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Pritzker filming TV ads in small-town Illinois

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rochelle News-Leader

Gov. JB Pritzker visited the ‘Hub City’ on Thursday afternoon.

Pritzker was in town visiting Kennay Farms Distilling with a film crew in tow. He recognized the distillery for its work early in the COVID-19 pandemic when it adapted to making hand sanitizer rather than spirits. A member of Pritzker’s video team reached out to Kennay Farms Owner Rick Kennay and asked in the days before to set up a tour and interview, Aubrey Quinn, in charge of marketing at the distillery, said.

“It was a pretty cool experience,” Quinn said. “We were pleased they picked us out. We felt pretty special. It was cool to meet them. They were shooting video for four hours. They wanted to see products bottled. We bottled a single barrel whiskey. They filmed shots around the tasting room and we walked across the street to eat lunch. It was casual. We talked about the transition that we made last year.”

Quinn said that when the Kennays made the choice to switch to hand sanitizer last year, they didn’t think they would still see the impact and recognition over a year later. The family enjoyed bringing in the people that did the work to be recognized on Thursday. […]

Rochelle Mayor John Bearrows spent about five hours with Pritzker during his visit. He was sworn to secrecy upon learning the Governor would be coming to town three days earlier. They ate lunch together at Acres Bistro.

* Coal Country Times

Governor J.B. Pritzker was in Staunton on Wednesday June 30, to shoot a commercial and talk to local business owners and residents. Pritzker and his crew shot the commercial at the Blackbird Bakery and Cafe, which is described as an ‘artisan cafe and bakery’ established by Harry and Emily Paul, and located on East Main Street.

Ashli Pernicka, who is currently both a baker and helping to run the front of house, answered some questions over her break regarding the Governors visit. When asked if the staff at Blackbird Bakery knew about the Governor’s visit beforehand she replied, “just a few days in advance we got some phone calls about it, asking if we were willing to have him come down and film a commercial here, about small businesses and his response to the pandemic, and just Emily and Harry’s story over the past year, so we did know about it.” Pernicka added, “we had some people we had told about it, close family and friends… but nobody really knew about it.”

Harry Paul, who co-owns the bakery with his wife, Emily and is a baker, took some time to answer questions about the visit as well. When asked how he felt the visit went, Paul replied, “it went well, it was fun, he was a nice guy and he was here for a couple hours.”

Gov. Pritzker sat down with the Paul’s to ask some questions about their life, family, and business. Paul says, “He just asked us about our business and how we did with the pandemic, and how we’re doing now. He was very complimentary and was looking around, checking out our place, and Staunton. I know he walked down the street a little bit too.”

…Adding… Hilarious…


  14 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm…


* The details are interesting

Connecticut grabbed national headlines in 2005 and 2006 when the legislature and then-Gov. M. Jodi Rell enacted a sweeping campaign finance reform package that not only established public funding for state races, but also:

    • Barred campaign committees from selling ad books to raise business and other special interest funds.
    • Dramatically limited political action committees’ abilities to transfer funds.
    • And restricted contributions by lobbyists and state contractors.

The Citizens’ Election Fund receives most of its funding from the sale of abandoned property. Candidates qualify for public funds by first raising seed money in small increments, between $5 and $250, from individuals. […]

The $27 million in public funds spent on state elections in 2018 — $12.8 million on legislative races and $14.2 million on gubernatorial and other statewide contests — represents 1/7th of 1% of all General Fund spending that year.

More importantly, advocates of the system say, as lobbyists’ influence over campaigns has dropped, legislators and governors have been more willing to revisit corporate and other business tax breaks.

An equivalent amount for Illinois would be a little over $60 million for all legislative and statewide races.

* The Question: Should Illinois adopt a similar campaign finance system? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…


survey services

  28 Comments      


Campaign roundup: Duckworth backs Valencia; SoS poll; Bost stands behind overturning legit results; No, Martwick ain’t running

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

City Clerk Anna Valencia picked up the support Tuesday of the woman who is expected to lead the Democratic ticket next year, securing the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Valencia’s bid to succeed outgoing Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White.

