Question of the day
Tuesday, Jul 20, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This Illinois Opportunity Project piece reads like WIND Radio’s version of the pandemic. Unsurprising since it’s basically the same people…
But just like any other crisis, politicians like Gov. Pritzker got drunk with power. During this time of economic turmoil and uncertainty, Gov. Pritzker passed an unbalanced, record-spending budget. He continued to campaign and spent $56 million funding his Tax Hike Amendment that would’ve cost the typical family of four $3,500 and would’ve raised taxes on over 110,000 small businesses. This is all while 35% of Illinois small businesses had to permanently shut down. In addition to the threat of more tax hikes, the Chicago Tribune released an investigative report that found Chicago businesses suffered $165 million in damages after the looting and rioting that summer.
Some of the other egregious highlights and missteps throughout the year included the devastating deaths of 36 veterans at the state-run LaSalle Veterans’ Home. The veterans’ home workers were using faulty sanitizers and weren’t following proper health and safety protocols all while Pritzker’s political appointee who was in charge of keeping our veterans safe was missing in action.
Gov. Pritzker also spent millions in state money on faulty PPE and gave out much sought after business interruption grants to defunct businesses.
The Illinois Department of Employment Security has been an epic failure and left desperate Illinoisans on hold for hours, waiting for benefits for weeks, exposing their private information, and ranking worst in the nation for reporting unemployment fraud to the federal Department of Labor. The Department has also failed to reopen any of their offices to the public.
To add to the madness, while businesses were forced to shut down again and kids still weren’t back in the classroom in most areas, Gov. Pritzker was dancing in the streets celebrating Joe Biden’s victory. It was hypocritical and cruel.
Whew. Some of that is just nonsense, but there’s enough truth in there to dirty Pritzker up. Just keep that in mind as we go forward.
* The Question: In your opinion, what are Gov. Pritzker’s main reelection vulnerabilities? Make sure to explain.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:11 pm:
LaSalle Veterans’ Home, IDES, and the fact that so many gullible people believe the nonsense put forth by the Profts and WINDs and Illinois Opportunity Projects of the world.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:13 pm:
IDES, DCFS, and LaSalle all come to mind. But it’s hard to see how the IGOP turns social service agencies into their “strengths.”
It’s hard to see the criticism of his Covid handling being effective. Because the only conclusion we can draw from that is we should have let more people become sick and die. Which is far as I can tell is the Darren Bailey campaign in a nutshell.
- Justice Democrat - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:16 pm:
Many Illinois voters are truly worse off than 4 years ago. Not everyone has a remote work job.
- NotRich - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:18 pm:
IDES, and violence in Chicago..nobody will remember LaSalle in Nov of 2022..and, a bad midterm impression of the Dems in DC can hurt him.. I am not sure the Illinois Repub party can drive home any of these message with Trump still in the picture..bottom line, JB’s only vulnerability is if Ken G. gets a good candidate and pours in $200mil
- Commissar Gritty - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:18 pm:
Came here to chime in but it looks like all my points were hit by 47th Ward and Pundit.
I will actually contribute by asking, while I see IDES’s turmoil being a major campaign issue, how do Republicans message that? I know they’re not above hypocrisy when it comes to political messaging but “He wasn’t giving out welfare fast enough” seems to not be a winner for their base. That’s going to take some maneuvering.
- The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:20 pm:
The typical family of 4 paying $3500 more in taxes? That is a lie. A typical family of four isn’t making more than $250K a year.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:23 pm:
Last things first;
The idea that Covid is a negative… those opposed to the handling of covid by Pritzker were likely already not voting for Pritzker.
So much… so much of Pritzker’s negativity is a hardening of what folks had already felt about… justice reform, covid, taxes… they are not as much negatives, they are reinforcing the group think, the necessary group think, for a base to try to peel.
All that said?
IDES, Linda Chapa LaVia and LaSalle, and going with what was “promised” after the Fair Tax Flop, let alone… the Fair Tax Flop.
The She-Caw-Go regionalism and the racism it seems to encapsulate, those folks are already against Pritzker too, they even have signs… Pritzker %#*^+… yeah, those are “No” voters, “unredeemable” to come to Pritzker.
The “fiscal” (taxes, budget choices), IDES, Linda Chapa LaVia and LaSalle… maybe, if not framed so racially charged, crime and criminal justice reform deemed “bad”
If the negatives are also racially charged and “white victimhood” is the prism of the real negatives… all it does is harden more where the negatives are sealed.
- ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:24 pm:
LaSalle, especially after he hit Rauner repeatedly over the head with a similar issue.
The main issue in this election is that Pritzker’s predecessor was so egregiously bad that JB seems quietly competent, which I think will ultimately win him reelection. Similar to what’s happening on the national level, no matter what he does, at least he’s not the other guy.
