* Jordan Weissmann at Slate…
At this point, a number of states have begun lifting stay-at-home orders and allowing nonessential businesses to reopen, with the hope that they can start unthawing their economies even if the coronavirus hasn’t been fully contained.
But the defrosting process seems to be going slowly—at least if you judge by the number of people brave enough to eat out. At restaurants that use OpenTable’s booking software, the number of diners in every state where the company tracks data was still down by 82 percent or more through Sunday, compared with a year before. That includes early reopeners like Georgia (down 92 percent), Utah (down 91 percent), Nebraska (down 90 percent), South Carolina (down 89 percent), Tennessee (down 87 percent), Texas (down 83 percent), and Oklahoma (down 82 percent). […]
One important reason that restaurants aren’t full yet in states that have started reopening is that, well, they’re not allowed to be. In Georgia, dining places are only allowed to seat 10 patrons per 500 square feet. In Texas, they can only operate at 25 percent capacity in counties that have recently had more than five coronavirus cases; in Tennessee they’re limited to half-capacity. Many restaurants have chosen not to open at all due to these restrictions, because they don’t think it will be profitable. Or they’re just sticking to takeout.
Meanwhile, some states are opening in stages, so all of their restaurants haven’t necessarily had a chance to welcome guests. In Tennessee, dining rooms started opening back up on May 1. But Nashville only joined in on Monday.
Florida is down 89 percent, but the Miami area is still closed. Remember, though, these are only restaurants which use OpenTable.
* Related…
* Three Illinois businesses sue Pritzker, challenge his power to shutter services: The attorney representing two Republican lawmakers in separate cases challenging Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s emergency powers has three new clients: a hair salon owner and a restaurateur with two establishments.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:42 am:
If there’s anything encouraging in the middle of a pandemic it’s that strong majorities are not foolish and selfish enough to rush out and play Russian roulette. It’s not just their lives but the lives of those who they may infect, particularly their elderly or sick family members with whom they live, as well as frontline workers like nurses, doctors and others.
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:49 am:
“Fully contained”?
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:55 am:
Some of that’s probably economic too, though. If you or your partner has lost your job, or are worried you might, then the price of a restaurant meal may not be as appealing. And then there is a sticker shock. If your family has gotten accustomed to eating more home cooked meals, that is almost always cheaper than a restaurant meal. Even expensive steak is nothing near as much as they charge at a fancy steak joint (because the restaurant sells the experience as much as anything).
- NotRich - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:56 am:
who would go to Darcy’s Pub and sit close to members of the Eastern Bloc?? really?? they do not social distance, they do not wear masks..
- Flapdoodle - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:00 am:
The Guv made this point in a presser last week, but it’s worth re-emphasizing: While there have been smallish demonstrations by a mishmash of rightwing groups and while there have been some self-serving lawsuits by short-sighted business owners and others, the vast majority of people have generally followed anti-virus recommendations and requirements. We hear about the noncompliant because they make noise, and noise draws media attention. Common sense and good judgment are much less flashy. Fortunately, at least so far, they have also been much more prevalent. That’s encouraging.
- Helm - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:04 am:
I’m wondering if these stats are misleading depending on how Open Table is counting its percentages. For example, the article references Texas being down 83%. Down 83% from what metric ? If it was pre-pandemic then it’s misleading.
If TX is limited to 25% capacity and it is down 83% over full occupancy from last year does that mean it is currently operating at 17% of the 25% which would be 68% occupancy in post-pandemic customer limits ?
Not sure if I have the metrics correct but the article isn’t clear either.
- In 630 - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:08 am:
I believe the OpenTable data is compared to previous year.
And diminished capacity isn’t really relevant to the comparison- if there were real demand, you’d expect the data to say that they’re maxing out their limited capacities.
As usual, the shutdown critics would be better off directing their efforts at accelerating test and trace and safety measures that make reopening possible and appealing.
- Nuke The Whales - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:10 am:
==As usual, the shutdown critics would be better off directing their efforts at accelerating test and trace and safety measures that make reopening possible and appealing.==
Why criticize Donald Trump when you can redirect anger towards Democratic Governors with “well what if we wear masks and social distance,” while being opposed to both of those things?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:12 am:
===I believe===
You don’t have to trust your belief, it’s right in the story.
- Helm - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:13 am:
This is part of the reason I’m sympathetic to allowing restaurants to open earlier in June as compared to what it’s looking like.
It’s going to take awhile for customers to feel comfortable coming back to restaurants regardless of when we start so let’s start that process sooner rather than later.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:20 am:
Part of any issue in regards to saving businesses and restaurants is this;
For me? I can’t see myself going to any restaurant, anytime soon, no matter the restrictions or that restaurant telling me it’s safe.
