Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Cook Political Report editor discusses some remap ideas
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Cook Political Report editor discusses some remap ideas

Monday, Mar 15, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* US House editor of the Cook Political Report…


Notice that he keeps the current Latino district intact. There will be pressure to create two Latinx districts in the coming mapmaking process. Also, the chair of the House Redistricting Committee is Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez and the Senate’s Redistricting Committee chair is Sen. Omar Aquino.

He does have a point about creating another Downstate Democratic district by correcting the Dems’ 2011 mistake and no longer splitting all of their Metro East turf into two districts. He would take away some GOP voters from Cheri Bustos and give her a few more Dems. Lauren Underwood does even better in this map.

* Politico

Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s congressional seat could be eliminated when Illinois conducts its remap, according to the Cook Report’s David Wasserman.

Taking out the current 16th Congressional District makes “geographic sense,” Wasserman said in his subscription-only report. […]

The 16th District stretches from Indiana up to the border with Wisconsin and touches the fast-growing Chicago exurbs and some downstate districts. “More rural/GOP parts of it could go to Rep. Darin LaHood’s 18th CD and Rep. Mary Miller’s 15th CD, while its Rockford suburbs and the liberal university town of DeKalb could go to Democratic seats,” writes Wasserman.

* Back to Wasserman…


Thoughts?

…Adding… Related…

* Illinois Legislative Leaders Separately Discuss What is a ‘Fair Map’

* Changing face of Illinois Democrats evident in Madigan’s successors

       

49 Comments
  1. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:21 am:

    I support the creation of an Eastern Block congressional district.


  2. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:29 am:

    JB promising to veto any map not drawn fairly is yet another ruse


  3. - slow down - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am:

    The entire concept and process is embarrassing but with Republican run states certain to aggressively manipulate the maps it follows that Democratic run states should do so as well.

    The risk of failing to do so is to empower the insurrectionist far right which controls the house republican conference in DC.


  4. - Roman - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am:

    The potential for a second Latino seat is the big question mark. The pressure to draw one is going to be pretty strong, particularly because it’s going to be tough to draw many more Latino GA seats. It would really scramble the Chicago area congressional map, probably leaving Marie Newman without a district. The ball is in Chuy’s court.


  5. - Sweet N Sour - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am:

    Isn’t there already an Eastern Block congressional district?


  6. - Cluster - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:34 am:

    === probably leaving Marie Newman without a district. ===

    One could only hope.


  7. - Chicagonk - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:35 am:

    So the ear muff district would remain as is in this scenario?


  8. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:45 am:

    The only goal that Dems should have is securing 13 districts they know they will have Dem congressional members.

    They can draw it to have the tendencies (or trends) work their way to 14-3… but why be so greedy when it wasn’t to long ago that a 13-4 outcome would be “most ideal”, and not the “base line”


  9. - Donnie Elgin - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:46 am:

    This is one reason elected officials enjoy such low approval numbers. Purely partisan mapping with the sole purpose of party majority is so far from “good government” or “serving the people”. Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.


  10. - Perrid - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:48 am:

    @Chicagonk, “as in” might not be quite true, but it definetely still exists.


  11. - John Lopez - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:50 am:

    2nd Hispanic district? My guess is the 8th and/or 14th, currently represented by Raja and Underwood. Succession planning would have Cristina Castro ready to serve 8th/14th when Raja/Underwood run for Durbin’s Senate seat. The other Hernandez in state House, Barbara Hernandez of Aurora who’s only 28, could be seen as future congressional material when Foster calls it a career in 11th. That could bring as many as 3 Hispanics in IL congressional delegation in next 10 years.


  12. - Fav Human - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:59 am:

    potential for a second Latino seat is the big question mark … probably leaving Marie Newman without a district.

    And if I am on a redrawing committee, I would care why? How many chips does she have to call in?

    Seems like the ultimate of no brainers.


  13. - EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:14 am:

    =They could stuff East St. Louis, Alton and Belleville into Davis (R)’s #IL13,=

    While they’re at it, could they also try to pull off thinly extending IL13 all the way down to Carbondale (and maybe Cairo)–while keeping Bost’s Murphysboro in the 12th? Even if by then it meant dropping more of the GOP-leaning rural areas in the current 13th (e.g., Greene, Jersey, parts of Macoupin) or even giving up BloNo or C/U to either Bustos or even bringing a Chicago-area Dem district south to either of the Twin Cities?


