Focus on the suburbs
Tuesday, Aug 10, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois Opportunity Project President Mark Cavers is right about the suburbs being the battleground for Gov. JB Pritzker in 2022 because the suburbs are always the biggest battleground…
In 2018, 38 percent of the overall vote came out of Cook County. However, this Democratic stronghold can be balanced out by the 96 downstate counties, where 37 percent of the vote is located. So, rather than a state dominated by Chicago, if Republicans can drive turnout among their voters, they can cancel out Democratic margins in Cook County.
If Republicans can successfully neutralize Cook County by turning out downstate voters, the election will be decided in the suburbs, where the remaining 25 percent of voters live.
And we just saw that there are voters who can be moved by the right message. In 2020, there were 681,000 voters statewide who voted against Pritzker’s tax-hike amendment but not for Trump.
These voters, predominantly located in the suburbs, have rejected Pritzker’s cornerstone issue, but they evaluate candidates individually. In that same 1892 Polling survey, 10 percent of those who said they voted for President Joe Biden had an unfavorable view of Pritzker, and 22 percent had no opinion. They are with Republicans on the message; Republicans just need the right messenger.
It remains an open question which Republican candidates up and down the ballot can successfully prosecute the case against Pritzker and the Democrats while clearing a competence and character bar that Trump struggled to clear in the minds of many voters.
The hard truth is the Republican Party has been scaring away suburban voters in droves for 20 years in Illinois (with some exceptions) with the issues they choose to run on and the types of people they nominate. Also, the sort of person who can gin up a ton of Downstate turnout is not generally the type who can play well in the suburbs. Bruce Rauner did it (barely winning the primary) and eventually brought peace to the party in 2018, but then eventually created loads of chaos.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 8:15 am:
“there are voters who can be moved by the right message”
What messaging, the same watery gruel that’s always served up: talking points against spending and taxes, “socialism,” less government and all the rest? This is not our parents’ suburbs.
- Suburbs - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 8:29 am:
It certainly seems that polling is starting to scare Dems that they could lose many sections of the suburbs over this public safety issue. We shall see if the GOP can take advantage of it.
- dirksen - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:12 am:
that’s the most ridiculous math I’ve ever seen. While he is right on vote share by geography he is selectively forgetting vote margins. Dems win the City roughly 83-17 and have exceeded 60% margins in sub cook for last 3 cycles. He’s not wrong on suburbs being the battle ground, but it’s an absurd premise that downstate will neutralize a beat down in Cook County. Plus, take a look at the trend in the collars–good luck getting 60% in DuPage these days.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:17 am:
Like Ob-Wan Kenobi the GOP’s only hope in the suburbs is going to be Kirk Dillard. The ’scaring away of the suburban voters that we have seen in the past is going to seem quaint vs what the rest of the candidates are going to accomplish.
- Shield - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:18 am:
Why didn’t Cavers put in the suburban favorable for Pritzker among Biden voters? Because if you do the math from the other provided numbers, it is pretty darn good and puts a damper on the no Trump/no tax hike voters. On top of that, Republicans have not been running from Trump, they’ve been running to him.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:20 am:
=== over this public safety issue.===
“Back the Blue” is far different than public safety concern.
It’s tough to see those like a Bailey, or “others” who seemingly can’t NOT bring in race as part of the “public safety” issue.
I’m looking forward (no snark, honestly) to see what any GOP messaging can look like that isn’t really a repurposing of wanting “old, angry, white” to be the winning formula.
I’ve given my thoughts to what the ILGOP should do, actually what it needs to do… but Tracy embraces racist thinkers, conspiracy theorists, even insurrectionists as part of a winning strategy. I doubt that is smart to winning the suburbs
- Responsa - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:24 am:
Constituencies are not monolithic and people do not think alike or always have the same issues and hot buttons. (See Fair Tax results as referenced above.) This is true for “communities” as well (women, Blacks, union members etc., etc). The governor will have something of a messaging problem as long as his communications to suburban voters primarily focus on “the suburbs” as an amorphous political entity rather than geographic and economic pieces. Whether it’s true or not, JB recently bragging that he is the most progressive governor in America may not have been well thought out in this regard.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:32 am:
I do find it wholly disingenuous when, say, IOP, decides it’s “Captain Obvious” to this then is oblivious to such poor messaging and messengers the ILGOP has currently.
