Question of the day
Friday, Jun 4, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune weekender…
Illinois Republicans may have been shut out on the key issues this spring, but they did find a unifying theme as the party tries to make its case against Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who’s up for reelection next year.
“How can we trust him?” asked Senate Republican leader Dan McConchie of Hawthorn Woods at one of the many news conferences the out-of-power GOP held to deliver a litany of grievances about Pritzker and Democratic lawmakers.
Republicans offered a pair of examples from the recently concluded session in support of that “trust” concept: Pritzker agreed to Republican-backed business tax changes two years ago, then unsuccessfully tried to take them away to balance his new budget. And candidate Pritzker vowed to veto a new map of legislative districts if both parties didn’t have input, but is now poised to sign Democrat-drawn boundaries into law.
GOP leaders also cited two of Pritzker’s biggest stumbles since becoming governor: 36 COVID-19 deaths at the LaSalle Veterans Home on his watch, which factors into the top issue of how the governor handled the pandemic, and the sound rejection by voters last November of his push for a graduated-rate income tax for the state.
Questioning the trustworthiness of a politician is a tried-and-true opposition tactic aimed at seizing upon the public’s cynical views of government and elected officials. Whether Illinois Republicans can capitalize on that message against Pritzker is a question of its own, however.
* The Question: Can the trust issue be effectively used against Pritzker? Make sure to explain your answer, please. Thanks.
- slow down - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 1:50 pm:
Saying he’s untrustworthy only works if you can give examples that resonate. Not sure that will work here.
Bigger issue is fielding a candidate that offers a reasonable alternative to the state’s electorate. Not sure they’re going to be able to do that either.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 1:51 pm:
Everybody tries the trust issue. But in this case, they have two process issues, a business tax-break and the remap.
Maybe I need to get out more, but I don’t hear a lot of people talking about the remap process and whether it was or wasn’t fair. The professional chattering classes might be getting the vapors about this, but Joe and Jane Illinois don’t even know who represents them now.
And businesses not getting a sweet tax break doesn’t feel like it moves the needle, especially with the stock market about 34,000.
What else do they have?
- phocion - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 1:55 pm:
No. Illinois voters long ago accepted that politicians lie.
- Dan Johnson - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 1:56 pm:
So agreeing to some (maybe not great policy, especially data centers which is ridiculous corporate welfare) tax breaks in the first year of his Administration meant that is a four year deal? I thought we did annual budgets around here.
The maps might be easier to sell since that was a legit change of policy.
But agreeing to a deal in year one — for year one — and then in year three recognizing that those tax policies aren’t a great use of scarce resources isn’t a change in policy.
- fs - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:00 pm:
Can it be used? Yes
Can it be used effectively? Depends on who is running, and who is running their campaign
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:04 pm:
Not really. Pritzker delivered on almost everything to the people who voted for him, or at least to a large segment of those people. The people who think Pritzker betrayed them are those who more or less would not vote for him.
- TheInvisibleMan - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:06 pm:
— Can the trust issue be effectively used against Pritzker? —
By any republican? Not a chance. Most republicans have spent the past 15 months demonstrating they will do whatever they want no matter what anyone says, or who else it might impact. That’s not someone I would ever listen to when it comes to them questioning my personal level of trust in anyone else.
Most on the republican side are going to have a hard time coming to terms with the bed they’ve made for themselves over the past year plus.
By a democratic candidate? Maybe, at best. But I don’t see why any of them would.
- Excitable Boy - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:07 pm:
In comparison to whom? Davis, Rabine, Bailey?
I don’t think most Illinoisans trusted Donald Trump, and those guys are in lockstep with him.
So no, not thinking this is a winner.
- Henry Francis - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:09 pm:
Lack of trust can be made an issue against JB if the ILGOP can provide an alternative. Kinda like the maps.
- Cheryl44 - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:13 pm:
Republicans should stay away from talking about who is trustworthy.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:16 pm:
Aren’t IL voters just a wee too cynical for a you can’t trust ‘em message to move votes?
If you are inclined in any way to vote Republican don’t you already assume politicians are untrustworthy?
And if you are a Dem partisan the only trustworthiness of concern is whether you can be trusted to deliver on the party agenda, right?
- Big Jer - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:16 pm:
I do not think Pritzker has a trust issue.
The only example the Republican’s have that has any legs is the LaSalle Veterans Home deaths. And I would add to that the incompetence/mismanagement of the state unemployment office during the pandemic. As commenter “slow down” mentions, I don’t think those issues will resonate with voters.