I have no confidence in the safety, not because of the restaurant, but because this virus and asymptomatic issues that impact my safety they can’t control.
I’ll get takeout. Yep. Doing it now. I’ll order goods online for delivery - groceries, clothing, supples, can’t think of anything I can’t get.
Going to a place of business because some angry people want me to risk lives, not mine, but possible all those I may encounter, unwittingly… it’s not the risk I’m willing to take for those I may hurt.
I said “all that” for my point… open… you’re liable, you try for immunity for liability, I definitely won’t even order from you. I don’t need a “vaccine”, but there’s nothing right now that makes me feel comfortable sitting at any table for any amount of time to be waited on for a whole meal.
I’m not going to big box stores to “browse”, not going to Menards or Farm and Fleet to waste time contemplating projects I’m not starting. What makes places I love to go to, to browse and enjoy time there, think I’m foot traffic that will be coming back? I’m not.
The three T’s, a 14 day downward trend, the tracing leading to self quarantining… where is all that happening? Nowhere.
Reopen too early… risk closing never to open again.
- Downstate - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:22 am:
Three different dining owners, in two states have all reported that their restaurants (with drive thrus) are meeting or exceeding normal levels.
At the same time, via an Illinois focus group, it looks like about 25% of Illinois restaurants will not reopen.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:22 am:
I personally will be keeping track of places here that buck the prevailing orders and reopen beyond what is permitted, and I won’t be going there in the future. If such places care so little about the health of their customers in this respect, what else are they doing that I should beware of? I don’t think business owners should underestimate the collective memory of much of the public versus the tiny cadre of vocal supporters. Being on the small side of 70-30 or 80-20 issues has its consequences.
- Big Jer - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:24 am:
—- Reopen too early… risk closing never to open again—-
Thanks OW. This and 1000 times this.
- Chatham Resident - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:29 am:
How many restaurants will never reopen from the pandemic to begin with?
Steak and Shake just announced permanent closure of 51 of their restaurants nationwide. Don’t know if any in Illinois on the list.
Also speculation of some other Springfield restaurants (I won’t say names), both chain and non-chain, permanently closing too.
https://www.wandtv.com/news/steak-n-shake-to-close-at-least-51-restaurants-nationwide/article_7dcb97da-93f6-11ea-b56c-2b713d70d2ef.html
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:35 am:
Restaurants shuttering are going to be a real bummer. Mentioned in another thread, but just in the last week or so, we’ve permanently lost our neighborhood diner, a popular bar and grill, and a very good South African BBQ joint.
I fear for the restaurant industry (and my personal dining options on the other side of COVID), but people simply will not return until they feel it’s safe to do so, me included.
- Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:42 am:
I think the mask in public requirement will last until there is widespread deployment of a vaccine. Also the ban on large commercial gatherings like festivals and sporting events.
The other bans could lapse with some but not huge increases in infection. Most of us are like OW, not going out unless we need to.
- Benjamin - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:43 am:
==Steak and Shake just announced permanent closure of 51 of their restaurants nationwide==
In fairness, Steak and Shake hadn’t been doing well before the crisis: .https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/steak-n-shake-has-closed-more-100-locations
But a lot of restaurants operate on the edge. The best way to get them back to health is to make sure their customers don’t have to worry about theirs.
- Hieronymus - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:43 am:
We are only as safe as the weakest link out there. I don’t want to be caught in any venue where even just one employee or customer comes in not wearing a mask or who won’t respect someone else’s personal space.
My family very much wants to safely support those businesses where they can and do strictly enforce mask wearing and social distancing. Unfortunately, IMO, we just are not there yet.
I recognize that I am quite fortunate that I can work from home and continue getting a paycheck, and I have concern for those hard-working people whose businesses and jobs have been hit hard.
So, speaking for myself, I feel that it would most uncharitable to complain about any particular inconvenience I must endure such as wearing a mask and maintaining social distance.
I would even suggest that rather than perceive these orders/restrictions as inconveniences or impositions upon our freedoms, that instead we regard them as powerful tools, forged upon advice of medical experts, that we citizens can wield … empowering us all to protect ourselves, our families, our neighbors and our community.
- Pundent - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:44 am:
Very few restaurants can make the economics work at 25 or even 50% of normal capacity. And even without those limitations there’s no reason to believe that occupancy levels will come anywhere close to where they were pre-pandemic either due to fear or economic concerns. Until we can establish and execute a plan that addresses the real concerns that people continue to have regarding their personal safety, nothing will be even close to normal.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:45 am:
After hearing all the local Springfield area “radio experts” on morning AM radio, I’ve came to the conclusion the greatest generation is to be admired even more.