Duckworth, who is seeking a second term herself, is the first statewide elected official to weigh in on the heated four-way Democratic primary race for secretary of state.

In a video announcing the endorsement, Duckworth said she “can’t think of a better person to represent us and, more importantly, to serve the people of Illinois.”

“She comes from Granite City, she knows what working families are going through, she knows what every single one of us has faced in terms of difficulties in our life, but she’s persevered, and she’s continued to work hard,” Illinois’ junior senator said in the video. “I hope someday young girls and boys say ‘I want to be just like Anna.’ I certainly do.”

The video

Probably worth mentioning that Sen. Duckworth backed another state party chair candidate against US Rep. Robin Kelly. Rep./Chair Kelly is a longtime Giannoulias ally.

* Speaking of the SoS race

Republican state Rep. Dan Brady hasn’t entered the race to lead the Secretary of State’s Office — he’s still considering it — but a poll he initiated shows him just five points behind Alexi Giannoulias, a frontrunner in the Democratic race.

The Ogden & Fry poll asked respondents: If the election for Secretary of State were held today, for whom would you vote, Giannoulias or Brady? Results showed 43.8 percent of respondents would vote for Giannoulias, the former state Treasurer, compared to 38.7 percent who said Brady. Nearly 18 percent were undecided. […]

Poll numbers show two-thirds of downstate respondents had never heard of Giannoulias or Brady.

Translation: Few actually know who either of those guys are and Giannoulias is performing at almost precisely the generic Democratic level for this poll while Brady is above the generic Republican level. Brady has more solid GOP support in this poll (90 percent) compared to Giannoulias among Dems (82 percent). But the Republican is also doing a bit better among independents (34-26), who often tend to lean more GOP.

* US Rep. Mike Bost on the “Big Lie”

Some believe that lies about election laid the foundation for the insurrection. Bost voted to overturn the results of Pennsylvania and Arizona hours after the riots.

“I’m not worried about what history does with that,” Bost said. “Did they or did they not run their elections according to the Constitution? And the answer again is they did not.”

Narrator: They did.

* A silly story that produced an even sillier reaction last week…


Martwick ain’t running for mayor. No way, no how. Anyone who has talked to him should know this. Just ridic.

Also, the mayor really needs to just let it go, already. Sheesh.

* Related…

* Labor seems to be liking Alexi Giannoulias’ secretary of state bid

  25 Comments      


Another day, another politician calls for National Guard callup in Chicago

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For decades now, every time there’s a Chicago crime spike, some politician demands that the National Guard be called up. Republican gubernatorial candidate Gary Rabine is no exception to this hard and fast rule…

“As the leader of our state, Governor Pritzker needs to take a more active role in what is happening in our City,” Rabine said. “Real leaders get involved to solve the tough problems. They get their hands dirty. They work endlessly until they find resolution. We have blood in the streets. This is real life, Illinois citizens are being shot and killed at record numbers, this is a war zone. We need the Governor of our state to be an engaged leader who is involved and who will give problems of this magnitude the sense of urgency they deserve.”

Last weekend in Chicago there was a record-breaking weekend for violence as more than 104 people were shot with 19 fatalities. At least 13 of the people shot were children. Rabine said bad policies that are ruining policing have created these unforgivable outcomes.

“We have a Governor who not only is doing little to make our state safe, but he is also actively working to bring chaos and crime to our neighborhoods,” Rabine said. His Prisoner Review Board has used the pandemic as an excuse to release hundreds and hundreds of inmates – many of whom are violent offenders in Illinois communities. He signed into law a so-called ‘police reform’ bill that will only serve to make our communities and our police less safe. Gov. Pritzker must see the national news coverage of our City, depicting our City as a war zone. The lack of safety and security to our communities is unexceptable”

Rabine said it is time for Pritzker and the state to step up and lead to protect the citizens of Illinois. When it comes to real leadership, Pritzker doesn’t know what that looks like, he apparently has never had to lead in a crisis.

