* Morgan Greene at the Tribune…
Illinois’ climate is swiftly changing, becoming warmer and wetter and signaling long-term shifts that could push people, cities and ecosystems to the brink. If the planet fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, what’s ahead could be more worrisome.
In an extensive new report released Tuesday, the Nature Conservancy details how Illinois’ climate has transformed and looks forward to what more change might mean for the state’s agriculture, human health and already-stressed ecosystems. […]
Even after curbing carbon emissions to meet certain bench marks, the changes in Illinois by 2100 could be stark: average annual temperatures warming 4 to 9 degrees, a month of 95-degree or higher temperatures, 3 more inches of spring rain, more flooding, and compounding health risks from heat, waterborne pathogens and diseases carried by mosquitoes and ticks. Not to mention the mental strain of living through it all. […]
Increased carbon dioxide levels may benefit soybean crops in the short term, but as drought and heat intensify, elevated levels may make things worse. Corn yields are likely to be reduced by 2050 and may be particularly vulnerable to warming nighttime temperatures. Some planting zones may shift north.
With increasing precipitation, a wet spring could delay planting. In 2019, among the wettest years on record , about 1.2 million acres of corn and soybeans went unplanted, the assessment notes. Wetter weather can also cause erosion, which can make soil less resilient to extreme weather.
Nuisances — weeds, pests and disease — may also become greater problems, requiring more applications of control measures, including pesticides.
* From the report…
Climate change in the form of increased precipitation and rainfall intensity tend to increase nutrient loads in rivers. However, other factors (e.g., wetland restoration) can also influence riverine nutrient loads. Combined sewer outflows (CSOs) affect water quality in urban streams and rivers and Lake Michigan in the Chicago region. Both CSOs and increased overland flooding cause environmental damage and public health hazards, such as increased exposure to infectious diseases and contaminated drinking water.As surface water supply is often limited by low streamflow, unless it is augmented by in-channel or off-channel storages, climate change may increase risks of inadequate surface water supply in drought conditions. Projected increases in precipitation would increase recharge to shallow aquifers. This could result in higher water tables during springtime conditions, increasing basement flooding and necessitating more tile drainage in row crop areas. Conversely, more intense summer droughts could result in lower water tables during peak pumping conditions in the summer, potentially impacting the sustainability of the groundwater resource used in water supply.
* More from the Tribune…
Native prairie plants that can tolerate drought, including big bluestem, prairie milkweed, Illinois bundleflower and rough blazing star, will likely fare better than other species. Invasives may take the place of plants that wither under warming temperatures. The common, pesky weed Johnsongrass, which can grow to be 8 feet tall, may be one of the species that benefits from warming, going on to overrun grasslands further north. Warming may additionally offset the timing of blooms — a particular threat for butterflies that rely on nectar for food.
- Ok - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 10:52 am:
And yet, Springfield legislators xontinue to be at the beck and call of fossil fuel companies. How many gas bills sailed out of committees the past few weeks?
- don the legend - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:00 am:
No fear. Governor Bailey will make it all go away.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:11 am:
Johnsongrass. I swear that curse would survive a nuclear explosion.
- Give Us Barabbas - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:15 am:
I think you’ll also see the tornado corridor of Illinois shift North and East over time, getting closer to the Cook County/Chicago area, and getting more frequent and more violent.
- Cool Papa Bell - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:24 am:
A generation of farmers would quickly hop out of truck and dig up a large sprout of Johnson grass as they passed by.
The late planting concerns would largely go by the wayside if the Federal Crop Insurance Prevent Plant date was pushed further back into the summer. That was a big reason farmers elected not to plant in 2019 - there was a financial incentive to NOT plant with crop insurance.
- Nobody Sent - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:32 am:
OK said it - legislators, and regulators, continue business as usual with the fossil fuel industry - they like to talk about their concern for climate change but won’t tell the powerful fossil fuel industry “no”
- City Guy - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 11:40 am:
The other big concern is flooding due to increase rain with risks of major events like the Mississippi floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 12:03 pm:
The state needs to step in and address local codes and zoning for how people utilize their lawns so that people aren’t fined hundreds of dollars and then have their lawns mowed by the city when their grass is over 6 inches or 8 inches, or whatever other height is imposed and enforced by city governments. Aside from the enforcement being targeted at low income neighborhoods, and giving power to nosy neighbors.
As it stands now in most communities if a person undertook an effort to cultivate native grasses in their yard they would do so at their own peril for hefty fines and to have their municipal government destroy their progress.
Such a bill could also be utilized to encourage local governments to foster native drought tolerant species on public lands and to encourage planting trees on public property and right-a-ways. Publicly owned land shouldn’t be treated like a yard in a post-war suburb.
“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” Can sometimes be taken literally. I know that Illinois has historically chosen to kick our cans down the road, but we need to start doing something about this now.
If we don’t, try not to be surprised in a decade or two when the generation of up and coming leaders is disinterested in supporting our retirements as they struggle to address every other problem we’ve ignored.
- vole - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 12:19 pm:
Summers here now are well into sucking territory. A month of 95 degrees plus high humidity is well into the uninhabitable range. This sad, sacrificial state has had its best days. Nothing in the future for the young to look forward to.
- Arnold - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 2:05 pm:
I’m not sure some of these comments are correct. Specifically, which fossil bills passed this session?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 2:12 pm:
===Specifically, which fossil bills passed this session? ===
Some way far-out types are still upset that the House passed a bill to bring natural gas to Pembroke Township.
- Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 2:41 pm:
vole, if you think summers here are in the uninhabitable range, I strongly urge you to stay out of the deep South.
- going nuclear - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 3:41 pm:
Governor Pritzker signed an executive order January 23, 2019, committing Illinois to reducing carbon emissions consistent with the international Paris Climate Agreement.
While Pritzker’s pushing for clean energy legislation in the state legislature, his administration could be doing much more to help the state mitigate and adapt to the growing climate crisis. Pritzker could create a state office that would take the lead on climate policy development. He could bring stakeholder groups together to develop a statewide climate action plan, outlining detailed strategies for reducing carbon emissions not just from the power sector, but also transportation, buildings, agricultural and industrial sources. He could direct his environmental, public health and natural resource agencies to develop programs for assisting communities in assessing climate hazards, adapting to the changes already upon us, and planning for those to come.
For the last two years, Pritzker’s EPA has been sitting on $89 million from the Volkswagen Environmental Mitigation Trust Fund that could be used to speed up the state’s conversion to electric vehicles (EVs), including EV charging infrastructure, electric buses and trucks, EV purchase incentives and electrifying public vehicle fleets.
Other states like Michigan, Washington, California, Oregon, New York, Nevada and Colorado have adopted plans and are reorganizing their agencies to address the climate crisis in a comprehensive manner.
Let’s go Governor! Time to get in the game in a big way.
- Nobody Sent - Wednesday, Apr 21, 21 @ 5:22 pm:
Rich - the Pembroke legislation is not limited to Pembroke - and check out the ICC’s order allowing DAPL to double when the IL AG argued in federal court to shut it down.