Congressional roundup
Wednesday, Mar 18, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The venerable Burt Constable…
Setting the stage for what will be one of the fall’s most-watched national races, Illinois State Sen. Jim Oberweis claimed a narrow victory over fellow State Sen. Sue Rezin and political newcomer Catalina Lauf in Tuesday’s race to see which Republican would take on freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood in the Nov. 3 general election. With 87% of precincts reporting, Oberweis had 12,305 votes to Rezin’s 11,154 and Lauf’s 10,075. […]
Until two years ago, the 14th Congressional District had been solidly Republican, with U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren of Plano winning four terms. Before that, an earlier version of the district had been represented for one term by Democrat Bill Foster. Until two years ago, Foster, who now represents the 11th District, had been the only Democrat to interrupt the Republican dominance that had been exerted for the previous 20 years by since-disgraced former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Plano.
* Tribune editorial board...
OK, 6th Congressional District voters, get ready for an intense political journey to November because Jeanne Ives of Wheaton, a firebrand conservative, will take on Rep. Sean Casten of Downers Grove, a high-energy Democrat.
Ives, a former Illinois House member, was on track to soundly defeat Gordon (Jay) Kinzler. But that’s not what makes Ives so formidable. Two years ago she nearly upended Gov. Bruce Rauner in the gubernatorial primary by rallying conservatives who were disappointed in Rauner’s leadership. Her bona fides should play well in the 6th, a longtime Republican district. Casten, a freshman in Washington, was a first-time candidate in 2018 when he took out high-profile incumbent Peter Roskam.
Who’s got the edge in Casten vs. Ives? Hard to say. Casten, who had no primary challenger Tuesday, won in 2018 by riding the blue wave that saw Democrats take control of the House. He also spent nearly $6 million. This cycle, Casten has raised about $2.6 million, according to recent Federal Election Commission reports. Ives has raised about $900,000.
Both of those races will present voters with stark choices. President Trump won the Underwood district four years ago, but times have changed. Hillary Clinton won Casten’s district by 6 points. Ives has a very rough road ahead of her.
* Effingham Daily News…
Mary Miller on Tuesday won the Republican nomination to seek the 15th District seat in the U.S. Congress, according to unofficial results. With 702 of 821 precincts counted, she collected 58 percent of the vote percent of the vote and was declared the winner by the Associated Press over three other candidates.
Kerry Wolff of Altamont had 12.6 percent of the GOP vote. Darren Duncan had 21.6 percent; Chuck Ellington had 7.9 percent.
The primary is the general in that district. Miller is married to state Rep. Chris Miller, a member of the Eastern Bloc, which, as I told subscribers this morning, did quite well yesterday.
* SJ-R…
Springfield Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan is going to get her second chance in two years to take on U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, in a general election.
In the 13th Congressional District primary race, Londrigan, 48, defeated political newcomer Stefanie Smith, 36, of Urbana, by a wide margin.
In 2018, Londrigan came within a percentage point of defeating Davis, who was first elected to the House in 2012. He was unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary.
“I’m excited to take on Rodney Davis,” Londrigan said. “I’m excited to be in a position to stand up and protect people’s health care and be here in this race with my neighbors across central Illinois.”
That’s going to be another barn-burner unless the college students aren’t back in school by November.
* Politico…
And though veteran Reps. Danny Davis (7th) and Bill Foster (11th) won their races with ease, the margins were such that political veterans wonder if they’ll face tougher races next time. Davis won by 61 percent and Foster took 59 percent. When an incumbent falls under 65 percent in a primary, there’s an indication of unrest in their district. Under 60 and you’re in danger of losing your seat the next time around. Davis faced three upstarts in Tuesday’s race, and Foster was challenged by Will County Board member Rachel Ventura.
Davis is currently at 65.6 percent. Kristine Schanbacher spent six figures and finished with just 12.1 percent. Davis is probably fine. Remap is coming up, though, so we’ll see what happens to his district.
