* This has been a trend for many decades, so it’s not unexpected…
Coulda been worse. Gloom and doomers were projecting a two-seat loss.
…Adding… Sun-Times…
Illinois will lose one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Census Bureau said Monday in its announcement of the redistribution of the 435 congressional seats based on population shifts in the 2020 Census.
For the past 50 years, Illinois, reflecting the results of each new census, has been allocated fewer members in Congress, as other states increased in population but Illinois either held steady or declined.
Illinois at present sends 18 members to Congress; under the new reapportionment, the delegation will drop to 17 members. Of Illinois’ current House members, 13 are Democrats and five are Republicans.
Reapportionment is the step that takes place before a remap — that is, drawing new congressional district lines based on the latest census data. Each state gets at least one seat; after that the remaining 385 seats are distributed according to population, with the aim to have about the same number of people in each district. This system has been in place since the first census in 1790.
…Adding… A commenter rightly notes that Pennsylvania has now surpassed Illinois’ population. Click here for the list.
…Adding… Gov. Pritzker’s office…
Under the leadership of Governor Pritzker, the Census Office coordinated a robust, statewide effort to reach millions of Illinois residents, particularly those in hard-to-count communities. This effort included a network of 400 organizations, coordinated by 31 Regional Intermediaries that received grants directly from the state. These boots on the ground conducted direct census outreach and education through an array of channels and in multiple languages. Through canvassing, community events, press and social media events, food and masks distribution, and phone calls the state was able to conduct one of the most significant census efforts in the nation and achieved the top self-response rate of the 10 most populous states.”
Leader McConchie…
“The 2020 Census numbers show that Americans continue to vote with their feet,” said Illinois Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods). “People are leaving states where they can’t find economic opportunity and heading to states where they can. If we want to keep our talent and our tax base, our top priority should be passing pro-growth policies that will make Illinois more attractive to students, employers and families.”
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:23 pm:
Now just to wait for our fair maps which will very conveniently send Davis packing.
- Ok - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:23 pm:
Wooohoooo
- tdavs1 - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:24 pm:
=Now just to wait for our fair maps which will very conveniently send Davis packing.=
Davis will probably be running for governor and would be a formidable opponent for Pritzker given he won 5 times in a swing district.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:29 pm:
Thanks, JB. The Gov and his team prioritized census response from the get-go. It led to us doing better than many other states and got us off the two seat bubble.
- Norseman - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:30 pm:
Kinzinger is the only G, I wouldn’t mind sparing. That’s because he’s trying to combat the Q. The rest of the delegation are firmly GQP and need to be tossed.
- Lurker - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:34 pm:
I did expect Illinois (and California) to lose two, and I was not expecting Pennsylvania to lose one. I do wonder with so much movement during covid, if this census would be vastly different as early as 2023.
- Ok - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:34 pm:
The rust belt is becoming “friable.”
(Friable, or crumbling, rust means that the rust has penetrated beyond the surface, and the structure has been compromised.)
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:36 pm:
Meh. One seat. Coulda been a lot worse.
===Now just to wait for our fair maps which will very conveniently send Davis packing.===
(Sigh)
The goal of the next exercise is to draw out, as best they ALL can, Mary Miller.
See, that’s why so many folks let Mary Miller run for that seat, and faced very… well… limited opposition.
Miller has the least seniority, in a region with population loss, can be sacrificed so 4 other GOP seats remain safe-er… and the 13 Dems have a chance to be in 13 safe-er Dem seats.
If you think this is about Davis or Kinzinger, you’re not looking at history or Mary Miller correctly.
Now, Miller is free to run anywhere, for any seat, challenge any… but the 17 can make it really difficult for her in both the primary and the general (depending how far in left field even Mary Miller rolls) and it would behoove the 17 to stick with that redrawing plan others feared when Shimkus left… and many passed.
- Swampy Corn - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:39 pm:
I have a feeling COVID actually saved us, as people were home at the start of the process. Now I don’t know if it would.
I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population. The only answer I ever hear from the left is the weather, whilethe right answers democrats. Neither answer is helpful, especially when Montana is adding a seat and our neighbors held steady.