This ain’t no referendum next election. Ya need candidates that’s also can be messaged and seen as acceptable
But… “simple thoughts”
- supplied_demand - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:39 am:
==However, this Democratic stronghold can be balanced out by the 96 downstate counties, where 37 percent of the vote is located.==
Seems like a baked-in assumption that Pritzker will lose all 96 of these counties. He did pretty well in the counties of St. Clair, Jackson, Champaign, Alexander, Fulton, Peoria, etc.
If you win 65% (he won 72% in 2018) of the Cook vote and a few downstate counties, it’s pretty much over.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 9:44 am:
===by the 96 downstate counties===
Old, angry, white, rural doesn’t like suburban moderates these days…
How do I know?
They want their own state in some instances.
This chatter is “down the bar after 3-4 beers” kind of hope, not a strategy.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 10:08 am:
From where I’m sitting, right now Law & Order is going to be THE issue of the next election. For voters, that cuts across party lines.
For the GOP, the issue will be finding a candidate that can win BOTH the primary and the general election. I can think of a couple of people, but they aren’t that well known and don’t have the needed financial resources … so, baring some major upsetting event, I expect it will be 4 mores years of JB
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 10:13 am:
When a team becomes a basement dweller, a good organization rebuilds it. Republicans seem to be going with what brought them to last place. Looking for the right message to attack? That seems rather empty. That was tried against Madigan for years, with disastrous results. What is the policy? What is being offered to voters?
There are some very smart Republicans right now, and they’re about to vote yes on a national infrastructure bill. They then could face their constituents and say they are trying deliver something big.
- SuburbanRepublican - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 11:09 am:
The reality of today’s GOP is that even most suburban Republican organizations are no different than what you will find in southern Illinois. Most still enthusiastically embrace Trump and the election was stolen narrative. Moderate conservative voices are an endangered species in every area of the GOP.
- truthteller - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 11:14 am:
Here is the MISSING facts, the trump/gop 2017 “taxcut” increased taxes on suburban voters in bluestates in a big way and there is NO walking that back. This will remain the driving force of suburban voters NOT voting for GOP. Then thrown in former GOv Rauner’s absolutely terrible administration of our state> Unless suburban voters all go brain dead, they are not going to vote GOP
- NorthsideNoMore - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 12:08 pm:
Wait till the Biden tax hits come, the burban blues will be sung loud and clear then. JB tax amend might be an issue too, we will see if there is a lingering effect from that.
- Publius - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 12:42 pm:
Trump tried the whole ‘Back the Blue’ & ‘Public Safety’ in the last election and it failed in the suburbs. It didn’t even work in the larger communities in the rest of the state. Not sure how it would work again without Trump. Trump is his own thing and a lot of people think they can be him when they cannot.
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 1:40 pm:
It’s not just law and order for many people COVID is perceived as a worse threat to them and their children. That’s true in the ‘burbs as well as the city. With the GOP both nationwide and to some extend within the state being pro-COVID, I don’t think the suburbs are going to tip so easily for them.
- halfway retired - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 4:54 pm:
Suburban voters are going to love Rep. Miller’s speech to the GOPoobah’s at the state fair.
- MyTwoCents - Tuesday, Aug 10, 21 @ 5:39 pm:
Like others have mentioned, while the conclusion is accurate, the supporting evidence is sorely lacking. While the GOP will dominate downstate the odds of them running up the score the way the Democrats run up the score in Cook County are pretty slim. Also, the suburbs are changing and not in a way that is in the GOP’s favor.