- IlliniVoter - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:24 pm:
Taxes or anything that hits directly into voter’s pocketbook. That being said I I don’t see how a GOP gov will suddenly fix things that have been persistent for years. Rauner promised to “Shake Up Springfield” and voters overwhelmingly rejected that vision. By IL standards, Pritzker is good. Elsewhere mediocre
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:26 pm:
===That’s going to take some maneuvering. ===
Meh. Since when has that ever stopped anybody?
- Southern Skeptic - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:28 pm:
“The idea that Covid is a negative… those opposed to the handling of covid by Pritzker were likely already not voting for Pritzker.”
Please please please GOP, attack him on Covid. Talk all about how Trump got it right and JB got it wrong. Quote Alex Berenson, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and all those who are convincing folks on the right not to get vaccinated. Please make this the centerpiece of your campaign.
Thanks.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:34 pm:
Stick to the question, please.
- Commissar Gritty - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:34 pm:
@Rich
Sorry, I should have clarified. I meant effective maneuvering 😆
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:34 pm:
LaSalle Veterans’ Home is obviously a concern, it is going to come up a lot, and his words on Rauner are going to be used a lot. Part of it is hindsight, but not using the correct hand sanitizer is low-hanging fruit. Also people clamming up and lawyering up in the investigation isn’t going to help him. People are going to know who Linda Chapa-LaVia is before November of next year for sure.
IDES, in particular the fraud more than the inability to assist people who legitimately needed the money. Don’t get me wrong, both are going to be a problem for him. But I think the ‘My name was used in the fraud and I tried to do the right thing, my employer tried to do the right thing and the state didn’t seem to care that people were robbing the state’ is going to stick. Because I suspect everyone knows someone who was impacted by this. It’s going to be hard to nuance the ‘well yeah I know you and your employer informed (or tried to) us within 24 hours but we still sent the thief several hundred dollars and then sent you a letter asking for it back but don’t worry’ isn’t going to play well.
The Government is not careful with “your money” is a strong theme to run on.
Depending on how this summer and more importantly next summer play out on the perception of crime may be an issue. The crime bill is ripe for FUD, it’s going to be easy to pick things out of it and make them into scary soundbites. Voters don’t subtle and if you start trying to explain against a backdrop of a perception of a ‘Chicago out of control’, that’s a problem.
Don’t think any of the current candidates on the GOP side has the skills or the resources to make these arguments very successfully, but if I was working for the governor on re-election this is what I would be thinking about.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:35 pm:
COVID is full of both good and bad for JB. If the opposition carefully selects a few “bad” items for their messaging, it could hurt the gov, but they tend to throw everything all at once, putting “he did too much” next to “he didn’t do enough,” which dilutes the message. On top of that, the gov’s admin did a lot right, which means his campaign has a lot of positives to offset the missteps. What the gov needs to do is own his mistakes very publicly to diffuse their efficacy during the campaign season.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:36 pm:
I actually love this question of the day. Love it.
Looking at Pritzker’s negatives, and where a GOP Nominee can make hay to win… it’s this discussion that’s what good campaigns do to look at themselves, and try to make a case, especially as an incumbent in this discussion, that Illinois led by (in this case, Pritzker) the incumbent is the best choice.
Thing is, whomever the GOP nominates, negatives notwithstanding, they will need to look at defending *themselves* and framing these negatives, real negatives, what will it take to move the needle?
Will these negatives be enough to level the race, and be able to defend *themselves*, and what will all that cost? $150 mil? $200 mil?
I look at IDES, LaSalle, specifically Chapa LaVia, even going criminal justice reform, taxes, trying to go after covid, gin up the base… I see these negatives, the next step is how deep in the money pot of one like Griffin can one go AND not alienate Trump base voters by being more moderate and appealing to suburban voters?
Great question today
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:38 pm:
You would never know from all the victory laps but only 7 states have higher unemployment than Illinois.
Our neighboring states are doing much better creating an environment for job creation
IL 7.2
MI 5.0
KY 4.4
MO 4.3
IN 4.1
IA 4.0
MN 4.0
WI 3.9
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf
- Commissar Gritty - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:40 pm:
@OW
You’re right on this being an effective exercise. We always called it “Red team, Blue team” when I did it at the start of a campaign. Play devil’s advocate to your own platform, see where the vulnerabilities are and come of with effective rebuttles. An absolutely part of debate prep.
- Commissar Gritty - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:41 pm:
Come up with*
Absolutely essential part*
Going to use the remainder of my lunch to get some caffine
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:43 pm:
I think 47th and OW get it right. I would add that crime may be a vulnerability as well.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:47 pm:
IDES and LaSalle, though he can address both of those in plenty of time.
