“We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today.”
That was Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton speaking on March 12, when Ohio had only five confirmed COVID-19 cases. One percent of Ohio’s population would be about 117,000 cases. “Community spread” means the virus was transmitted by someone from inside the community, not someone who brought it in from outside.
”Whenever you know of two people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it,” explained Acton’s press secretary, who cited a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, according to the Cleveland ABC TV affiliate.
Illinois has about 12.7 million people, so 1% of that would be 127,000. As of March 20, Illinois was reporting 585 known COVID-19 cases, with five deaths.
”Basically, our people don’t refute their numbers,” said Gov. J. B. Pritzker’s press secretary Jordan Abudayyeh via email.
Whew.
”If the trajectory of cases we’ve seen in Illinois this past week continues,” Abudayyeh said, “a week from now we could see approximately 3,400 more total cases than we have now.” That was on March 19.
”If the assumption is made that 20% of these cases are severe,” Abudayyeh continued, “approximately 650 new cases could need hospitalizations. Again, this assumes the trajectory will continue as it has this past week.”
Gov. Pritzker said last week that his administration had been looking to other states and countries to see what Illinois should emulate and what Illinois should avoid doing. He singled out Italy, saying he’s trying to make sure “we don’t end up in the situation that Italy is in.” Italy’s total number of deaths (3,405) surpassed China’s yesterday. China’s population is just under 1.4 billion. Italy’s is a little over 60 million. So, yeah, don’t do what Italy did.
On March 8, Italy sealed off much of its northern half. The next day, the entire country was put on lockdown. On the 8th, Italy had 7,375 confirmed cases and 366 deaths. By the 9th, when the entire country went into lockdown, the country had 9,172 confirmed cases and 463 deaths.
Italy’s median age is 10 years higher than the Illinois median of 37.4, and that is very likely driving up that country’s death rate since it hits the oldest the hardest. China’s median age is about a year older than Illinois’.
But it’s impossible to compare confirmed Illinois cases and Italy’s because, as of March 20, Illinois had tested just 4,286 people, compared to Italy’s 206,886. Italy’s first confirmed case was on January 31, seven days after Illinois’ first confirmation.
The governor can’t do a whole lot about the testing situation because the federal government has so thoroughly botched its handling of this pandemic. But the state is making some progress. Pritzker told reporters last Thursday that as of Wednesday, Illinois was able to conduct more than 1,000 tests.
“And in just a few days,” he said, the state “will be increasing that to more than 2,000 tests per day.” But even at that rate, it would take 18 more days to catch up to where Italy was at that time, adjusting for population size. (Italy has five times as many people as Illinois.)
The governor is cautiously aggressive. He wasn’t the very first governor to close bars and restaurants and cancel parades, but he was among the first, for instance.
You can almost see Pritzker’s thinking play out if you pay attention to what he says. He telegraphs his actions, which, frankly, is a good thing. He broadly hints that he will do something, which gets everyday people debating the topic among themselves. He does not suddenly announce anything out of the blue. Slamming people with surprises before most are ready could erode confidence. Just look at the mess in D.C.
When it comes right down to it, we have to assume that Ohio is right and this is basically everywhere. We should start behaving like we are already carriers. We shouldn’t have had to wait for a government order to stay at home if we could.
And so, I believe the governor was right to order most Illinoisans to stay home as much as possible for at least 16 days, the third governor to do so.
The only way to defeat this virus is to take away its food; and we’re the food.
- Give Us Barabbas - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:03 am:
Because of the testing being so far behind, we’re driving down a highway with only the rear-view mirror for navigation. Everything ahead is an educated guess, at best.
If I’m driving that car, I’d be riding the brakes. Meaning, the stay home order should probably last longer than initially planned.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:12 am:
I’m going out of my mind because of what is happening in a neighboring town.
A bunch of people are organizing a ‘walk’ where they all decorate their houses, and then get together and walk around the neighborhood to look at all the houses.
You know, because being stuck inside for one day already is too hard.
It would appear that “I’m bored” is an essential activity to these people.
I think this is a reflection on the failure of local leaders to actually take leadership. If you hear it from your own mayor to stay inside unless you are going out to get food or medicine, it’s just not taken seriously.
Their thinking is that ’social distancing’ is some sort of cureall that makes everything better, instead of realizing that social distancing is how to behave to reduce risk when you are taking part in essential activities.
It’s not just from a lack of testing that this will continue to spread like wildfire, it’s because people are not even listening to the current advice crafted to slow this down.
- Perrid - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:20 am:
I know I’m being pedantic and everyone likely knows this, but virus’ don’t eat, or metabolize. They use our cells to reproduce, but individuals virus’ don’t consume parts of us…
Sorry Rich, not trying to be a jerk.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:29 am:
We need more testing so that those of us who test positive can quarantine and bring down infection rates. It’s bad to have to go to work and not know if we are carriers.
- Jocko - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:32 am:
I’ve also heard the virus is like the mob. They can’t enter your life…and don’t want to kill you…unless you let them in.
The problem is that there are a lot of bamboo lounges (or Ramsey’s Sports) out there.
- Bruce (no not him) - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:38 am:
I apologize in advance, but when I read “we are its food” all I can think of.
“Men In Black” movie when Tommy Lee Jones is screaming at the alien “Eat Me, Eat Me”
- Bruce (no not him) - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:39 am:
I’ve been home too long
- Cheryl44 - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:40 am:
Did the Rauners really move to Italy?
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:40 am:
== It would appear that “I’m bored” is an essential activity to these people.==
You know it’s not that simple, Invisible. You have to consider people’s mental health along with the physical, and relying on everyone to go outside for a 2 or 3 hour trip for essentials and then staying inside their house for 7 straight days until the next trip is too much to ask of human beings. If these folks are staying well away from each other, not getting close to the other houses, etc, I don’t see the need to shame them.
- BigDoggie - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:50 am:
I think the governor has done a pretty decent job with everything so far, but wish he’d knock off the constant whining about Trump. We get it - you’d like him out of office. But stop using an unprecedented global health crisis to further your political agenda. Some people seem to think that the president should just be able to wave a magic wand and instantly create all the masks, ventilators, and supplies needed out of thin air and distribute them perfectly to everyone who needs them. Well, breaking news, he can’t - and Obama wouldn’t have been able to either!
- DQCardsFan - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:50 am:
Post-911 we weren’t challenged to sacrifice like our forefathers were in WWII. We were encouraged to “go shopping”. The willingness to sacrifice for our friends and neighbors, for our way of life. That sacrifice in the face of danger was what made them our “Greatest Generation”, and there has always been this hint that modern Americans couldn’t rise to that same challenge. Self-quarantining, sheltering in place, and similar acts are those of that same ethic of sacrifice. If you are joining with the millions who are self-confining, that’s a very patriotic - American - sacrifice. Those who do so should be flying their flags on their homes to challenge others to take up the same cause.
- striketoo - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 10:54 am:
Target aid to people not companies. Nonessential companies can shut down and then restart (or not) after the epidemic wanes. What is needed now is for individuals to have resources for food, shelter and healthcare. That’s pretty much it.
- Demoralized - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 11:10 am:
It’s hard to act like it when you now have the President of the United States wanting to end the social distancing and other public health requirements after 15 days.
- Thomas Paine - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 11:35 am:
Cautious aggressiveness is not what is called for here.
We need aggressive aggressiveness.
Illinois should assume at this point that help is never coming from the federal government.
Governors, lawmakers, big city mayors, medical leaders, energy producers, food suppliers, industrial leaders, tech leaders etc, from Illinois, Ohio, New York, California, Oregon, Washington, Masssachussetts, and any other should form a “Coalition of the Willing” to tackle this on our own.
- Huh? - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 11:46 am:
Social distancing and work from home are an introverts dream.
Now if anyone can give me some tips on how to turn down the volume of a yowling cat.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 11:58 am:
=== yowling cat.===
Catnip. And toys.
- Dotnonymous - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 4:52 pm:
Pet your kitties and your canine friends extra…if you are upset,so are they…good for them…good for you.
- 17% Solution - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 5:29 pm:
== We get it - you’d like him out of office. But stop using an unprecedented global health crisis to further your political agenda.==
Or maybe he wants the equipment he asked for. Florida got all the equipment they asked for. Squeaky wheel and all.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Tuesday, Mar 24, 20 @ 6:54 am:
===Some people seem to think that the president should just be able to wave a magic wand and instantly create all the masks, ventilators, and supplies needed out of thin air and distribute them perfectly to everyone who needs them. Well, breaking news, he can’t===
He can.
Not with a magic wand, Presidential powers. President Trump still refuses to invoke the Defense Production Act to order manufacture of supplies.
- All This - Tuesday, Mar 24, 20 @ 8:24 am:
===but virus’ don’t eat, or metabolize.===
They take over the cell’s metabolism to produce more viruses. Close enough.