Unmined territory for Lightfoot, Preckwinkle
Thursday, Feb 28, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Interesting…
The “green” area on Guzzardi’s map - where neither candidate did well - lines up pretty well with areas won by Susana Mendoza, Gary Chico and Jerry Joyce.
* Let’s set aside Joyce’s wins for now and focus on the two Latinx candidates. From the Center for Illinois Politics…
(E)ight wards in heavily Hispanic areas all voted overwhelmingly for Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza or former Illinois Board of Education Chairman Gery Chico in Tuesday’s election, putting at least 49,000 of votes up for grabs in the April election. Historical data trends show that more of Chicago’s 1.6 million registered voters tend to turn out in runoff mayoral elections, compared to general elections. […]
A new analysis by the Center for Illinois Politics finds the 10th ward on the city’s Southeast Side, the 12th, 14th, 15th and 22nd wards on its Southwest Side and the 30th, 31st and 36th wards on the Northwest Side gave comparatively little support to Lightfoot and Preckwinkle on Tuesday. That makes them prime areas for both candidates to pick up much needed votes in April if they can find a way to resonate with those residents. […]
By the numbers, those heavily Hispanic wards averaged 30 percent turnout in the February 2015 regular municipal election, dropping to 27 percent this year. Across the city, turnout was 34 percent in both the 2015 and 2019 regular elections. In the 2015 runoff, turnout increased to 40 percent citywide and averaged 39 percent in those eight wards. […]
Former city clerk, state senator and 2011 mayoral contender Miguel del Valle, who lives in the 36th ward on the Northwest side, said he saw very little evidence of either Preckwinkle’s or Lightfoot’s campaign in his neighborhood in recent months.
At the same time, he said, votes for Mendoza and Chico were comparatively high due to high name recognition and regular interviews with Hispanic media outlets, such as Univision.
We can’t be totally sure, but since Mendoza and Lightfoot teamed together to bash Preckwinkle right before the first round, the comptroller may wind up endorsing Lightfoot. I don’t know about Chico, though.
Your thoughts?
- Not It - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:02 pm:
I hesitate to even comment because I hate getting involved in racial politics, but it is political reality so I guess I will. I don’t begrudge Lightfoot or Preckwinkle ignoring the Hispanic population when there were 14 candidates and Chico was a relative major candidate.
Now they’ll have work to do to develop relationships in those communities. Obviously, a Chico endorsement would be good.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:05 pm:
Start with a solid 16 and 17 percent, then try to get to 50 percent (plus one) in five weeks.
Game on.
- Irishpirate - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:06 pm:
Methinks it’s going to be interesting.
Is turnout going to be depressed citywide because no matter what a black left of center female candidate will become mayor?
They’re policy positions are largely similar so does it become Lightfoot appealing to N Side voters and Preckwinkle appealing to the S side black middle class?
Which candidate has more appeal to the NW/SW side white or hispanics?
CTU clearly supports Preckwinkle where do other Unions go?
Buckle up because we’re all likely going to be wrong on our predictions.
- Not It - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:06 pm:
And Mendoza!!!
(Gosh, it’s only been 2 days and I’m already forgetting who the also-rans were.)
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:08 pm:
Lightfoot performed strong in Daley precincts
Preckwinkle performed strong in Wilson princints
It will be interesting to see who can appeal to Hispanic voters. Also up for grabs seem to be the city-worker/Joyce voters in the outer wards
- Name/Nickname/Anon - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:11 pm:
Without too much thought or disclosing rationale, here it goes:
Mendoza and Wilson voters trend towards Preckwinkle
Chico and Daley voters towards Lightfoot
Joyce voters stay home
- Fav human - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:12 pm:
Am I the only one remembering Burke was a strong Chico supporter back in 2011? He’s a machine guy and the machine is going to go for TP. they worked with her since she was county board chairman they can continue to do so. L2 is unknown and scary.
They might not like TP but they can work with her.
- Name/Nickname/Anon - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:14 pm:
And if my assumptions are correct, we end up with a “North Side vs. South Side” vote and all its accompanying baggage. Which, if Lightfoot was White, would no doubt be warped by the media into some sort of racial divide.
