* Press release…
Moody’s has issued a new report noting that new climate data measuring U.S. county heat stress based on projected relative increases in extreme temperatures, extreme heat days and energy demand indicate the Midwest and Southeast are more exposed than other regions. Roughly $190 billion (21%) of the outstanding $895 billion in debt for all Moody’s-rated local governments has been issued by entities in counties with high or very high exposure to heat stress, according to our analysis; nearly 80% of this amount is in the Midwest and Southeast combined. While heat stress is a credit risk, local governments’ economic and fiscal strengths will help manage exposure to public health, infrastructure and other threats.
The data was gathered by climate intelligence firm Four Twenty Seven, which is majority-owned by Moody’s.
The report’s highlights include:
Counties in central Midwest states will experience the greatest increase in extreme temperatures. Four Twenty Seven projects that the greatest rise in extreme temperatures among US counties will occur in large parts of the Midwest, particularly Missouri (rated Aaa/stable outlook) and western Illinois (Baa3/stable), based on comparisons between the projected 2030-2040 period and a historical period of 1975-2005. Counties in the Southeast will continue to experience a greater number of extreme heat days, but will likely be better prepared given their acclimation to high temperatures.
Outstanding debt of local governments with high projected heat stress is concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest. The Southeast, especially Florida (Aaa/stable), has the most outstanding debt exposed to elevated heat stress, followed by the Midwest, largely in Illinois. Several Northeast states with large amounts of debt outstanding have low exposure to heat stress, notably New York (Aa1/stable) and Pennsylvania (Aa3/stable).
Economic and fiscal strengths support credit quality for many local governments with high or very high exposure to heat stress. Heat stress threatens to cause local governments to pay unanticipated costs for emergency response, infrastructure repair and adaptive strategies. Nevertheless, the Southeast and Midwest each have various strengths that provide a comparatively strong cushion: the Southeast with large tax bases and growing populations and the Midwest with its healthy cash balances and median family incomes.
Well, we do have decent median family incomes, but not so much on the healthy cash balances part.
* Map…
* This is local government debt exposed to high or very high projected heat stress (in billions)…
- RNUG - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:41 am:
While 427 / Moody’s report points out valid concerns associated with possible conditions, I would take it with a healthy dose of salt.
Having done computer modeling of various economic and workflow things (but not climate), I tend to be skeptical of any computer model. Very easy to misconstrue / misinterpert raw data and succumb to garage in, garbage out.
- ClimateChangeisReal - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:44 am:
And it’s only going to get worse each year. This is what the climate change protestors were marching about and what Greta was talking about at the UN. This is not going to stop, we need to be taking major steps like massively cutting our carbon emissions.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:44 am:
Any link to the report? Wondering if they considered the heat sink effect large cities/metro areas have to deal with, because it doesn’t seem to be reflected on the orange map.
- Name Withheld - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:50 am:
Allen Skillicorn doesn’t think we should listen to people like AOC and Greta. Maybe Moody’s will make more of an impression.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:54 am:
===Any link to the report?===
They get touchy when I do that, so no. Sorry. Not my decision.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:57 am:
long term agricultural policy key. can’t keep doing corn and soybeans mainly. have to figure this out. also, hoping pumpkins will still be ok. we are, after all, the highest pumpkin producing state, right?
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 9:58 am:
The world has heat stress, with the highest global temperatures and CO2 levels on record, plus in America devastating weather that includes powerful and destructive hurricanes and massive rainfall amounts. Texas just suffered again because of a tropical storm, with something like 20-40 inches of rain in parts of the state. These are massive costs that are related to our economic activity.
We have in this country a president who denies climate science and strips environmental regulations, and a large segment of the population who thinks this science is leftist propaganda. In Illinois we have Democrats who paid lip service to the people of Du Page County and elsewhere for votes, and now they have to walk the walk in the veto session, in regards to EO. The entire country and world should learn to work together on the planet’s very pressing climate challenges.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:19 am:
Left wing hoax. There’s no climate change. There’s no evidence of climate change. Hurricanes are not a big deal. Everything is fine. We’re all good. Nothing to see here. Move along. Move along.
- Omni present - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:22 am:
Is there any arena or sphere that Moody’s doesn’t assess and analyze?
- Merica - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:22 am:
let’s start in our own backyard
springfield/CWLP entered into a contract with the Viper mine paying almost 200% more (in 2018) for coal than the average rates for midwest basin coal.
we f we just bought electricity on the grid, our utility bills would be 40% less and we’d be saving the environment and the local health effects of that coal pp.
or, even better, we could cancel the viper coal mine contract, close the coal pp, and pay cwlp employees to build and maintain renewable power sources.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:23 am:
==They get touchy when I do that, so no. Sorry. Not my decision.==
What? Is the report public or not? I have never heard of a web site that did not want links to its content to improve its traffic. That’s bizarre.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:34 am:
===I have never heard of a web site that did not want links===
The reports are for their paying customers. I can relate to that.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:37 am:
Climate models that do not go back into the nineteenth century (Abraham Lincoln’s time) to include, track and use manually recorded temperature data of which there are plenty are suspect and useless for projection because there were many documented ups and downs over the past 150 years. Any computer model that does not factor in the heat and drought of the dust bowl years is suspect and useless. Models that track only from the 70’s and 80’s following cooler years in the 50’s and 60’s are interesting with respect to current trends but highly dishonest. Let’s see the darn report, Moody’s.
- Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 11:22 am:
Will we soon be in the land of cotton?
I support vigorous efforts to cool the planet. However, I am not quite so fearful of a warmer world. Humans are very adaptable. Wildlife not so much.
I lived in Jeddah, so 2-5 degrees more in Illinois is not the worst I have seen.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 11:33 am:
Jeez……cripes….deep concerned breath.
well…
glad to have this info…and
crap
- Jocko - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 11:49 am:
Looks like Missouri will become the “Show-Me (the effects of climate change) State”.
In addition to heat stress, sea rise will take it’s toll on a number of red states.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 11:56 am:
===I tend to be skeptical===
Welp, you’re already retired, and by 2030-2040 this will be someone else’s problem, right?
You can afford to be skeptical my friend. Consider that a luxury that not all of us share.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 12:32 pm:
Thanks, Rich, for the info you were able to post:)
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 12:50 pm:
According to an article on a UN study, the last five years are projected to be the hottest on record, going back to 1850. Heatwaves have been the deadliest aspect of this stretch of warming, per the article. Good on the kids going out to demonstrate on this. It will be their world when we’re gone.
- Senator Clay Davis - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 12:59 pm:
Reports like this SCREAM for action on climate change, yet (once again) we’re hamstrung because of our corruption problems. Illinois isn’t like neighboring states: we have double Democratic supermajorities in Illinois and a bunch of realistic Republicans that want action on climate change. But we’re not even seeing debate on an energy bill in advance of Veto because our largest utility is under federal investigation for improper behavior and (pun intended) they’re politically radioactive at the moment. It’s a sad state of affairs, especially when support for addressing climate is a political winner in Illinois as we go into an election year.
- Anotherretiree - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
The models are suspect, but the trend is clear. And its slow enough to do a “generational” adaptation. Send your kids north to college(Cheese land U.). Tell them to look for work there.Lots of A/C will be needed North ! Follow them in retirement.I grew up next to a lake in the 60’s. It would freeze the first week of Dec and thaw the first week of March. 25% of the year we had hard water in central Illinois.No longer. Used to fish in Mercer WI. in the fall. Last week of Sept was first snow. Just checked and no frost through Oct 8 so far. My observation is we have already moved to Kentucky climate wise. Headed to east Texas.And yes, I know it hit -14 in Springfield in January.A quick google check that day showed Springfield was colder than Greenland,Reykjavik,Oslo,Helsinki,St Petersburg,Moscow,Point Barrow. It was only cold here.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 1:06 pm:
== sea rise will take it’s toll on a number of red states. ==
The most drastic predictions are something like 196 feet. Good thing we are at about 600 feet above (current) sea level here in Central Illinois.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 1:13 pm:
One doesn’t need faith in computer modeling to recognize that:
1) the ten warmest years in recorded history are 2016, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, 1998, and
2) the trend ain’t our friend.
– MrJM
Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201813
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 1:55 pm:
Hey Moody’s. US carbon emissions are down 12% from 2005 to today. Tack on another 15% by 2025. But let’s play nice with China who darn near doubles are yearly footprint. Old Blue has his small solar array so let me know who I can sue for damages.
- Enviro - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 2:51 pm:
Here are links to studies on climate warming and natural disasters.
https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/maps/us-warming-by-state
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-10-states-safest-from-natural-disasters.html
- Ok - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 3:32 pm:
And the Governor is……
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 6:40 pm:
- Good thing we are at about 600 feet above (current) sea level here in Central Illinois. -
Typical retired hack. Countless hours researching his pension, zero researching anything that doesn’t directly impact him.
You’re a joke.
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 8:26 pm:
As a fellow retired hack, I will take global warming over forced socialism and redistribution of wealth any day of the week. And I will be damned if I let a 17 yr old change my mind.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 8:43 pm:
Dog, you and the rest of the most selfish generation in the history of mankind should just enjoy your retirement and shut the (heck) up.
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Sep 24, 19 @ 10:24 pm:
Blue, I’m 35. That redistribution of wealth you grew up with ended a couple years before I was born.
You’re a joke also.
- Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 1:28 am:
47th and excitable baby boy. Exactly what I am talking about. Silence those you disagree with. Socialism 101.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:23 am:
Hey tough guy, you take a shot at a high school kid, you better expect some blowback. Go (heck) yourself.
- Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:38 am:
Love it when progressives hide behind kids. Make your own arguments. A kid raised in a rich environment isnt going to lecture me about creating a world not to her liking.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:48 am:
- Blue Dog Dem -
You’re an admitted troll. You’ve told me.
The thing is about being a troll, eventually trolls claim a victimhood if fed.
Congratulations, you get to be a “victim” due to trolling.
To the Post,
It would be a severe double whammy if the deniers of climate change are the same beefers on pension debt (or debt in general) and they have to complain not enough is being done for the debt because something they don’t believe is happening needs cash too. Mind blowing irony.
- Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:52 am:
OW. Who is denying climate change. Not I. Its the garbage thats being packaged with remedies. Take some time and research it. Education is healthy.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:59 am:
“To the Post”, that’s whom i was writing.
I fed you - Blue Dog Dem -
Good luck.
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 8:23 am:
I think RNUG got his worst case scenario wrong as I see possible sea level rises in the order of 8 feet. The reports are in centimeters, so we have to convert.
There has been mixing of wealth redistribution in with climate change by some advocates. I think these are separable.
I do think we have to spend money for the common good. Most of this will come from the wealthy simply because they have the resources needed.
One reason I like this blog is because there is little name calling. There is more focus on issues, often from very different perspectives and often someone with a wealth of knowledge in a particular area surfaces. RNUG on pensions is an example.