A lobbyist who works for a business-related organization asked me a question the other day that I’ve been hearing a lot lately: “Who’s going to be the stopper now?”
What he meant was, who in the legislative process can be counted on these days to help derail bills which are deemed hostile to business interests?
The reason for the question was pretty obvious. Before this year, the last time House Speaker Michael Madigan allowed a minimum wage increase through his chamber that he knew would be signed into law was 13 years ago. And that bill only increased the minimum wage by a mere 25 cents an hour each year for four years. This year’s legislation that he supported will raise the minimum wage by $2.75 an hour in just 12 months starting next Jan. 1 and then eventually go all the way up to $15 an hour.
Gov. J.B. Pritzker set the tone for the spring session by jamming that bill through both chambers and now business types are reeling and searching for a way to at least slow down the rest of this progressive train.
It may eventually happen on its own. Pritzker has a super-ambitious legislative agenda and legislators could simply grow weary. Anyone who’s been around this game a while has seen this play out time and time again.
But that most certainly isn’t the case now. Pritzker has the momentum and he knows it and appears intent on trying to use it to his full advantage.
The simple truth is, business groups lost the 2018 election. Badly. And elections have consequences.
Some folks had argued as far back as last summer that business leaders should step up and take a role in shaping the debate over a potential minimum wage increase.
The wage regionalization argument didn’t just come out of nowhere. It has its roots in a New York bill signed into law back in 2016 which put Upstate and the suburbs on a slower path to $15 an hour than New York City. And Illinois already has mandated regionalized pay scales within its prevailing wage laws. A case could be made that a system which works pretty well for workers in the trades should be good for all workers.
So, the argument went, force candidate Pritzker to address the regionalization concept whenever he traveled to Downstate campaign events. Inject the concept into the broader public debate early in the process, long before any final legislative plans were set in stone.
But that idea was ultimately rejected, either because the groups were dead-set against any minimum wage hike and were fully supporting Gov. Bruce Rauner’s re-election, or out of fear or inertia.
And then Pritzker won by 16 points and interpreted his victory as an overwhelming mandate for progressive change, rather than as others saw it: Yet another repudiation election inextricably connected to yet another national “wave.”
The most dejected Illinoisan on election night in 2016 wasn’t a Hillary Clinton supporter, it was Gov. Rauner. Up until then, he had privately bragged that the Democrats had better get used to having him around because Clinton was going to win and that surely meant a backlash in 2018 and he’d be re-elected.
Oops.
And here we are. Speaker Madigan has not shown any willingness to at least overtly resume his role as the guy who would help out business interests in a pinch. Senate President John Cullerton is a liberal who believes in these things. And once a progressive bill gets to the governor’s desk, he’s gonna sign that thing as sure as you’re born.
If they’re going to have any success at beating back some of these bills, the business lobbyists will have to fully engage in the committee process rather than count on a single person to have their backs.
The simple fact is that some Democratic committee chairs could be more amenable to arguments than their committee membership.
And the governor’s inexplicable lack of legislative staff could work to the opponents’ advantage. Pritzker doesn’t yet have enough people on staff to read all these bills, let alone work them.
Most of the big stuff that gets a lot of attention and is prominently pushed by Pritzker is probably going to fly. Maybe not everything, but most. The rest of the progressive agenda will come down to endless fights in the trenches.
The left has enthusiasm, a governor and a favorable national political climate at its back. The other side has process experience and the natural fear of unknown consequences.
- Not a Billionaire - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:32 am:
They also obsessed about pensions which didn’t seem to be a direct business interest which has earned them hostility. I’m fact they really tied themselves to the whole right wing agenda and now it’s hurting their members.
- don the legend - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:42 am:
The ILGOP has hitched it’s wagon to the big corporations and moneyed interests. All fine and dandy.
The top 1% and the support they bring is nice when your campaign fund needs cash but when your campaign needs votes on election day, not so much.
To get the voters they have to walk a tightrope and not many can pull that balancing act off for long.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:43 am:
First, gear stuff, Rich. Case made, clearly, how it’s gone down and will go down.
To the Post,
===The simple truth is, business groups lost the 2018 election. Badly. And elections have consequences.
Some folks had argued as far back as last summer that business leaders should step up and take a role in shaping the debate over a potential minimum wage increase.===
Raunerism, and aligning with Rauner in 18… you’re on the outside, looking in, because y’all chose.
You. All. Chose.
You all chose Franks, Drury, and Dunkin (remind me who was Dunkin’s largest funding source against a challenger named Stratton) to prevent 71, instead of securing 60.
Pritzker now has 74, that 14 vote cushion, and 40, that 10 vote cushion, to move things, when muscle is warranted.
Raunerites have no statewides, are a super minority in both State chambers, lost 2 suburban congressional seats…
… and they want a “say”… in policy?
Good luck.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:53 am:
OW +1
Adding that business lobbyists better start practicing, “yes, but this will help avoid major adverse consequences.” That entails promising votes. Simply saying “no” will only make it easy on their lobbyists because they’ll be irrelevant.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:57 am:
A lot of people voted for Democrats. Many want to see the minimum wage increased, a graduated income tax, marijuana legalization, etc. The big fear for Democrats is not the screaming of the anti-union, anti-tax “business” groups, but the apathy of the Democratic voter. A lot of voters turned out for Democrats. Pritzker and Democrats have to deliver for their voters. So far they have, but it’s very early.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:02 am:
Curious that many people who should have known better didn’t understand that Madigan had been the backstop for big biz and their lobbying groups for decades.
But considering how those groups backed Rauner to the hilt during his four years of demonizing Madigan, coupled with the election of Pritzker, I doubt Madigan will be going to bat for them in the Dem caucus any longer.
- My New Handle - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:06 am:
“And the governor’s inexplicable lack of legislative staff…”
Has Pritzker been asked why he has this lack? If he has been asked, what was his reply?
- City Zen - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:08 am:
==They also obsessed about pensions which didn’t seem to be a direct business interest==
Check Warren Buffet’s comments from last week.
- DownstateR - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:17 am:
This is the perfect time to push a Progressive agenda. IF there are any downsides to it, it’ll be chalked up to the “Trump Recession”. We’re due one and he’ll take the hit.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to the new laws per se, and I’m not a fan of Trump. You have to think strategically; Democrats can to that, Republicans stink at it.
- A State Employee Guy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:22 am:
Forgive me for not shedding any tears for the pro-business lobby, but Rich, if you would be so kind as to remind your buddies that when people have more money, they will spend it at businesses.
- a drop in - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:49 am:
“But considering how those groups backed Rauner to the hilt during his four years of demonizing Madigan, coupled with the election of Pritzker, I doubt Madigan will be going to bat for them in the Dem caucus any longer.”
Mike Madigan strikes me as someone who has a good memory.
- GetOverIt - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:49 am:
OW, as always, “we’re not worthy, we’re not worthy”
The Sun-Times had a good article on how we can nudge our current flat tax system a little here, and there, and come up with a pretty good solution for our budget woes. Then again, Pritzker would have to acknowledge that he is giving up on one of his biggest campaign promises. More to the point, had business been awake at the wheel - they would be able to get the governor to ease off the gas a little.
- Joe M - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:51 am:
The business lobby has taken such a hardline stance on profit for their members (especially during the Rauner years) that its hard to take them seriously anymore. I really think they would sell their mothers if it meant a profit.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:54 am:
To My New Handle’s point
Where is Pritzkers Comm crew?
Remember when CK would comment on everything?
It just dawned on me.
Why the silence?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:03 am:
- GetOverIt -
Far too kind.
These business industry issues go to the heart of Raunerism, that it’s not a party or business interests, it’s an ideology that infected both… and they lost thinking obstruction instead of 60/30.
Now all Raunerites suffer, elected or otherwise.
Again, far too kind.
- Are you kidding me? - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:05 am:
Rent Control will not work here in Illinois.