- West Wing - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:15 pm:
Quick take -
Daley, Vallas, maybe Chico, Kennedy (Chris) head toward Lightfoot
Mendoza and most unions boost Preckwinkle
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:16 pm:
There’s an energy now with Lightford, as an “outsider.” Thus, Lightfoot can win in the green areas of the map. She could also do well in Preckwinkle areas.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:17 pm:
===might not like TP but they can work with her===
I’m starting to hear this, too. She’s the organization, after all.
- Southwest Sider - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:18 pm:
Map is fascinating, but it reflects low turnout and a large field of candidates.
- Name/Nickname/Anon - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:20 pm:
Young Lakefront Liberals - Lightfoot
Old Lakefront and South Side (Hyde Park) Liberals- Taxin
Transplants and gentrifiers - Lightfoot
Unions and Hispanic wards - Taxin
Business Comm. - Lightfoot
White enclaves - Low turnout/split
- City Zen - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:22 pm:
With Guzzardi being a CTU/SEIU company man, will he endorse the more progressive Lightfoot?
- Responsa - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:30 pm:
Since they’ll only be airing for about a month I actually can’t wait to see what the ads look like and how the 2 mayoral candidates try to widen appeal and mine that unmined territory. I think well done ads may make a big difference in both turnout and achieving (at least temporary) coalitions. It’s kind of hard to see how wildly negative ads will work here. We shall see.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:31 pm:
===a CTU/SEIU company man, will he endorse the more progressive Lightfoot?===
You’re not from around here, are you?
- lakeside - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:34 pm:
Yeah, I think looking at how the unions and other pols do their work will be interesting. No one came to my door in the 35th because Rosa has been in with Preckwinkle. But now you’ve got the goo-goos (as a proud goo-goo myself) having to decide between Preckwinkle, who seemed like the progressive backstop against Daley, versus Lightfoot, who seemed like a longshot when everyone was making their primary decisions back in the fall.
Lightfoot beating Preckwinkle in the primary *might* make some folks hedge their bets, especially if the arguably more left Lightfoot is their more natural constituency.
You’ve also got a number of heavy-hitter alderman fighting for their lives in runoffs. They might not want to turn off potential voters by supporting the wrong pick for some of the voters they need. It’s going to be an interesting one.
- Amalia - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:35 pm:
or maybe silent endorsements? from the start, Preckwinkle was the one people said they could work with. but those who might endorse her and want to work with her, have baggage and she has enough baggage.
- Fav human - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:36 pm:
“kind of hard to see how wildly negative ads will work here. ”
To boost turn out of their own side.
I firmly expect to see a steady diet of ads depicting TP with Burke/Rahm as the three musketeers, or some variation of that.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:44 pm:
Kass is touting Lightfoot.
The world is truly turned upside down.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/ct-met-lori-lightfoot-chicago-mayor-kass-20190227-story.html
- Montrose - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:44 pm:
This is all so fascinating. I am really curious what deals will need to be cut to get endorsements/whether Lightfoot or TP will see certain endorsements as helpful or liabilities. How does a Daley endorsement play when you say you are taking on the system? How would a Mendoza endorsement look for Lightfoot as she rallies against TP’s Burke ties?
I love this stuff.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:49 pm:
One thing I find interesting about last Tuesday is that despite the dramatic decline in the black population over the last ten years, three of the four top vote-getters were Lightfoot, Preckwinkle and Wilson.
African-American candidates won 44.3% of the vote, although the city’s black population has declined to 31%.
Much of that, I think, can be attributed to the fact that Lightfoot’s base was the relatively affluent and white North Side.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:54 pm:
One thing I’m pretty sure of: both are going to run as “reformers.”
Lightfoot will go after Preckwinkle for being leader of The Machine (such as it is), while Preckwinkle will try to tie Lightfoot to Richard II and Emanuel.
- Henry Francis - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:56 pm:
Is a Daley endorsement going to be worth much? He had a line on biz dollars but I think that’s all he has.
Just look at the votes he got in the 11th ward. 3255
For comparison sake, his nephew got more than double that. 7366
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:57 pm:
===Much of that, I think, can be attributed to the fact that Lightfoot’s base was the relatively affluent and white North Side===
I think they start from the same base, more or less. Toni did well up north and Lori did well on the south and west sides. The only question now is who can grow more from essentially the same starting point.
