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It feels like déjà vu all over again
Friday, Jan 25, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller * So, apparently, the POTUS has agreed to sign legislation that will contain no money for the border wall and will reopen the federal government for three weeks with back pay for the furloughed workers. Air traffic controllers were calling in sick and IRS employees were refusing to return to work. This thing was doomed from the start. As Bruce Rauner found out, your first big fight with the other party shouldn’t be one which unites the other party. In Rauner’s case, that fight was “right to work.” Didn’t end well. In any event, now you know why Gov. Rauner tried so hard to make sure that all state employees were paid during Illinois’ impasse. He would’ve had to cave within weeks if the courts went the other way. * But will signing this bill do to the president’s hardcore GOP base what signing HB40 did to Rauner’s? I guess we’ll see. While there are many lessons to be learned from the past, history never exactly repeats itself. And national politics are quite different from state politics. And taxpayer-funded abortions and not building a promised wall on the Mexican border are very different things.
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- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:59 pm:
Like the song says, you gotta know when to fold’em. But you really gotta know when to bluff in the first place.
- Hamlet's Ghost - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:00 pm:
Mark Twain (purportedly) said it best:
“History never repeats but it often rhymes”
- Fixer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:00 pm:
I don’t expect his supporters will turn on him quite as harshly as what Rauner’s did. Lots of differences between the two but the biggest is that the people who like Trump really like Trump, whereas Rauner always received a kind of lukewarm reception from his supporters.
- Hamlet's Ghost - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:03 pm:
Pelosi is to Madigan as Coulter is to Proft
Agree or disagree?
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:06 pm:
I don’t think he’ll lose his supporters.
It’s obvious who the problem is and it’s not trump
Doesn’t matter how loud you yell. Only one adult in the room was willing to talk.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:07 pm:
Seen this movie before… as you and so many else did too, Rich.
Now it’s up to the National GOP to see Trump as the “Perfect 10” and “Brave 15” did… and eat it, own it, prepare to move on from it…
The Roger Stone, wall cave, total surrender, Mueller too…
This is the worst day of Trump’s presidency, this date…
That’s saying something.
There are only so many film plots. We’ve seen… this movie before.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:08 pm:
If Pelosi backed down, this “shutdown” hostage taking would never stop.
If there’s going to be a deal that gives the President money to be wasted on a wall, then it’s going to require a path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants in the country now, and not just Dreamers.
My guess is that Trump will never take that deal, so the Democrats will just have to wait until we take back the White House and Senate in 2020 to finally pass comprehensive immigration reform and put in sensible and modern border security.
Walls are so 10th Century.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:08 pm:
===don’t think he’ll lose his supporters.
It’s obvious who the problem is and it’s not trump===
… and yet… Trump caved.
Executives own, governors and presidents. They always do.
- Fixer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:09 pm:
Anon, you’re right on not mattering how loudly you yell. This goes perfectly well to show that.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:13 pm:
Given what happened to Roger Stone this morning, there could be an element of “Hey, look over here!” going on with the timing.
- AlfondoGonz - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:14 pm:
We truly saw a magnificent mind at work, Trump’s that is, during this shutdown. Really, it began more than a year ago, when the Democrats, who had no leverage whatsoever and knew it, offered $25 billion for a wall in exchange for DACA protections. Trump declined, and signed Republican budget after Republican budget that did not fund a wall. Fast forward to November 2018, when the Blue Wave swept the Democrats into control of the House. Trump, naturally, declared it a “near total victory” for himself. When, a month later, it began to dawn on him that that was not the case, he called the incoming Democrat leadership into the oval office, as well as the press, and declared, for all to hear, that he would be “proud to shut down the government,” assuring Senator Schumer: “I won’t blame you, Chuck.”
Later, the House and Senate vote unanimously on a bill to fund the government with the understanding that Dotard would sign it. But Rush and Ann Coulter called Trump a sissy boy, and he stamped his feet and shut the government down. Every suggestion Trump made was declined before the sentences finished vacating his fat mouth. And now, despite declaring many times, sometimes in ALL CAPS, that he would not open the government without his wall being fully funded, today, he opened the government without a red nickel towards his wall.
