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Why does this sound so familiar?
Monday, Dec 3, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Chicago Tribune, December 12, 2006…
Daley filed fewer than twice the minimum number of signatures that year and it was a big story. * From January of 2007…
* Now, take a look at how a very similar challenge is being spun this time around…
So, Mendoza is actually starting with more presumed valid signatures than Daley started with in 2007. And Preckwinkle’s challenging success rate will have to be above 85 percent to knock Mendoza off the ballot, while the unsuccessful Walls relied on an 80 percent rate to succeed. Daley ended up with something like 13,300 valid signatures and Walls’ challenge went away when it became apparent that even if he won all of his remaining challenges he still couldn’t succeed. Daley also went on to win in the first round with 71 percent of the vote. * But Mendoza is no Rich Daley and she won’t be getting the benefit of the doubt that Hizzoner did in ‘07. So, Shia is right…
Maybe Preckwinkle gets super lucky and forces Mendoza off the ballot. In the meantime, Mendoza will remain on the defensive as the media takes its shots and as Preckwinkle uses this petition kerfuffle to claim Mendoza isn’t up to the task of being mayor because she can’t even get her election filing act together. And this could all easily drag into February with possible (even likely) court cases, appeals, etc. Mendoza’s campaign claims she has an expert legal team. But so does Preckwinkle. And Mendoza is being attacked by several other candidates over her petition issues, so she also has a serious media perception problem that she needs to deal with ASAP.
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- DuPage Saint - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 11:48 am:
Are challenges combined in some way? If Preckwinkle knocks off say 8,000 and another candidate knocks of 4,000 different signatures is that 12,000 off or does a challenger have to get enough to knock someone off all on his own?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 11:51 am:
Boss Toni.
A reformer she is not, and this is just more evidence that she’s transformed into a classic, old-school Machine boss.
This is a problem Mendoza created for herself by waiting too long to get in the race. Being the last one to collect signatures greatly increases the odds that your signers already signed for someone else. And in the scramble to meet the deadline, corners get cut and some of your circulators flake out and turn in bad (some really really bad) sheets trying to get paid.
Yes, managing the petition process speaks to her ability to navigate complex operations, a metaphor for governing. But the Preckwinkle folks are laying it on especially thick. It has less to do with any lack of organizing ability on Mendoza’s part, more to do with a short calendar.
Toni’s folks should try harder to reign-in their smugness. A challenge is just a challenge. They have knocked her off yet, and as Rich pointed out, history suggests this is very survivable. Ask Mayor Walls how that works.
- Amalia - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 11:52 am:
would be interesting to know the names of all the election lawyers involved. Preckwinkle’s lawyer is a municipal specialist.
- Steve - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 11:53 am:
Preckwinkle has time to run the Cook County board, run for Mayor , and challenge Mendoza’s petitions.. We are so lucky Toni will make such a great Mayor.
- Bobby Beagle - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 11:56 am:
This is probably about the point where Mendoza is having serious second thoughts about having jumped in. A sloppy roll out transitioned into her being attacked on all angles, and all of her overlooked past baggage (death penalty, ticket increases, HDO) coming out big time to haunt her. I literally haven’t seen anything favorable to her in the press or social media aside from mentioning that she is an automatic front runner. I continue to seriously question that assumption.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:00 pm:
Between a bad/horrible rollout and now looking like she doesn’t have her act together on the signatures, Mendoza hasn’t looked up to the job, which frankly, I find pretty shocking as she’s been solid as Comptroller.
As for Toni… major eyeroll.
- Original Rambler - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:00 pm:
I had similar thoughts about the viability of this challenge when I heard Toni was only challenging 14,000 signatures out of 25,000. I’d be a little more upbeat at this time if I was Mendoza.
Toni needs to be careful about the damage this challenge can do to her. Even if successful, I don’t know how she avoids the public image hit. I’m not sure she would be able to survive a runoff with anyone other than McCarthy.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:02 pm:
Nailed it 47. I do hope Susana survives this challenge. When she filed 25,000 I was surprised and concerned. I know how hard it is to do this right, especially if you’re last in.
Cisek is claiming this is a done deal and she’s toast but of course we’d expect him to say that.
But if she gets through this, I still expect her in the runoff and probably to win.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:07 pm:
With Mendoza, this is like her comptroller race against Munger where in the end, a mediocre campaign was bailed out by partisan leanings, and her own personality offsetting a poor campaign.