These My Rights, You Can’t Tell Me What to Do people would have demanded they get to buy as much of whatever they want without rationing stamps and not black out their headlights because gvt can’t stop me from doing what I want. They are a selfish group of childish spoiled brats throwing a temper tantrum caring only about themselves.
Like I said the WW 2 Greatest Generation shows what doing what is best for all should look like.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:47 am:
I was eating out 4 to 6 times a week at the beginning of March.
I am at the point where I am uneasy when I see folks blatantly ignoring simple guidance, like wearing a mask in a public place where you are unable to socially distance and businesses that are not proactively encouraging their customers to wear masks, especially since wearing a mask protects others.
I don’t care what the motive is for the person refusing to wear a mask, I don’t care what the motive is for the business refusing to make an effort to keep their customers safe — the mask order is a big and visible indicator of whether or not that store, that restaurant, or that person is following any of the other recommendations to reduce the community spread of the virus.
Employees aren’t wearing masks? Why should I believe you disinfected anything?
Employees aren’t wearing masks correctly? Why should I believe they’re doing anything else correctly?
Patron not wearing a mask? Why should I believe they’re washing their hands? Why should I believe that they are avoiding large social groups.
A mask is a great way to tell if someone is taking — MY — health and the rest of our health seriously. I don’t care if it’s a political statement, I don’t care if it’s because you’re broke, and I don’t care if it’s because you’re Wolverine.
I have enough information to make a bunch of decisions about avoiding you.
If a restaurant is open for seating right now? Why would I go there? Why on earth would I assume they are following — any — of the other food safety regulations?
Yep. I’m voting with my feet. I have already elected to not patronize businesses that aren’t doing what I think is enough. I have literally abandoned goods I intended to purchase because of the line not being well managed or employees not wearing masks, or being surrounded by too many sniffling mouth breathers without masks.
I love you guys. I care about other people. But y’all gotta understand I am making a lot of cruel judgments about people refusing to wear masks.
I also assume they’re the same people who don’t return carts and pour engine oil down the storm drain.
If a business that sells food opens in defiance of this order, I’m probably never going to patronize them again. Why should I ever trust you with my health enough to consume something from your kitchen again?
I’m going to be more forgiving about that local antique mall, but I also believe I am capable of going a few months without antiquing and I have faith that y’all can too.
- City Zen - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:47 am:
Can a restaurant limit itself to 25-50% capacity and break even?
For restaurants to survive this, not only do they have to get diners to leave their homes, but those folks are going to have to trade their Saturday night out for the Tuesday early-bird special.
- Blooms of Spring - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:49 am:
Numbers from a focus group cannot be applied at the population level as a statistic, even if the group is actually a focus group that is part of a focus group study. Many groups referred to as focus groups are not really focus groups such as a panel or group interview.
- Publius - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:50 am:
Lesson in trickle down
Demand for restaurant will determine their survival. having restaurants open before the demand is there will certainly cause failures. Don’t incur the costs buckle down weather the storm come back when demand makes you a profit.
Supplied side economics does not work.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:54 am:
==Reopen too early… risk closing never to open again. ==
If your “early open” restaurant becomes a hot spot for transmission.
Imagine the publicity.
Imagine the liability.
+++++
The feds should pass a program that targets the industries & businesses & employees most at-risk from opening.
+++++
It seems like there should be a distinction in restaurant reopening that treats well-ventilated outdoor seating differently.
- Socially DIstant Watcher - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:01 pm:
==2.7 million people in Dade county. 500 deaths. .00018. ==
You’re anonymous, so likely not wortth responding to, but what the heck.
Comparing deaths to total population makes no sense. There are 11,000 confirmed cases in Miami-Dade, and the death rate you’re suggesting is 500 dead out of 11,000 confirmed cases, or 4.5%. If everyone in Miami-Dade were infected, then 4.5% of 2.7 million people could die. There could be as many as 123,000 dead. Just in Miami-Dade.
Even with your faulty analysis, it’s clear what’s at stake if we go back to pre-pandemic normal too soon.
You like those odds?
- Bigtwich - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:02 pm:
Poopy, Dookie and Sonja v. Reality
- Bob Loblaw - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:02 pm:
One really frustrating aspect of the current timeline is that the places eager to open are waging a bizarre culture war fight about not just opening, but entirely ignoring social distancing and masks too. It makes me even more uncomfortable to go to the grocery store and all the other places that are adhering to social distancing. Knowing there are people out there yelling at people for wearing masks and demanding hugs is scary. My family is planning to take a wait and see approach through the summer at this point.
