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Former state Rep. Jerry Costello II, D-Smithton, was the first Democrat in the Illinois House of Representatives to declare his opposition to Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s progressive income tax constitutional amendment earlier this year. He represented the 116th House District, in the southwest corner of the state.

New polling shows Costello’s successor would be wise to follow in his footsteps. State Rep. Nathan Reitz, D-Steeleville, could face significant backlash at the ballot box for voting “yes” on SJRCA 1, regardless of his vote on any income tax rates lawmakers eventually set.

Just 22% of likely voters in his district favor Pritzker’s proposal to put a progressive income tax constitutional amendment on the ballot while 57% oppose it, including 44% who “strongly oppose” the measure. And by a more than 2-to-1 margin (41% less likely versus 18% more likely), voters are less likely to vote for a state representative who voted in favor of the governor’s proposed constitutional amendment. Independents are less likely by a wide, 26-point margin (summary memo, topline, crosstabs).

This echoes district-level polling from March that showed strong opposition to Pritzker’s progressive income tax in nearby House districts 111 and 112, which are held by state Reps. Monica Bristow, D-Alton, and Katie Stuart, D-Edwardsville.

And it’s not just Southern Illinois.

New polling in House District 61 – held by freshman state Rep. Joyce Mason, D-Gurnee – shows likely voters by a 14-point margin would be less likely to vote for a state representative who helped to put Pritzker’s progressive income tax on the ballot (topline, crosstabs). Independents are less likely by 14 points (38% versus 24%), Republicans are less likely by 51 points (60% versus 9%), and Democrats are only more likely by 16 points (17% versus 33%).

Methodology: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a districtwide survey of 300 likely 2020 general election voters from May 19-20 in Illinois House District 116 and May 22-23 in House District 61 on behalf of Illinois Policy. N=300 likely voters, 40% cell phone users per district. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 300 voters is ±5.66%.