  14. - John Lopez - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:17 am:

    Wasserman also tweeted (Rich didn’t include) a hypothesis according to his conversations w/ IL Democrats of swapping the 11th and 14th districts, with Underwood’s new 14th being focused to her Will County base while absorbing Joliet to protect her, and Foster gaining much of McHenry County, plus areas he represented during his 2 terms in Congress including Fermi Lab in the 14th. Underwood’s Farm Team PAC is backing candidates in Joliet, Aurora, North Aurora and DeKalb for the April 6 local elections which may indicate she’s trying to build name ID outside current 14th this spring.


  15. - Fair Maps - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:22 am:

    If the Dems do this hypothetical remap they are all but ensuring Kinzinger runs statewide which I don’t think they’d want to happen.


  16. - Paddyrollingstone - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:22 am:

    “This is one reason elected officials enjoy such low approval numbers. Purely partisan mapping with the sole purpose of party majority is so far from “good government” or “serving the people”. Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.”

    Donnie - I don’t quibble with you that elected officials have low approval numbers but this redistricting stuff is not why. Its all inside baseball to the voters and only interesting to hard core fans of politics like the readers of CapFax.


  17. - supplied_demand - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:23 am:

    ==Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.==

    But only one party has drafted and passed legislation to end it.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-rethink-u-s-voting-system-what-s-massive-h-n1260284


  18. - Harris - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:24 am:

    The only thing certain in the remap process is that the Dems in the legislature will maximize minority participation and won’t be losing Dem leaning seats unless the Gov vetoes the Bill pursuant to a “fairness” rationale. Assuming someone;s Congressional District will be targeted or the map will be just tweaked here and there is just a simple assumption. And we all know happens when you ASSUME.


  19. - Julian Perez - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:33 am:

    “but ensuring Kinzinger runs statewide which I don’t think they’d want to happen”

    I said it about a month ago on these pages.

    Look for Lauf and Kinzinger to dispute the primary for GOP Govenor


  20. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:35 am:

    === Look for Lauf and Kinzinger to dispute the primary for GOP Govenor===

    You were wrong a month ago. You’re wrong now.

    Why run for governor with all the challenges Pritzker is facing that you’d inherit?

    Where ya going to come up with $175 million, and keep Trumpkins in the fold as you run towards the center?

    Lauf is not a serious person.

    Taking Lauf serious in any way is foolish thinking


  21. - lake county democrat - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:36 am:

    So Governor Pritzker, after vowing not to gerrymander the map, is going to sign an even *more* gerrymandered map?


  22. - Julian Perez - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:39 am:

    “Lauf is not a serious person”

    Yet, according to Dave Wasserman’s tweet, many Dems “figure he’d lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway”


  23. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:41 am:

    ===Yet===

    … nothing you typed made Lauf any more of a serious person.

    Lauf retweets conspiracy theorists, an ardent Trumpkin, carpetbagger, seemingly trying to set up the grift and “choosing” a district to do so by seemingly “relevant” only to herself.

    Anything else?


  24. - John Lopez - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:46 am:

    === Taking Lauf serious in any way is foolish thinking ===

    We’ll see how Lauf’s event in Rockford tomorrow night, headlined by Scott Presler and Kim Klacik, plays out.

    People who don’t take Lauf seriously are letting their own unfounded fears prejudice their thinking.


  25. - Yep - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:57 am:

    Wonder who they have in mind to run in that 15th congressional district on the right. Yep seems like a fair map.


  26. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:59 am:

    ===Yep seems like a fair map. ===

    You’d be hard-pressed to convince any Democrat to include reapportionment in the Fair Map debate as long as other states are gerrymandering for the other party.


  27. - Downstate left-wing libertarian - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:23 am:

    Looking at that map makes my head hurt. Depending on where the furthest most point of the 13th is, I will be in one of three bad options, the 13th, 15th, or 16th. I would be okay with extending Bustos to Blo-No / Northern part of McLean County.


  28. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:33 am:

    A statewide poll CHANGE Illinois commissioned found that an overwhelming 75 percent of voters support the creation of an independent commission to draw political maps.

    The poll of 603 likely Illinois voters was conducted by Fako Research and Margin of Era Opinion Research.