What’s more out of his control is the national environment. If there’s a significant turn against the Biden Administration, Democrats up and down the ballot will suffer. Though as we saw in ‘10, a Dem Governor in IL might still hang on by their fingernails.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:49 pm:
Agree with IDES and LaSalle. Those two involve many people, their money and loss of life. But much of the other stuff is the same thin right wing gruel. Republican candidates are going to run on what makes the party a super-minority? After all of Pritzker’s accomplishments that he could argue warrant a second term? Have fun.
- phocion - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:54 pm:
Main (potential) vulnerabilities:
- lives in a bubble
- sharp left turn might not have the appeal he thinks
- crime rates up
- seldom/never takes responsibility for problems
- tepid support
- national party could fall off the cliff
- palpable disdain for blue collar and rural
- party infighting
- unable to shed troublesome staff
- few ribbon cuttings (how’s that I-80 bridge coming along?)
- Voting2022 - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:57 pm:
JB does have vulnerabilities. Question would be if they would make him lose like Pat Quinn. Voters need alternative vision too. What GOP candidate offers it? Schimpf, Rabine, or Bailey? Absolutely Not. The moderate candidate Rodney Davis? He’s more right wing than Rauner.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 12:59 pm:
==The typical family of 4 paying $3500 more in taxes? That is a lie.==
That number was apparently based on JB’s proposed spending plan and/or campaign promises.
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/pritzker-fair-tax-would-cost-typical-illinois-family-3500-cost-state-economy-286000-jobs/
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:00 pm:
===- sharp left turn might not have the appeal he thinks===
Polling says otherwise.
===- palpable disdain for blue collar===
Organized Labor? Even after Rauner?
I’d throw in “High School Athletes, and their parents” at that rate?
- IlliniVoter - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:05 pm:
=== seldom/never takes responsibility for problems===
When has Trump ever taken responsibility for anything? Yet, GOP still supports him.
=== tepid support===
Even more skeptical Dems I know have warmed up to him
=== crime rates up===
There was a pandemic before so take it with grain of salt. Unfair to unilaterally blame one person for rising crime.
- phocion - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:17 pm:
==Even after Rauner?==
==When has Trump ever taken responsibility==
You do know that Rauner and Trump were not re-elected, right?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:21 pm:
=== You do know that===
So you’re saying trade labor, organized labor is going to abandon Pritzker… like they did Rauner?
Huh.
- IlliniVoter - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:25 pm:
Duh. My point is all elected leaders have to take responsibility for the issues. Those saying Pritzker didn’t take responsibility for anything didn’t bat an eye when Trump didn’t do anything. Will the GOP opponent to Pritzker do it? That’s hard to see cuz they’ll be blaming Democrats and Madigan for all the issues. Even the so called moderate Rodney Davis never takes responsibility and always blames Pelosi or Democrats for everything.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:25 pm:
I will say this, during my travels around the state I see a lot more negative signage about JB than any other elected official, ever that I can recall.
There is a group of voters that really dislike the man, you can argue the reasons all you want, but regardless they really don’t like the guy.
Suffice to say whoever wins the nomination is going to be able to tap into that, what they can do with it is something else entirely.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:25 pm:
Rauner had 2 in 5 union households in 2014, then couldn’t even get 2 in 5 voters overall to vote Rauner.
If we’re talking negatives, to bring it back to the post… how is blue collar / organized labor turning on Pritzker?
If you mean old, angry, rural / blue collar, white voters… they might already be lost to Pritzker.
- phocion - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:30 pm:
==So you’re saying trade labor, organized labor is going to abandon Pritzker==
The private trades will abandon him in a heartbeat if the Republicans nominate a viable alternative. Those who live in the real world, and not behind a computer screen, have known that for a while.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:34 pm:
First, IDES. Second, the vehemence of the cognitive dissonance from the “Pro-Polio” crowd.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:39 pm:
Pretty sure the trailer tax hike is at the top of the list
- Back to the Future - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:43 pm:
One issue not often mentioned so far is Pritzker’s failure, like Trump, to disclose his complete tax filings. Complete disclosure would show all the loopholes or “tax avoidance”opportunities he uses to avoid paying, like Trump, what some would believe his “fair” share of taxes. I suspect Pritzker will continue to not fully disclose his tax returns and that will be an issue.
Another thing that may admittedly seem small to some, is the license program he signed into law which resulted in not one Black, Latino or a woman getting a state approved and state limited franchise. Like the State system that gave Pritzker a gambling franchise, our state history is often just the same old story of insiders getting to do state sanctioned business that 99% of Illinois voters are not privileged to get.
I suppose to sum up the issue, many voters will look at Pritzker and express their displeasure in voting for another insider Billionaire.