“If I were Governor, I would lead an urgent initiative to solve this dier problem,” Rabine said. “I would be putting major pressure on Mayor Lightfoot to get this situation resolved and when that doesn’t work, I would look at activating the National Guard to help clean up the streets and make the City safer. I would personally be doing everything I could to give the families of Chicago, Illinois the safety and security they deserve. Our communities deserve better than this massive lack of leadership currently displayed.”

I generally let this go, but I couldn’t help but notice the large number of typos in that release.

…Adding… Rabine’s spokesperson just called to say he inadvertently sent out the wrong version of the release. Click here.

Anyway, local crime is usually considered a local issue, but there are items in the new state budget that address local crime.

* Meanwhile, Rabine’s campaign bused in protesters to today’s Biden event. Pics from a subscriber…

  42 Comments      


ISBE says it’s waiting on CDC, then IDPH to issue fall classroom guidance

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chalkbeat

Illinois superintendents are pressuring the state board of education to release public health guidance immediately as school districts prepare to reopen classroom doors in the fall.

The Large Unit District Association, which represents 52 of Illinois’ largest school districts and more than half a million students throughout the state, sent state superintendent Carmen Ayala a letter this week demanding that the state publish public health guidelines for schools aligned with the Phase 5 reopening plan.

“We request that social distancing, quarantining, and masking guidelines in schools be consistent with health guidelines of Phase 5 as applied to other venues in Illinois,” said the letter.

John Burkey, executive director of the Large Unit District Association, said in an interview with Chalkbeat Chicago that school districts are excited to get students back into classrooms after the pandemic year, but district leaders need immediate guidance to bring back students. […]

The state board of education passed a resolution in May requiring school districts to reopen in the fall with limited exceptions for remote learning. Since school districts have to operate at full capacity, the letter raises concerns about social distancing, masks and quarantining students who have or are exposed to COVID-19.

“Under the 6-feet social distancing guidelines, it is impossible for most of our schools to operate at 100 percent capacity, “ said the letter. “Using 3-feet social distancing guidelines, full capacity is possible in most cases, but only with significant modifications.”

* The state board has responded by saying that updated CDC guidance is expected sometime in early July. In the meantime, schools should plan for “both looser CDC guidance and the potential that current guidance will remain in place”…


  14 Comments      


Help Illinois Electric Co-Ops, Municipalities, And Illinois Workers Prevent The Premature Closure Of Prairie State

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Lawmakers are on the verge of passing legislation that would raise electric rates and turn Illinois into an exporter of jobs and importer of energy from neighboring states with higher carbon intensity. While masquerading as a clean energy bill, the proposal would shut down highly efficient, state-of-the-art power plants in Illinois in favor of energy produced in states that are far behind on meeting carbon reduction goals. Legislators must reject this plan and keep energy affordable, reliable and made in Illinois.

Coming online in 2012 during the Obama-Biden Administration and purpose-built with $1 billion of emissions controls, Prairie State Energy Campus stands apart from older, traditional coal plants. Employing more than 650 full-time workers and another 1,000 union contractors, Prairie State has also partnered with state and federal officials to study ways to further cut emissions. Illinois Electric Cooperatives and municipalities that own Prairie State are committed to keeping energy affordable and reliable while we invest in a cleaner energy future, but we cannot let policy get ahead of technology. Forcing a premature closure of Prairie State will have affordability and reliability impacts for Illinois electric cooperative and municipal consumers. Prairie State is the bridge to Illinois’ energy future.

For more information and to get involved, click Help Illinois Electric Co-ops, Municipalities and Workers Prevent the Premature Closure of Prairie State (voicesforcooperativepower.com)

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Ogden & Fry: Pritzker fave/unfave at 54-41

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Via Politico

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor JB Pritzker or have you never heard of him?

I’ll have more on this poll in a bit, but I wanted to start out with this bit since Politico didn’t mention the governor’s actual statewide result.