Pritzker was overconfident in the passage of the graduated tax amendment which may have resulted in his about face on the business tax changes.
Lastly Pritzker was governor during an almost two year long pandemic which would have caused most politicians to change gears, go back on promises etc.
I shudder to think what it would have been like with Rauner or Blago as governor during a pandemic.
- NIU Grad - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:17 pm:
Can it be used in a way that doesn’t sound like political insiders whining? I doubt it.
- Actual Red - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:21 pm:
I think other commenters are right that, due to the relative nationalization of state politics, they’ll have to account for Trump in any argument against Pritzker.
Anything could happen, but I think that in order for the R’s to win statewide in firmly Blue Illinois, they have to have either
a) a very unpopular incumbent and and at least a moderately strong candidate or
b) at least a somewhat of unpopular incumbent and a very strong candidate.
I think scenario a) occurred when Rauner won. Its plausible that Pritzker might end up being somewhat unpopular, but I don’t think this iteration of the Republican party is capable of nominating a very strong candidate in order to see scenario b) occur. I think Pritzker has not botched Covid enough to end up very unpopular, especially as numbers continue to fall and things open back up, so scenario a) is also unlikely.
- Anon1 - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:25 pm:
My vote is no for many of the same reasons already mentioned, which is namely that these flips have sizzle with insiders (like the people on this blog) but not with the average voter. They really don’t follow redistricting, corporate tax policy or understood the graduated income tax questions. They just bought into the “taxes=bad, politicians=untrustworthy” Also, whether you like him or not, he comes across as trustworthy. Unlike Rauner and Blago.
- Curious citizen - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:25 pm:
The only way the “trust” issue could be effective against Pritzker is if the ILGOP could find someone they could portray as honest, like Jim Edgar was portrayed. But they have nobody who’s clean enough.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:25 pm:
The trust issue could be used effectively by the right candidate. The problem for the GOP is… national. Trump demands attention. And really, who is more untrustworthy? The guy who tried to overthrow the government, or the guy that signed a partisan map?
- Lucky Pierre - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:26 pm:
As a candidate for Governor JB promised to not sign a map drawn by politicians because this is a position supported by bipartisan majorities of Illinois voters.
The fact he did not keep his promise proves he did not learn from the reason his fair tax was rejected soundly by the electorate- they don’t trust Springfield politicians to keep their promises.
JB has done nothing to change their minds.
- Tommydanger - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:32 pm:
People run/pledge to do/not do certain things and then do/don’t.
I will self limit myself to x terms and then violate the pledge and run again and win.
I will release my tax returns after the audit is complete and then refuse to do so and then lose(or is it win?)
The point is that promises made and promises broken happens all the time and the ‘trust issue’ is rarely what carries the day. Perhaps the last time was “read my lips, no new taxes” where someone perhaps was help accountable on a ‘trust issue.’
If its regarding an issue that is already central to that voter’s decision on which candidate to support, then maybe. If not, it only serves to reinforce a previously held negative opinion of the candidate or will be ignored by voter who already favors the candidate.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:40 pm:
Sure, trust can be an election issue. Especially if the candidate/campaign have no problem lying in order to make the issue take center stage.
I don’t think the GOP needs to worry about reality when it comes to their campaign messaging against Pritzker, and they weren’t ever planning on doing it anyway. I’d put even money on mailers being sent out with his name drafted between three sets of parenthesis.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:43 pm:
Pritzker promised a bunch of things when he ran. He delivered on most of them. And more than that - he was the face on the TV everyday during Covid telling them things were going to be ok. I once listened to an old seasoned political pro tell an audience that you should avoid attacking your opponent with charges the public won’t believe (true or not). I don’t believe the public thinks JB is a liar or untrustworthy. And I don’t think the GOP would make a good messenger on this topic either way.
- Dysfunction Junction - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:44 pm:
It seems to me that Trump supporters who believed all the COVID stuff was overblown would be hard pressed to claim Pritzker failed to successfully manage the crisis that their president said wasn’t happening. To do so would cause all kind of cognitive dissonance. Bailey was holding maskless gatherings, and I’m sure a lot of other GOP candidates expressed similar sentiments*. If COVID was no worse than the flu, and would simply vanish with the warm weather, then who could sincerely fault Pritzker for under-reacting to the COVID threat?
Oh wait, I forgot the /S.