    The poll also found voters strongly agree — 74 percent — that Gov. J.B. Pritzker should work to help push for getting a question about the creation of such a commission on the November general election ballot.

    https://www.changeil.org/2020/03/poll-shows-voters-overwhelming-want-governor-pritzker-to-push-for-fair-maps/

    Way back in 2018 JB actually promised to back an independent commission to draw the maps.

    In discussing his support for fair maps earlier this year, Pritzker stated, “We should amend the (Illinois) constitution to create an independent commission to draw legislative maps.” And there is no reason to doubt his support of reform as genuine. Pritzker gave $50,000 to the 2014 fair maps initiative, throwing his support behind such an initiative long before he ran for governor.
    Pritzker even pledged that as governor he would veto a gerrymandered map should one come to his desk.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-perspec-remap-illinois-reform-jb-pritzker-1109-story.html


  29. - dirksen - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:37 am:

    not sure the Gov would be so inclined to support a map that leaves Kinzinger or Davis with the only option of up or out.


  30. - Cowboy Bbb - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:52 am:

    Davis could win a gop Guv primary and beat J.B. .


  31. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:55 am:

    =You’d be hard-pressed to convince any Democrat to include reapportionment in the Fair Map debate as long as other states are gerrymandering for the other party.=

    Yep, and guess what? At least in Illinois, the GA controls the process, so that map thinking goes down to the legislature, because you can’t get the Federal representation you want without the state representation to draw the maps.


  32. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:55 am:

    ===Davis could win===

    Why would he want to be governor?

    Davis also voted twice against Trump’s impeachmentS, voted against Covid relief, isn’t Davis also pro-life?

    Hmm.


  33. - low level - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:13 pm:

    Love it. Jam them.


  34. - Pundent - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:19 pm:

    =Davis could win a gop Guv primary and beat J.B.=

    Only if the Eastern Bloc accomplishes their goal of secession. Donald Trump is an albatross for any Republican in the greater Chicago area particularly for those that voted against his impeachment. Couple that with Pritzker’s ability to fund his reelection and it’s hard to see anyone in the ILGOP - today - that presents a credible threat.


  35. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:19 pm:

    If I were an aspirant GOP politician and I wanted to be governor of a state, I’m pretty confident I’d find an excuse to move to a different state where the GOP caucuses in the state legislature haven’t been relegated to permanent super minority status with no foreseeable end in sight, and certainly no realistic road map to changing it.

    I’m not suggesting it’s not feasible for a Republican to win state wide in Illinois, but it’s going to require a series of very unlikely things to occur and funding that can only be found in the personal fortunes of hedge fund megalomaniacs. The IL GOP can always day dream, but the electorate doesn’t have a pallet for what the GOP is serving, and the IL GOP has no interest in serving a majority of Illinois’ body politic.


  36. - Blue Dog - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:23 pm:

    Think about the joys of being governor. Pension debt has gone from $270 Bn to$315 Bn during unprecedented stock market gains. Bill backlog still $10 Bn plus. No tax increase in the foreseeable future. It’s not a job I would want.


  37. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:28 pm:

    voted against Covid relief?

    Both previous Covid bills had huge bipartisan support- 2 trillion in March of 2020 and the 900 billion in December, because they were about COVID relief.

    Every Republican voted against the 1.9 trillion (40 percent of the total Federal budget in an ordinary year) because it was obviously a lot more on the liberal wish list than just Covid relief.

    All Republicans know all of that I am sure,


  38. - Nathan - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:29 pm:

    For those complaining that this is gerrymandering on the Democratic side, then ask your Republican friends to support HR1 in Congress. Among the many voting reforms is the requirement for an independent redistricting commission in every state.


  39. - Nick - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:43 pm:

    My only critique is you can make the 17/13 a lot better, though obviously quite a bit more ugly.

    Have the 13th she’d its rural areas and Bloomington for more of Springfield and Metroeast. Have the 17th shed its rural areas and snake it to Bloomington. You can get up with two very skinny districts that vote something Clinton +10 in 2016 and presumably even more for Biden in 2020.

    Though that’d likely be a stretch for the fairness angle.


  40. - truthteller - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:45 pm:

    bottom line people like Rodney Davis have to go, the guy been nothing but a political hack from day one and has never worked a real job in his life outside of flipping burgers at his dad/d McDonalds. is a bought and paid for conservative as almost all are


  41. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:45 pm:

    ===headlined by Scott Presler and Kim Klacik===

    Who?