- Person 8 - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:47 pm:
When is there going to be a serious discussion about expanding the number of representatives? We are at 1 rep per about 800k. When the original law was passed it was 1 rep per 2200k. At some point, they are no longer “local” if they are representing million(s) of constituents.
- Person 8 - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:48 pm:
Typo 220k not 2200k
- don the legend - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:49 pm:
== (depending how far in left field even Mary Miller rolls)==
OW, maybe “right field” is more applicable in your example.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:57 pm:
===I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population===
I mean, where do you want to start? California had 11 seats in 1910 and Illinois had 27. California was up to 23 in 1940, while Illinois dropped to 26. All downhill for Illinois from there.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:58 pm:
=== our neighbors held steady.===
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania lost seats.
Some might say they are neighbors
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 2:59 pm:
===I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population===
Illinois is 5th/6th most populous state, with Pennsylvania, who may be 6th/5th and also, you guessed it, lost a seat too.
So… there’s that.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:02 pm:
Pennsylvania officially surpassed us, so we’re 6th.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf
They’re just over 13.0M and we’re 12.8M.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:02 pm:
–Now just to wait for our fair maps which will very conveniently send Davis packing.–
As Willy notes, not the worst of the bunch, not by a longshot.
–Davis will probably be running for governor and would be a formidable opponent for Pritzker given he won 5 times in a swing district.–
Sure. If anyone north of I-80 knew who he was and he had $100 million lying around.
- Perplexed - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:02 pm:
Person 8 raises a good point: What will we do about this? Illinois had 27 House seats during WWII and now will have 17.
The fact that losing another seat was expected is more damning than if it had come as a surprise. We should be screaming at our politicians about tax and spending policies that contribute to this persistent decline, not accepting it as an inexorable fate we can’t reverse.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:02 pm:
===I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population.===
Lots of obvious reasons, starting with families having fewer children and limits on immigration. Before advances in modern farming, for example, farm families used to be big so that there were enough hands to do the labor needed to operate a farm. Now much of that is mechanized or automated.
Don’t dismiss the weather, either. 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every year and no one is moving here to spend their golden years. And since the invention of air conditioning and cheap subsidized electricity in the south and southwest, you can now live in the desert in ways people 80 years ago could only dream about.
Demography is destiny.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:03 pm:
===maybe “right field” is more applicable in your example===
Truth to that, either way, Mary Miller is more likely to quote the leader of National Socialists, again, than temper her own words.
You’d think the 17 others would like to make her staying in congress untenable… and the other 4 “GOPers” would be saved too.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:03 pm:
I will say compared to the gloom and doom projections that you typically see, especially in the Tribune, the official loss was held to… 18,124 people total.
Good? No. Something to brag about? Nope. But it’s more of a stagnation than people fleeing, if the last decade is anything to consider.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:06 pm:
- Nick -
… and yet Pennsylvania lost a seat too.
===We should be screaming at our politicians about tax and spending policies that contribute to this persistent decline, not accepting it as an inexorable fate we can’t reverse.===
When was the last time Illinois ADDED a seat?
My in-law uncle married to my favorite aunt said it didn’t matter and started to eat most of the guacamole dip in before times…
- 47th Ward - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:06 pm:
Correction: 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every day.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:06 pm:
Did I say they didn’t also lose a seat?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:07 pm:
=== Did I say they didn’t also lose a seat?===
Who is 7th?
Did they gain a seat?
- ZC - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:07 pm:
> I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population.
Can’t begin to do that until we get much more granular data, -where- we are losing population (at least relatively).
I think Downstate’s been losing population because we are struggling to provide opportunities, and Trump probably cut into our ability to attract Latino / Hispanic immigration, which is huge, and then some amount of African Americans are continuing to leave the Chicagoland region for Georgia and elsewhere.
But, again, until we see much more detailed numbers, it’s really all speculation for now.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:10 pm:
The 2200 apportionment has some interesting results:
rep per thousand:
Deleware 1/990,000
IL 1/754,278
Montana 1/542,703
- twowaystreet - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:12 pm:
Kelly already made it pretty clear they want Miller out and want to keep Kinzinger comfortable.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2021/4/16/22388284/adam-kinzinger-illinois-democrats-carve-up-district-remap-may-run-for-senate-or-governor
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:13 pm:
=== Who is 7th?
