* From the governor’s press conference today…

On March, 22, the rate at which are COVID positive case count was doubling was just about two days. By April 1, that rate had increased to around 3.6 days. As of this Sunday, April 12, our case doubling rate had reached 8.2 days.

Similarly, our mortality, doubling rate has increased. At the beginning of April it was at 2.5 days, and it is now at 5.5 days.

To be clear, there is nothing good about twice as many people having this virus, or worse, dying from it. No matter how long the increase takes. But we won’t get to zero cases overnight. The fact that our doubling rate continues to increase in every metric is a clear demonstration that there is a deceleration of virus transmission. We are in fact, bending the curve.

* Hospitalization-related numbers…

Perhaps the most accurate leading indicator of our progress is our hospitalization data. Right now, if someone is sick enough with a respiratory illness to need hospital care, then it’s likely that that person has COVID-19, whether or not they have been tested.

On April 6, the number of known COVID patients and suspected COVID patients totaled 3680. On April 10, that number was 4020. On April 11, it was 4104. On April 12 4091. As of today, it was 4283.

As you can see these numbers are increasing. However, so too is our overall hospital capacity. Our hospitals are working every day to add beds. In August of 2019 just to give you a number, way before COVID-19 came to us, our state averaged about 25,500, total beds. As of this weekend, our total bed count is about 30,002.

Other important metrics are ICU beds and ventilators. A week ago, COVID patients as a percentage of ICU beds increased from 35% to 43%, an eight percentage point jump. COVID patients today occupy 40% of our total ICU beds, that’s down from the 43% a week ago.

In the same timeframe, COVID patients as a percentage of total ventilators grew from 24 to 29% of five point jump in a week. COVID patients today occupy 25% of our total ventilators both of those numbers are evidence of positive trends, a declining number percentage of ICU beds, occupied by COVID patients, and the declining number of ventilators occupied by COVID patients. Additionally, our total ventilator numbers are starting to reflect the additional ventilators that we’ve acquired now totaling more than 3000 across the state. Overall these numbers are indicators of our growing ability to manage capacity within the healthcare systems across Illinois.

Remember to pardon all transcription errors.

* More on hospitals…

No region is currently below 15% availability in any of these metrics, but there are individual hospitals that are operating at or near max capacity. Right now hospitals are by and large doing a great job of directing patients, amongst themselves, but if it becomes necessary I will not hesitate to step in to direct ICU patients to hospitals that are more available.

…Adding… From a press release…

* Lots of people coming in…

I am so deeply thankful for the now 3600 retired and out of state healthcare professionals who have applied to join the Illinois fight against COVID-19.

* Dr. Ezike then talked about recoveries…

We sent out these electronic surveys to people to catch their recovery rate at seven days, 14 days, 21 days and 28 days. As you can imagine people are getting better with time.

For people who don’t respond to this survey, we have a staff of 23 individuals who are calling to follow up. We’re making about 300 calls a day to people who didn’t respond, of which approximately half of those results in a successful interview.

So to share those results, I am happy to report that of the people who were surveyed at seven days, 44% have indicated recovery. At 14 days, the number increases to 50%. At 21 days after testing positive, we have 61% of people who responded, either to the initial electronic survey or the follow up telephone call, that they no longer have symptoms. And at 28 days, 69% of people reported no COVID-19 symptoms, and feeling much better. So again, people are getting better people recover from this disease.

It is important to note that not everyone responded to the survey so potentially the averages could be higher.

* On to questions for the governor. Asked about regional cooperation agreements with other governors…

I began this conversation really late last week with some of the East Coast governors. And then, over the last few days with my counterparts in Midwest states surrounding us.

Our goal of course for this is to start to think about what are the preconditions for beginning to allow certain kinds of businesses to open their doors again, to expand the definition of those who can work are those businesses they can have their doors open.

And again, as I’ve said the preconditions that I think are appropriate are a lot testing, tracing and treating. And then I would add to that the availability of PPE to the entire population, even those who might not be able to afford their own PPE so those things together I think are the preconditions and you know there are a lot of other things to discuss.

The governors that I’ve spoken with have been very frankly very positive about this idea. They’ve all been thinking about it individually for their states and understand that speaking with a common voice might be a positive move.

* Is this in part in response to the president saying that he’s going to be the one to dictate everything and he’s in control, if you will…

No. I in fact we’ve been all of us thinking about what’s next. We have our stay at home order in place that the closing of schools and so on. What comes next, what are the things that trigger a change. And you know how much you know how much can we do and how fast can we do it all of that I might add is going to be dependent upon what we hear from the epidemiologists and the doctors.

The governor was asked yet again why he didn’t shut down the primary election and he responded yet again that he had no constitutional authority to do so.

* Another part of that question was poll workers reporting that they had no sanitation supplies or related on primary day…

We were assured by the boards of elections that in fact they had the PPE or the sanitary devices that they needed. And we were willing to provide them. Indeed we were even willing to provide poll workers for them … At least in Chicago, that was rejected. And so, you know, that was their choice. They felt like they had a handle on it.

* Wondering if you can break it down by infection rate relative to the number of residents in Illinois…

I mean, it’s very hard to say because we aren’t testing everybody in the state of Illinois. What we know is that the percentage of people who are tested.

Let me back up just for everybody who hasn’t followed this. We’re testing people who show some symptoms of COVID-19. […]

It might be more useful to look at the broad global data that’s available and I’ll just share that with you as well. About 80% of people who get COVID-19, and by the way we believe everybody is susceptible to COVID-19. Period. End of sentence. You either have had it already, or you’re going to get it, unless we have a vaccine that prevents you from getting it which we don’t currently. So 80% of people who get COVID-19 recover just fine, don’t require hospitalization or anything of a significant medical intervention nature. About 19% require some further hospitalization or other intervention. And then about 1% unfortunately about point seven to 1% pass away, in, in many cases because they have either a comorbidity or they’re in an age bracket that is most susceptible.

* Another question about regional cooperation…

Look the conversations are very much, very similar that each of us might have, a slightly new idea to offer in the conversation. But when I talk about testing tracing and treating everybody understands exactly what that means. And that we in fact need to do that so widespread testing. So for example I talked to a governor, who’s talking about buying a commercial lab that exists in their state and converting it entirely to testing for COVID-19, and it would yield for that Governor 10s of thousands of tests on a daily basis. So that’s something they’re looking at to deal with the testing part. I am looking significantly at not only the increases in testing that we’ve begun to, to see at our seat labs and working with our hospitals, but on the tracing part, looking at models like what they are doing in Massachusetts, where they have a, you know, a case tracing collaborative that exists or at least that they’ve stood up but you know it’s just getting going where they’re just using good old fashioned shoe leather, to make sure and call every single person that may have come in contact with somebody who has COVID-19.

* Asked about Leader Brady’s request for a leaders meeting…

First of all I speak with the leaders all the time. I think every one of the leaders would tell you that I’ve had multiple conversations with them. And I’m always happy to have a, you know, we can convene a zoom conference or teleconference all of that. I’m happy to do any of that anytime with any of them. But I have been very communicative with each and every one of them. I’ve spoken with every leader probably, on average, once a week, maybe, maybe once every two weeks it’s hard to tell, but it’s usually we have an agenda of things that we’re discussing each of us, and we’re trying to make sure that we can keep things moving forward, those who might suggest that we haven’t been having those conversations or not paying attention to the fact that the leaders and I and the fact that I pick up the phone, virtually every day I call multiple legislators on both sides of the aisle to make sure that I’m communicating with them but even more importantly listening to them about concerns that their constituents may have and what we could do in the executive branch to make their their lives easier.

* Now on to a few questions from reporters trying to get him to whack the president. Do you worry that the criticism of the Trump administration could come with retribution that prevents Illinois from getting PPE and other help in the COVID battle?…

Well I compliment the administration when they do things right, when they deliver on their promises, and I’ve been critical when they don’t. And I think that is the proper way for me to operate I’m defending and working on behalf of the people of Illinois. And each time I have been critical we’ve actually received more from the federal government. And each time I’ve been complimentary it’s because they delivered on a promise to us and I was glad that I wanted people to know that.

* There’s a lot of talk about the president reopening the country. Are you going to be working with the white house as the president claims, or do you want to work mostly with state experts…

Well I’ll listen to anybody. But I what I won’t do anything that will jeopardize the safety and health of people here in Illinois.

* What is your administration heard about hydroxychloroquine? The President has said it should be used as a coronavirus cure. Do you think that’s good advice?…

Dr. Ezike: There are multiple different treatments that people are trying off label. Off label means that there’s a medicine that’s approved for a different cause but is now being tried for COVID-19 patients. So there are many, there’s antibiotics, there are antimalarials, which are anti parasitics, there are anti virus medicines. So, all different types of medicines are being employed. And then what we need to really figure out if it’s the right way forward and now it would go on to get FDA approval for a specific indication is to have these randomized controlled trials randomized controlled double blind trials, as the governor already described and so when you get these large scale trials and then you prove scientifically with sufficient power that there is one treatment is either better than placebo or better than an alternate treatment. Then that’s how it goes on to move for FDA approval.

So, again, anecdotally that’s where it starts where you get, as I hear stories that we tried this at work, we tried this work and the next step is to take it into trials. And so, again, people in terms of what recommendations are officially put out are usually based not on anecdotes, but more so on trials and the results of trials and so we’re looking forward to getting some of those results of some trials that might be going on so that we can spread on if some of these anecdotes actually proved to be factual and work great.

* With multiple projections showing billions of dollars in lost revenue due to COVID-19 and the Comptroller’s office showing nearly $200 million in cost What is your plan to close the gap in this year’s budget and when will you present a new FYI 21 plan?…

We’ll be talking about that later this week. It’s obviously been very much on our minds.

I spend an awful lot of time every day focused on trying to reduce the infections across the state and reduce the hospitalizations and the need for ventilators and of course reduce the death rate.

I have also had my budget and economy team working hard on exactly how big the hole will be from a revenue perspective as well as obviously the expanding that we’ve had to do to protect people in the state, and then try to project forward what does this mean for a budget in 2021.

And then ultimately we’re going to present our best ideas, and our best estimates to the legislature, who is finally responsible for passing a budget. But we’ll be presenting that going forward.

I think no one should mistake the fact that this is going to be a very, very difficult fiscal financial challenge for the state of Illinois. It’s one of the reasons why I think all of us should be communicating with our federal representatives here to work hard to get the government in Washington DC to help all of the states because we really have this problem in common with all the states you hear Governor’s say this all the time. We have big holes in our budgets as a result of what’s happened with COVID-19 it’s nobody’s fault it just is where it is and we’re going to have to deal with it.

* Given your concerns about summer events do you think the Illinois State Fair should proceed as scheduled?…

Well, we’re going to have to make decisions relatively soon because contracts have to be signed. And I think that was really the point I was making a few days ago when I talked about summer festivals was more or less just a lot of planning goes into these things and decisions have to be made.

So, yeah, I mean we’re gonna have to make some decisions. And I have as much fun as anybody does at the state fairs and I’m hopeful that we could have both our state fairs the one in DuQuoin and the one in Springfield. But I am also just going to listen to the experts and make sure that we do the right thing so that we don’t spread this COVID-19, and that we don’t have a spike in you know all the hospitalizations and ultimately and people passing away.

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