* Methodology

Ogden & Fry,conducted a seven-question poll on Saturday June 26, 2021, with 554 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.The margin of error for this poll is +/-4.25% at the 95% confidence interval.

They did a test question of how respondents voted last year and were pretty close on the Biden vs. Trump result, 56.1-38.4 (57.5-40.5).

  23 Comments      


Pritzker signs major new Medicaid bill into law

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Illinois residents on Medicaid will have access to more services and some families with children in a state health insurance program may no longer have to pay premiums, thanks to a bill Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed into law Tuesday.

The new law puts into place an array of measures aimed at improving access to health care and affordability for those on Medicaid, which is a state and federally funded health insurance program for low-income people. More than 3 million people in Illinois were on Medicaid as of fiscal year 2020.

The law will give those on Medicaid access to marriage therapy and smoking cessation counseling, as well as require that every patient experiencing an opioid-related overdose or withdrawal be admitted to hospitals overnight when medically necessary. It increases the rates Medicaid will pay providers for certain services and will provide community-based support for veterans.

It will also require coverage of kidney transplant medications for undocumented people, among other things.

* Capitol News Illinois

Among many provisions, the bill provides that people covered under Medicaid will continue to be eligible throughout the COVID-19 public health emergency and for up to 12 months after the emergency expires.

It also calls on the Department of Healthcare and Family Services to establish a program for implementation of certified community behavioral health clinics by Jan. 1, 2022, and to develop a “comprehensive behavioral health strategy” that is to be submitted to the governor and General Assembly by July 1, 2022.

Other provisions include recognizing veteran support specialists as mental health professionals under the state’s Medicaid plan; coverage of both individual and group tobacco cessation programs; requiring in-patient treatment for anyone experiencing an opioid overdose or withdrawal if it’s determined to be medically necessary; coverage of kidney transplant medications regardless of a patient’s U.S. residency status; and providing a 10 percent increase, through March 31, 2022, in reimbursement rates for supportive living facilities, to be paid for with federal funds from the American Rescue Plan Act.

House Majority Leader Greg Harris, a Chicago Democrat and member of the Medicaid working group, said this year’s bill is aimed at addressing many of the health care disparities that have existed in Illinois for years but which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

* Center Square

Stephanie Altman, with Shriver Center on Poverty Law, said the new law ensures more people impacted by the pandemic are covered, despite their income and employment status, with a provision that continues Medicaid eligibility up to a year after the COVID-19 emergency is lifted by the governor.

“This legislation will also make health care coverage for children under the All Kids or CHIP program guaranteed under Medicaid without monthly premiums and reduce the harmful turning on and off of health care coverage permanently in Illinois,” Altman said at the signing ceremony in Downers Grove Tuesday.

The Illinois Health and Hospital Association praised aspects of the new law, including allowing inpatient detox services more than once in 60 days and requiring inpatient coverage for opioid withdrawal treatment, if medically necessary.

“There are other notable provisions in the Medicaid Omnibus legislation including a provision to require reimbursement for vaccinations at 70% of the median regional maximum rate; inpatient reimbursement for long-acting injectable medication for mental health and substance use disorders; a pilot program to prevent ‘lock-out’ kids who are staying beyond medical necessity; and reimbursement for immunosuppressive drugs for kidney transplants covered for noncitizens who meet residency and income criteria,” the group said in a policy position last month.

The bill passed both chambers without any opposition.

  3 Comments      


Biden’s Illinois visit preview

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

President Joe Biden will make his first trip to the Chicago area as president Wednesday with a visit to northwest suburban Crystal Lake, where he will push a portion of his domestic agenda aimed at easing the financial burden on working- and middle-class families.

Biden is scheduled to stop at McHenry County College to make the case for creating free community college, extending the child tax credit and achieving universal pre-K education, all facets of his American Families Plan that so far has garnered little support from Republicans.

While Biden carried Crystal Lake in the 2020 election, then-President Donald Trump won McHenry County as a whole, with 50% of the votes to Biden’s 47%.

