OK, agreed. Now what?
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Molly Parker…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced Monday that he’s imposing new restrictions on Southern Illinois counties in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Prtizker said Region 5, which encompasses Southern Illinois, along with Regions 7 and 8, encompassing Chicago’s south and western suburbs, will enter into Tier 2 mitigations on Wednesday. […]
Rep. Dave Severin, R-Marion, said he continues to have concerns about Pritzker’s mitigation strategy. Severin said he understands the virus is real and a serious health threat; he and his wife both recently recovered from COVID-19. But Severin said he’s been particularly concerned that one sector of the economy — bars and restaurants — have been asked to shoulder the brunt of the sacrifice while IDPH data show there are numerous other potential sources of spread.
Severin is right that taverns and restaurants have been asked to shoulder the burden here. And he’s also right that there are other potential sources of spread.
But I have yet to see anyone making Severin’s arguments (and there are many, so I’m not trying to pick on him) asked whether they support a broad shutdown as an alternative, or if they’re just throwing flak in the air.
* Meanwhile…
The reopening of restaurants, gyms and hotels carries the highest danger of spreading Covid-19, according to a study that used mobile phone data from 98 million people to model the risks of infection at different locations.
Researchers at Stanford University and Northwestern University used data collected between March and May in cities across the U.S. to map the movement of people. They looked at where they went, how long they stayed, how many others were there and what neighborhoods they were visiting from. They then combined that information with data on the number of cases and how the virus spreads to create infection models.
In Chicago, for instance, the study’s model predicted that if restaurants were reopened at full capacity, they would generate almost 600,000 new infections, three times as many as with other categories. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature, also found that about 10% of the locations examined accounted for 85% of predicted infections. […]
The models produced in the study reported Tuesday also suggested that full-blown lockdowns aren’t necessary to hold the virus at bay. Masks, social distancing and reduced capacity all can play a major role in keeping things under control.
Capping occupancy at 20% in locations in the Chicago metro area cut down on predicted new infections in the study by more than 80%. And because the occupancy caps primarily only impacted the number of visits that typically occur during peak hours, the restaurants only lost 42% of patrons overall.
Reducing maximum occupancy numbers, the study suggested, may be more effective than less targeted measures at curbing the virus, while also offering economic benefit. […]
The model also suggests just how effective lock-down measures can be in public spaces by noting infections and the use of those spaces over time as cities put lockdowns into effect.
In Miami, for example, infections modeled from hotels peaked around the same time the city was grabbing headlines for wild spring-break beach parties that prevailed despite the pandemic. But those predictions shrunk significantly as lock-down measures went into effect.
The study is here.
- Dotnonymous - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:49 am:
It’s now…or never…the will to act precedes action…Governor?
- Socially DIstant watcher - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:52 am:
We need to do what we should have done under a national policy to fight this virus. Responsible officials will have to step up, while the haters keep on hating.
- Publius - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:54 am:
So Rep Severin supports that everyone should stay home. We should shut down almost all stores and limit only 1 per household in essential stores. Sports should shut down and so on. Isn’t that what he is saying? Would he support that?
- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:01 pm:
The Republican response to COVID-19 is also known as The Lloyd Christmas Plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4AmLcBLZWY
- Streator Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:03 pm:
Perhaps equally as scary as the virus is that it’s easy for some agency to use mobile phone data to track where people have been, how long they stay, and what neighborhoods they were from.
- Montrose - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:03 pm:
It really bites that the restaurant and bar industry is the one hit hardest by the nature of this health crisis, but it is not as though anyone is out to get them. What these businesses need is substantial support from the government to help them get through this period, not reduced restrictions that allow the spread to grow.
- H-W - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:04 pm:
Piggy-backing here.
It seems most of those arguing for the unalienable rights of business (”businesses are people, my friend”), are misguided in asserting the 14th Amendment gives businesses the right to do as they please.
It seems to me the real issue they are implicitly invoking is the 9th Amendment/10th Amendement dilemma. What rights are reserved to the States, and what rights are reserved to the people.