Keep the Ban and protect your family’s investment.
- A Jack - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:07 am:
A minimum wage increase only affects that sector of businesses that rely on minimum wage employees. I believe that JB and Madigan are focused on businesses that pay their employees substantially more than minimum wage. The jobs that pay more than minimum wage are those we want to grow in Illinois to get the economy moving. Meanwhile, we can’t leave minimum wage employees behind as the economy grows.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:24 am:
Rauner did no favors to the business community.
DCEO was hollowed out and crippled
for the sake of Intersect
Which failed
Horribly.
Why doesn’t Pritzker kill the relationship
between DCEO and Intersect?
- Colin O'Scopy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:28 am:
Well, for the business community as a whole, these next few months the legislature will be in will be the “witching months”.
What I mean by that is the fact that Mr. Madigan has a history of giving first-year, first-time Governors a chance to move their agenda through the process. If Pritzker puts his shoulder behind particularly heinous legislation that the business community fears, it’ll sail.
Next year is the time you’re more apt to see Mr. Madigan assume the role of backstop.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:32 am:
==Pritzker doesn’t yet have enough people on staff to read all these bills, let alone work them.==
How is this possible, almost two months into the administration? May will get here fast, faster than they probably realize
- Anon - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:34 am:
===Why the silence?===
It’s either professionalism, or they haven’t hired them yet.
- Earnest - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:37 am:
>business lobbyists will have to fully engage in the committee process
I had wondered back then if Rauner supporters would be frustrated with him not locking in some incremental progress rather than going all or nothing, whether taking opportunities in his first spring session or through the grand bargain. Based on the election results, I’ll assume they were. The only real currency they may have at this point is putting Republican votes on bills Democrats would like to be bipartisan, and that probably won’t buy a lot in terms of this priorities.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:54 am:
The business group that will be the stopper. The small to mid size community nursing homes will band together to keep regulations to a minimum. Its been life or death in terms of operating costs and the min wage increases of the future will be darn near impossible to absorb unless medicaid rates are increased. After about a dozen or so closures, eyes will be opened.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:14 pm:
Blue Dog Dem- yeah, eyes will open to the fact of how little caregivers were paid and thus the reason for the abysmal quality of care.
You get what you pay for.
Suck your profit from somewhere else,
Not your caregivers
or your residents for that matter.
Lobbyists should focus on Medicaid reimbursement rates.
Not keeping caregiver wages low and attracting the most minimally qualified personnel
to keep profits high.
Nursing homes and Hospice
shouldn’t be about profit
but about care.
Rant over
- L'homme Arme - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:49 pm:
Anon- I’m going to say it’s not professionalism.
Not trying to be offensive.
I want JB to be successful
Which is why I am
Truly disturbed
by the Pritzker neglect
Neglect in
Controlling/guiding the message
controlling/guiding the process
Controlling/guiding the management workforce
The Pritzker Neglect
- Lack of New Ideas - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:07 pm:
If I were the business community, I would consider hiring some of Blago’s legislative liaisons. If you recall, those liaisons had to work bills bc the Blago-Madigan honeymoon was short lived. The “SWAT Team” taught some seasoned lobbyists a few new tricks.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:33 pm:
Honey. As you know, i am an advocate of a higher minimum wage. But i know 5 star rated homes that dont pay $15/hr. Usually the age of the home is what drives profitability, not necessarily labor costs. That certainly is not always the case, but older homes have costs that newer homes dont. Yes, lobbying efforts are intense to drive medicaid rates up. But that will be a tough row to hoe. In the meantime, there will be homes go out of business. As you know, not for profit homes are few and for between. You and i can wish thats not the case, but its reality. So tell me whats the real world,immediate solution?
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:46 pm:
==Pritzker doesn’t yet have enough people on staff to read all these bills, let alone work them.==
How is this possible, almost two months into the administration?–
If you’ll direct your attention to the twitter feed, the COS is currently busy mourning Luke Perry.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:21 pm:
BBD-being a hospice chaplain for a lot of years I logged a lot of time in nursing homes.