- WSJ Paywall - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:59 pm:
=Mendoza and most unions boost Preckwinkle=
Did you just live through the same campaign I did? Mendoza and Preckwinkle clearly loathe each other. Mendoza goes L2.
- mocking jay - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 12:59 pm:
Will Guzzardi MADE these maps?
- Roman - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:05 pm:
It happens every election, so I shouldn’t be surprised, but the low turnout in the Latino wards is striking. It will likely dip in the runoff without Mendoza and Chico on the ballot. There are more votes to be mined elsewhere. I imagine both campaigns will focus on winning “second choice” votes in areas where they did well Tuesday.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:08 pm:
–Just look at the votes he (Daley) got in the 11th ward. 3255
For comparison sake, his nephew got more than double that. 7366–
And the nephew’s name is Thompson.
That still-powerhouse Daley brand, some were telling us about yesterday…..
- SaulGoodman - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:13 pm:
**African-American candidates won 44.3% of the vote, **
I believe it was 52%. You left off Enyia, Ford, and Sales-Griffin.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:14 pm:
–I think they start from the same base, more or less. Toni did well up north and Lori did well on the south and west sides.–
There’s some truth to that.
Preckwinkle finished second in many of the North Side wards Lightfoot won; Lightfoot finished second in all but one of the South Side lakefront wards Preckwinkle won. Lighfoot finished third after Preckwinkle to the wards Wilson won.
- Original Rambler - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:16 pm:
Don’t forget that a Toni win means John Daley takes over as interior Cook County Board President. That’s the Daley consolation prize.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:20 pm:
–**African-American candidates won 44.3% of the vote, **
I believe it was 52%. You left off Enyia, Ford, and Sales-Griffin–
Saul, you’re right. Mea culpa. Thanks for the correction.
- twowaystreet - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:42 pm:
I think business and real estate will get behind Lightfoot. She hasn’t claimed a stance on rent control and she is more flexible on the pension issue.
- Been There - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:50 pm:
======might not like TP but they can work with her===
I’m starting to hear this, too. She’s the organization, after all.===
Not only can they work her they have to work with her win or lose. They don’t want her ticked off at them at the county if she loses and they didn’t back her. Lot of the trade unions don’t like her but they are in a trick bag if they go against. Same with ward organizations that have some of their people in county jobs.
- a drop in - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:52 pm:
“That still-powerhouse Daley brand, some were telling us about yesterday…..”
Daley fatigue.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 1:54 pm:
===They don’t want her ticked off at them at the county if she loses===
Yep.
- South Sider - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:05 pm:
Interesting map. I live in Beverly and didn’t realize Lightfoot came in second in my precinct. I looked at the numbers but Joyce won about half so even Lightfoot at second was a small percentage and I didn’t notice.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:06 pm:
I wonder if the business class comes around to Lightfoot. She is a Mayer Brown partner and maybe a little less tax the rich than Preckwinkle. Lightfoot needs some silent endorsements from Daley and his supporters and some loud endorsements from Hispanic politicians. I can see her getting both.
- Irishpirate - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:24 pm:
Besides pivoting for machine votes who’s better positioned to get folks worried about crime?
Cops don’t trust Honest Toni because of emptying out the jail and they don’t trust Lightfoot because she had oversight of department.
Seems to me Lightfoot should pivot and emphasize her prosecutor background AND the need for “better” policing. Change her position to support the new academy as a way to get that.
Acknowledge that good policing costs money and bad policing costs lives and more money.
Preckwinkle won’t pivot. She only changes her positions if forced to.
Lightfoot had a chance here to make inroads into SW and NW side and also the black middle class areas on S side if she plays it right.
Or she can fight with Honest Toni for the lefty abolish the police voters.
- BossChuy - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:25 pm:
Mendoza may be a nonfactor - Latinos went for her for name rec and identity. If Chuy gets into the race and endorses Preckwinkle or Lightfoot, that might change the game. After losses in the 14th and 25th, Chuy’s camp will be playing smart and want to go with the best ground game so they can get Rafa Yanez elected in 15 and Jessica Gutierrez in 30. Whoever has the best organization will get his endorsement.