Did they gain a seat?===
Here, I’ll help… it was Ohio… yet, they lost a seat
Georgia, next… did NOT gain a seat…
North Carolina, they gained a seat… still 2.2 million behind Illinois… and Michigan, rounding out that “top ten”, you guessed it, lost a seat.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:15 pm:
===Kelly already made it pretty clear they ===
Kelly doesn’t draw the map.
- SAP - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:15 pm:
I’m not nearly as worried about losing a seat as I am curious about whether any of the changes in swing states will tip them one way or the other in 2024.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:18 pm:
=== Kelly doesn’t draw the map.===
Kelly can’t even fundraise or be officially named party chairman.
What they all want, and what also makes the most sense to the 16 others (and Kelly) is still predicated on someone else drawing their map.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:21 pm:
“that will make Illinois more attractive to students, employers and families.”
I’m curious to see how this oft-used talking point stands up compared to the Chicagoland population numbers, which shows more young professionals moving in and a competitive real estate market…compared with downstate that has been losing population consistently for decades.
- Ares - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:23 pm:
Focus on the people remaining in Illinois, and on their quality of life.
- Cool Papa Bell - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:28 pm:
A good demographic dive into the exit would always be appreciated. But quickly - weather, weather, weather, taxes and families having fewer kids. I’d also say years of devaluing the higher education system in Illinois and some decent places to live right across the boarder.
A point was made about downstate - a trend I have been seeing is that better off folks are moving out of smaller downstate communities to other states. That’s a real drag on the economic life of small downstate towns.
- low level - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:30 pm:
But McConchie is still here. Things are that bad I guess.
- Perplexed - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:32 pm:
To the questions raised:
– When did Illinois last add a House seat?
Illinois had 25 seats from 1903 to 1913, then added two seats for a total of 27 from 1913 to 1943.
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Illinois#:~:text=U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives,-Current%20members&text=The%20delegation%20has%20a%20total,13%20Democrats%20and%205%20Republicans.
– What state ranks seventh in population and will it now gain a seat?
Ohio (11.8M, up 2.3%) ranks seventh and lost one seat.
Georgia (10.7M, up 10.6%) comes next and held steady.
North Carolina (10.4M, up 9.5%) ranks ninth and gained a seat.
Here’s the state-by-state count released this afternoon, with decennial comparisons back to 1910: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf
- Anyone Remember - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:33 pm:
Bye bye Rodney …
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:37 pm:
- Perplexed -
So… 1913
Florida, Texas, North Carolina, all top ten only gained seats.
So what exactly is this dorm room discussion looking like when California, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan still in the top ten and losing seats?
Nothing really to be perplexed about when deciding to see a bigger picture.
- Snarkie From Schaumburg - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:38 pm:
It’s the weather, S*%#$D. The spelling is my homage to civility.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:39 pm:
=== Bye bye Rodney …===
The drawers of the map wanna save Mary Miller?
If that was the case… that primary field in 2020 woulda been jam-packed.
If Miller can beat Davis… that’s up to some clever map making. Heck, Miller might decide to go after Bost…
- Arsenal - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:45 pm:
==We should be screaming at our politicians about tax and spending policies that contribute to this persistent decline, not accepting it as an inexorable fate we can’t reverse. ==
We’ve had a dozen different “tax and spending policies” since WWII, yet the declines kept coming.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:48 pm:
=== Here’s the state-by-state count released this afternoon, with decennial comparisons back to 1910===
In 1903… the Wright Brothers flew the first airplane.
In 2021… NASA is flying the first helicopter… on Mars.
You think air travel is the only thing different from 1910 to 2020?
- Perplexed - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:49 pm:
Last decade, 47 states gained population.
Mississippi, West Virginia and one other lost.
So okay, everything’s going well here.