Donald the Magnificent, a mind to behold, leaving us little people dumbstruck.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:15 pm:
When you’re a president… and air traffic controllers at LaGuardia owned you today too…
- Wensicia - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:15 pm:
He was gonna lose Republican support in Congress, like Rauner did in the GA. Trump gave in before it came to a vote, thanks to Pelosi saying no.
- low level - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:16 pm:
The NYT article highlights the cracks that were developing in the Senate GOP caucus, which are nearly identical (GOP senators from state more reliant on feds than others same as as Reps like Bryant w state facilities in their districts)
Good for them. That takes courage.
If it were a Democratic President or Governor who’s demands kept the government shut down, I’d go after them as hard as I have the Repubs.
We have government for a reason… moreover its simply unAmerican to ask people to work for no pay.
Regardless of the party.
You may be right, Rich - it may have same effect as HB40 did in Illinois. But I’d say to fellow Dems: no gloating. Lets be thankful hard working, front line federal staff will get paid for work they have already done.
The real American way.
- 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:17 pm:
McConnell couldn’t hold his caucus, like Durkin couldn’t hold his. Trump is wearing a collar that says “Pelosi” on it.
- Just Me 2 - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:17 pm:
There are a lot of similarities between the Rauner admin and the Trump admin. Both “rich” Republicans that bought their primary. Both are in their first elected position. Both think they are always right, others are always wrong. Both making the same mistakes.
- Sue - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:20 pm:
This was the Anne Coulter shutdown. Trump is a doofus
- Last Bull Moose - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:20 pm:
Our few remaining Republican Congress Critters need to use Rauner and the wrecking of the Illinois Republican Party as a lesson to their colleagues. If the Democrats get control of White House, Senate, and House in 2020, the Republican Party will have to reinvent itself to be relevant.
Obama could have fixed the immigration problem in his first two years. He chose not to. Democrats won’t make that mistake again.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:20 pm:
===McConnell couldn’t hold his caucus, like Durkin couldn’t hold his.===
Purposely hurting people, some who may be your constituency and supporters will eventually make you cave.
How can you hold people… when those people know they’re hurting people.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:21 pm:
This pain was so needless, just like our state budget crisis. The wall should be taken out of funding negotiations. It’s placed there to hijack the process, just like Rauner’s anti-union demands. Those issues should be debated outside of budget negotiations. If they don’t have the votes, too bad. There weren’t votes for a progressive income tax CA here. There was no budget hostage-taking over it. Proponents just have to wait for the right time (if it ever comes). That’s what happened with SSM and/or MMJ.
Trump said Mexico is paying for the wall, the racist campaign prop that can easily be overcome with ladders and tunnels. To me that means Mexico will have to write a check. I’m with former Mexican President Vicente Fox, I am not paying for the [expletive] wall.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:23 pm:
People, this isn’t Facebook. Up your games or don’t post comments.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:24 pm:
===Pelosi and co. Failed this country…===
… and yet it’s Trump that folded.
You’re in a super minority of folks… and your leader folded, had his oldest friend indicted, even air traffic controllers beat Trump today…
Trump got nothing today except embarrassed.
- Pundent - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:24 pm:
While there may be some parallels between Trump and Rauner there are also some very key differences. Rauner never had enough enablers to carry out his agenda. Trump enjoyed two years but is now running into the same realities that Rauner faced with divided government.
More importantly, Trump has been able to create an alternative reality supported an enabling congress, Fox News and others. Up is down and wrong is right. Facts don’t matter and there’s no accountability for lying. For the base that remains with Trump the support is unshakeable. Rauner never had that luxury.
- striketoo - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:25 pm:
Trump didn’t get his wall, but Nancy got her cave.
- 19th ward guy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:31 pm:
And Michael Bloomberg follows the Pritzker playbook by a factor of 10. Understand some differences. But a lot of similarities
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:32 pm:
==This is the worst day of Trump’s presidency, this date==
I think it was good that he caved. Losing is alright because he didn’t double down and make the situation worse. (Lesson from the Rauner fiasco). Take some money offered for more border security and work with it.
- Boone's is Back - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:32 pm:
Was thinking about this too, so many parallels to Rauner’s hostage situation….
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:40 pm:
It’s not “good” he caved.
