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Way to go, Sangamon County!
Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller * Springfield is in IDPH Region 3, which has an average positivity rate of 9.5 percent. After some initial and completely unnecessary and ill-informed reluctance, Sangamon County and Springfield are now doing a pretty good job at not only flattening the curve, but bending it downward. The county’s 7-day rolling average test positivity rate was at 13.2 percent on December 1. As mentioned elsewhere today, it’s now at 8.4 percent. That’s a 32 percent reduction in two weeks. Keep up the good work! * Adams County is even lower, at 6.8 percent, but the county’s rate is actually increasing over the past week, when it was at 4.7 percent. That’s a 45 percent increase, if you’re keeping track. Brown County is at 13.5 percent, down two points from 15.5 percent on December 1. Calhoun County is trending the wrong way. It’s up to 20.8 percent from 17.3 percent, but they’re not doing a lot of testing there. Cass County has taken a slight dip to 16.9 percent from 17.1 percent. Christian County is at 12.8 percent, down a bit from 14.7 on December 1. Greene County is at 11.8 percent, which sounds high, but that’s down from 19.3 percent two weeks ago. Hancock County is at 17.8 percent, up significantly in two weeks from 12.4 percent. Jersey County’s rate stands at 14.9 percent, about the same as its 15.8 rate two weeks ago. Logan County is down to 8.2 percent, from 15.4 percent on December 1. Macoupin County is at 10.3 percent, down slightly from the 12.8 percent rate two weeks ago. Mason County has plummeted from 14.4 percent on December 1 down to 7.9 percent. Menard went from 12.7 percent on December 1 to 9.3 percent yesterday. Montgomery is basically unchanged, at 8.5 percent compared to 9.2 percent on December 1. Morgan is down a point, to 9.2 percent from 10.3 percent. Pike is up a bit, from 12.6 percent to 13.4 percent. Schuyler County went from a 6 percent positivity rate on December 1st to a 23.3 percent rate a few days ago to the most recent 18.6 percent. And Scott is down from 6.3 percent to 4.9 percent. I don’t know why I just put myself through all this, but there you go.
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- Jimbo26 - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:21 am:
Thanks for your work keeping us up to date on Covid. Good to have accurate info from someone.
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:22 am:
Yeah us…
Brown, Schuyler, Logan, Christian, Morgan, Pike Counties all have a correctional center. That might contribute to local spread and spikes.
- SoxFan - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:30 am:
==I don’t know why I just put myself through all this, but there you go.==
I’m getting flashbacks to Wolf Blitzer and John King on that stupid big board for the what felt like the longest week in history
- muon - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:32 am:
The side comment about Calhoun and testing is applicable to all the smaller counties in the state. The daily positivity rates are prone to fluctuate a lot due to their small size and small fraction that are tested each day.
Illinois tests a bit under 1% of its population of 12.7 million each day. Even if Calhoun tested its population at the same rate as the state they would record about 40 tests a day or 280 tests in a 7-day period. If we assume they could test at the same rate as the state, then a change of 3% in their positivity rate is a difference of 8 positive tests over a week or about 1 a day. Statistically that is easily due to random chance. It’s why regional statistics are far more meaningful than individual downstate county statistics.
- Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:45 am:
Related - I speak with my Dad every weekend who honestly believes that the Governor is imposing these restrictions simply to prove to his base that the Democratic Party is the party of power, and that nobody gets COVID in public places. He honestly believes that and won’t be convinced otherwise. He cheers on the businesses that ignore the restrictions.
- EssentialWorkingMom - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:55 am:
Thank you, Rich!!
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 11:58 am:
We’re looking for “good” where we can find it.
It’s the things to change the trend that should give us reason to cheer, and also continue the work.
It’s good to see some curve trending downward.
- fs - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:07 pm:
Sangamon County’s 7 day average looks to be 7.7% with today’s numbers
- Petey L. - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:10 pm:
So, all those predictions of an big increase of cases due to Thanksgiving get togethers were inaccurate.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:20 pm:
Petey, we’re not as stupid as you think we are or that you apparently are.