- Simple Simon - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:49 pm:
Illinois will be at a competitive disadvantage for 25 years as we pay off the pension debt. Best hopes for us are climate migrants coming where there is fresh water and no hurricanes or fires. Winter isn’t really that bad anymore. We also need to work to reverse federal policies that send our tax dollars to southern states.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:52 pm:
- Perplexed -
I thought we were talking about seats…
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:53 pm:
Hope this means I no longer live in a GOP vote sink next year.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:55 pm:
=== Here, I’ll help… it was Ohio… yet, they lost a seat
Georgia, next… did NOT gain a seat…
North Carolina, they gained a seat… still 2.2 million behind Illinois… and Michigan, rounding out that “top ten”, you guessed it, lost a seat. ===
Okay?
I was just literally pointing out that we’re now 6th, not 5th, which was the question. So I’m not sure who this exercise is for.
- Blake - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:56 pm:
I would say natural amenities which includes the weather as well as some non-weather non-political things drawing people to the interior west.
I think natural amenities puts Illinois in an underdog position like a 1A school if IHSA basketball were still single class.
I don’t think natural amenities alone can explain why Illinois’ population came out down 0.3%, IN up 4.4%, IA up 4.5%, KY up 3.6%, MO up 2.5%, & WI up 3.5%.
- Arsenal - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:57 pm:
==Illinois will be at a competitive disadvantage for 25 years as we pay off the pension debt.==
No one considers public sector pension debt when choosing where to live, lol.
- Thomas Paine - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 3:59 pm:
You cannot have an honest discussion about population changes without talking about the decline in undocumented immigrant populations.
In a trend that goes back to 2006, major metro areas in the US saw big declines in the number of undocumented immigrants, in LA, NYC, and CHI. According to Pew, Illinois had 140,000 fewer undocumented immigrants in 2016 compared to 2006.
The recession in 08 had a lot to do with it, but we’re still trying to understand the shifting international migration patterns.
Still, it’s interesting to hear Senator McConchie lament the loss of 140,000 undocumented immigrants.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-06-24/us-cities-see-a-decrease-in-illegal-immigration%3fcontext=amp
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:01 pm:
=== IN… IA … KY… MO… WI… ===
All those states… have at *least* 5 million less of Illinois’ population.
They aren’t even in the same category of “state”
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:04 pm:
=== === IN… IA … KY… MO… WI… ===
All those states… have at *least* 5 million less of Illinois’ population.
They aren’t even in the same category of “state”===
You’d need to add, say, “South Carolina” type populations to those states to be Illinois-like.
Like… all of South Carolina.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:05 pm:
“I wish there would be an honest discussion about why we keep losing population”
Capt Fax tells the history over the last century. Some loss due to border state recruiting for colleges. Once a student leaves they are unlikely to return. Movers will talk about geting closer to grandkids. GOPies want you to believe it is all about property taxes which are controlled locally. Someone hand them a mirror.
- Simple Simon - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:05 pm:
Arsenal…true that, but the extra billions put into the pension debt could greatly lower college tuition or reduce property taxes if the state would increase school aid. But I agree that people move where they can get a job, rather than think about tax policy. Keeping Chicago vibrant is a main goal of keeping our economy booming.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:09 pm:
What I’ll say on Davis vs Miller is it’s less of a question of which politician is protected and more so what space they occupy.
Miller is definitely *not* safe, in that her district is going to be carved up to pad other Republican vote sinks.
But unfortunately for Davis he occupies basically the only strip of the state left that you could easily add another Dem district in; take out Metro East from the 12th and make some other changes, and boom.
So sure in whatever new district that both him and Miller are stuck in, he probably wins? Or he runs for Governor, who knows. I’m not sure if the GA is really concerned about his future plans, versus transforming his old seat into something BDL would have won twice in a row.
- Blake - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:10 pm:
Arsenal, debt forces a state to tax dollars that don’t go right back into the economy. It’s different than tax dollars being spent right back into the economy. The foreseeable expenses reduce the level of confidence as the state & local governments pursue investment in our local economies. Hence why it would be helpful to make bigger debt payments now, reducing future debt payments & promoting investment confidence.
- natty lite - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:16 pm:
If Dems can draw the map they want, they should give Mary Miller the safest rock-solid district possible. Best thing for Dems in Illinois is to have her entrenched, emboldened and really speaking her mind while the other “lean GOP” districts become more Democratic with each passing campaign.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:18 pm:
Ironically I don’t think our growth was especially bad pre-2010 all told? Yes we were losing districts, but so was almost every other Northern Industrial or Midwestern state. We’re not single handily going to be able to resist the national pattern of higher growth in the West and South, nor maintain what we had in the early 1900s when we had like 5-6 percent of the entire national population.
