42 Comments - Progressive Guy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:25 am: It’s my impression, based on GOP friends and acquaintances, that the current Republican party is not quite in sync with IL conservatives. I think these numbers bear out that claim. Most of the IL conservatives I know tend to be fiscally conservative and focused on pro-business legislation. The religious crusades of the GOP and the war-mongering don’t really play well here. Just an observation. - Fixer - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:27 am: Not overly surprising when as a party the republicans as a party seem bereft of ideas other than kicking Chicago out of Illinois and… voting no on anything that doesn’t help corporations? They need help with a cohesive moderate message and someone capable of delivering that message succinctly. Until some sort of leader like that emerges, ILGOP is going to continue to struggle. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:29 am: Would appear to me, unless the GOP decides to take on the Trump and eastern block factions of their party, they will continue to lose power. Not sure what anyone under the age of 60 would find attractive about the GOP at this time. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:30 am: Between Raunerism and Trumpkins, the marginalization of moderate GOP folks, union folks, college (UIUC) educated or college thoughtful folks… There’s not much the ILRaunerites offer. When you think of Mr. Rose or Mr. Demmer and the Rauner years… this whole region around a university becoming less Republican goes back to the anger Rauner wanted, the division Trump demands… and the polarizing is seen by the vanishing GOP. I’d like to say I’m surprised… lol - efudd - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:32 am: Sadly, the Chicago secession thing plays like a fiddle in Union county. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:36 am: When the ILGOP decides, the HGOP and SGOP decides… whet they all decide to reject Raunerism (change Rauner “appointees“ and thoughts), Trumpkin anger and racism, and want to get to 60 and 30…. … let me know. I’m waiting. When y’all are ready to stop ALL this and build… - Capitol Text - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:37 am: Are UIUC students increasingly registering to vote in Chambana instead of their parents home now? - berywn barry - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:41 am: or voting in both? - NIU Grad - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:42 am: I feel like years of the GOP pessimism about the state has contributed to their growing irrelevance. If your main message is “this place is terrible and everyone wants to leave,” don’t be surprised when those who align with your ideologically are retiring to Indiana and Florida. - Just Another Anon - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:46 am: @NIU Grad, I mean, the messaging is objectively correct. This state is terrible, from weather to taxes, to crime, to corruption, its probably the one thing that all Illinoisans can agree on (that’s why its fairly effective). I know if I didn’t have certain procedural hurdles to anchor me, I’d be looking to move to a state with a better future. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:46 am: === UIUC students increasingly=== “This… is why you fail” The idea and premise that anyone not old, angry, rural, white… The reality is… what does the current ILGOP offer anyone, besides 51st state lunacy, that allowed to fester, to the suburbs and the moderates that don’t identify with the Democratic Party? Murphy and Beaubien, Mulligan and Petersen Now it’s Champaign County. It’s not the college kids, it’s the shrinking of a party, with anger and purity as the benchmarks. With respect. - TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:46 am: Will county recently flipped control of the county board and all county-wide seats to democratic for the first time in - ever. - don the legend - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:47 am: Yeah but if the Raunerites and the Always Trumpsters had their own state think how great it would be. People would be migrating their by the dozens. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:49 am: === I mean, the messaging is objectively correct. This state is terrible, from weather to taxes, to crime, to corruption, its probably the one thing that all Illinoisans can agree on (that’s why its fairly effective).=== (Sigh) Negative can win some ejections, but building a party based on an agreement towards a negative outlook *IS* the current ILRaunerites. “How’s that working out?” Perfect example of why this party has *no* idea what it going to take to build. - @misterjayem - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:49 am: “This state is terrible, from weather to taxes, to crime, to corruption, its probably the one thing that all Illinoisans can agree on” Nope. – MrJM - Alfred - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:52 am: Repubs in Illinois have to at least credit Rauner for making the ILGOP relevant because it appears no one is filling the vacuum after his exit from politics. Not good #’s here for ‘em heading into 2020 - Bigtwich - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:53 am: ==(that’s why its fairly effective)== Exactly where is this message effective? - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:55 am: If I had to live somewhere I thought was terrible, I would find a way to leave it. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 10:55 am: === Exactly where is this message effective?