Foster is at 58.7 percent. Ventura is a Will County Board member and a Bernie Democrat and her showing was likely a direct result of that presidential campaign and her local work. Foster is most definitely not a Bernie Democrat. As long as he continues to work the district, he should be OK, but he apparently needs to take things more seriously next time around.
* US Rep. Dan Lipinski, meanwhile, is scheduled to speak with reporters this afternoon at 2:30. That’s the same time as Gov. JB Pritzker’s daily COVID-19 press conference, however, so he may alter those plans.
- OpentoDiscussion - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:16 pm:
As to the 14th District.
Oberweis is a bad candidate.
The district is now over 12% Hispanic. A big change from a couple of decades ago. Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Check the exit polls going back to Ford and you will see the data backing this statement.
This should easily remain a Democratic seat now and in the future.
- NIU Grad - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:16 pm:
Wow I did not even know that Foster was being challenged (honestly, I rarely see him in the news and don’t pay him much mind). He definitely needs to take it more seriously next time around.
- Practical Politics - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:27 pm:
Oberweis has considerable baggage. No doubt.
Hultgren was a lazy candidate who lost to Underwood by failing to campaign until the 11th hour.
- Epic - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:31 pm:
Oberweis is the best opponent Underwood could ask for. His history of controversial statements, general lack of political ability outside of knowing how to spend money, he’s even being accused of money laundering during this primary! My biggest concern is the Underwood campaign won’t take him seriously and phone in.
- Highland IL - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:31 pm:
We’re in the 15th District. Sorry, but not expecting much from Miller other than her trying to become a spectacle. The Eastern Bloc is going to Washington.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:33 pm:
The Trib’s take on the 6th would lead you to believe that Roskam wasn’t conservative enough for the district. The extent to which Ives was “formidable” is more of an indictment of the prior governor. Hard to see her message resonating in the north and western suburbs.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:37 pm:
For me, the most fascinating race will be the Davis seat race.
Ives and Oberweis are “who they are”, and will run races to keep their core and try to do that with a knowledge that they need to damage (politically) Casten and Underwood. It’s like each race is vying for the “sharpest contrast” moniker.
But, you look at Davis, who personally campaigned for Trump and has taken time to link himself to Trump, will that district see that connection enough of a bad thing to sway the thin margins Davis enjoys with wins… with POTUS now actually on the ballot.
The remap and the next 10 years of a political base is at stake, with Mary Miller’s (she’s goin’ to Congress) district disappearing first and obviously. The Davis district will be dictated solely if in November it’s still… the Davis district.
It’s going to be tough to see the 6th or 14th leaning GOP after 2021… those districts will evolve and not for the better for conservatives.
- Bigtwich - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:39 pm:
The Eastern Bloc goes to Washington.
I would pay to see that movie, if theaters reopen.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:41 pm:
In the 7th, Kristine was a pretty good candidate, raised money, and had the support of the 42nd Ward.
And she still got less than 15%.
Davis has been a pretty terrible member of Congress, but he’s there until he decides to retire.
Rezin and Oberweiss was fascinating. Rezin seemed to try to outflank Oberweiss to Obie’s right.I didn’t think that was possible. I never thought I would be happy to see Oberweiss win a race but this one was it.
- Rich Hill - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:42 pm:
I am going to go out on a limb and predict health care will be a major issue in the fall campaigns.
- The Captain - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:50 pm:
Wait, I want to make sure I understand the Trib ed board’s take on this …
They think the evidence that Jeanne Ives will be formidable among general election swing voters is that she did well in a Republican primary by challenging a damaged incumbent from the right?
These are some deep thinkers.
- OpentoDiscussion - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 12:51 pm:
Although Illinois has certain Republican pockets it is a Deep Blue state overall and particularly at the national level. And growing more so.
Democrats will control the congressional map and will continue to do so for a very, very long time.
I do not know whether the ILGOP recognizes this reality and won’t admit it or is still burying its head in the sand.
- Fav human - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:03 pm:
Oberweis was lucky to have so many challengers. Rezen hurt herself by saving a lot of her mailings until the last few days before the election. At some point they have to realize the election starts 3 weeks before election day and come out the doors with everything.
- Moe Berg - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:10 pm:
Seconding The Captain’s comment. It’s truly Katrina McQueary’s ed board now.
We’ve got a scientist vs. an anti-scientist in the 6th. Are people feeling like science is important these days? Kinda thinking so.
In the 14th, we’ve got a nurse vs. Chopper Jim. And, it’s a presidential year. Again, really hard to predict how that’s going to go.
- 19th Ward Guy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:14 pm:
Jeanne loses in November and December 1 announces she’s running for Governor. The gift that keeps on giving for Illinois Democrats.
- Blue Dogs are Blind, Deaf, and Dumb - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:18 pm:
Marie Newman currently enjoys a lead of 859 votes. It is hard to know how many mail in ballots remain out and I imagine there are a handful of precincts that have not been factored in yet. It is improbable for the outcome to change but I am not sure it is impossible.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:32 pm:
=== Although Illinois has certain Republican pockets it is a Deep Blue state overall and particularly at the national level. And growing more so.===
This is inherently inaccurate and downright lazy.
The ILGOP has no candidate to take on Raja. You don’t think a moderate GOP candidate can win there? It was the same district of Joe Walsh not too long ago.
How about the 10th, the 6th, the 14th… when was the last time the right candidates ran there?
Conceding seat after seat with terrible candidates and poor choices at the congressional level… you think Trump ideals are traditional Republican ideals or Illinois ideals?
You think once Rauner was exposed and humiliated it was “because Democrat”?.
No.
Rauner was a terrible Governor, by any and all measures, and lost.
There were 8 congressional seats that were GOP
A US Senator, Republican.
Governor, Lt. Governor, Comptroller, heck Tom Cross lost by what amounted to the number of votes for a good size golf outing.
Enough of the “Deep Blue” nonsense.
When the ILGOP decides to run quality candidates to win back seats like the 6th, 10th, 14th… and run someone who can give Raja a race… then they can come back.
You think “… still burying its head in the sand.”
Friend, they aren’t trying.
That’s the rub.
There’re not getting beat, they’re choosing not to compete.
/End Rant
- OpentoDiscussion - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:41 pm:
@Oswego
Well you summed it up well for yourself. Another RANT. Among your oh so many each day. YOU think you are such an expert. I must admit I do not disagree with all your comments and sometimes totally agree.
But some of the rest of us have solid insights as well and they disagree with yours.
As to your litany of past Republican achievements- that are just that PAST.
Illinois used to be a swing state. No longer In the last seven Presidential elections Illinois has gone Democratic even those three of those went nationally for the Republican candidate.
Much of this is due to racial demographics that favor the Democrats. YOU know that.
So get with it. And recognize the new realities.
/End Rant. but only if you do.
- John Lopez - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:48 pm:
It’s been many hours after Sue Rezin, Catalina Lauf and Ted Gradel conceded in the 14th, and Jim Oberweis has still not been recognized by NRCC and Chair Tom Emmer for his primary win last night as he did in the 6th, 13th and 17th.
All 462 precincts reporting, and Oberweis leads by nearly 3 percentage points, yet the AP has not officially “called” the race.
Wondering if NRCC has already written off the 14th and won’t back Oberweis, or want him to get the FEC ethics complaints resolved. Democrats waited until 12:30 to come out swinging at Oberweis.
- OpentoDiscussion - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 1:54 pm:
“Wondering if NRCC has already written off the 14th and won’t back Oberweis, or want him to get the FEC ethics complaints resolved. Democrats waited until 12:30 to come out swinging at Oberweis.”
I was thinking about that possibility also.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:00 pm:
=== YOU think you are such an expert.===
No.
I know not competing is not the same as losing.
You apparently do not.
Five years ago *is* two cycles, not “history”.
You want excuses, instead of the ILGOP doing the work.
The last 7?
The last three had an Illinois native son running, as a Democrat, and Trump is not a moderate Republican this state elects statewide.
The previous 4?
Bill Clinton first beat an unpopular incumbent President, then had Bob Dole, not a great contrast to Bill Clinton.
W?
Al Gore won the popular vote, and carried Illinois.
These are excuses, Illinois aligns with majorities, the GOP here likes to align with rigid policy party thoughts.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:02 pm:
Oberweis?
I think a small part is the party wants Oberweis to self fund too.
If he wins, great, loses, fine, he can fund his own outcome.
- Former Candidate on the Ballot - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:06 pm:
The fascinating number I saw in last nights primary in DuPage is that the Dems had twice if not 3 times the voter turnout in ALL of the races across the county. Take the 6th - DuPage county only - Casten 40K+ turn out - Ives/Kinzler 21K; 45th State House - Pappas 8K+ - Camerer/Ramey - 4k, every race is the same - I hear you OW, but I think it is more than just bad candidates right now.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:17 pm:
===I think it is more than just bad candidates===
Ives and Oberweis won’t help.
Out here, for example, Rep. Kifowit is unopposed.
We’re conceding another seat, no challenge.
It’s not the map, it’s choosing that taking on Kifowit, what kind of candidate can we get, the cash to win…
I also wrote this too…
=== I know not competing is not the same as losing.===
With respect, and I hear ya too. Honest.
- Roman - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:23 pm:
- Blue Dogs are ….
I don’t think you’re figuring Will County totals in your numbers. Newman won the Will precincts by about 1,500 votes. Lot’s of vote by mail left to count and a lot of it will come from areas Lipinski did well, but I’d be shocked if that’s enough.
- john Lopez - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:55 pm:
Given the learning with the 14th district, when it comes to recruiting candidates, it may need to be taught when candidates should NOT be in the race.
The 14th had a total of four NRCC Young Guns, with Oberweis and Gradel as “Contenders” and Rezin and Lauf as “On the Radar”.
The order was Oberweis-Rezin-Lauf-Gradel
By counties, Oberweis won 3 (Kane, Lake, DuPage), Rezin won 3 (DeKalb, Kendall, Will) and Lauf won McHenry, but there, Oberweis beat Rezin by nearly 800 votes.
Gradel came in 2nd in his home Will County, and James Marter came in 4th in his home Kendall County. Jerry Evans and Anthony Catella just took up ballot space.
Would fewer candidates, say the four Young Guns, changed the outcome? Maybe not, or maybe. But as blogger Jeff Ward, and many others called it, Oberweis’ name ID that he started with won him the day, with a little less than 3 percentage points to spare.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 2:58 pm:
===… when it comes to recruiting candidates, it may need to be taught when candidates should NOT be in the race.===
Are you saying people should be denied or discouraged from running for office… to help another candidate?
That’s not very democratic (small d)
Run em all. Said it once, said it a kabillion times.
It’s up to campaigns to win, not limit choices for voters.
- Anonish - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 3:30 pm:
Re: CD7
2 of the 3 challengers ran respectable campaign efforts. The third, Clark, is known from before but it isn’t clear that he learned anything from last time. Who knows what the numbers would have been if it was head to head with just Kina. Hard to see the district electing a white woman.
- Blue Dogs are Blind, Deaf, and Dumb - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 3:31 pm:
-Roman not factoring Will County
Good catch as I did overlook Will County. That Will Count margin of 1,500 votes added to the 859 Newman has in Cook with Chicago should hold up well.
- train111 - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 3:54 pm:
I noticed the same thing as Former Candidate on the ballot.
38806 GOP presidential votes vs 108239 Dem in DuPage. That was unthinkabe a few years back.
The days of GOP candidates ‘mailing it in’ simply because they are the Republican candidate are gone.
With those totals, I predict further losses on their part.
- Deep South - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 4:45 pm:
How about the 12th Congressional District?
- Token Conservative - Wednesday, Mar 18, 20 @ 6:22 pm:
==How about the 12th Congressional District?==
Mike Bost is going to win.