Chuy might have lost against Burke and the Solis replacement race, but he still has a lot of love amongst Latinos, and he’ll get more love than Mendoza. Reminder that Mendoza
- Boss Chuy - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:29 pm:
Mendoza may be a nonfactor - Latinos went for her for name rec and identity. If Chuy gets into the race and endorses Preckwinkle or Lightfoot, that might change the game. After losses in the 14th and 25th, Chuy’s camp will be playing smart and want to go with the best ground game so they can get Rafa Yanez elected in 15 and Jessica Gutierrez in 30. Whoever has the best organization will get his endorsement.
Chuy might have lost against Burke and the Solis replacement race, but he still has a lot of love amongst Latinos, and he’ll get more love than Mendoza.
Reminder that Chuy’s organization has traded barbs with Mendoza since she took out Sonia Silva some years back. If Mendoza endorses one of em, Chuy might endorse the other.
- Long Time R - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:31 pm:
Mendoza should push hard for Preckwinkle she is in her 70’s and more than likely will only serve 2 terms at most. Lightfoot on the other hand could easily do 4-5.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:38 pm:
== Besides pivoting for machine votes who’s better positioned to get folks worried about crime? ==
How’d McCarthy do in the election? Oh yeah.
There are probably as many hard core crime voters as there are police abolitionists.
Lightfoot had a good message on police reform. She should keep it up in the runoff. Changing it now would alienate a bigger group of voters to appeal to a smaller group of voters.
- Actual Red - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:55 pm:
@IrishPirate
I think Lightfoot would be taking a big risk by pivoting too hard away from police reform. I think people of many different backgrounds across the city agree on the need for reform and are skeptical of the police department. Those “lefty abolish the police voters” are likely a big reason she made the runoff. I think they are likely to be more loyal supporters than any cops she may try to woo with a pivot towards the FOP.
By the way, neither of the two police reform proposals in the council, nor the consent decree, nor the No Cop Acadamey campaign, has anything to do with abolishing the police so don’t get too stressed out about it.
- JoanP - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 2:58 pm:
Kass touting Lightfoot is a good reason to vote for Preckwinkle.
- Irishpirate - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 3:09 pm:
Actual REd,
I’m not suggesting she pivot away from police reform just frame it differently.
Any sane person knows CPD needs reform, but frame it as better policing instead of the “no policing” many of the hard core lefties are touting.
Emphasize how CPD legal settlements have cost the taxpayers more money in recent years than the academy will.
It’s not an “either or” game.
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 3:29 pm:
Business and the remnants of the machine will go with Preckwinkle - they were already leaning that way before Daley jumped in IIRC. Her strength with the Wilson voters is noted. My best guess is that the Latino vote splits and/or doesn’t have a particularly strong turnout.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 3:41 pm:
===than the academy will===
She came out strong against the academy again today.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 3:54 pm:
I can tell you as a Daley voter, I will vote for Lightfoot. I don’t think I’m alone.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 4:00 pm:
Twowaytreet is right between the two business will side with Lightfoot.
- Hootinnanny - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 4:01 pm:
Bill Daley would love to see his younger stuttering brother John become the next CCB President. Even though John Daley struggles to run his meetings and sounds incoherent, Bill might be able to cut a deal with Preckwinkle. Bill helps Toni and then Toni helps John.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 4:09 pm:
Lightfoot’s position papers are actually rather moderate compared to Prekwinkle. And she isn’t backed by the public employee unions. I don’t see how business would back Toni over Lightfoot. Maybe they stay out, but I doubt it.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 6:48 pm:
FYI, Hootinnanny, John Daley Is older than Bill Daley.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 7:21 pm:
If the Academy will be a done deal before the inauguration, it is in the candidate’s interest to oppose it. There isn’t going to be a backlash for opposing it, and they won’t suffer any consequence like it not being built.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 9:45 pm:
Also, interesting passage from the Chicago Police Accountability Task Force final report, page 13: “The [Police] Academy’s physical space is also woefully inadequate to meet current and future needs.”
- Oh please.... - Thursday, Feb 28, 19 @ 11:47 pm:
@City Zen…seriously? “More progressive”? Do some research.
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 1, 19 @ 8:22 am:
Progressives should be opposed to public employee unions. So yes, Lightfoot not being in the pocket of CTU and SEIU is the more progressive candidate.