The stop is the latest by Biden to swing regions of the country to highlight his efforts to drive a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which he has dubbed his Build Back Better agenda.

McHenry County is the only collar county Biden lost last year.

* Daily Herald

The president will discuss his American Families Plan, which includes checks of up to $300 for eligible families starting this month, and will be selling a bipartisan $973 billion deal on infrastructure.

“I’m excited about his coming, I know he wanted to go to one of the collar counties to visit suburban communities so I’m glad that he’ll do that,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Tuesday at an event in Downers Grove.

Assuming the infrastructure plan squeaks through Congress, it will dovetail with Illinois’ six-year capital plan passed in 2019, Pritzker said. […]

Republican state Sen. Craig Wilcox of McHenry is attending the event. “It certainly is momentous when a president comes to visit a part of the country that hasn’t seen that type of a visit before,” said Wilcox, a retired colonel in the Air Force. “For McHenry County, for Crystal Lake, for MCC, it’s a great honor to have any president come.”

* Lynn Sweet

I asked Psaki at the briefing, “Could you just explain a little bit more of how this trip to one of the redder parts of the bluest states in totality can advance the Biden policy and political agenda since there’s no swayable members of Congress? They’re all for you?”

Psaki said, “I would see this as less of a political trip” and that Biden “ran as someone who would represent not just Democrats, not just Republicans, not just independents, but all people.” […]

Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Gov. J.B. Pritzker will greet Biden when he lands Air Force One at O’Hare Airport before Biden takes a helicopter to McHenry College. Lightfoot will have a meeting with the president at the airport. Pritzker’s meeting may be in McHenry.

Biden and Lightfoot will huddle after Chicago suffered its most violent weekend of 2021, with 104 shot and 19 killed.

  8 Comments      


As expressway shootings surge, state still working on cam contract

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5

Just past the midpoint of 2021, the Chicago area is about to surpass the total number of expressway shootings for all of 2020.

As of Tuesday morning, the Illinois State Police had been called to 117 expressway shootings. That is more than twice the 51 shootings at this same time last year. And just short of the 128 for the entire year of 2020.

The menace of expressway shootings has been a vexing one for the Illinois State Police, who have previously noted to NBC 5 that the problem is especially severe here in comparison to other states.

And arrests are rare. Contrary to popular belief, expressway gunfire in Chicago is not typically spawned by road rage. Would-be victims often know their assailants and frequently refuse to cooperate with police.

* CBS 2 has been reporting on the super-slow rollout of expressway cams for quite a while. Here’s a story from early June

But for years now, CBS 2 has tracked the delayed installation and upgrades of the cameras rolling on Illinois’ expressways. The 600 cameras up now still can’t record video.

Back in February, the Illinois Department of Transportation announced a $12.5 million investment of taxpayer dollars for cameras and license plate readers that will go up in 47 different locations – specifically meant to help investigate expressway shootings.

So, where is that technology now?

IDOT told us to ask Illinois State Police, who told us they’re still in the planning phase:

    “In February of 2021, IDOT provided a $12.5 million grant to cover the costs of engineering, permitting, and labor associated with the purchase and installation of automated license plate readers (ALPR), controllers, servers/software, electrical power, and communications equipment required to install ALPR systems. The maintenance of the ALPR systems for up to two years is also included in this agreement. ALPR installations at 47 locations will include specialized cameras to read the license plate numbers of vehicles moving in traffic. The installations will also include a communication system to backhaul the video images to a central location where additional software is used to query and match license plates to existing license plate and vehicle databases. The purchase and installation of ALPR systems, software, and specialized cameras will aid in the investigation of Cook County expressway shootings. Currently, the Statement of Work is being finalized and a contract will follow to cover hardware and licensing for the next five years.”