*Kinzinger would be the exception, but I think he still claims he’s not running. And he wouldn’t make it out of the primary anyway.
- OneMan - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:46 pm:
Depends on how you define effective…
But yes it can be, I think the redistricting thing may end up being too much inside baseball.
The unemployment office is going to one effective way to do it IMHO, plenty of people had to deal with unemployment fraud during COVID and before it. I also think you would be hard-pressed to find a voter who doesn’t know someone who had to deal with it. The ‘why was it so hard to report fraud’ argument and the ‘I told you it was fraud, my employer told you it was fraud yet the guy got $300″ is an effective argument.
In the words of OW, Governors own, and he is going to have to own LaSalle, that is a trust issue.
- clec dcn - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:48 pm:
I just do not think so and simply because the GOP has nothing that can stack up to him and what he is doing. I don’t like all of his policies but no one on the GOP horizon seems be a person that can beat him in any way. He has the all cards and it seems pretty like like a Royal Flush.
- ChrisB - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:50 pm:
I mean, it indirectly worked against him on the Graduated Tax, so why not? Plus now there are concrete examples of Candidate Pritzker vs. Governor Pritzker. That’s the current talking point against LL, which seems to be working.
At the same time, it all depends on who his opponent is. None of the currently declared candidates will be able to make a dent with this attack.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:50 pm:
Difficult but not impossible - they have to make a nexus to taxes, which they -were- able to do with the progressive tax amendment. But the best example of his alleged untrustworthiness is fair maps — kinda wonky.
- Benjamin - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:51 pm:
Nah.
The only people who would get bent out of shape over the business taxes would be business owners who weren’t inclined to vote for Pritzker anyway. And that law was two years ago–lots can (and has) changed since then.
As for the new maps, the people who care about that are a mixture of, again, Republicans who weren;t going to vote for him anyway and a good-government Democrats who don’t have anywhere else to go.
If this is the best the ILGOP can come up with, they’re boned.
- The Old Man - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:51 pm:
Yes, it is and can be effective, remember the Blago ads against Judy Barr,,,What was she thinking?? Worked then and will again if the GOP keeps hammering home the message
- Huh? - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:56 pm:
It won’t matter if Pritzker’s republican’t opponent is the most honest person in the world. I wouldn’t vote for them because of the tainted political party to which they belong.
- Been There - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 2:57 pm:
=== which is namely that these flips have sizzle with insiders (like the people on this blog) but not with the average voter. ===
I also don’t think the redistricting is an issue that excites voters. And as Big Jer said with Pritzker not getting the Fair Tax he has room to justify.
But I disagree about LaSalle and unemployment. We all have it had elderly relatives and that one could be a deadly issue. And with the stories of people dealing with the unemployment office you will have people of all demographics who were laid off lining up to be in the commercials.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:00 pm:
Now the right wing has a new childish character, “Pinocchio Pritzker.” That is the bottom of the barrel in terms of serious campaign strategy, just as the toilet prop was. Pritzker wiped out Rauner while being attacked for the toilet scandal and Madigan. It’s just playing to the echo chamber, and also a way to not campaign on lousy and unpopular right wing policies.
- Chicagonk - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:08 pm:
I think it would be smart for Pritzker to veto the ethics bill and demand some more teeth. Republicans have already said it’s too weak, so it’s not like they could criticize Pritzker vetoing it. I know it wouldn’t win him friends in Springfield, but it would be smart for his election chances.
- Earnest - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:11 pm:
Yes, builds on the theme of “don’t trust Springfield with your money” from the successful defeat of the Fair Tax. Stick with what’s working.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:24 pm:
“Stick with what’s working.”
Yes, it worked in the fact they defeated Pritzker’s idea with nobody. They have to run an actual candidate to defeat him this time. That’s the problem.
- Pundent - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:36 pm:
Trust can always be effectively used against Pritzker or any other politician who violates a campaign promise or fails at the job.
The bigger question is whether Pritzker can be painted as untrustworthy to the extent that one of his opponents if more deserving of our trust. With the announced and presumed candidates that seems like a tall order.
- Annonin' - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 3:57 pm:
NO
Which Trump zealot will deliver the message?
Or do we leave it up to Convicted ExCongressman’s son?
- low level - Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 4:22 pm:
No. Absolutely no chance.
Faced with the chance to make nice with Republican legislators, Pritzker decided to govern like a Democrat. In a state like Illinois, that’s a good choice.