(back of the napkin about 1600 hours)
The vast majority were CNA meatgrinders
churn em and burn em
ie. incredible staff turnover.
It’s a business model built off of it.
That’s awful
because you get what you pay for.
I’ll also give you pushback on your thesis
The new homes, although nicer and cleaner
Still had the same staffing problems.
With only two exceptions
a rural old nursing home had long time staff making decent money in a low cost rural town.
and a high end luxury home which paid their staff well.
Every place else had crappy care
because they were paying poverty wages.
(Remember, I’m a caseworker and see nursing home paystubs every day for food stamp and Medicaid recipients)
And being a CNA is a tough tough tough job.
So yeah, some poverty model homes are going to go down. It’s going to leave families in a lurch.
But the ones that do survive
Will have much better caregivers.
Folks able to survive off their nursing home wages.
Do you want to be cared for by someone on poverty wages?
Also I have no sympathy for nursing home companies.
No tears
Rauner owned a bunch.
There’s a reason he did. Profit
Profit at the expense
of workers
of the elderly and disabled
who got cared for by the lowest paid workers.
Many of them by the way
are the most kind, gentle and loving people
on Earth
Paid poverty wages
Let’s stop that.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:33 pm:
Honey. You wont get an argument from me. But you are not dealing with the reality of the current situation as it is today. There is not going to be a sudden change to an industry driven by not for profits. For profits arent going to have a change of heart. To the post. I believe this industry will demand an ear of the gov. If the elderly are driven to out of state homes. That message will resonate. Your from the metro east. You know people are going to homes in missouri because of both availability and costs.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:45 pm:
wow Word, that was pretty savage. Frankly is kind of strikes me as age-ist.
- jim - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:49 pm:
biz groups will have to pay Madigan a fortune for his campaigns.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:58 pm:
HB, I don’t know how you land there. Check the twitter feed.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 4:14 pm:
Word- I couldn’t find it but it just seems really critical of her and poorly self-differentiated of you. Who cares if she was effected by the death of an actor. It doesn’t mean she can’t do her job. It strikes me as age-ist because it seems patronizing of a younger persons twitter subject. And yes, you may counter that now that she is a Pritzker official she should be always professional. I get it. I admit I didn’t see it but I do get defensive about attacking the generation after me. (I’m Gen-X) Mourning is an emotional response, a feeling, and feelings are not wrong. They are unique to an individual. I’m all for expression of emotion. (as you all roll your eyes) Just like me expressing regret that I pounced. I’m touchy today. Sorry
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 5:15 pm:
==Also I have no sympathy for nursing home companies.
No tears
Rauner owned a bunch.
There’s a reason he did. Profit==
HB, won’t all businesses simply push the costs associated with a min. wage increase onto the end users of their products or services? I don’t think that an increase necessarily means less profit for the business owner, but that it guarantees higher prices for the consumer. The exception to this will be Illinois widget manufacturers who will have to compete with businesses from other states (or countries). I’m not necessarily against the increase, but to deny there may be negatives from it is naïve. And unfortunately, many of those negatives may turn out to be a “surprise”.
- Stuntman Bob's Brother - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 5:15 pm:
Sorry, Anonymous at 5:15 was moi.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 5:35 pm:
StuntmanBob. There are generally three ways nursing homes fill their rooms. Private pay(either out of pocket or nursing home insurance or a combo), Medicaid, or short term Medicare. Depending on the home, some may have a makeup of 100% Medicaid. This reimbursement rate is a fixed daily rate established basically by the feds. It may not be adjusted to reflect the new Illinois min wage . This is where new policy may adversely effect business and service. I hoped someone would have gotten the ear of the new gov. Prior to wholesale min wage revisions. It didn’t happen. He will have to own this decision.
I get the fact that he is fulfilling campaign promise. The post ,you’re on your own,boys and girls, begs the question who is going to be the stopper. I don’t know for sure, but threw out a thought.