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“Unofficial” COGFA analysis is pretty close to Pritzker revenue forecast
Monday, Apr 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller * From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability…
COGFA estimates the governor’s graduated income tax would net $3.331 billion. That’s about $69 million less than the governor’s $3.4 billion forecast, which is only 2 percent off. The analysis was given to legislative leaders and approp people the other day. Discuss.
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- FormerParatrooper - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:07 pm:
At least this Governor has submitted a budget that is close. After the last 4 years, 2% doesn’t seem staggering. Simplistic thought says spread that 2% over the tax rates and you are breaking even.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:20 pm:
Okay let’s just stop
I frankly don’t care how close we are to Pritzkers numbers
We
Have
to
Get
Revenue
into
the fricking Willard Ice building
hook or crook
hell or high water.
This is getting to be a phallus measuring contest
I know how big it is
means a lot to some people.
But God folks
Lets just put it on the board in 2020
and let the people decide
ugh
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:24 pm:
I don’t quite understand the 2% off (in this post) and the 8% off (in the earlier one). The 3.4 billion isn’t Pritzger’s revenue estimate. It’s his estimated increase. That increase is something like 9%. So a 280 million difference in estimated revenue is 9% of 8%, i.e. a .72% difference. And COGFA’s 69 million dollar difference is 9% or 2% or a .18% difference.
Another way to think about it: revenue was about 39 billion*. Pritzger says it will increase to about 42.4 billion, COGFA says it will increase to 42.331 billion, and the study of Bruno and Manzo says it will increase to 42.12 billion. I’m no expert, but can one really expect any more agreement than that from revenue estimates?
*what I found while googling. That’s for 2016. Probably rounded to the nearest billion.
- Anon Y - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:52 pm:
The only increase I want to hear about is the step. Budgeting is based on the assumptions used, so a minor difference is to be expected.
- RNUG - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 2:53 pm:
Close enough.
Admittedly it wasn’t financial, but when I was doing projections I was happy if I could end up +/- 10% two to three years out.
- Michelle Flaherty - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:18 pm:
I look forward to this conversation turning to finding agreement on the very real and lingering problems we would solve with a new tax structure rather than the continued discussion over how many billions more the government will have to spend.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:32 pm:
Last night, i was informed by a friend of mine, that he and his wife were moving to missouri. Net worth $93 million.
- cannon649 - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 3:51 pm:
$3.4 billion coming from today’s top 3%.
- DuPage Bard - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:16 pm:
BDD - so they’re moving to Missouri for the progressive tax rate? Of which they’ll pay a higher rate than currently here in Illinois.
Makes sense?
- PublicServant - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:20 pm:
===Why isn’t Rep. Brad Halbrook doing the job that his constituents elected him to do?===
I’m with you Michelle, but all they’ve got is flak. So, they’ll keep throwing it up there. JB just needs to keep delivering the clear message through the airwaves.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:29 pm:
Dupage. Yeah. 7% vs future 7.95% doesn’t seem significant. I imagine their property tax bill will be reduced by 1/2 but they are young(mid 40s) and angry.
- Whatever - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:56 pm:
So angry that they’re going to move to Missouri and pay higher income tax 2 years before Pritzker’s proposed tax rates could become law? I guess it is the principle of the thing, not the money.
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 4:59 pm:
BDD- the “angry” part is the most important. That is what allows you to make a move whether the numbers make sense or not.
Jimmy John was the same way…he “moved” to Florida expressly because he didn’t like Democratic control. Still see him around a lot, though.
- Anon Y - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 6:47 pm:
Angry because you have 90 millions in your 40s and think that a mom who makes 30 thousands should pay the same taxes that’s not angry that a selfish couple who never learned the concepts of good citizenship. No one likes to pay taxes but we all want services and i for one am tired of society not realizing that then are major needs that can only be solved by government - retraining, education, childcare, healthcare, climate change programs, rebuilding and on and on and yell as you want those takes taxes…. at least when a millionaire pays a little more the next day he can eat not so much for the mom.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Apr 1, 19 @ 7:34 pm:
Anony. I feel like you. But ya know what? They are good folks, and the state is going to miss those tax dollars.
- DeseDemDose - Tuesday, Apr 2, 19 @ 8:53 am:
93 million net worth and moving out of Illinois so they can pay more higher taxes? Sounds like nonsense.