* The law has been on the books since January of 2020. From a press release

The Tamara Clayton Expressway Camera Act (Expressway Camera Act) was signed into law on July 12, 2019 and became effective on Jan. 1, 2020. On Feb. 4, 2019, Ms. Clayton was on her way to work when she was tragically shot and killed while driving on Interstate 57 near Cicero Avenue. ISP investigators responded and the investigation into her death remains open and ongoing. The Expressway Camera Act requires the ISP, IDOT, and Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (ISTHA) to conduct a program to increase the number of cameras along expressways in Cook County. The images from these cameras will not be used for petty offenses, such as speeding

One of the bill’s original sponsors, Rep. Thaddeus Jones, was so incensed by the delay that he called for the resignation of Illinois Transportation Secretary Omer Osman in January.

  22 Comments      


Illinois has first Covid death-free day in almost 16 months

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times…

For the first time in nearly 16 months, Illinois has gone a full day without losing a resident to COVID-19.

The Illinois Department of Public Health reported no new COVID-19 fatalities Monday, which hadn’t happened previously since March 16, 2020 — a few days before Gov. J.B. Pritzker ordered residents to stay inside their homes as much as possible to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.

It’s still possible one or more fatalities could eventually be added to the rare zero-total. Officials often adjust daily figures based on delayed reports from hospitals, especially after a holiday.

And the grief is far from over. The state reported 11 deaths over the weekend, and another 16 Tuesday.

But for now, the end of a miserable 476-day stretch with viral deaths is the latest sign of optimism for a state slowly emerging from the pandemic.

* But

In the U.S., Illinois’ neighbor to the west, Missouri, is currently seeing the highest per-capita COVID infection rates in the nation, driven by that Delta variant. And Illinois’ three EMS regions that border Missouri are seeing an uptick in test positivity as well.

The Metro East’s 7-day average test positivity rate reached 5.1% as of June 3, the latest date made available by IDPH. The region’s test positivity rate has been climbing for two weeks, and has now reached positivity rates it hasn’t experienced since February. In contrast, the city of Chicago’s 7-day average COVID test positivity rate currently stands at 0.5%, after reaching a low of 0.3% early last week.

The Southern Illinois and West Central Illinois regions have also seen sharp rises in their COVID test positivity rates in the last week.

Counties with some of the lowest vaccination rates are in those three regions — especially Alexander County, which has lagged behind the rest of the state since vaccines began rolling out in December. Only 14.6% of Alexander County’s residents of all ages are fully vaccinated, compared with the entire state’s 48.9% vaccination rate.

Get your shots, people.

  13 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Another fiscal turning point

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

You cannot on the one hand constantly harp about decades of Illinois credit rating downgrades and then blithely dismiss the first bit of good Illinois rating news since George Ryan was governor.

It’s OK to step away from the “Illinois is awful” screaming for a moment in the wake of last week’s upgrade of Illinois’ bond rating by Moody’s Investors Service. While not the end of our problems by any means, this signals yet another important fiscal turning point.

Illinois’ long credit ratings slide began in May of 2003, when both Moody’s and Fitch dinged the state’s grade. The last upgrade the state was granted before last week’s action was 21 years ago, in June of 2000. The last time Moody’s upgraded Illinois’ rating was June of 1998. House Speaker Chris Welch had just barely graduated law school at the time.

The state’s credit rating was downgraded a total of 24 times starting in 2003. Eight of those downgrades, a third, came during just 20 months of former Gov. Bruce Rauner’s fiscally catastrophic administration. To say he had an outsized impact would be putting it mildly.

The climb back began in 2017, when some Republicans joined Democrats to pass an income tax hike over Rauner’s veto. It was a turning point. The downgrades all but stopped.

Just remember those above two paragraphs when Rauner’s impasse cheerleaders try to dismiss this Moody’s upgrade. We’d be in a far worse spot right now had they and Rauner won.

And, yes, of course the federal government has played a huge role in Illinois’ fiscal rebound over the past year or so. It has repeatedly pumped up the economy, which unexpectedly boosted Illinois’ coffers to the point where it didn’t need to use federal funds to patch its budget holes or tap federal aid to pay back federal borrowing.