It’s really just this last decade where our growth clearly lagged.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:22 pm:
=== If Dems can draw the map they want, they should give Mary Miller the safest rock-solid district possible. Best thing for Dems in Illinois is to have her…===
So… you’re advocating that a map “save” a person who quotes the leader of National Socialists… and let her vile, disgusting rhetoric be “fine” and be something representative of Illinois?
That’s some really warped and nauseating politics you got going there…
That type of logic, every state should have a National Socialist quoting member to “really show people”
Of course that means 50 or so National Socialist quoting members would be in our Congress at any given time, but…
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:25 pm:
Every time Illinois has to eliminate a congressional seat it should also have to eliminate 100 units of local elected governmental bodies and consolidate 50 school districts. This should apply retroactively
- Lori's Census Cowboy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:29 pm:
Illinois lost another seat, as expected. But, the real story is can stay out of the elite group of losing population? If not, bigger problems will emerge.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:35 pm:
So I opened the list and am seeing that we had a .1% population loss? Am I missing something besides the fact that we didn’t keep up with general population growth that has boosted the national totals (immigration/births/other migration)? Because .1% doesn’t seem like a massive “vote with your feet” exodus?
- Nick - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:43 pm:
===So I opened the list and am seeing that we had a .1% population loss? Am I missing something besides the fact that we didn’t keep up with general population growth that has boosted the national totals (immigration/births/other migration)? Because .1% doesn’t seem like a massive “vote with your feet” exodus?===
It’s a good example of how some estimates can be off.
The 2019 ACS had Illinois with 12,671,821 people whereas now the actual census has us at 12,812,508. A full 140K more.
- Telly - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:50 pm:
== …save Mary Miller? ==
I certainly would if I were a Dem map-maker. I’d want to make her the face of the Illinois GOP.
- MyTwoCents - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 4:57 pm:
The crazy thing with the Census numbers is New York losing a congressional seat by 89 people. It just goes to show you how critical the door to door counting and local efforts can be.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/texas-gains-house-seats-while-new-york-loses-in-census-count
- Census Worker - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 5:04 pm:
Head scratcher: why did all the state surrounding Illinois gain population? Illinois sure is a special place.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 5:10 pm:
=== why did all the state surrounding Illinois…===
If you add the population of the state of South Carolina to those states, they still don’t match Illinois
Regional states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio… all lost congressional seats too.
So, are we talking “like states” that mirror Illinois in top ten populations in the Midwest or are we comparing states that lack millions of people and don’t mirror Illinois all that much and didn’t add seats?
It’s like when folks want to be like Alabama, but then realize what it means to live in Alabama…
- CEA - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 5:19 pm:
Maybe it’s Republicans “self-deporting.”
- ZC - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 5:50 pm:
Everything’s relative…
Down in Texas, some are asking, “Only two? What went wrong?” And Arizona feels like something went wrong, because it didn’t gain any.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/26/census-house-apportionment-for-next-decade-484653
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 6:14 pm:
=== I certainly would if I were a Dem map-maker. I’d want to make her the face of the Illinois GOP.===
It’s cool her offending people and her vile thinking in Congress as a … political tool…
What, you can’t win seats *without* Miller in a safe seat?
That’s an odd take, alienate so many because you can’t win on the merits of what Miller stands for without her being seated?
We should try to seat 50-75 Qanan and National Socialist sympathizers to make a point?
Winners. Make. Policy.
Having Mary Miller in Congress isn’t winning anything.
- History - Monday, Apr 26, 21 @ 8:33 pm:
Illinois has gained population in every census since we became a state in 1818 except 1: the 2020 census. And that loss was going from 12,830,000 in 2010 to 12,812,500 ish in 2020.
- 17% Solution - Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 8:18 am:
==Head scratcher: why did all the state surrounding Illinois gain population? Illinois sure is a special place. ==
Illinois lost 1.4% of its population. Illinois is special in that it had more people to lose.