Ask Ann Coulter… who demanded he have this shutdown…
“Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President of the United States.”
===Losing is alright because he didn’t double down and make the situation worse.===
Trump is losing the talking heads on the right.
It’s good for the country, but it’s like HB40… the base feels betrayed.
- regnaD kciN - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:41 pm:
Rauner and Trump had no previous political experience. In the private sector, they didn’t have to work with a legislature or Congress to get what they wanted. In my opinion, part of successful governing is the ability to compromise when everyone is not 100% behind your idea(s). They used their “business” expertise to try and get their way not realizing it’s not the same. I hope that Pritzker does not fall into the same trap. Thus far, he’s shown for the most part that he’s not cut from the same silk cloth.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:42 pm:
I think the shutdown will hurt Trump similar to how it hurt Rauner. It forces people really to examine a politician’s positions when their lives are inconvenienced. I don’t think Trump’s southern border crisis narrative will hold up like how Rauner’s Madigan-public unions narrative failed.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:43 pm:
We’ll see if Trump signs on the line that is dotted. He reneged on the last deal that the Senate passed unanimously.
There’s no method to what he’s doing at all, so there’s no point in predicting.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:52 pm:
A comparative essay on the roles media (including social media) played in the state and national standoffs would be interesting. Trump’s behavior was clearly influenced by Fox and the big radio folks. While a lot of media (Trib, notably) banged the drum in Illinois, I get the sense Rauner’s actions were less influenced by media reports than Trump’s are.
- Nick Name - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:53 pm:
===In any event, now you know why Gov. Rauner tried so hard to make sure that all state employees were paid during Illinois’ impasse. He would’ve had to cave within weeks if the courts went the other way.===
I believed then and I still believe that AFSCME erred in getting state employees paid by court order. Had the union sat tight, it would have had a contract and the state would have had a contract, probably in a couple of weeks.
When you’re a union and Rauner is on your side, something is wrong.
- Excessively Rabid - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:59 pm:
==They used their “business” expertise to try and get their way==
A common thread is that neither of these people was a businessman in the sense that they ever know how to come to agreements with others based on mutual benefit and compromise. Rauner bought companies, tore them apart, and sold the pieces, without regard for the interests of anyone else involved. Trump operated on bluster, threats, gifts from his dad, stiffing associates, and lawsuits. His most notable business accomplishment was writing off a billion dollars of investor losses on his own taxes. Rauner could have made a deal many times but chose to demand unconditional surrender. He got nothing. Trump demanded his ridiculous wall and he got Pelosi telling him, “lick the glove.”
- Equal Branches of Goverment - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:04 pm:
Agree Rich - This is not FB
Trump is the sole person in charge of the Executive Branch - The Legislative Branch is equal to the Executive Branch. Mitch McConnell is in charge of the 1/2 of the Legislative Branch (assuming 50 or more Senators agree with him) and Nancy Pelosi is in charge of the other half of the Legislative Branch (assuming 217 or more Representatives agree with her) - and Mitch & Nancy need to agree to in order to have any leverage with the Executive Branch! That is the way our government works.
The Legislative Branch won today. If you do not like it - contact your Senator or Congressional Rep. Because the people who do like it, that is what they did.
To OW and others - agreed, this basic principal is what Team Rauner never understood.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:06 pm:
A big difference for Trump is the national (and international media) digging into his shenanigans.
Other than Capitol Fax along with a rare piece from a few state papers, Rauner didn’t have to contend with those “meddling media kids” (with apologies to Scooby Doo and the gang).
- former southerner - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:07 pm:
And Opera browser once again (at 3:06) randomly decides not to fill in the name blank.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:09 pm:
Nothing has been signed yet. If it is, we’ll ( hopefully) get paid quickly. Also, it’s a CR, and could be deja by all over again on Feb 16th. If not, more pain and waiting on the next tantrum.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:11 pm:
===and could be deja by all over again on Feb 16th. If not, more pain and waiting on the next tantrum.===
Probably not.
Trump caved once. He’ll cave again. Or… the GOP will walk away and do things without Trump.
We’ve seen this movie before.