- Suburban Mom - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:15 pm:
I’m a weekly trivia regular at a local bar and I miss it so bad, I miss the owners and waiters and bar trivia and my trivia friends. But if they reopened now (which they’re not, the owners are sane) there’s just absolutely no way I’d go there. It isn’t safe. I have kids who need me.
- Dotnonymous - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:31 pm:
Some who refuse to wear protective face coverings may be the same ones I’ve witnessed not caring enough to wash their hands…after using public restrooms…they are simply selfish… as well as icky.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:32 pm:
Downstate - “Three different dining owners, in two states have all reported that their restaurants (with drive thrus) are meeting or exceeding normal levels. ”
Public employee Profile in courage?
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/497199-colorado-restaurant-sees-license-suspended-after-reopening-in-defiance
- Red Ketcher - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:34 pm:
Poopy’s website claim ” Illinois’ Biggest Biker Destination “
- Generic Drone - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:36 pm:
Took a ride south. Folks just didn’t have masks. At one popular bike joint, all were sitting around tables, elbow to elbow.
- PublicServant - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:39 pm:
I would suggest restaurants adapt their menus and premises to curbside pickup and delivery, and get food trucks, and work with the local authorities to locate in open areas. Staying oriented towards table service as your primary source of income is a thing of the past for the foreseeable future.
- Don't Bloc Me In - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:52 pm:
Commenters have covered my thoughts well, so a couple frivolous observations: I had to stop reading the Slate article for a bit when I saw the word “unthawing.” Mmmm, that doesn’t mean what the writer thinks.
Also, if I were the judge in those lawsuits, I’d need a few practice sessions to be able to read Poopy’s and Dookie’s out loud with a straight face.
- Logical Thinker - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:57 pm:
For the Miami-Dade comparison, there are more than 11k cases in that county. Anyone still clinging to the “confirmed cases” number is willfully ignorant. Testing is not being done randomly and/or to non-symptomatic people generally so to assess a death rate of 4.5% and say 123k could die is purposely misleading and serves no purpose other than to keep people fearful.
- Dotnonymous - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:01 pm:
Real men don’t need masks…but they, or someone they should love better, may need a ventilator…desperately.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:04 pm:
=== Anyone still clinging to the “confirmed cases” number is willfully ignorant===
Anyone clinging to deaths as the complete count of those dying is ignorant.
We can do this ALL day.
Right now, confirmed deaths in 9+ weeks has surpassed confirmed flu deaths in a 52 (year) week period.
That’s confirmed deaths.
That’s not counting those that some are now discounting *outside* that number.
We can do this ALL day.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:12 pm:
If you want to see the impact of COVID-19, it is right here in the “raw” data. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:20 pm:
I love dining out. If you want me to sit at a table at your restaurant: 1) it will be outside 2) it will be at least 10 feet from the next table 3) the server (and all employees) will be wearing a face covering 4) the table and seating will be sanitized between customers 5) there will be a bottle of hand sanitizer on the table
I live downstate where there is lots of space, even in town. In the city…I’m not at a restaurant, I don’t think they can meet my criteria unless it is on a rooftop or on the lakefront.
- DailyGrind - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:29 pm:
* Anyone clinging to deaths as the complete count of those dying is ignorant. *
And the several states and the feds both openly admitted that those who test positive are counted as a Covid death, regardless of the actual cause of death. That being said, deaths and/or hospitalizations are the most accurate number we have - positive tests are solely dependent on the number of people tested.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:46 pm:
The people out screaming that they’re being tyrannized by facial covering requirements, as well as anyone else who is not taking the pandemic threat seriously, are why I won’t go to a restaurant until it’s much safer. I’ve done plenty of delivery and curbside in the meantime.
- Chatham Resident - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:57 pm:
If Steak and Shake closes a Springfield location, sadly it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s the one on Wabash. Despite its rebuilding after the Mar. 12, 2006 tornado. However, it’s the only one of their locations that is not near interstates.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 2:11 pm:
After reading about the latest lawsuits, I am still recovering from the notion that two restaurants named after fecal matter were patronized by anyone before there was a pandemic.
- Chatham Resident - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 2:21 pm:
“I am still recovering from the notion that two restaurants named after fecal matter were patronized by anyone before there was a pandemic.”
I agree, at least on Poopy’s (Savanna). Doesn’t sound appealing to me. I would fear I would get diarrhea from eating there by the time I drove near Thomson prison.