A glimpse into our future
Tuesday, Mar 17, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Haru Coryne at ProPublica Illinois…
Illinois hospitals face the possibility of widespread bed shortages if the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 continues to spread through the state, according to several scenarios analyzed by Harvard’s Global Health Institute.
Perhaps 1.7 million adults living in Illinois are projected to get the virus over the course of the pandemic, with thousands expected to become sick enough to need a hospital bed, the analysis found. Yet across the state, from metropolitan Chicago to southern Illinois, hospitals lack enough beds, including intensive care unit beds, to meet that rising need.
The model projects how different hospital systems around the country could handle a surge in patient admissions if 20%, 40% or 60% of the adult population becomes infected over 6, 12 or 18 months. The projections are based on 2018 hospital occupancy levels and bed counts, as well as the trajectory of the virus so far. According to the model, about a fifth of adults who are infected will need to be hospitalized.
How soon regions run out of hospital beds depends on how fast the novel coronavirus spreads and how many open beds they had to begin with. Here’s a look at the whole country. You can also search for your region.
In all but the best-case scenario, where the infection is held to 20% over 18 months, more than half of the hospital regions in Illinois would run out of beds.
If 40% of the adult population in Illinois becomes infected with the virus over the next 12 months — the moderate scenario considered by the Harvard team — there will be bed shortages in every part of the state, including places along the border, such as East St. Louis, where people may rely on hospitals in other states.
Click here for more. Half a decade ago, excess hospital beds were seen as a huge problem that had to be fixed.
* Meanwhile…
Expect this to happen in all crucial sectors.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 5:54 pm:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: This future stinks.
– MrJM
- Bruce - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 5:57 pm:
A new paradigm will emerge. More online business, medicine and education.
- Archpundit - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:15 pm:
===A new paradigm will emerge. More online business, medicine and education.
In the right way this could be good, but I think people are overestimating this. After 9-11 business was going to switch to online and predictions about medicine and ed have been made for years.
In person still counts though. Telemedicine can be great for some parts of medicine especially when broadband is available. Online Ed is good, but many students still need in person instruction.
Business relationships still matter and it’s easier in person.
I’ve been working and learning online for the last 6 years so I’m not a curmudgeon about online has limits.
- Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:22 pm:
With the impending shortage of beds, should I get sick now while I can get a bed?
Above is only partly in jest. There are too many unknowns to try to get sick on purpose. But if I get sick at the peak I get a black armband. Already living on borrowed time.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:26 pm:
The quandary we face with so many issues. You push the proverbial balloon at one side, it bulges at the other. Excess beds results in higher medical costs. Disasters and pandemics strain a system restricted to contain costs.
That is why disaster planning and preparedness is so vital. A lot of planning and preparedness money was spent in the years after 9/11. Unfortunately, we’ll now see how effective those plans are and the preparations made to implement them.
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:27 pm:
I expect only the most severe cases will be allowed hospitalization, the rest not requiring mechanical assistance will be isolated at home. Unless the government opens more facilities.
- Ok - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:34 pm:
I, For one, welcome our new robot overlords.
- Huh? - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 6:43 pm:
With tornado and hurricane seasons fast approaching, the US is a natural disaster away from a disaster of biblical proportions.
Combine the covid19 with a Katrina hurricane, a Joplin tornado, or 2019 flooding. The combinations could be truly horrifying.
Has any one started to ask the “what if” question. What if a Joplin type tornado hits Decatur or other large town? What if there is a repeat of the 2019 flooding? Where to house the refugees? How to reduce the potential for a localized outbreak of covid19. Can the local hospitals cope with the injured and sick? How to support the overwhelmed community?
Illinois cannot depend on the federal government for support. That has been made abundantly clear by how the covid19 crisis is being handled.
Spring is upon us. Weather is changing. Tornadoes happen. What if …
Are you prepared?
- SSL - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 7:13 pm:
Yep I’m prepared.
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 8:19 pm:
I am not going to start any b.s. rumors on this blog, but I am certain that there will be legitimate treatments in the not so distant future. Until then, continue to take every precaution recommended.
- former southerner - Tuesday, Mar 17, 20 @ 8:46 pm:
I agree with Blue on this one. Take every precaution possible to protect yourself (and through that to protect the system itself from overload) until better treatment and ultimately prevention is possible. It is much the same mindset if lost in the wilderness where you use strategy and conserve resources from the very first to provide the time necessary for rescue. If people continue to behave in a selfish and short-sighted fashion then those theoretical shortfalls and rationing of healthcare will occur. Social distancing and what seems to some like draconian closures are key parts of mitigating damage.