Remap roundup
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
New state legislative boundaries proposed by Democrats would further cement the party’s dominance in Springfield by using a declining downstate population to pit House Republicans against each other in several areas.
“Make no mistake, these maps were drawn solely for the Democrats to maintain their political power in the state of Illinois,” House Republican leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs said during a news conference Monday in which he ripped the Democratic map proposal.
Democrats already hold a 73-45 advantage over Republicans in the 118-member Illinois House. Under details emerging from a proposed legislative map unveiled by Democrats on Friday evening, the new boundaries would pit Republican incumbents against each other in eight House districts. In east-central and southern Illinois, the homes of four House Republicans are packed into a single district. […]
“What we’ve seen here today is the lowest of lows for the House Democrats, which quite frankly, I did not think was possible after Mike Madigan disappeared. But as Speaker (Emanuel “Chris”) Welch said in January, it is a new day, and that new day is worse than what we witnessed under Madigan,” Durkin said.
I think this map may mess with individual Republicans more than any map I’ve seen since the Republicans won the right to draw the new map in 1991.
Back in 1990, Speaker Madigan won a veto-proof majority in the House. The backlash within the House Republican Caucus against Minority Leader Lee Daniels was fierce and a group of a little more than a dozen launched a subsequent coup attempt. The uprising was tamped down by former House Speaker and newly elected Secretary of State George Ryan and the Illinois State Medical Society. Daniels prevailed.
And then Gov. Jim Edgar vetoed the Democratic remap and the Democrats couldn’t muster enough votes in both chambers to override him and it was sent to the bipartisan commission, which, of course, deadlocked. The Republicans won the drawing for the right to create the new map and several House Republican members who had only recently fought Lee Daniels tooth and nail were suddenly at his mercy and Daniels wasn’t exactly known for being overly merciful.
As a result of the new map, most of the HGOP coup-plotters had to leave, either for the Senate or for other elected offices. One of those who stayed, Rep. Jack Kubik, had to move to a new house.
* Capitol News Illinois…
In a separate news conference Monday, Republicans blasted the proposed maps as a blatant attempt to ensure Democrats retain their supermajorities while undercounting minority populations.
“This is Gerrymandering 101,” said House Republican Leader Jim Durkin, of Western Springs. “And it’s impossible to determine whether or not minority interest will be protected.
“But we do know that when you use ACS data, we know for a fact that minorities will be underrepresented using that information.”
Frankly, I think it’s more like a 400-level course than an intro class. It’s really quite something, particularly considering that both chamber leaders are newbies.
Also, if the Republicans know for a fact that minorities are underrepresented, it would be nice if they used some of their prodigious state budget allocation to prove it.
* WGLT…
Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield, said the ACS data was inadequate to draw new maps.
“We need the decennial census data that won’t be out until August to be able to draw these maps,” said Butler. The process will go to a bipartisan commission if it continues beyond June 30.
Not mentioned in the story is what happens if that bipartisan commission fails to come to consensus.
* Daily Herald…
Suburban House Republicans could see some losses in the next election based on the proposed Illinois legislative map, which would pit some incumbent lawmakers against one another.
Six Republicans live in three of the proposed districts, potentially whittling down GOP representation and expanding Democrats’ control of the General Assembly. Another suburban Republican would be drawn into the same district as an incumbent Democrat.
“Every one of these districts is unfair,” House Minority Leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs said Monday.
A Democrat snarked last night that truly fair maps don’t take into account legislators’ residences.
But, yeah, this map is definitely in partisan overdrive when it comes to clustering Republicans. Whew. I would not want to be one of them.
* SJ-R…
“We are focusing on and looking forward to good-faith discussions in our bipartisan redistricting committees this week,” [Jaclyn Driscoll, spokesperson for House Speaker Chris Welch] said.
Right. Yeah. For sure.
* Related…
* Doris Turner’s district realigned in redrawn maps; Murphy, Bourne in same House district
* Redistricting proposal would change face of region, splitting Morgan representation
- Norseman - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:11 am:
=== … if the Republicans know for a fact that minorities are underrepresented, it would be nice if they used some of their prodigious state budget allocation to prove it. ===
My money is on the proposition that the only minority shorted by the Dems is the GQP. And yes, despite the empty office stunt, the GQP knows how these maps play out.
- Blue Dog - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:15 am:
The remapping process. The absolute disgrace compliments of our two party system. I am proud to be an independent and continue to look forward to the day when we have viable third party candidates.
- Nelson Mandela Muntz - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:16 am:
“Every one of these districts is unfair,” House Minority Leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs said Monday.
Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t McCombie and a few of the Eastern Bloc tried a coup on Durkin not to long ago. Now these insurgents are all getting thunderdomed.
- 1st Ward - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:20 am:
“continue to look forward to the day when we have viable third party candidates”
There’s 3 or 4 viable parties already the party of Trump, minority of non-trump republicans, progressives/DSA, and corporate/moderate dems. the corporate/moderate dems are similar in a lot of ways to non-trump republicans. If that doesn’t work then support rank-choice voting.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:23 am:
There’s so much… so, so much, to love about this post, Rich, just standing alone. Wow. This is great stuff, much needed context, and frankly the need for a real examination of institutional knowledge to past maps… legislatively, politically (inter AND intra party), and how it all led… and it has led… to Illinois’ own wrestling with a map, uniquely.
The failed coup of Daniels *alone*…. Edgar, GHR, (and how Pate fits in is even a story). Can’t LOVE this post enough
Was talking with someone who is much smarter and wiser than me (which means just about anyone who has a pulse and can communicate) and the “3 new leaders” aspect of this process was very much on their mind… but with context to… 1990, 2000 thinking too.
There’s so many interesting subplots going on, including the Eastern Bloc Corral… that’s just one…
Voters may not do nuance, but as this post reminded me… it’s nuance, institutional knowledge, personalities, politics… and not Gerrymandering 101, 102… this ain’t the college dorm either…
Great stuff
- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:24 am:
1) the question is whether Dems used incumbent addresses for the GOP or not. Notice that the GOP are mostly nice looking boxes, which is the express wish of the GOP. Considering how many incumbents on both sides live relatively close to each other, it’s totally possible Dems just ignored the GOP addresses.
2) there’s plenty of nuanced research out there on the ACS versus the Census, including meta-analysis that says the ACS doesn’t undercount minority communities any more than the census itself does. Just take a look at the state total pop numbers and how much worse apportionment went for Arizona, Texas, etc. likely because The Party of Trump scared people from census participation.
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:24 am:
If the GOP wants more representation at the state level they should try representing the interests of the people.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:25 am:
===it’s totally possible Dems just ignored the GOP addresses.===
Sure, Jan.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:27 am:
It seems obvious that if TantrumTim wanted to use the decennial census# he should have Trump, Wilbur Ross and the other magooes at the Commerce Dept. to speed up the count. It is all on the GOPies head this time.
- Tommydanger - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:35 am:
I used to fantasize about districts drawn as close to 50/50 D/R as possible to reflect that most of us live in the middle or relatively close to one side or the other of the middle. But then I woke up to find the Dems had migrated to the left of Topeka and the Repubs had migrated to off the coast of South Carolina.
- Wally - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:46 am:
When the state income tax was raised from 3% to 5%, wasn’t Welch the guy who argued it was only a 2% increase? Since it was a 67% increase, apparently math and maps are hard for the leader.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:50 am:
===drawn as close to 50/50 D/R as possible to reflect that most of us live in the middle or relatively close to one side or the other of the middle===
How are you gonna do that in Chicago or Effingham?
- Annonin' - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:52 am:
Hey anyone found the GOPies $500K is missing remap cash?
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:54 am:
“How are you gonna do that in Chicago or Effingham?”
Every district is going to look like a gummy worm?
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:55 am:
As I suggested yesterday, the GOP would make a much better case if they would share their map so we could all see how much fairer the representation would be…the amazing increase of minority representation, the beautifully compact districts, the lines that follow existing borders, etc. A picture is worth a thousand words and so is a map. Show us what fair looks like; expose the Dems unfairness.
They certainly have a map by now. If they don’t, I have no doubt they could find a few non-partisan good gov folks to draft one.
The contrast would seal the case in their favor, right? Let’s see that map.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:04 pm:
=using a declining downstate population to pit House Republicans against each other in several areas.=
Geepers, you think maybe the declining population in the heart of GQP territory would have a little something to do with things?
And the democrats wanting to punish the eastern bloc nonsense they have had to put up with?
The GQP continues their victimhood versus taking a long look at themselves and the real reasons they continue to get trounced in Illinois. I mean it has only been 30 years since they have been truly relevant. Why change?
The truly cynical side of me thinks maybe they like the new maps as they continue to have safe, solid GQP districts and this is just more posturing. Probably not, but they continue to show no real inclination to gaining votes.
=“We need the decennial census data that won’t be out until August to be able to draw these maps,” =
Butler is at least equally disingenuous as the map drawers. He knows full well that the national GQP did everything it could to screw with the census and now we need to “wait” for that data so that the GQP in Illinois can have a shot a deciding something. Laughable.
= Welch the guy who argued it was only a 2% increase? Since it was a 67% increase, apparently math and maps are hard for the leader.=
Don’t be obtuse. It WAS 2 percentage points. Actually, it was 1.9 percentage points from 3% to 4.9%. I know using 67% (which is actually 66.6%) sounds like a huge increase and thus makes your caterwauling seem more justified.
But it isn’t.
- Benjamin - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:10 pm:
Regarding the Trib article that opens this post: if downstate has a declining population, wouldn’t it make sense that it loses political representation?
- H-W - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:10 pm:
I can only guess. But since Gerrymandering along political lines is technically legal (even if repugnant), then the Republicans cannot use the political argument effectively. Thus, claiming racial discrimination becomes the default “go-to” if they hope to challenge the new map.
Personally, I would prefer an bipartisan map, aligned with the aggregate voting patterns. But as “they” say, “it is what it is.”
- EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:12 pm:
Anyone know when we might see a draft of the proposed 17-district new congressional map?
- SN1848 - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 1:00 pm:
The remap is legitimate. It reflects the will of the party with the most votes. Going to multi-rep districts, and/or proportional representation voting with more viable parties. The districts are less of problem for democracy than the stranglehold of money and the two parties have on politics
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:27 pm:
Someone needs to find one of the original framers of the 1970 constitution and ask them why they felt the need to have a specific date - So many issues in this state could be resolved with time travel.
- anon2 - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:49 pm:
The majority did what majorities in both parties do when it comes to redistricting, namely help themselves and stick it to the minority. Which is exactly what GQP majorities are doing in more than 20 other states.
- JeffJackson - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:16 pm:
FYI - Some of us remember a Republican winning in an Illinois Remap fight in 1981. State Representative Judy Koehler(R-Henry, 89th) claimed that her remapped district lacked “compactness”. She eventually won her case in the Illinois Supreme Court.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:22 pm:
Does anyone actually think the likes of Bailey and Miller would show any restraint if they had control of the map?
Even Durkin for that matter. They would do the same of worse to the other party. Anyone who thinks otherwise is woefully unprepared to live.
- Abu Iskandr - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 8:39 pm:
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:27 pm:
Someone needs to find one of the original framers of the 1970 constitution and ask them why they felt the need to have a specific date - So many issues in this state could be resolved with time travel.
One of them just ended his membership in the Illinois House of Representatives a few months ago…