It is fitting that the 9th Amendment has almost never been invoked, and that the 10th Amendment is almost always evoked by conservative voices. This is a 10th Amendment issue - does the state have the right to impose emergency orders upon the people?
- Bothanspy - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:08 pm:
Frankly, human behavior will not change without an alternative. Restaurants will thumb their noses at any restrictions if they don’t get replacement income. Landlords, likewise, are restricted from being able to exercise that ability. We are failing to protect small landlords while protecting their tenants. It’s patently unfair, but I don’t see that changing until the new Congress is seated.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:09 pm:
It’s so easy to criticize the actions of those who take actions to address a crisis. I’ve yet to see a GOP legislator come up with a strategy to control the pandemic.
They want to be heroes to those hit by the economic impact of mitigation measures. They don’t have to act. As our Oswego Willy excellently points out, Governor’s own. And most in the nation are doing this by taking the pandemic seriously.
So when you have opinion leaders going around telling folks you don’t have to do the hard - or even the easy thing of wear a mask - things to prevent deaths and illnesses, they are going to have too many who act like children and go with the lazy choice of ignoring the actions that are needed.
What is worse is that this last election didn’t seem to repudiate the cowardly politicians who prefer the pandemic to run it’s course through the population.
I was hoping a blue wave would get us a Senate that would vote for the needed assistance to ameliorate the economic impact on those who are suffering the most because of mitigation measures. That didn’t happen. So now we’re seeing out-of-control spread and little stomach to do what’s necessary.
God help us and our families.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:29 pm:
First, - Norseman -, you have my marker.
To the post,
The governor is trying to do what he can with the virus, fighting the virus is the way to get back to where we’d all like to be, and the concerns for businesses, restaurants and bars to the pointed, and look to how there’s real balance, but fighting the virus all the same.
The governor owns his responses, but were gonna get into a phase right now with winter and folks choosing to not be helpful, and it may not be “restaurants and bars” being the biggest spreaders.
My point?
There’s no call to be Aussies or New Zealand to move forward, so if others would like to chime in to be helpful, I know I’m listening… but not to herd immunity or Covidiocy.
- RH - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:42 pm:
To my surprise Oregon seems to be faring better than a lot of other states. Restaurants are not closed just limited in capacity and the wearing of masks seems to be a non issue for the most part. OSHA released new rules that puts some additional enforcement options on the table.
https://osha.oregon.gov/news/2020/Pages/nr2020-38.aspx
- Ebenezer - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:02 pm:
The lack of meaningful federal support is critical here.
In over 30 years in the industry, very few restaurants or bars can survive a 42% drop in guest counts.
Many of these owners will hear the restrictions as: “You need to face business and personal bankruptcy, to make our community a bit safer. We hope you can reopen before you run out of money, but no guarantees.”
Faced with that prospect, its not surprising that folks are attracted to arguments that they are not a source of spread, or it doesn’t matter, or the government doesn’t have the power etc.
Often federalism is great. Here it is a disaster.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:21 pm:
Representative Severin’s district is home to a significant number of bars and restaurants who are refusing to follow any of the mitigation strategies. Yes, it is unfortunate that public health burdens are placed on establishments that serve food and drink — but that’s the point. We have asked our governments to regulate drinking and dining establishments repeatedly throughout history in order to put public health before what is most convenient for proprietors of food and drink.
So few of the small, independent, or family owned businesses in Representative Severin’s district are even trying to comply with the COVID-19 mitigation efforts.
It’s hard to have any sympathy for a business that hosts a super spreader event every night and calls any effort to stop them oppression.
- anon2 - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 2:04 pm:
I agree with Candy because I’m pro-life: Saving lives is a higher priority than saving businesses.
- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 4:41 pm:
==- RH - Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:42 pm:==
Illinois does not have a state OSHA for private businesses. It is under federal OSHA. Federal law allows states to do it themselves wholly, partially (government workers only), or use federal OSHA.
https://safety.blr.com/workplace-safety-news/safety-administration/OSHA-Occupational-Safety-and-Health-Administration/Federal-vs.-state-OSHA-Do-you-understand-the-diffe/