=== It shrunk a party. It was effective at that. - OneMan - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:00 am: == or voting in both? == Guessing you don’t have college kids in your home, that is way to much effort for most college kids. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:09 am: ==I’d be looking to move to a state with a better future.== Bye. Go take your ball and go home. And don’t let the door hit you. - NIU Grad - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:19 am: If the only reason you love your home is its politics, then I won’t shed too many tears if you leave. Plenty of Land of Lincolny goodness for the rest of us. - The Real Captain - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:20 am: Look at McLean County as well. A strong Red county until 2016. 2018 Londrigan beat Davis in the county and the dems picked up 2 county board seats. This year they have candidates in 8 of 10 county board races and 4 of 5 countywide races (most candidates ever). They also have more $$$ (County dem party has $70,000 to what will probably be 25-30K for the GOP). - A Well-Regulated Commenter - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:26 am: DuPage 2016 General Primary 244 Dem 534 Rep 2020 General Primary 306 Dem 364 Rep - Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:28 am: Historically conservatives are usually against burning everything down. For whatever reason the last several years of the Illinois GOP has been dominated by the Burn Everything Down Caucus. Blaming demographics, etc, only helps the Burn Everything Down Caucus. - South Side Lawyer - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:28 am: The trend looks to continue: The shift towards blue will only accelerate now that there is a democratic County Clerk in office. The Democrats in Champaign are contesting races across the board and got organized much earlier this cycle. The incumbent GOP coroner has a strong Democratic opponent in Chaundra Bishop and the judicial candidates are raising significant sums of money. - OneMan - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:33 am: Putting aside the whole ‘this state stinks, this state is awesome’ stuff for a minute. Here is why I think these numbers are not surprising and are the way they are. Candidates for office (besides committeemen) 1 — If you run a Republican in a primary (or a general), you are going to be asked if you agree with the president on this, that and the other thing. Anytime you agree or disagree to a degree, and you are going to get flack for that (it seems more if you disagree) from some element of the party. Who wants to deal with that. 2 — It would seem governing is more fun/interesting when you are in the majority. 3 — When a party appears to be in ascendency it tends to attract more candidates in a location, I think we have seen that in DuPage county. The Committeeman numbers Having been a committeeman (I suspect the longest-serving one who was under 40 in my county when I stopped being one), these numbers make a ton of sense to me. Firstly, what does a local committeeman do anymore? You get to vote for a party chair and a couple of other things. It’s not like there is a ton of patronage anymore in the burbs. Yeah, you might get to know a couple of elected officials, friendly folks don’t get me wrong. But at the end of the day, they view you in no small degree as a resource to buy and sell tickets to events, put up yard signs, etc. It can be fun to be part of ‘the process.’ But you can do most of this without ever going out to get signatures to put yourself on the ballot. The advantages of being an elected committeeman are somewhat limited. Secondly, in areas where there are incumbents with a low risk of not winning re-election, you may tend to attract some ‘unique’ challengers. Do I want to put yard signs for a candidate who complains that they can’t circulate their petitions inside Walmart? One that answers almost every question on a questionnaire from the local paper with an answer about abortion? (really happened) Well, as a committeeman, I was expected to (I didn’t, but I was supposed to). Thirdly, unless you are a full-on Trump supporter (good for you if you are), do you want to be associated with a brand that seems to expect full-on support of the president? Finally, can’t speak for the whole state, but we went from fairly rational and pragmatic to passing resolutions (I was out by then) complaining about GOP elected officials. If you are a committeeman good for you, but I can’t say I miss it. - Pick a Name - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:36 am: Students at UIUC are allowed to vote in Champaign-Urbana. There is the difference. Remember, a recent poll says 58% of millennials prefer socialism. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:44 am: === Remember, a recent poll says 58% of millennials prefer socialism.=== Maybe they don’t like a racist POTUS. There’s that too. - 61820 - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:47 am: Let’s not forget that Congressman Davis has, for years, avoided engaging the citizens of Champaign county, to put it mildly. It should not be surprising that the people have disengaged from the GOP in response. - Steve - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:54 am: I’m surprised that the GOP is doing so well in Champaign County . The GOP doesn’t do very well in areas with universities that get major federal research dollars. - Former DuPage Elected Official - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 11:59 am: And that has already started in DuPage and will continue with even more Dems elected in the next election due to Trump and blind support of Republicans at every level in the State in support of Trump including State Reps & Senators, and County Officials who pledge support to Trump. - Fav human - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 12:03 pm: You know walking the precinct with the earlier primary date is considerably less fun than it was in March. And it wasn’t particularly fun then. October on the other hand was glorious. Nothing better than walking around on those nice fall days. - Jocko - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 12:07 pm: ==58% of millennials prefer socialism.== You mean things like Medicare, Social Security, community college, water/sewers, mass transit? - Pundent - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 12:30 pm: =Remember, a recent poll says 58% of millennials prefer socialism.= The cry of “socialism” has now become the proxy for any services provided by the government. Here’s something to consider. If you’re running for elected government office as an “anti-government” candidate what’s the compelling argument for anyone to vote for you? - Flatlander149 - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 12:45 pm: As a long time resident of Champaign County who has generally voted for Dems statewide and nationally and the GOP locally, I noticed a shift in some of the usually moderate officials to full Trumpers between 2016 and 2018. The Dems had taken a more centrist slant while it was “the party of Frerichs” and gains were made with independents during that time. But then some County GOP leaders and elected officials went full Raunerite/Trumper, causing a backlash in ‘18 even though the Dems were shifting left. That election took out some really good civil servants. I don’t see the compromise style county board coming back either. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 1:00 pm: ==Remember, a recent poll says 58% of millennials prefer socialism.== And 100% of America, the high poverty red states like socialism the most. - Annonin - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 1:26 pm: Yikes… Chambana normally led the nation in voter suppression efforts. They provided best practices for the Confederate states. Lake County not far behind. This shipwreck was a long time coming but never in doubt - TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 2:01 pm: ===It’s not like there is a ton of patronage anymore in the burbs=== Check out plainfield. There was recently a vacant trustee spot open. The village decided not to make a public announcement, or take applications to fill the spot. As soon as the spot was vacant, it was filled by the mayor by the wife of a former trustee. Oh, and the former trustee swore her into office on the spot. No patronage? There is at least one village where there is nothing but patronage. In 2018, there was public uproar due to the mayor not recusing himself from an obvious conflict of interest. He was voting on a multi-million dollar development that involved a family member. He became angry at the suggestion of recusing himself and actually stated “It’s not my direct family so it’s not illegal”. - Say What? - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 3:38 pm: Champaign County dynamics in terms of population and where the political leaning are is fairly unchanged. The donut hole (Champaign-Urbana), is where the University exists leans heavily left. The donut (the outlying areas) lean heavily right, with more production farmers than any other County in Illinois. Until the 2018 election cycle, the Republicans routinely won all County wide seats that fall in said cycle. So predictable was this scenario, that people like Carol Aamons tried to change when the elections were held. The 50/50 split still exists. The student voting, is the swing vote. So even is the voting that the County Board has been a one or two seat majority for years. In three consecutive reorganizations, two or three Democrats would side with Republicans to select a Democrat County Board Chair so that the ultra left would not be totally in charge of an evenly divided County. In Vermilion County (Champaign County’s neighbor to the east), the Democrats held an 18-9 margin on the County Board and held many County wide elective offices as late as 2012. Starting way before the Trump dynamic, the Vermilion County R’s now hold the 18-9 County Board advantage, hold every County wide elective office and wins every contested Judicial race. This is due largely to organization on the Republican side of the equation, excellent moderate State Representatives (Black, Hays, Marron), and a total split among Democrats. Traditionally, Democrats in Vermilion County have been blue collar, union Democrats. The party is now run by Urbana style liberals. A marriage made in hell as it turns out. In short, a D couldn’t be elected dog catcher in Vermilion County and it started 4 years before Trump and included zero Rauner cash. - Token Conservative - Tuesday, Jan 7, 20 @ 7:46 pm: Let’s not forget that Congressman Davis has, for years, avoided engaging the citizens of Champaign county, to put it mildly. It should not be surprising that the people have disengaged from the GOP in response. This probably works in Champaign-Urbana, but the GOP dramatically underperformed in Mahomet and St. Joseph in 2018, which have been reliable Republican precincts. This was a Trump/Rauner debacle and had very little to do with who was on the ballot locally. - Dave W - Wednesday, Jan 8, 20 @ 10:33 am: The debacle with the Champaign County Treasurer shouldn’t help the Dems too much. What a mess she has been. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.