Illinois recovery barely perceptible
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Institute of Government and Public Affairs…
The U of I Flash Index in October continued its slow, steady recovery from the low point of the post-COVID-19 period. The October index went up to 95.6 from its 95.1 level in September, but the economy is still well below its strength prior to the pandemic.
The impact of the recent resurgence of the virus is not captured in the October data. “The October Flash Index obviously comes at the cusp of potential changes related to the election and the virus. We could see continued, gradual improvement, or another drop in the index, depending on the availability of a vaccine or the possibility of further mandated business closures,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “The short-term impact of the election will likely be less dramatic than many people believe since the economy has a momentum that is difficult to change.”
The Illinois unemployment rate continued its decline from 11.0 percent to 10.2 percent over the last month, but it is still 2.3 percentage points above the national level, but 6.2 percentage points below its April highpoint. After adjusting for inflation, sales and corporate tax receipts were up from the same month last year while individual income tax receipts were down slightly, continuing the pattern of last month. See the full Flash Index Archive.
The Flash Index is normally a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through October 31, 2020. Ad hoc adjustments have been made to deal with the timing of the tax receipts resulting from state and Federal changes in payment dates beginning in March.
Accompanying graph…
The Illinois Flash Index was stuck in the mid 90s for about two years after the 9/11 attacks. That stretch pretty much killed all the budget progress made during the previous decade and we haven’t recovered since.
- Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 2:03 pm:
Can the barely perceptible be recovered?
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 2:38 pm:
The key sentence in the article: “The impact of the recent resurgence of the virus is not captured in the October data.”
The “recovery” will be on hiatus until COVID is under control.
- Captain Obvious - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:18 pm:
Well how did the last quarter show record growth nationally? Imagine how good it might have been without the massive blue state drag.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 2, 20 @ 3:32 pm:
=== blue state drag.===
Head to Alabama, Mississippi, maybe even try Arkansas.
We’re ONE country. One. E Pluribus Unum.
If you are dividing the country by Red or Blue, you’re part of the problem.
To the post,
Since 9/11, the challenges of Illinois;
George Ryan… Rod Blagojevich… both more concerned with staying out of prison, that didn’t work out.
Pat Quinn… made the pension payments, but continued a hollowing out of Illinois government, not a strong fiscal or business friend, turned on labor, not a steady hand, even after getting a vote of confidence after winning his own term.
Bruce Rauner… by nearly every measure, Illinois was worse off with Bruce Rauner… his can the businessman set on ruining state government make it a good place for business? Heck, Rauner played clueless to the B-N auto factory, either purposely or Rauner didn’t care. You can choose.
Here we are, with Pritzker… arguably the best first legislative session for a governor in… well, a long time. Pandemic, fighting those not taking that pandemic seriously, then unemployment, business shutdowns, the virus taking on Illinois.
You look at the past 20 full years, where was the leadership for economic growth? Ten of the years, clouds swirled around our governors, how can growth begin, let alone build on it?