- lost in the weeds - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:15 pm:
This should not be called a “cave”. It is a pause in the hostage taking until February 15. It is not over.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:16 pm:
OW- I hope so. McConnell, as I said before this all started, needs to realize he may actually need to hold an override vote sometime. I loved that one of his own called him out earlier this week. It was about time( banned punctuation).
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/426922-gop-senator-reportedly-slams-mcconnell-over-shutdown-this-is-your-fault?amp
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:17 pm:
===It is a pause in the hostage taking until February 15. It is not over.===
Ok, fair… but you have to explain how Trump won’t be immediately called out for taking hostages again AND how can he hold out, given we all know what makes him cave to begin with?
Like Rauner, once the break and cave happens, it’s over.
- lost in the weeds - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:17 pm:
OW may be right if Senate says no to the POTUS.
- Maywood John - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:18 pm:
At least in those three weeks they can cram in March and perhaps April SNAP benefits. SNAP was going to crash in the coming days without this.
- Nick Name - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:18 pm:
*and the state would have had a budget.
Sorry.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:22 pm:
Trump made the mistake of governing like he campaigned. But after ginning people up the way he did, it’s hard to come down to earth. His margins of victory were small, so he could be hurt.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:24 pm:
McConnell purposely allowed the Senate to become a less than equal chamber. His stance was that no bill would move forward unless POTUS approved it. That is not co-equal, co-equal is passing a bill and then, if vetoed, voting again to attempt an override if enough support exists in the chamber.
Sure, Madigan holds bills, but not under the order of the Governor.
- lost in the weeds - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:24 pm:
Senate let him call the end this time. McConnell did not call the existing bill.How will they play it next time?
It is never over with Him.
- @misterjayem - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:33 pm:
“McConnell purposely allowed the Senate to become a less than equal chamber. His stance was that no bill would move forward unless POTUS approved it.”
The founders anticipated the danger of an avaricious and reckless President like Trump, but they didn’t anticipate the threat of a Senate Majority Leader like McConnell.
– MrJM
- Sue - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:36 pm:
360- McConnell held his conference just fine. Absent 60 R senators- Trump was never getting his wall. Ask Justice Kanvanaugh whether McConnell can hold his conference. Of maybe ask Judge Garland
- Bogey Golfer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:44 pm:
Part of this “temporary setttlement” could be to make sure the well-heeled can get to Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII without any TSA holdups.
- LakeCo - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:48 pm:
Most of Illinois caught on that Rauner was full of hot air and showed him the door. Why does Trump still have the support that he does? I genuinely do not understand. The man is objectively terrible.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:56 pm:
Glad Pelosi held out on this, like Madigan did here in Illinois, to stop the hostage taking. Personally, im not rabidly against the wall - I think it’s a stupid waste of money, but the Feds waste lots of money on stupid things. The important thing was that dems really could not allow this doofus to think he can shut the government down anytime he decides there is something new that he wants.
It was the same with Rauner, there was no doubt at all in the dem caucuses that if they gave in to Rauner’s demands that first year he’d just refuse to sign the budget next year over something else.
- lost in the weeds - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:59 pm:
Shutdown is not about wall. It is a distraction. Wall was a nemonic device so He would remember to talk about immigration at campaign rallies.The person that came up with Wall idea was arrested this morning by unpaid FBI agents and swat teams and then indicted.
The arrested one is scheduled to be on Bill Marr tonight. We’ll see
How do you know if He will care about base next time? What caused him to cave this time? I know there are stories that Senators yelled at Pence. We’ll see if that was true.
- the other guy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:07 pm:
The president successfully removed Toger Stone from the headlines, that is all this is. In 3 weeks it all starts again, by then americanmpeople will have forgotten Roger Stone was arrested
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:11 pm:
===In 3 weeks it all starts again, by then american people will have forgotten Roger Stone was arrested===
Robert Mueller won’t.
You’re welcome.
- Trapped in the 'burbs - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:16 pm:
Trump could have done this anytime he wanted. Is it just a coincidence that he ended this the same day Roger Stone was arrested? Also, in most cases like this, the government calls the target’s lawyer to set up a time to surrender and agree to bond status. I’m guessing somebody from the prosecution had a sit down with Stone to explain his options. They might even have shown him some evidence. Now Roger Stone has some decisions to make. Cooperating individuals can only get benefit from providing significant help to the prosecution.