  42. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:48 pm:

    === voted against Covid relief?===

    The relief for restaurants, Davis voted no.

    The checks to families, Davis voted no.

    Extended unemployment insurance, Davis voted no.

    Help for Illinois munis and the state to offset covid costs, Davis voted no.

    Shall I go on?


  43. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:54 pm:

    - John Lopez -

    If you’re flacking for Lauf, make sure you get money up front.

    If you’re not, dude, might as well give her your password and let her tweet directly from it, lol

    ===Scott Presler===

    Isn’t this the guy who was called out for his racist thoughts of Muslims?

    Your touting a person that Muslims are accusing of racist thoughts as a supporter of Lauf?

    That’s odd.


  44. - Blue state - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:59 pm:

    “people like Rodney Davis have to go”

    Truthteller,
    Rodney beat Gillin 2012, and people opined that Rodney didn’t face a “real opponent”.

    In 2014, he took on Ann Callis, daughter of a judge, and one who would “take back the seat”, particularly since National Dems made it a high target. He won with 59% of the vote.

    In 2016, they said that Callis was tainted in 2014, because she and her father were Madison County judges. So the Dems put up Mark Wicklund, a Madison County Board Member. Davis won 59% of the vote

    In 2018, Betsy Londrigan was the savior for the district. Well funded. Good background. Most on Capitol Fax predicted that Davis was done. Davis prevailed.

    In 2020, Betsy ran again. This time was supposed to be a shoo-in….just because. Davis won by 9%.

    Despite all the protestations of Davis on this board, the people of his district have refused to replace him even when the Democrats put up their next “dream candidate”.


  45. - Demoralized - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 1:07 pm:

    ==All Republicans know all of that I am sure,==

    And as a person who incessantly likes to quote polls, you would also know that a majority of people backed the most recent bill.


  46. - ILNative - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 2:32 pm:

    If Rodney does get drawn out, will he take a crack at becoming governor or senator? He can pass off as a moderate Republican, but he is anti abortion and anti gun control. Every nominee that has won in general has been pro choice or supportive of gun control. Don’t know how this will do for him in Chicagoland area.


  47. - Say What? - Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 4:18 pm:

    The relief for restaurants, Davis voted no.

    The checks to families, Davis voted no.

    Extended unemployment insurance, Davis voted no.

    Help for Illinois munis and the state to offset covid costs, Davis voted no.

    Yes, please do. Those items would have passed with bipartisan support. its the other 80%….


  48. - Lynn S. - Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:13 am:

    I have the misfortune of having “Where’s Rodney?” as my Congress critter.

    Anyone who thinks “Where’s Rodney?” could win a statewide contest needs to share what s/he is smoking with the rest of us.

    Look at the numbers “Where’s Rodney?” gets in Champaign-Urbana in each of his races.

    He’d do that poorly, or worse, in Chicago and the collars.

    And between Chicago, the collars, Champaign-Urbana, and probably Bloomington-Normal, he’d get blown out.

    The “Where’s Rodney?” cheerleaders need to remember that land doesn’t vote; people do.

    And there simply aren’t enough dumb people in Illinois to power “Where’s Rodney?” over the line as governor or senator.

    Now, if the counties that make up the Eastern Bloc manage to secede, or if “Where’s Rodney?” moves to Indiana/Iowa/Wisconsin/Missouri, he might win in one of those areas.

    But there aren’t enough stupid people in Illinois–as Illinois is currently organized–for “Where’s Rodney?” to win a statewide race.


  49. - Lynn S. - Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:34 am:

    I’m not a Twitter person, so it’s kind of hard for me to make sense of those maps shown. I’d really benefit from some county lines or city names being added to the proposed maps.

    Why can’t they draw a map with a district from roughly Kankakee (or the South suburbs) to Champaign-Urbana that would be safe for a Democrat to win and hold?

    I think I can pretty safely say that about 80,000 of my fellow C-U citizens would have even more problems with Mary Miller (or someone of her ilk) as our congress critter, than we do with “Where’s Rodney?”.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* Reader comments closed for the holidays
* And the winners are…
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Update to previous editions
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Report: Far-right Illinois billionaires may have skirted immigration rules
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards (Updated)
* Energy Storage Brings Cheaper Electricity, Greater Reliability
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller