* Take some time today and read all of this article from The Atlantic. It convincingly upends some thinking about our approach to COVID-19 by looking at what other countries are doing right. For instance…
There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. […]
This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries. […]
[Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews] identifies “prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding” as the key elements for a super-spreader event. Super-spreading can also occur indoors beyond the six-feet guideline, because SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, can travel through the air and accumulate, especially if ventilation is poor. … But we don’t need to know all the sufficient factors that go into a super-spreading event to avoid what seems to be a necessary condition most of the time: many people, especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks. As Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, told me, given the huge numbers associated with these clusters, targeting them would be very effective in getting our transmission numbers down. […]
Take Sweden, an alleged example of the great success or the terrible failure of herd immunity without lockdowns, depending on whom you ask. In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries. Although it did not have a complete lockdown, as Kucharski pointed out to me, Sweden imposed a 50-person limit on indoor gatherings in March, and did not remove the cap even as many other European countries eased such restrictions after beating back the first wave. […]
Once a country has too many outbreaks, it’s almost as if the pandemic switches into “flu mode,” as Scarpino put it, meaning high, sustained levels of community spread even though a majority of infected people may not be transmitting onward.
* Contact tracing…
…Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country’s approach to looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees. Meanwhile, he believes, the Western world was getting distracted by the trees, and got lost among them. To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes. […]
Right now, many states and nations engage in what is called forward or prospective contact tracing. Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that’s not the only way to trace contacts. And, because of overdispersion, it’s not necessarily where the most bang for the buck lies. Instead, in many cases, we should try to work backwards to see who first infected the subject.
Because of overdispersion, most people will have been infected by someone who also infected other people, because only a small percentage of people infect many at a time, whereas most infect zero or maybe one person. As Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist and the author of the book The Rules of Contagion, explained to me, if we can use retrospective contact tracing to find the person who infected our patient, and then trace the forward contacts of the infecting person, we are generally going to find a lot more cases compared with forward-tracing contacts of the infected patient, which will merely identify potential exposures, many of which will not happen anyway, because most transmission chains die out on their own. […]
Even in an overdispersed pandemic, it’s not pointless to do forward tracing to be able to warn and test people, if there are extra resources and testing capacity. But it doesn’t make sense to do forward tracing while not devoting enough resources to backward tracing and finding clusters, which cause so much damage.
Makes sense.
* Testing…
In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals. Consider an infected person and their 20 forward contacts—people they met since they got infected. Let’s say we test 10 of them with a cheap, rapid test and get our results back in an hour or two. This isn’t a great way to determine exactly who is sick out of that 10, because our test will miss some positives, but that’s fine for our purposes. If everyone is negative, we can act as if nobody is infected, because the test is pretty good at finding negatives. However, the moment we find a few transmissions, we know we may have a super-spreader event, and we can tell all 20 people to assume they are positive and to self-isolate—if there are one or two transmissions, there are likely more, exactly because of the clustering behavior. Depending on age and other factors, we can test those people individually using PCR tests, which can pinpoint who is infected, or ask them all to wait it out. […]
Scarpino told me that overdispersion also enhances the utility of other aggregate methods, such as wastewater testing, especially in congregate settings like dorms or nursing homes, allowing us to detect clusters without testing everyone. Wastewater testing also has low sensitivity; it may miss positives if too few people are infected, but that’s fine for population-screening purposes. If the wastewater testing is signaling that there are likely no infections, we do not need to test everyone to find every last potential case. However, the moment we see signs of a cluster, we can rapidly isolate everyone, again while awaiting further individualized testing via PCR tests, depending on the situation.
The White House, as it turns out, misused rapid testing on individuals. Because the tests miss so many positive results, they should only be used to catch outbreaks among groups of people, who can then be individually tested.
* So, to sum up: Avoid indoor areas, keep the occupancy restrictions in place, stress ventilation improvements, concentrate on finding the sources of outbreaks and use rapid and aggregate tests to quickly locate developing problems and then use PCR tests to pinpoint individual infections. But don’t take my word for it, go read the whole thing. There is also some eye-opening info about schools.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 6:05 am:
The article also streses mask-wearing (e.g., “especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks”.) One feature of the successful nations is that they either have a culture that embraces mask wearing or there is real enforcement (New Zealand/Australia) - this limits the number of super-spreader incidents to begin with.
- tea_and_honey - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:17 am:
For me this is one of the key sentences - “Given that some people infect others before they show symptoms, or when they have very mild or even no symptoms, it’s not always possible to know if we are highly infectious ourselves. ”
Those pushing to open more broadly keep saying “just stay home if you are sick and let the rest of us have our normal lives back,” but it simply doesn’t work that way. Add in that as a society we’ve been taught to soldier on when we don’t feel well either out of a overdriven work ethic or the fear of punishment due to lack of sick days/adequate support and we’ve put ourselves in a position to be susceptible to these super spreader events.
- Cubs - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:24 am:
Time to open the schools for elementary and junior high kids. Enough.
- tea_and_honey - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:27 am:
==Time to open the schools for elementary and junior high kids. Enough.==
That’s your take away from this article?
- Cubs - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:29 am:
One of many, yes
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:43 am:
My goodness - Cubs -
From the article, citing Sweden, not well or bad but citing states;
=== It kept schools fully open without distancing or masks, but only for children under 16, who are unlikely to be super-spreaders of this disease. Both transmission and illness risks go up with age, and Sweden went all online for higher-risk high-school and university students—the opposite of what we did in the United States.===
It is interesting for grade schools, looking at junior high, high school, and university students, and factoring in the lower household count (individuals in a home) it is quite interesting to Sweden and how “under 16” was sectioned off, it is more interesting, to me, that with our larger households, on a whole, is the risk still around, due in part not because of schools but to homes and the numbers in those homes.
Junior high, high schools, even colleges… the “standard” pointed as Sweden saw those as needing “online” learning.
With respect.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:47 am:
Also, to the post, and wow…
Rich, thank you for sharing.
Smarter ways to attack the virus spread and now with, sadly, more information due to time and spread, I know reading it’s more important to see the how and why critically and with testing and tracing and looking at those important tools differently in both how and the results to both as well.
Must read.
- Keyrock - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:08 am:
Thanks for amplifying the need to focus on ventilation. The CDC updated its recommendations on ventilation in September, but they’ve received little attention. These apply to office buildings:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/office-buildings.html,
And these apply to apartments, condos, and other multi family housing:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/multifamily-housing.html
The CDC documents refer to,professional standards set by an engineering group, ASHRAE.
Much remains to be done to implement CDC recommendations — especially in residential buildings.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:10 am:
On thing to Kansas’ credit is they do report clusters every week and break them down by type and location.
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
For example, they have had a cluster with both a volleyball team and an HS Football team.
Don’t know if Illinois provides the same breakdown.
- City Guy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:27 am:
The sewage testing idea shows promise for residential settings: jails, nursing homes, dorms, etc. It does not work well for offices and K to 12 schools due to less consistent and comprehensive use of the toilet.
- Angry Republican - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:43 am:
Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:46 am:
Who locked you in your basement AR? I go out everyday, where ever I please. So does everyone I know. Nobody is locked up. You make it sound like wearing a mask is like wearing hand cuffs or something. Grow up.
- don the legend - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:49 am:
==The White House, as it turns out, misused rapid testing on individuals.==
Impossible. The White House has done a great job. The best anyone could have possible done. (said with a huge amount of /S)
- Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:49 am:
=So, to sum up: Avoid indoor areas, keep the occupancy restrictions in place, stress ventilation improvements, concentrate on finding the sources of outbreaks and use rapid and aggregate tests to quickly locate developing problems and then use PCR tests to pinpoint individual infections.=
Sound very much like the response in Illinois - Just need JB to fulfill that promise of hiring 4000 community based contact tracers.
