Fun with numbers
Monday, Feb 10, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times on December 31, 2019…
Chicago has turned around its perennially dismal rate at solving murders, according to statistics released Tuesday.
The city’s murder clearance rate in 2019 was about 53%, according to Chicago Police Department figures. In 2016, the clearance rate was just 29% — an improvement of more than 50% in three years, the department’s figures show.
The police said that in 2019 they “cleared more murders than in any of the past 10 years, with 263 murders cleared.” […]
Anthony Guglielmi, chief spokesman for the police, said the increase in the clearance rate is “the result of hiring more detectives and giving them technology to help with their investigations. The investments we are making in detectives are already showing gains.”
* Frank Main on Friday night…
But, of the 261 murders that the police signed off on as having been cleared last year, 152 were closed “exceptionally” — what the department labels “CCX” for “cleared, closed exceptionally,” meaning no one was charged.
That means there was no arrest in 58% of the cleared homicide investigations.
The number of murder cases that were CCXed has gone up every year since 2016, police department figures show. After the department cleared 70 murders exceptionally in 2015, the number dropped to 39 in 2016, then rose to 87 the following year and 111 in 2018.
The vaunted improvement in the murder clearance rate obscures an important fact: The number of murder cases in Chicago that result in an arrest has gone down, the Sun-Times found.
- Responsa - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 11:52 am:
Clearly, it depends on what the meaning of cleared is.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 12:05 pm:
And yet we’re supposed to trust CPD? They’re making it all up.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 12:19 pm:
It seems like police say they know who killed someone but no charges. I guess they should ask State Attorney why no charges filed. Bad case or no case or what?
- All This - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 12:33 pm:
“ It seems like police say they know who killed someone but no charges.”
For example if the putative murderer is already deceased, they can’t arrest him. This isn’t so unusual in an area with gang wars and vigilantism.
- Anon - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 12:42 pm:
So basically, if you ignore the case and just move on, you can brag that you cleared it….
I am so happy I got out of that city….
- anonymouse - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 12:48 pm:
Foxx is just ending the murder to prison pipeline.
- Logic not emotion - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:02 pm:
Wow! Why didn’t someone think of that sooner so they could have claimed credit for clearing all those cases? Chicago is so much safer now.
- Father Ted - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:12 pm:
The statistical acrobatics performed by CPD brass are really impressive. At some point, the citizenry will realize there is no net underneath.
- R A T - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:19 pm:
Clearance Rate and solving cases are never to be equated in anyway. Whoever is doing this, is being blatantly deceitful.
- All This - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:39 pm:
“ So basically, if you ignore the case and just move on, you can brag that you cleared it.”
Who is saying these cases are ignored? Where is your proof?
- miso - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:50 pm:
CCSAO is rejecting almost one quarter of murders? Because why? Is CPD bringing garbage murders for approval, or CCSAO is setting a bar to help with the crime is down narrative? Doubling the rejection rate in 4 years is worthy of a follow up. Gun convictions may be up, but again so are felony rejections of gun charges.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:53 pm:
===Is CPD bringing garbage murders for approval,===
Unsure, but the city does spend a whole lot of money every year settling lawsuits.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 2:13 pm:
==- miso - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 1:50 pm:==
From the article:
- 17% Solution - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 2:24 pm:
==an Illinois Appellate Court ruling in late 2017 involving DNA testing of semen in a murder investigation. That ruling has sharply limited the circumstances in which prosecutors can pursue murder charges. They’re now requiring more than just DNA evidence to file a murder case.==
So the prosecutors knows these cases will be acquitted based on the 2017 ruling. Are these cases then treated as manslaughter cases? Rape cases?
- miso - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 3:27 pm:
No one asked how many of those rejected murders had DNA as the sole identifier. I’ll bet zero had DNA as a sole identifier. That’s CPD detective school 101… DNA plus something else. ASA’s and PO’s have been following that rule for over a decade. That’s not what is going on here.
- 17% Solution - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 4:05 pm:
== I’ll bet zero had DNA as a sole identifier.==
Well that’s not what Simonton is saying. You have facts to show she is not telling the truth?
- miso - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 4:26 pm:
“Well that’s not what Simonton is saying. You have facts to show she is not telling the truth? ”
I’m asking for follow up, chum. Nothing more.
- miso - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 4:28 pm:
“So the prosecutors knows these cases will be acquitted based on the 2017 ruling.”
I’ll return the drive-by…
Well that’s not what Simonton is saying. You have facts to show ASA’s know it will be an acquittal?
- 17% Solution - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 5:15 pm:
== You have facts to show ASA’s know it will be an acquittal?==
They aren’t prosecuting these cases because the ruling says they can’t. That’s the proof.
- the Patriot - Monday, Feb 10, 20 @ 6:01 pm:
You have to assume a fair amount that are cleared are instances where the victim knew the suspect, family/domestic issues.
That still leaves a majority of the murders with no arrest. Murder rates in Chicago drive the gun control debate in this state and the fact is that we have no idea where most of the guns come from because we don’t solve most of the murders.
- 17% Solution - Tuesday, Feb 11, 20 @ 8:14 am:
== You have to assume a fair amount that are cleared are instances where the victim knew the suspect, family/domestic issues.==
Seems to me those murders would be easier to get evidence for, not harder. There would be more witnesses. So why would they be more likely to be cleared without an arrest?
What is disturbing to me is when the prosecutor says there is not enough evidence to convict, the police don’t get more evidence or keep the case open, they close the case. Why is that?
- miso - Tuesday, Feb 11, 20 @ 9:16 am:
They aren’t prosecuting these cases because the ruling says they can’t. That’s the proof.
That’s as hysterical as it is circular. What case are you speaking of specifically? What if the prosecutor is wrong? Did you know police cannot override a rejection of a murder charge? Did you know they can for every single other offense?
No, you didn’t. As I’ve hinted, there’s more to the story here.
- 17% Solution - Tuesday, Feb 11, 20 @ 2:18 pm:
== What case are you speaking of specifically?==
I was responding to Simonton’s explanation of the specific murder cases not accepted by the prosecutor’s office for lack of evidence.