This is procedural, it’s legal, it’s not political to thought.
Actually… it’s a fundamental… isn’t it?
Then throw in the political, besides the fundamental, the procedural… it’s a mess of a mess.
Two houses on her crew need to get things in order;
Get the challenge rebuke ready to the ballot.
Challenge the media coverage, rebuking it by showing a strong front and winning on merits.
As an aside…
Challenging petitions is part and parcel of campaigns.
Can’t fault anyone for challenging, even not challenging petitions.
You want to roll the dice, functionally with the political weighed, have at it.
- Amalia - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:11 pm:
Odelson is with Vallas.
- Berwyn Optimist - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:52 pm:
is Mendoza still on vacation? I’m having a hard time taking her campaign seriously if she’s on vacation while others campaign and challenge her petitions.
- TopHatMonocle - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 12:53 pm:
Reading the lawyers quote it sounded like they still were reviewing signatures when she gave them those numbers. What are the odds that they reviewed all those signatures at the board and only found 180 that didn’t match the signature with their registration. I would bet thousands more of objections on grounds of signature matching are missing from those numbers. Also Paris Schutz just tweeted that they’re claiming to have found over 1000 that signed for another candidate first. She’s in big trouble.
- Board Watcher - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:10 pm:
Mendoza is finding out that going against Preckwinkle and her crew is much different then the Munger crew. Mendoza just might not be ready for prime time just yet..
Oh and we haven’t even seen what Chewey has in store for her yet, pay back can be real nasty.
- Driving a car - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:11 pm:
Mendoza’s campaign in ‘16 was mediocre? The campaign where she got outspent by a massive margin and won comfortably? Hmmmm
- BC - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:26 pm:
Unless Preckwinkle used an experienced crew of petition checkers who were relatively conservative in the objections they made, an 85 percent “sustained” rate will be very difficult to reach.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:32 pm:
===Mendoza’s campaign in ‘16 was mediocre? The campaign where she got outspent by a massive margin and won comfortably?===
Both Clinton and Duckworth won by 15 points.
By reasonable measure, Mendoza underperformed and ran a mediocre campaign, when Rauner who didn’t spend money on Munger (too late it turned out) and squandered opportunities to win.
Were it not for labor and Dems barely staying home…
That 2016 race was and is a prime example of a poor campaign winning.
- Quimby'sSash - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 1:57 pm:
First the leaked video. Now bare min signatures
- Kyle Hillman - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 2:11 pm:
No one I have spoken to, and I mean no one has thought twice about donating to Mendoza. Heads she is Mayor, Tails she is Comptroller.
That is such a weird talking point their campaign has been floating.
- Driving a Car - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 3:02 pm:
Okay OW: I’ll bite.
If you were CM for Mendoza in ‘16 what would you have done differently?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 3:05 pm:
- Driving a Car -
Use the google key here, I don’t hide my light under a bushel. It was a topic Rich had, often, that race. I commented on it.
I’m also guessing you realize Mendoza underperformed by any measure.
- Groucho - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
To 47th Ward, why does Preckwinkle’s challenging of Mendoza’s petition signatures mean that she is not a reformer?
- 47th Ward - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 4:10 pm:
It’s just another layer of the onion Groucho. By itself, meh. But it fits a pattern that Preckwinkle may not be the reformer she once was, and still claims to be. Like the political lit found in her county vehicle and that sorry debacle of the abandoned car that maybe was stolen, maybe not. Sweeping allegations of harassment by her top aide under the carpet until publicly called on it. Slating judges arm in arm with Mike Madigan, Ed Burke and John Daley. Her protection and apologies for Joe Berrios. The fact that the last time a Cook County Democratic Party Chair was Mayor, his name was Richard J. Daley.
Challenging petitions is just what you’d expect from someone with her background. The funny thing is, she should embrace it and not pretend to be any sort of reform-minded person. Her record doesn’t lend itself to that description.
I’m sure I missed a bunch of other examples too. Could be a fun QOTD.
- Anonymous - Monday, Dec 3, 18 @ 5:36 pm:
@Du Page Saint:
According to the case law, an objection has to be sufficient in and of itself to knock a candidate off of the ballot. This came up in a judicial sub-circuit and an appellate court panel ruled that two separate objectors that challenged different signature sheets could not combine their objections to achieve the results that they desired. The general rule is that objector’s petitions cannot be revised or amended once filed.
The sole exception would be if evidence develops during electoral board case that amounts to a pattern of fraud.