- Scamp640 - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:50 am:
@ Angry Republican. If we as a nation had just more uniformly sheltered in place over the past six months, we would be in a much better place now. This would result in a reduced need for lock downs in the future. Ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.
- don the legend - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:50 am:
==Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years.==
Just you and all other covidiots.
- Wastelander - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:52 am:
Yeah let’s just continue to eviscerate our economy and watch small businesses die all in the name of public safety.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:54 am:
=== Yeah let’s just continue to eviscerate our economy and watch small businesses die all in the name of public safety.===
I’m not going to advocate for your ridiculousness so you can go to Chili’s and someone I know or family member can be infected or worse.
Selfishness won’t bring back the economy.
Caring for each other will fight the virus so we can have an economy
- Jocko - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:10 am:
==Time to open the schools for elementary and junior high kids. Enough.==
What part of prolonged contact, poor ventilation, and crowding did you misread?
- Wastelander - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:13 am:
@Oswego Willy
You always mention Chili’s or Applebee’s or some other massive chain restaurant. I’m referring to local places, small businesses, places that may have been open for generations now having to or in danger of closing. I’m also not solely talking about restaurants.
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:18 am:
Waste, you and AR clearly didn’t read the article, so why not spare us from reading your ignorant drivel. The whole point is that by adopting smarter policies other countries have had much more success keeping their economies afloat.
But that requires serious thought and probably some reading, activities that morons like you are allergic to.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:19 am:
=== You always mention Chili’s or Applebee’s or some other massive chain restaurant.===
Same thought.
Same. Thought.
- don the legend - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:19 am:
Wastelander, why is Willie’s point different because of the type of business.
“Selfishness won’t bring back the economy.
Caring for each other will fight the virus so we can have an economy”
- pool boy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:19 am:
Avoid indoor areas, keep the occupancy restrictions in place, stress ventilation improvements, concentrate on finding the sources of outbreaks and use rapid and aggregate tests to quickly locate developing problems and then use PCR tests to pinpoint individual infections. I’m on board with this. The first one is hard to do since most of us have to go the work in an indoor environment, but I limit other indoor activities.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:22 am:
=Yeah let’s just continue to eviscerate our economy and watch small businesses die all in the name of public safety.=
40K new cases yesterday and we’re still arguing over masks and plexiglass. I guess the loss of small businesses is a casualty of “liberty.”
- North Park - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:24 am:
==all in the name of public safety==
Woah woah woah. Public safety isn’t a bad thing. It keeps people alive to come to your small business.
- Concerned Dem - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:25 am:
I hate the “but what about small businesses” excuse for recklessly trying pretend that you can just flip a switch and reopen the economy as it was. Every Chamber and other group that purports to support small businesses should be doing everything within their power to help these shops develop e-commerce abilities so that they can not only continue to operate in the age of COVID but in the age of online shopping.
- North Park - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:27 am:
Forgot to add that government regulations notwithstanding, I’m not going inside your small business until a real vaccine is ready, and I know I’m not alone in that. So it isn’t the government that’s killing your business, it’s the self-interest of a free society.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:30 am:
=Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years.=
Apparently one of the elementary schools is not in session. Such a juvenile response to an informative article.
Thanks for the article Rich, I have become a big fan of The Atlantic in the past few years. Really intelligent reporting.
What I cannot understand is why we do not have the resources to conduct both types of contact tracing.
I am always intrigued by the comparisons and/or study of scandinavian countries or other countries that tend to be very homogeneous with low mobility and low poverty. It can be very informative, yet is is sometimes a very sterile environment. That is in no way meant to be a criticism either.
Sweden- lower population, high levels of education, low level of poverty (among the lowest), generally better health profile than the US. Interesting approach to attacking the virus. I think the bigger take away is that, as a nation, they were able to generally come together and follow an approach. No doubt there was plenty of criticism and dissent but still high levels of compliance.
Using Illinois as an example, we have grifter attorneys and politicians playing on people fears and distrust and inciting them to act dangerously.