Frankly the Trump. Rainer and Pritzker types have not done a very good job or were straightforward in discussing problems in their administrations. For example, they as a group never take responsibility for mistakes. When someone mentions Rauner I think of Quincy along with his failure to do much or except responsibility . When someone mentions LaSalle I think of Pritzker and his response that stuff happens.
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 1:51 pm:
The right now problems are IDES and LaSalle.
Long term it’s how his office was unable to fix problems at IDES for months (or maybe ever) and the decision to keep La Via around for way to long.
Basically JB can’t just claim he took on a broken system or a sinking boat forever (IDES) and not show how his people were smart enough to fix it (they weren’t). The response to both problems should linger on him.
In 12 to 16 months -
Issues are going to be current state finances (still good?) and the over all economic picture (still murky?) If the state can play the balanced budget game for a few more years? Will people be back to work? What are the realities and can they over come the perception?
Another issue to deal with will be crime? Can murders and shootings be brought down in Chicago. Its’ going to have to be enough to again over come the perception of it. A summer of civil unrest would not be kind to Pritzker.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:00 pm:
===to disclose his complete tax filings.===
If 2013 and moving forward taught me… tax filings now as a gotcha is fool’s gold.
It’s like leaning into the property tax / toilets again. Probably keeping voters you already had.
Will it move the needle?
===Those who live in the real world, and not behind a computer screen, have known that for a while.===
LOL… “ok”…
Oh, and who exactly *is* this Republican that will be pro-labor AND get Griffin money while being pro-labor
See, this is why this is a great QOTD…
There are negatives… which this question wants us to flesh out… and negatives with “if”…
If the right candidate…
Ok… in your silly real world anecdotal mind… which Republican?
Or… is it just old, angry, white, rural / blue collar ?
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:05 pm:
IDES isn’t fixable in its present form, but blowing it up and starting over isn’t going to be popular.
- Mr. Hand - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:05 pm:
I agree with most of the issues that have been brought about.
As we are sitting about 16 months out, if a new variant or variants continue to emerge where further restrictions/mitigation to be put in place could close the gap, especially the closer we get to the election.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:07 pm:
===but blowing it up and starting over isn’t going to be popular. ===
It would also be stupid.
We had four years of blowing stuff up. It just doesn’t work in government.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:12 pm:
Veteran’s Home Covid
IDES Fraud
Chicago S/
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 2:56 pm:
I happened to be at an agriculture event today. Said something to some about the state fair and how I hope its a fairly decent crowd for JB and it doesn’t get nasty (most rural folks have been against COVID measures and JB).
Something very telling was said by the person I talked too - It’s just way past time to move on from that and everything that had to be done or was done. Never forget meeting people in real life is important.
- Soo.... - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 3:01 pm:
Soo.. JB’s weak spot are some of these hot takes from the last hour and a half having some sort of amnesia on the Rauner years. (snark)
Ya’ll think the current GOP is going to go back to some JBT, pre-Rauner/Trump time where you could run in a GOP primary as right of center/ social conservative/pro labor candidate and win.
There’s a reason a bunch of hard right candidates are running Gov while the supposed moderate is waiting to see what his map will look like.
This is a feature of the GQP, not a bug.
- Chicago Blue - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 5:05 pm:
That $3500 claim is really wild. It’s based off of an imaginary number that IPI pulled out of their you-know-whats to estimate the costs of Pritzker’s spending proposal. It’s not even connected to the Fair Tax rates at all.
“Please ignore the fact that the income tax rate for a an average family making $79,000 will go from 5 to 4.9% under Pritzker’s tax plan, but do know that based on our completely made up cost estimates of every Pritzker spending proposal that family will actually pay $3500 more when the evil Democrats inevitably raise taxes.”
In terms of weaknesses, most have already said them (LaSalle Veterans, IDES, general anti-presidential incumbent sentiment), but I’d also add that Pritzker’s team being too smart for their own good could hurt him. They royally botched the Fair Tax campaign, took little responsibility for it and blamed everyone but themselves. In a relatively blue state, Governor Pritzker is the favorite, but he’s not a shoo-in.
- Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 10:13 pm:
His tax increase proposal. Even though it is old news, some good ads can make people think it is his current proposal.
- Joe - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 10:29 pm:
IDES & LaSalle, as others say; but ‘dark horse’ maybe School Funding: failing to fully appropriate Evidence Based Funding & impact on Property Tax. R’s will also sum up all the new ‘little ‘ taxes like Lic Plates. Problem: can’t beat somebody with nobody!
- Rabid - Tuesday, Jul 20, 21 @ 11:33 pm:
It will be from within, like millionaire tax to graduated tax, think big to supersize me