* McLaughlin & Associates does a lot of polling for a lot of GOP candidates and entities, but keep in mind that this is a quickie two-day poll of 300 likely Republican primary voters with a +/- 5.6 percent margin of error. Even so, this lead is way outside even that high MoE…
Survey Summary: The Republican Primary Election – Jim Oberweis has an overwhelming lead.
The results of our recently completed survey in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District show that with only 6 weeks to go and even with more candidates in the race, Jim Oberweis maintains a 30 point lead over his closest competitor. Jim Oberweis is in a very strong position to win the Republican Primary election for U.S. Congress. Almost half of voters polled, 46%, say they would vote for Oberweis, while only 16% say they would vote for Sue Rezin, followed by 6% for Catalina Lauf, then just 2% for both Jim Martel and Ted Gradel.
If the Republican primary election for U.S. Congress was held today, for whom would you vote?
The majority of Republican primary voters in Illinois 14 are favorable to Jim Oberweis, 55%, with only 20% unfavorable. Sue Rezin, who lives outside the district and has said that she will not move into the district, is still widely unknown among Republican primary voters with, 59%, who have never heard of her, only 19% are favorable towards her, 5% are unfavorable, and 17% have no opinion. This explains why State Senator Rezin’s first campaign mail has been an attack on Jim Oberweis.
The vast majority of Republican primary voters in Illinois 14 have never heard of the other three candidates in the race, Catalina Lauf, Jim Marter and Ted Gradel. 72% have never heard of Catalina Lauf, 74% have never heard of Jim Marter, and 77% have never heard of Ted Gradel.
Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each person? If you have no opinion or have never heard of each person, just say so.
In contrast to Senator Rezin’s attack on Jim Oberweis for losing past elections to Senator Durbin, Republican Primary voters are actually more likely to vote for Jim Oberweis because he ran against liberal Democratic Senator Dick Durbin.
Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Jim Oberweis if you knew that in his race for U.S. Senate, he defeated Liberal Democrat Dick Durbin in each county in your congressional district and came the closest of any Republican to beating Dick Durbin?
With only 6 weeks to go, Jim Oberweis is the clear frontrunner in the Republican Primary in Illinois Congressional District 14 with the highest and most favorable name recognition of any Republican candidate in the district. His opponents have a long way to go in a mere 6 weeks in a very expensive media market. Jim Oberweis is clearly the best Republican to unseat Pelosi Democrat Lauren Underwood and win back an important Congressional seat for the Republicans.
Methodology: Republican Primary
This poll of 300 likely Republican Primary election voters in Illinois Congressional District 14, was conducted from January 28th and January 29th, 2019. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. 41% of interviews were completed on cell- phones. These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a Republican Primary election. This poll of 300 likely Republican Primary election voters in Illinois Congressional District 14, has an accuracy of +/- 5.6% at a 95% confidence interval.
* Here are the latest cash-on-hand numbers for the primary…
None of the others had more than $32K on hand.
…Adding… Daily Herald…
This is the first time Oberweis has polled against Lauf, who has found momentum as the “Anti-AOC” candidate on Fox News and conservative podcasts. Her campaign was not impressed with Oberweis’ poll.
“We’re not sure why someone who’s been running for office for decades and loaned his campaign millions of dollars would push a poll showing him below 50%, but we don’t try to understand the tactics of career politicians,” Lauf’s campaign team said in a statement. “We’re seeing overwhelming enthusiasm on the ground behind Catalina’s candidacy.
“She is not only the only candidate who will stand with President Trump and the only candidate who can beat liberal Lauren Underwood, but the much needed new energy and new face for the Republican Party.” […]
“What is ludicrous is that Oberweis and his pollster contrived a question seeking to laud Oberweis for having lost to Dick Durbin,” said a written statement from the [Rezin] campaign. “What is the point? Oberweis lost that race. He has lost elections for this congressional seat twice already. “If a candidate is supposed to get credit for a previous failed campaign then, by all means, Jim Oberweis is the undisputed king of Illinois politics.”
…Adding… Rezin campaign…
Jim Oberweis and his discredited pollster can maintain their self-delusion all they want but reality will once again hit them in the head on March 17 when Oberweis loses yet another election–just like all six of Oberweis’ previous elections for Congress, US Senate and Governor.
We note, the Republican U.S. House Majority Leader lost his primary election in 2014 because Oberweis’ pollster was wrong by an astounding 45 points.
What is ludicrous is that Oberweis and his pollster contrived a question seeking to laud Oberweis for having lost to Dick Durbin. What is the point? Oberweis LOST that race. In fact, he has lost elections for this congressional seat TWICE already.
When a candidate goes out of his way to make one of his numerous election losses into a reason why he is supposedly sure to win this primary, it is evidence of him living in a parallel universe and making the same delusional mistakes that led to his losses in his previous six elections for Congress, US Senate and Governor.
Now that voters are fully tuning into this election, Sue Rezin is excited about engaging primary voters over the next six weeks and to the result on Election Day–just like all of her previous election victories—all five of them.