I see that as one of the main differences between the US approach and the differing, but more successful approaches of other countries.
BTW- we are bringing our k-8 kids back (all) for in person learning. Our high school kids will stay in a hybrid model. We have been successful in keeping people safe, but we have plenty of parents demanding everyone go to school 5 days a week.
- Arock - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:31 am:
A good read and once again shows that the Harvard saliva test may be a way to identify the superspreader before they know the are even sick. We must come up with a better method of testing to help keep it out of long term care facilities. It is currently in most all of the long term care facilities in my area. I would assume that a superspreader would have a high viral load that the Harvard Test would catch by the limited information I have found on line about the test. Testing daily for people that work inside dealing up close with others as needed for the job is essential. Healthcare worker, daycare workers, in classroom teachers and all the rest need access to cheap daily testing.
- The Doc - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:32 am:
Zeynep has been the absolute best read on this topic since the pandemic began, especially with political influence compromising the CDC and other public health officials.
- walker - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:37 am:
Arock good momment
- walker - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:37 am:
comment
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:39 am:
=== We must come up with a better method of testing to help keep it out of long term care facilities. It is currently in most all of the long term care facilities in my area. I would assume that a superspreader would have a high viral load that the Harvard Test would catch by the limited information I have found on line about the test. Testing daily for people that work inside dealing up close with others as needed for the job is essential.===
This is top shelf and honest to what and where real changes are necessary.
Good stuff
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:40 am:
“Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years.”
Yeah well, if people with that attitude would just put on a d*** mask, wash their hands and practice social distancing we would be on track for a return to normalcy. But no, we suffer because people who think their s*** don’t stink absolutely refuse to do the barest of minimums for their country, families and neighbors. Thanks a whole lot. There is only so much you can do, but if everyone did the little things they could, we wouldn’t be in the big mess we’re in.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:50 am:
===- Cubs - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:24 am:====
I assume that Cubs is a cardinal fan attempting to make all Cubs fans look bad because there’s no way that can be a serious response to this article or the information in it.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 9:55 am:
== Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years. ==
Because the only two options are to open everything up completely or dwell in the basement (where ironically I am typing this)?
Thanks to Google you can see how the ‘open everything up’ vs restrictions works in terms of the growth of daily cases.
Wisconsin — Restrictions are for losers.
https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&mid=%2Fm%2F0824r&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
A general upward trend (3000 a day now)
Illinois — We have restrictions, boo no fun.
https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&mid=%2Fm%2F03v0t&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
If you drill into the data a bit you can see that the mobility difference between the two states isn’t that different.
Because when you get people sick, they stay home. When people see their friends getting sick, they stay home.
Well below 3000 a day, and besides the ‘oops we found moe data day’ we have been below 3,000 a day since May.
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEV_enUS824US824&ei=ktR9X
5_vDoLesAWZ06aQCQ&q=Illinois+covid&oq=Illinois+covid&gs_lcp=
CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIFCAAQsQMyCAgAELEDEJECMgUIABCxAzIFCAAQsQMy
BQgAELEDMgUIABCxAzIFCAAQsQMyAggAMgIIADICCAA6BAgAEEc6BAgAEEM6C
ggAELEDEIMBEEM6BwgAELEDEEM6BAgAEAo6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDVCcyAZYrNsGY
JveBmgAcAN4AIABcIgB0QeSAQM2LjSYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6yAEEwAEB&
sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwifgNKm3KLsAhUCL6wKHZmpCZIQ4dUDCA0&uact=5
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:00 am:
“Time to open the schools for elementary and junior high kids. Enough.”
I’m hearing a lot of this and the every time I do I try to persuade my wife to walk away from the profession and do something else with her time. She’s got 2 masters’ and 15 years in the classroom but we don’t really need her income, and from my perspective her effort and risk is wasted on ingrates who sacrifice nothing and have zero right to demand it from anyone else.
- Chatham Resident - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:03 am:
==Healthcare worker, daycare workers, in classroom teachers and all the rest need access to cheap daily testing.==
Plus all State Employees too.
