A look ahead
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think Dan Vock is mostly right about what would happen if House Speaker Michael Madigan picks up a significant number of seats tomorrow…
It could make it easier for Democrats to legislate in the upcoming session. The COVID-19 pandemic has strained Illinois’s already precarious financial situation, and keeping the budget in the black next year could require unpopular program cuts or even tax hikes. In the past, Madigan has often sought Republican votes for political cover when passing politically contentious measures. But Republicans blame Madigan and Democrats for Illinois’s troubles already, and more Democrats in the House would give GOP lawmakers less leverage in those negotiations.
Politically, adding more Democrats in the suburbs could shore up the party’s strength at a time when Democrats have been losing seats outside of the Chicago metro area.
More Democrats in the House would give Madigan a freer hand when it comes time next year to redraw the legislative district lines for the next decade. There is widespread concern among Democrats that this year’s Census will undercount the number of residents who are Black, Hispanic, immigrants, low-income or otherwise hard to reach. If so, it would sap Democrats’ strength in legislative bodies like the Illinois House. But if Madigan’s Democrats have more territory to work with, they can cede some seats while still holding a commanding majority.
Adding Democrats to the Illinois House would also give Madigan an easier path to round up the 60 votes he needs to continue as speaker of the House. Madigan has been speaker, except for a two-year stint in the 1990s, since 1983, and it seems unlikely that he would lose that post soon. But eight House Democrats have already called for him to resign his leadership post, and another seven have said he should step down if the allegations in the ComEd corruption investigation are true. If all of them defected, Madigan presumably would only have 59 votes for speaker. Adding more Democrats to the chamber would give him more possible votes to pick up.
And this is most certainly correct…
Finally, Springfield insiders speculate that weakening the Republican caucus could also be a form of political payback by the speaker, after Republican Leader Jim Durkin initiated a process to try to remove Madigan from the House chamber over the allegations in the ComEd investigation. The power company admitted in federal court that it arranged for jobs, contracts and payoffs to people in Madigan’s circle in order to gain favor with the speaker. But federal prosecutors have not charged Madigan with a crime.
But a question that isn’t often asked is: What happens if Madigan’s gains are on the “Meh” side?
Discuss.
- RNUG - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:33 pm:
== What happens if Madigan’s gains are on the “Meh” side? ==
Then it is trying to herd cats.
He’ll have to cut deals with the blocks in his own party (or part of the other party) to get things passed. And he won’t be able to provide much political cover for his own party members.
In other words, business as usual per the last few years.
- lake county democrat - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:37 pm:
A reminder that Governor Pritzker promised to veto a gerrymandered map. Madigan has the numbers to override, but will/would still be interesting to see the so-called reform-minded members fall in line.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:41 pm:
Madigan is getting close to the maximum number of Dems; gains are asymptotic at this point…so, “meh” gains are likely (depending on how one defines “meh”).
Madigan loves to have a majority, and he seems to loathe losing even a single member. Any gains made will be in swing districts, making those new members vulnerable and unlikely to take a tough vote. Big gains or “meh”-sized, it won’t move the needle on what’s doable by much.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:44 pm:
Loved this piece by Daniel Vock, it digs around at the 3D chess that can boil down to “It’s only business” and “I don’t need to wipe everyone out, only my enemies”.
If Madigan gets to 78, 79 seats, that’s 19-20 seats needed to peel to grab the gavel. Still more than possible, but a lose 2, pick up 1, lose another, add one more, it’s a numbers game… plus, Durkin did himself no favors, right now looking like he went after MJM, and missed… now Madigan wants to take it out on Durkin… seat by seat… dollar by dollar.
Plus, it helps Madigan by adding allies… for labor, for social service groups… every Raunerite that hurt labor and social services that Madigan defeats… that helps Madigan allies, no matter if Madigan is around a year from now, two years from now… two *weeks* from now… defeating Raunerites, as Madigan takes it to Durkin.., it’s a windfall for Dem allies, so…
Great read, good insight, good touchstone going into tomorrow.
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:02 pm:
The ILGOP continued move to irrelevance is entirely on them and their lack of political accuity. Durkin has allowed a few ultra right (or something) members to push their agenda on to the state party. The same goes for Bill Brady. The state voted for the democratic governor by a landslide and the democrats have built on that even more.
The ILGOP simply yells at everyone rather than read the room and make a change.
- pool boy - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:11 pm:
” picks up a significant number of seats”, another good reason for term limits.
- SuburbanRepublican - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:28 pm:
MJM would have gone after GOP seats even without Durkin’s attempt to oust him from the House following the ComEd scandal. He’s been a master at it for decades. The ILGOP needs to come up with a new playbook beyond the anti-Madigan campaigns they’ve been running for the last 10 years. It hasn’t worked and we are likely to be in a worse position after this election.
- Just a thought - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:30 pm:
Madigan is not using the elections as “payback.” He’d being going after all those seats with or without the ComEd investigation.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:31 pm:
=== It hasn’t worked and we are likely to be in a worse position after this election.===
Narrator: the HDems are at their zenith of seats in MJM’s turn as Speaker, it’s already worse.
- Jibba - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:34 pm:
===” picks up a significant number of seats”, another good reason for term limits.===
Darn that pesky democracy.
- Define "meh" - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:46 pm:
It depends on what “meh” means. Losses and pickups may result in a wash that would be a victory to some and a defeat to others. Look at the electoral map. He’s fighting to save 3 downstate seats - Bristow, Stuart, Reitz - and two suburban seats that went blue in 2016 but will be red this time - Edly Allan and Pappas. The House Dems could lose 5 seats, but they could also gain 5.
In my mind a “meh” night is net loss of 2. A bad night is a net loss of 3 or more. A wash or more is a victory.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:47 pm:
===A wash or more is a victory===
I didn’t realize that MJM was a commenter. lol
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:54 pm:
=another good reason for term limits.=
LOL, so the citizens of the state vote as they choose and we need to limit that?
Maybe the ILGOP can get a law passed that adds a multiplier of say 25% to the GOP votes? /s
- Powdered Whig - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 4:56 pm:
I don’t think the Speaker is interested in “meh” style gains.
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 5:00 pm:
Imagine the gall of using the House rules Madigan created to investigate systemic corruption in the legislature- pay to play to the tune of millions of dollars to benefit Com Ed.
- walker - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 5:26 pm:
Durkin “payback” is not a thing.
Dependable votes in the House, always count.
- Political fodder - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 5:34 pm:
and another seven have said he should step down if the allegations in the ComEd corruption investigation are true. …..
Why do they say this? ” if true” means its a moot point and he MUST leave…per Illinois law….there isn’t a question at that point.
- frank p - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 5:36 pm:
might be tax hikes no its written in stone everybodys taxes are going up
- Durkin's firkin - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 5:37 pm:
Wait, I thought Madigan was supposed to resign as speaker. “meh” means more of the same with Madigan serving another two years as speaker. More fresh faces in house means a better chance Madigan can be ousted as speaker
- Midwestern - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 6:08 pm:
To be perfectly honest, I did not even realize the GOP was even contesting suburban House seats.
No TV ads–I guess it would be too difficult for Durkin or other GOP “leaders” (insert eye-roll) to pick up the phone to Ken Griffin or to Dick Uihlein and say, “If you really want to kick the legs out from under Madigan and his Merry Band, please send us enough money for TV and a reasonably sophisticated mail campaign ASAP.
Needless to say, the Democratic hypocrisy of running endless ads saying “I will work to clean up Springfield” while the candidates–virtually to a person–refusing to condemn Madigan’s alleged behavior is mind-boggling. Yes, I know Madigan, de facto, paid for all those ads. I also acknowledge that, maybe, these candidates intend to implement an anti-litter campaign once they are sworn into office.
Nonetheless, the key point is the GOP in Illinois simply have no capability to finance campaigns or to execute very basic steps required to generate electoral viability and success.
- Todd - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 6:25 pm:
any of it could be trouble for Durkin
- Anonanonsir - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 7:02 pm:
Mr. Vock seems pretty sanguine about MJM’s prospects. He’s effectively on the ballot elsewhere, and those results may be more significant than what happens in House races.