Cause and effect, dimwit.
- Serenity Now - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:30 pm:
It was a prediction of what would happen if we didn’t mitigate the spread of disease with masks, social distancing and not traveling. People listened. Is basic cause and effect lost on you?
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:55 pm:
=== So, all those predictions of an big increase of cases due to Thanksgiving get togethers were inaccurate. ===
Again:
https://tinyurl.com/y34e2cyk
https://tinyurl.com/yb4fnuw5
- thoughts matter - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 12:58 pm:
Petey
You know that deaths lag behind cases right? Have you seen the daily death counts for the last couple weeks? Isn’t that enough of a tragedy for you? This isn’t a hoax or a joke.
- Thanksgiving Surge - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:01 pm:
To be fair, there was a pretty good drumbeat for weeks warning people not to travel or gather for Thanksgiving. Then there were lots of stories showing O’Hare packed with people and further claims that people weren’t following the mitigation advice. Now that no surge occurred, commenters are attributing the lack of surge to successful mitigation efforts. What about the stories showing packed airports and reporting on gatherings? I don’t think it’s fair to claim such clear causation between the mitigation and lack of surge. It seems convenient to credit the mitigations when the trend goes down but claim that people aren’t following the mitigations when the trend increases.
- Seven - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:04 pm:
So when does Region 6 get released from the mitigation? They’ve earned it.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:08 pm:
===What about the stories showing packed airports and reporting on gatherings?===
I also saw stories about empty airports and the gatherings stuff was mostly random reports and not data.
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:09 pm:
I think its hurting the cause too when Dr. Ezike starts talking about the “surge” and if we have seen one or not and keeps pushing out the time we need to wait. First its 14 days, and its lets count from the Sunday after Thanksgiving and yesterday its two or three incubation cycles.
Look, prior mitigations worked. Lots of people got the message to mask up and stay home. Some didn’t - so some of them got sick.
But the current numbers and trend isn’t what it was 30 days ago. So tell people “good job, and you’ve got one more holiday to go”. Time to fess up and admit, for lots of reasons, the surge didn’t occur.
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:18 pm:
Packed Airports? Data says not so much…
TSA Screening / Year over year.
11/29/2020 1,176,091 2,882,915
11/28/2020 964,630 2,648,268
11/27/2020 820,399 1,968,137
11/26/2020 560,902 1,591,158
11/25/2020 1,070,967 2,624,250
11/24/2020 912,090 2,435,170
- Dysfunction Junction - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:18 pm:
Petey - I’m in Sangamon County and cancelled my plans to host out-of-town company to help lower the rolling averages. I have friends here who did the same. So those predictions/warnings may actually have done some good.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:19 pm:
=== I don’t think it’s fair to claim such clear causation between the mitigation and lack of surge==
So, what was it? Magic?
One word: Ohio
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:21 pm:
Packed Airports? Data says not so much…
TSA Screening / Year over year.
*Tired to clean up the chart a little bit for formatting..
11/29/2020 1,176,091 (2019) 2,882,915
11/28/2020 964,630 (2019) 2,648,268
11/27/2020 820,399 (2019) 1,968,137
11/26/2020 560,902 (2019) 1,591,158
11/25/2020 1,070,967 (2019) 2,624,250
11/24/2020 912,090 (2019) 2,435,170
- AC - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:24 pm:
Now the we proved, yet again, that the mitigations were effective, let’s open everything up. /S
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:40 pm:
NYT - The country reached a terrible milestone this week, with more than 3,000 deaths announced across the country on Wednesday, Dec. 9. And conditions continue to worsen.
Many midsize cities are reporting deaths at their highest rates of the pandemic. We’ve seen weekly death records in the counties that include: Pueblo, Colo.; Chattanooga, Tenn.; South Bend, Ind.; Springfield, Ill.; Cumberland, Md.
- WLDS News - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 1:55 pm:
Since this is our territory…
Jacksonville in Morgan County enacted a mask ordinance last night, but it requires the mayor to declare a health emergency to cite anyone for not wearing a mask.
No testing in Calhoun, period. No hospitals or even medical clinics in the county that I’m even aware of. They go to Greene, Jersey, or Pike/Scott to get tested for health reasons.
As someone already noted - DHS facility in Rushville in Schuyler County. They reported a massive outbreak at that facility as well as a LTC facility on Friday last week resulting in their huge surge. Jacksonville has a prison, which has had over 200 people get sick in 2 surges. Western Correctional Facility in Brown Co. has had small surge of numbers.
Jersey has maintained numbers but not enforced any tier 3 mitigations. Last I checked, there was still indoor dining in some places down there. Local health department/authorities don’t care. Pritzker Sucks signs everywhere…
Pike is currently dealing with an overabundance of hospitalizations. County Health Dept. says 13, which is a lot for their small hospital in Pittsfield. They have tried to coordinate with Blessing in Quincy, but they, too, are having staffing and bed issues.
Cass has had several LTC facility outbreaks as well as off-and-on outbreaks at the JBS Pork Plant. Currently dealing with community spread transmission moreso than congregate setting spread.
Morgan and Cass have disproportionate amounts of LTC facilities compared to population. Check those numbers.
Scott numbers are low because they have small amount of testing going on. They only report COVID numbers once a week as opposed to daily updates from the other counties. Remember, this county was the last to report a case in the state. They like to think they are immune to the outside world there sometimes. Sun-Times article kind of portrayed the area perfectly when they went there early in the pandemic.
Greene’s Health Department has been busting their behind. They just aren’t getting much help from the public. They have one LTC facility in the county, and it has had the majority of the county’s reported deaths. They just got a new Health Dept. director at the first of the year and she’s done a great job despite all that’s happened. Many elected officials are the source of that comment.
Macoupin said today that their biggest problem is community spread into the LTC’s. Most of the community spread has occurred near the more suburban portion of the county to the south, which butts against the Metro East.
- walker - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 2:19 pm:
Cool Papa Bell 1:21
Thanks so much for showing your work. Data show Thanksgiving air travel way less than last year. And feared surge didn’t happen.
Good job general public.
- Still Waiting - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 2:21 pm:
The mitigations prevented a horrible surge. People now pretending there was no cause and effect due to these measures baffle me. I felt absolutely horrible cancelling our family’s Thanksgiving, but I knew it had to be done to keep my parents and extended family safe. By the end of that weekend, 3 family members who would have been at that Thanksgiving dinner if we’d had it were sick and had tested positive for COVID. Thankfully, that number has stayed at 3 rather than the 23 it likely would have been otherwise.
- Ginhouse Tommy - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 2:33 pm:
Just in case anybody missed the story about a RI woman who told her Dr. she hosted a Thanksgiving dinner for 22 people. Turns out everyone at the dinner got the virus, some with serious symptoms. A little restraint goes a long way. Just sayin.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 3:18 pm:
==So when does Region 6 get released from the mitigation? They’ve earned it.==
Why in the world would you stop what you are doing now when things are just starting to turn around? You keep it turned around before you even think of easing up.
- CapnCrunch - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 4:23 pm:
“Packed Airports? Data says not so much…”
You’re comparing apples to oranges. In this case, traffic during a pandemic to traffic in normal conditions. You should be comparing traffic during the time of the pandemic. Your data starts the day before Thanksgiving. You should have included data from the Friday before Thanksgiving, November 20. On that day 1,047,934 traveled which was the highest number in a single day since March 16. About 495,000 more people boarded a plane on the weekend before Thanksgiving than the previous weekend, 300,593 more on the day before Thanksgiving than the same day the previous week.
- yinn - Tuesday, Dec 15, 20 @ 5:41 pm:
==Cass has had several LTC facility outbreaks as well as off-and-on outbreaks at the JBS Pork Plant.==
I was talking today to a friend in a county neighboring Cass and he says the community spread from meat processors and particularly JBS could use more attention.