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:25 am:
Wastelander,
I guess I don’t understand your comment and how it has to do with the article. The only small businesses that are being forced to close by law in IL are bars and restaurants during mitigation. Others are limited to % of customers. So what businesses are you talking about? Hardware stores have been open all along. Since phase 4 began, manicurists and barber shop/beauty salons are open. Grocers and garden stores are open.
Are these failing businesses due to government restrictions or to a population that are restricting their own activities due to the pandemic?
- Mama - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:33 am:
===- Cubs - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 7:24 am:====
Did you read the entire article Rich provided?
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:35 am:
As we know better, we do better.
We are whipsawed as new information changes what we need to do to protect both lives and livelihoods. Doesn’t help that politicians are taking hard positions based on fluid information. They have trouble reversing themselves.
- muon - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:36 am:
One of the most important takeaways from this excellent article is the importance of clusters in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Most of the US response has been focused on controlling all possible spreaders. The study cited in the article leads one to conclude that we should direct more resources at identifying the 1 out of 5 that test positive who are responsible for most of the spread. That’s very different than the public health strategy we typically use for most infectious diseases like influenza.
- Mama - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:39 am:
==- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 10:25 am:==
It is a mixture of both, but most of it comes from the seniors citizens (who have the money) restricting their activities. Lots younger people are out of a job and can only afford Walmart and McDonald’s. McDonalds is booming.
- Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:04 am:
I truly believe that one, if not two of the vaccine candidates will emerge from phase three in midNovember. My comment is not intended to be political. Keeping fingers crossed that many front liners and vulnerable will begin inoculation in January. As far as mitigation efforts. Not much will change until Inauguration Day at best.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:18 am:
Interesting. Didn’t know that contact tracing was not retrospective. It makes good sense to trace backward and forward.
I’m not going to shop in small businesses without mitigation requirements like mandatory masks, social distancing and limited capacity. Many agree, and that’s in large part why the economy is hurting. Let’s proceed based on how well we limit sickness and death.
Our governor and others have tried to err on the side of saving lives, and as OW says, you can’t un-die. They are fighting forces that are trying to rip apart progress and eliminate government-imposed mitigation measures.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:18 am:
=Are these failing businesses due to government restrictions or to a population that are restricting their own activities due to the pandemic?=
I can say that from my perspective and my families that restrictions or the lack of resources isn’t what’s keeping us from returning to “normal.” Shopping at the mall, eating out, going to a movie are all choices. The pandemic has shown us that we can choose to engage in any of those activities or not to. And with 40K new cases yesterday alone why would we? When I feel that we’ve gotten our act together as a country and put this behind us I’ll return to “normal.” As things stand today that probably means waiting for a vaccine. I’m certainly not going to put my families life at risk in sake of “freedom” or “liberty.” That’s my choice.
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:30 am:
Pundent,
Same here. I can waive going to the movies, the mall, hair upkeep, shopping for non-necessity goods, etc until after the pandemic. In addition, this pandemic situation highlighted things that I was doing and spending money on that I frankly did not need to do or spend money on. With all the uncertainty about the virus and the future, it makes sense to me to build a nest egg right now.
- muon - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:36 am:
Grandson of Man - It does make sense to trace backwards and forwards if there are unlimited testing resources. When there are limited resources (equipment, testers, or time) we should concentrate on backwards tracing. That means we may have to relax on forward tracing except for those identified as cluster spreaders from the backwards tracing.
- Cheswick - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 11:40 am:
OneMan, the last link you posted “blew out” this page making it virtually unreadable for me on my phone. I’m not knocking you personally. As a matter of fact, I always look for your comments on Capitol Fax. I just thought you’d like to know for future reference.
- thisjustinagain - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 12:27 pm:
To:
- don the legend - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 8:49 am:
==The White House, as it turns out, misused rapid testing on individuals.==
Impossible. The White House has done a great job. The best anyone could have possible done. (said with a huge amount of /S)
You forgot the “wonderful”, “fabulous”, “tremendous”, etc. /also Max Snark.
Meanwhile Covidiots continue to ignore science, reason, and reality by continuing to demand “freedoms” they think they have, no matter what the body count, so long as it’s not them or theirs.
- A - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 12:37 pm:
As far as sending the children back to school, no one seems to have concern for the many adults who work in the schools. It’s said that children are not affected and do not spread COVID, but I have to wonder if the age groups were reversed (kids getting sick and having higher death rates but adults not being affected) if this would wash.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 12:44 pm:
===Yes, we should all remain locked in our basements for the next 10 years.===
Please do. Frankly, that’s my preferred location for angry republicans
Pundent@11:18 - same here, and for the life of my I can’t understand how the reopeners don’t get it. I just won’t be going back until I know I won’t die. Go figure
- Ok Boomer - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 12:47 pm:
This is extremely valuable information. Elementary school districts in La Grange are now saliva screening to identify super spreaders in their population. Glenbrook D225 and New Trier are looking into employing a similar form of mitigation. The more widespread this approach becomes the greater chance we have of reducing and potentially eliminating the spread of CV-19.
- Dotnonymous - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 1:10 pm:
If if’s and buts were candies and nuts we’d throw a Christmas party…my take away?…doom…still.
- Dotnonymous - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 1:12 pm:
Quarantine works…only.
- harp5339 - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 1:49 pm:
What’s heartbreaking is this is another article emphasizing rapid, widespread testing to get us through this. And that technology exists — a simple, paper strip that costs less than a dollar, but it can’t make it through FDA regulation because the bureaucracy has no method to approve it. It’s currently being held to too high a standard than what is required for “herd testing.”
It was just approved for use in India, so we’ll see how that goes.
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 2:01 pm:
Is anyone surprised that Donald Trump is at the center of a cluster?
There is no excuse for slowing distribution of rapid tests. It sounds like the perfect is the enemy of the good.
- Teacher Lady - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 3:54 pm:
J.S. Mill : We have been successful in keeping people safe, but we have plenty of parents demanding everyone go to school 5 days a week.
I’m wondering how many of the parents who are demanding that everyone get back to school are doing so because of the day care issue. Parents need kids back in school so they can go to work. Would the demands still be there if there were a way to provide for the school-aged kids to be taken care of (at no charge to families, like school is) so that parents could go to work?
- Teacher Lady - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 3:57 pm:
In other words,
Are the parents worried about their child’s education, or are they mostly needing the kids to have supervision so they can go to work?
- Nope18 - Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 4:44 pm:
I’m so sick of hearing “locked up in our basements.” It’s not a tornado, what idiots went to their basements? For what? What good does a lock do either? We had to stay at our unlocked houses, moving about freely in them, and given tons of free entertainment. We were free to go outside anytime we wanted, or go for a drive. “Schools need to open.” Our schools have been open since August. The closed school are due to high infection rates. Get that down, and the school will open. Stop yelling all time and you won’t release so many droplets. If anyone in charge had 1/2 a braincell, they would have known what to do from jump street. China told us all about backwards tracing and ventilation in MARCH. During the Spanish flu, schools stayed open by keeping the windows open and running fans. Utility companies donated the extra energy/gas/coal that was needed for heat. It worked well. The richest people in the world have made hundreds of billions of dollars during this. They could donate food, pay rents, bought PPE, and create useful jobs easily. Jeff Bezos single handedly could have bailed out the airlines and saved thousands of jobs and not even noticed the difference in his wealth. He doesn’t even pay taxes. These are the people we should all be angry with. Other things China told us by March: Asymptomatic people were spreaders, pets can get it, herd immunity doesn’t work for coronaviruses, you can get it more than once, the longest a person has been contagious was 36 days, hospital personnel were experiencing PTSD, and it takes at least 30 days to see the impact from an event/holiday. One last eye opener,some children with little to no symptoms, still ended up with permanent lung scarring.