The state did so well that it ended the fiscal year, which concluded on June 30, with an expected $2 billion surplus. That surplus will allow it to pay off $2 billion in pandemic-related borrowing this fiscal year.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congress has committed $126 billion to Illinois, mostly to the private sector, with about a third of the total in loans.

The airline industry in Illinois alone will receive almost $16 billion, about twice what the state government received this spring from the American Rescue Plan Act.

But it’s not like Illinois got a special deal out of Uncle Sam. The aid has been distributed fairly evenly among the states. California ended its fiscal year with an $80 billion surplus.

Prudently, most of that $8.127 billion in federal money for Illinois’ government hasn’t been appropriated. $1 billion was spent on one-time capital appropriations and $1.8 billion was spent on mostly one-time grants or temporary aid allowed by the federal government.

That leaves more than $5.3 billion in reserve. The hope in many states is that the federal government will wipe out their huge unemployment insurance trust fund debts. If not, some of that $5.3 billion might be used here to cover some of Illinois’ hole, sparing employers a gigantic tax hike.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Elgie Sims has been telling me for weeks that he was confident the new state budget would result in a credit rating upgrade.

Sims is not only a budget expert (joining the Senate’s budget staff after graduating from college in 1993), but he’s also a bond lawyer. He knows what the industry is looking for, and he and many others did what they could to deliberately produce a well-received budget.

Illinois has been one step away from junk bond territory since the Rauner days, so, no matter what you think of the New York rating agencies, the urgent importance of upgrades cannot be overstated.

“We stayed the course, we did not do anything irresponsible with that federal money, we paid down all that debt,” which Sims said is exactly what the ratings agencies wanted to see.

Rating agencies also prefer sustainable state revenues. The new budget permanently closes $655 million in corporate tax “loopholes,” as the governor calls them. Gov. J.B. Pritzker noted last week the move helps permanently pare down the state’s still-large structural deficit, which passing the progressive income tax last year could’ve all but eliminated.

Obviously, this federal boost won’t last. And Moody’s warned that pension and other state obligations “could exert growing pressure as the impact of federal support dissipates, barring significant revenue increases or other fiscal changes.”

But now they have some time to tackle the problems.

*** UPDATE *** Bond Buyer

Reaction has spanned the spectrum with market participants mostly saying it was deserved given the state’s fiscal progress and its COVID-19 pandemic recovery. Some said the upgrade was expected, a reason for the state’s narrowing spreads over the past few months. But they are quick to underline that’s the near-term view and chronic pension strains, past decisions that favored one-shots, an ongoing structural imbalance and out-migration weigh heavily on the state’s fiscal foundation.

“I think it’s important to bear in the mind Illinois is still the lowest-rated state” and “no one has waived a wand” and erased the state’s high liabilities, governances challenges and financial operating difficulties, Moody’s lead analyst Ted Hampton said in an interview last week. “But I think what’s going on now really represents the first very strong positive movement — positive enough to warrant an upgrade. It is to some extent a turning of the tide but the state still has a long way to go to look like the bulk of other states.” […]

Illinois should see some direct benefit when it next enters the market by drawing a broader base of buyers as some can’t purchase bonds at the Baa3 level and could help some hold on to the bonds. “To the extent that some buyers have an incrementally higher floor of credit quality” the state could draw more interest, Mousseau said.

“I think that the Moody’s upgrade will help the state GO and other related credits get better pricing when they next sell bonds,” said John Ceffalio, senior municipal research analyst at CreditSights Inc. “If Illinois continues on this credit path, which I expect, then it will lead to further positive ratings actions during fiscal 2022.”

  17 Comments      


Open thread

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Anything on your mind?

  21 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Wednesday, Jul 7, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend

Thursday, Jul 1, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

…Adding… I’ll be back Wednesday.

* Took a good long look at what’s out there and it’s pretty darned slow. So, I made a management decision to shut it down for a bit. I’ll talk with you next week. Have a great Independence Day holiday

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