A handy, peer-reviewed COVID-19 “weather map”
Friday, Nov 13, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* According to this, there’s a 48 percent chance in Sangamon County of encountering someone with COVID-19 at a gathering of 10 people…
* LA Times…
How likely is it you’ll encounter at least one person who is infected with the coronavirus if you go to a bar in Denver? What about a 100-person wedding in Baltimore? Or a Thanksgiving dinner with 25 guests in Los Angeles?
The answers to these questions — and many more — can be found on the free, intuitive and now peer-reviewed COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool. Built by a team of researchers at Georgia Tech, the tool is designed to help policymakers, event planners and individuals easily grasp the risks associated with gatherings of different sizes throughout the United States and, increasingly, across the world. […]
The COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool was conceived in March by Joshua Weitz, a quantitative biologist at Georgia Tech who wanted an easy way to quantify the risk of attending events of various sizes in different locations. […]
“In a way it’s like a weather map,” said Clio Andris, a professor of city and regional planning and interactive computing at Georgia Tech who helped Weitz build out the tool. “It can tell you what the risk is that it will rain, but it can’t tell you if you’ll get wet. That depends on if you carry an umbrella, or if you choose not to go outside at all.”
Play around with it and tell us what you find.
- Ok - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:22 am:
Like any good data visualization, its results are immediately apparent.
- Bruce( no not him) - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:29 am:
well, that’s certainly depressing.
- cermak_rd - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:32 am:
Ouch, we’re going to our vacation home soon in Iowa. Our vac county has a 98% chance! we have to get the roof fixed so we have to go. We have explained to the roofer that we will be masked and expect his workers to be also if they come in the house or interact with us. Obviously when they are working on the roof it’s not relevant.
- JB13 - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:45 am:
– Tell us what you find –
That I’d much rather be in Florida or Texas right now
- OneMan - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:47 am:
Ironically the county where my kid goes to school in Kansas is doing better than Champaign county with all of the U of I testing.
Also would be curious how much the ‘really red’ at lower gathering numbers in the midwest is driven by meat processing plants or a single large employer.
- cermak_rd - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:50 am:
I’m curious how you get pockets like Petroleum County, MT a little 1% county surrounded by red and orange or Hansford County, Tx.
- internals - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:53 am:
very counter-intuitive that the most population intensive areas on coasts have a lesser percentage
- Amalia - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:55 am:
No Lincoln County in Illinois (the old joke) but Lincoln Counties elsewhere and chances of encountering the virus in others in… North Carolina 71% Wyoming 72%, Oregon 5% and Idaho 99% . terrifying look at the use.
- fs - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 9:58 am:
It looks like the risk level is high if you are in a group of 10 or more in Pike County.
Of course, your odds of seeing 10 people total, much less in the same place, are pretty low there.
- flea - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:06 am:
fs,
You never heard of deer camps in Pike county?
- Loop Lady - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:09 am:
Read the LA Times regularly…
If this doesn’t convince you to wear a mask in public and
avoid large gatherings, you deserve what happens to you.
Your grandma and go workers fo not…
- Drake Mallard - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:18 am:
Unfortunately this map works great. And made my hair a little whiter
- Bruce( no not him) - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:32 am:
Unless its a glitch or bad date, Audrain County Mo has less than 1% chance. Sounds good.
- Norseman - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:37 am:
82% in COVIDIOT led St. Charles County. Worse than St. Louis County.
- Proud Sucker - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:50 am:
My daughter helped with this project (many banned punctuation marks) I hope this will reach a few more folks.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:51 am:
I was going to make a joke about there only being 10 people in those Lincoln Counties, but then I started looking at their populations at it got a little less funny.
WY: 19,434
NC: 86,111
ID: 5,360
OR: 49,962
In a related note, I read an article this week about a person in Walmart in Oregon who was refusing to wear a mask and refused to leave, and the Walmart employees contacted the police — as Oregon regulations require them to do, and the police came and arrested the woman for trespass. Just. Like. That.
That puts their 5% in context.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:52 am:
So at an office of just 10 people, in most of the state, you have a 1 in 3 chance or more of coming in contact with COVID on any given day right now?
Wow.
- Frank talks - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:58 am:
Why are we listening to scientists from GA, looking at data and being force fed facts?
Let us make our own decisions ‘Merica
- TTH - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 11:55 am:
==So at an office of just 10 people, in most of the state, you have a 1 in 3 chance or more of coming in contact with COVID on any given day right now?===
Do you live with anyone? Take public transportation? Stop at the grocery store? When you add up everything you do during the day your odds are higher than 1 in 3 of coming in contact with a positive person during that same day.
- Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 11:57 am:
@hisgirl - My office has just 10 employees and right now three of them are positive. I’ve got antibodies from an undiagnosed case in February. But still nervous and now I’m the only person in the building.
- thechampaignlife - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 12:25 pm:
So the chances in those schools filled with hundreds of kids???
- Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 12:58 pm:
The narrative says “Based on seroprevalence data, we assume there are ten times more cases than are being reported (10:1 ascertainment bias).”
Asking the experts - does that mean with 550,000 reported cases, IL may already be about 1/2 exposed?
- Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 1:50 pm:
Six - That is a very good question and I’ve been pondering it this week. I’ll leave it to the experts but I was wondering if the large number of unreported cases was more realistic when we had a very small testing capacity.
100k tests a day feels like it should be enough to identify the cases but you’d need all 100k a day to be rapid tests to help slow and stop the spread.
But would love to know what medical experts say about the hidden positive numbers. CDC now gives you a 90 day window post symptoms to pretty much go and live and not have to re-quarentine if your’ a close contact.
- Nearly Normal - Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 2:52 pm:
Wow. Just wow.