expectations would not be met — but in Illinois, those ballots are not counted as part of election day turnout.


  72. - Downstate Libertarian - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:54 pm:

    Dems sweep statewide, though would not be surprised if Harold squeezes out the win. LP gets major party status due to pulling 5% in a down-the-ticket race. McCann adds to GOP pain coming in over 5%.


  73. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 5:56 pm:

    ===Erika Harold wins by 1%.===

    I’ll eat my hat if Harold wins. I mean, I really don’t see it. 4 years of Rauner, 2 of Trump. Both horribly underwater in Illinois. I would say Illinois as a state is at about a D+14 at this point. I don’t see her overcoming it. I just don’t. Half that, maybe.


  74. - frisbee - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:12 pm:

    Dems take all statewide spots. Bost survives but Davis, Roskam and Hultgren all lose.

    Rauner doesn’t give consolation speech but somebody else comes to the podium and says “Madigan” enough times until the room clears out.

    Michigan becomes the first midwest state to legalize cannabis.

    Turnout among young voters under 30 is the highest ever other than in 2008.


  75. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:31 pm:

    ===I’ll eat my hat if Harold wins. I mean, I really don’t see it.

    I don’t either. It’s a bad year for Rs in a state that is Democratic, she’s not outstanding in any way, and she doesn’t even have enough money to be up in Chicago.


  76. - RNUG - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:35 pm:

    == Rauner doesn’t give consolation speech ==

    I just predicted to a friend that Rauner will call JB to concede right after cell calls and congratulates MJM.


  77. - Ric Flair Woo Chop - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:35 pm:

    Raoul is not exactly a dynamo either.

    It will be MUCH closer than people on this site are predicting.


  78. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:44 pm:

    CommadoIves & Katrina new mid morning show on Proft-AM


  79. - West Side the Best Side - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 6:44 pm:

    Trump declares he won.


  80. - Pundent - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 7:32 pm:

    I’ve always voted for the person over the party. Most often with an R bent. This year is different. The Republican Party has lost its way and more importantly its moral compass. I might be an outlier but I felt the only way I could send a clear message was by voting straight D. It pained me to do so.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Feds, Illinois partner to bring DARPA quantum-testing facility to the Chicago area
* Pritzker, Durbin talk about Trump, Vance
* Napo's campaign spending questioned
* Illinois react: Trump’s VP pick J.D. Vance
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller