* The governor also said this yesterday while appearing on CNBC and I told subscribers about it this morning. Here’s the Tribune…

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Tuesday said models are now predicting the new coronavirus won’t peak in Illinois until mid-May, weeks later than previously projected. […]

“So it’s been pushed out now, according to the models, to maybe mid-May, but at a lower level, and so we’re moving, inching toward that date,” Pritzker said. “People are doing what they need to do in the state of Illinois, staying indoors or staying at home, wearing masks outside as I’ve urged everybody to do, making sure they’re washing their hands and all the other things that we’ve asked people to do.”

He also said this yesterday during his media briefing…

In the same interview, Pritzker again said he he is looking at regional differences across Illinois’ 102 counties as he weights adjustments to the state’s stay-at-home order.

“We put in stay-at-home orders that were really across -the-board very effective, and now we’ve looked at what the infection rate has been—different in Cook County than it is in our collar counties, and different in our Cook and collar counties that it is in other counties across the state,” Pritzker said. “And now I think we can make some adjustments based upon hospitalization rates, based upon ICU bed availability, based upon infection rates.”

* Expected, but the IHSA probably spent too much energy keeping peoples’ hopes up…

The Illinois High School Association’s board of directors has announced the cancellation of the spring sports season. […]

“We support the decision by Governor Pritzker and the Illinois State Board of Education, and given the logistics, we simply felt we could not conduct state tournaments that meet the expectations of our member schools this spring, ” IHSA Executive Director Craig Anderson said. “As disappointing as it may be for students, it is the right decision for their health and safety, as well as for the health and safety of the general public, as we cope with this unprecedented pandemic.”

* Hannah Meisel at the Daily Line explains a complicated subject…

Illinois’ R0, or R naught, value is decreasing, but hasn’t yet fallen enough yet to let up on the state’s stay-at-home order, Ezike said. The R0 value is the reproductive ratio of a virus.

If the average R0 value in a population is greater than 1, the infection will spread exponentially. If the R0 is less than 1, the infection will spread more slowly and eventually die out. The higher the R0 value in a given population, the faster a virus will spread.

R0 is affected by a population’s size and proportion of people susceptible to the virus in a given population, the infectiousness of a virus and the rate of disappearance of cases — either by recovery or death. The length of time an infected person is contagious also plays a role in a population’s R0 value.

At the beginning of Covid-19’s spread in Illinois, which Ezike characterized Sunday as the “exponential growth phase,” Illinois’ R0 value might have been 3.5,” she said. But the figure is now closer to 1, she said.

“If one person can infect three [people], and then each of those people infect three additional [people], and then those people all go on to [infect more people], within 10 rounds you get to 60,000 people,” Ezike said. “And so, obviously we brought that way down — we think our R naught is low in the ones — and so the transmission has slowed tremendously, but of course, it’s not enough to have completely made sure that it died out.”

Pritzker added that epidemiologists are looking for a R0 value below 1.

* OK, on to the Tribune’s live blog…

Lightfoot says she’s expecting Illinois’ stay-at-home order to extend into June

Lightfoot awards $7.5 million in funding to Chicago community groups as they fight two battles: COVID-19 and uptick in violence

About half of Cook County juvenile detention center’s detainees will be tested for COVID-19

Reputed gang member released from federal jail in part due to COVID-19 spread, as inmate on R Kelly’s floor tests positive

City of Chicago starts cloth mask drive

Open two weeks — or two days — and then coronavirus: new business owners left in lurch by pandemic

U. of I. will use emergency coronavirus fund to provide relief to students ‘as much as we can’

As Chicagoans eat at home because of COVID-19, rats used to dining out on restaurant scraps follow the food supply

Correctional officer at Cook County Jail dies from COVID-19, death of second officer under investigation, as inmate deaths rise to 6

Mayor Lori Lightfoot ripped Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for reopening beaches and said Willie Wilson wanted millions in cash from the city to buy masks.

Officials said Chicago had 500 COVID-19 deaths as of Monday. Nearly 60% of those deaths were black residents.

A new Waukegan facility can sterilize up to 80,000 N95 masks a day

* Sun-Times live blog…

FDA approves first at-home COVID-19 test

Doctors ask death penalty states to share execution drugs for use in COVID-19 treatment

National Spelling Bee canceled for first time since 1945

Mental health therapists seek help from Blue Cross

Efforts outlined to bridge Chicago’s racial divide in coronavirus-related deaths

Another employee at the Cook County Circuit Court clerk’s office has tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the overall total to 20.

Muslims prepare for a Ramadan like no other

* Roundup…

* Coronavirus is largely spread by people without symptoms. Here’s what that could mean for reopening the economy.

* Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year

* Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains new study finds

‘The risk is simply too high’: Germany’s Oktoberfest canceled due to coronavirus pandemic

* Peoria leaders navigate ‘uncharted waters’: There’s nothing left to cut, says the head of Peoria’s Police Benevolent Association.

* 14 residents, 9 employees test positive for COVID-19 at GreenTree at Mt. Vernon

* Winnebago County to begin testing all nursing home staff for COVID-19

* Lawmakers look to help prison workers who volunteered to go to coronavirus outbreak: At issue is a Facebook post made by Fulton County Board Chairman Patrick O’Brian who blasted the state’s prison system for not quarantining and testing the officers as they had allegedly been promised.

* US colleges brace for a devastating summer and fall

* Illinois Senate Republicans, including Schimpf, question Pritzker on prison sentence commutations: The Illinois Constitution states, “The Governor may grant reprieves, commutations and pardons, after conviction, for all offenses on such terms as he thinks proper. The manner of applying therefore may be regulated by law.” Pritzker pointed out Saturday that all cases also go through the Prisoner Review Board process.