* We’re going to take yesterday’s Census news in chunks today. We’ll start with Downstate…
“We see a strong relationship to population size with small counties tending to lose population and more populous counties tending to gain people,” [Marc Perry, senior demographer in the US Census Bureau’s Population Division] said.
In general, across the country, Perry said people are moving to larger cities.
“Counties with 1,000 to 5,000 people, 5,000 to 10,000 people and 10,000 to 50,000 people also lost people this decade on average,” Perry said. “Only two categories of counties showed growth. Counties with between 50,000 and 100,000 people grew by 4.1% while counties with 100,000 or more people grew by 9.1%.”
* Brenden Moore…
Downstate Illinois is continuing to hollow out, with U.S. Census data, released Thursday afternoon, confirming the region’s losses as the main driver of the state’s population loss over the past 10 years.
All but 14 of Illinois’ 102 counties experienced population decline this past decade, but the distribution was uneven, with eight counties in populous northeastern Illinois (Cook County, the five suburban “collar” counties and exurban Grundy and Kendall counties) combining for nearly 149,000 in population growth.
But, the rest of the state combined to lose nearly 167,000 people, creating a net loss of more than 18,000 residents and making Illinois just one of three states to lose population this decade. […]
There were some pockets of downstate growth, with Champaign’s population increasing 8.2% to 88,302, making it one of the state’s 10 largest cities. Bloomington also registered a 2.6% jump to 78,680.
Other areas of growth included Carroll, Effingham, Johnson, Monroe and Williamson counties.
* AP…
The Danville, Illinois, area was among 72 metro areas that lost population between the 2010 and 2020 census. The area just west of the Illinois/Indiana border saw the third-largest percentage decline of those 72, losing 12.5% of its population, according to the Census Bureau.
Kendall County, located about 50 miles southwest of Chicago and home to communities including Oswego and Yorkville, was Illinois’ fastest-growing county, growing nearly 15%.
* Tribune…
Downstate, Carroll, McLean, Champaign, Effingham, Monroe, Williamson and Johnson counties showed slight growth.
But several downstate counties suffered significant population losses of at least 10%, including some in western and southern Illinois. Alexander County at the southwestern tip of the state had the biggest loss, shedding 36% of its residents over the decade, shrinking from 8,238 people to 5,240.
* And while some college towns increased population, others did not…
Coles County’s population dropped nearly 13% in the past decade, from 53,873 in 2010 to 46,863 in 2020, according to new U.S. Census numbers.
This came as a disappointment for Mattoon City Administrator Kyle Gill.
“I figured we might see a drop in numbers, but I didn’t expect it to be that much,” said Gill. “Especially for the whole county.”
Mattoon dropped from 18,555 people in 2010 to 16,870 in 2020. Charleston also shrank in population from 21,838 to 17,286. […]
Jackson County, home of Southern Illinois University Carbondale, was down 12%. McDonough County, home of Western Illinois University, had a 16.5% decline.
* SJ-R…
In Sangamon County, 2010’s population of 197,465 dropped 0.57%, or 1,122 people, to 196,343. The city of Springfield’s population dropped 1.5%, from 116,250 in 2010 to 114,394 in 2020. […]
Molly Berns, executive director of the Springfield-Sangamon County Regional Planning Commission, said the drop in Springfield and Sangamon County’s population wasn’t as large as predicted based on 2019 population estimates from the Census Bureau.
“You never want to be pleased with a population decline,” she said. “I was kind of bracing myself. We knew there was going to be some sort of drop in the population.”
Berns said Springfield and Sangamon County, like communities across Illinois and the Midwest, are experiencing the effects of an aging population, couples having fewer children, a reduction in manufacturing and other good-paying jobs, and the allure of major metropolitan areas for young adults and warmer climates for older people.
*** UPDATE *** Click here and you’ll see how freshman US Rep. Mary Miller regularly bashes Chicago…
But, here’s the thing. Miller lives in Coles County, which lost 13 percent of its population in ten years. The Danville area is also in her district and lost 12.5 percent of its population.
So, maybe try a little less Chicago-bashing and a whole lot more focusing on solving the very real problems in her own neighborhoods?
- OneMan - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:41 am:
Wonder how much of the college town reduction was caused by students being home via COVID and confusion about where they should be counted at.
- SAP - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:45 am:
The land should vote people are going to hate this.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:50 am:
Just confirms that … when discussing losing a congressional seat, it’s a downstate seat that needs to go.
Usually that would mean Mary Miller should worry; Freshman, no built in constituency, no base that could overwhelm veteran incumbents…
… enter insurrectionists and conspiracy theorists, some even campaigning for Miller, along with preachers “proud to be white” backing her too.
Rodney Davis can begin his shopping, being afraid of Mary Miller, maybe sharing a district with LaHood…
But you look at these numbers, downstate loses the seat, and loses the political muscle too.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:54 am:
===Wonder how much of the college town reduction was caused by students being home via COVID and confusion about where they should be counted at.===
Given declining/struggling enrollment rates at some of the state’s campuses before the pandemic, and that several of our neighbors charge out of state tuition or provide instate tuition to kids from Illinois that is significantly lower than instate tuition for kids from Illinois at our own institutions, the remote college courses could have actually helped Illinois if students attending out of state schools stayed home and reported their residence as their parents home instead of where they attended the university.
For the future of Illinois it is absolutely critical that we address the fact that tuition at our state universities drives students to pursue education in other states and we shouldn’t be surprised when they don’t rush back to our down state communities and the state that wanted to hang them out to dry in order to continue to allow zero taxes on federally taxed retirement, and a tax structure that favors billionaires and the ultra wealthy while saddling university studies with excessive debt when compared to our REPUBLICAN controlled neighboring states.
- Arsenal - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:56 am:
Really sounds like overall, Republican policies are failing the state. There’s some exceptions, tho.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:57 am:
===enter insurrectionists and conspiracy theorists, some even campaigning for Miller, along with preachers “proud to be white” backing her too.===
It might be prudent for whoever runs in a primary against Miller to have a back pocket plan for running as an independent.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 9:58 am:
Let’s vote for trickle down economics and Raunerism, downstate. Self-inflicted economic wounds are not going to reverse the declines and gains by the larger urban areas. The Fair Tax would have helped.
As an elitist liberal, I deign to support rural communities with the help of government (oww, can’t stoop like I used to). State government under Pritzker is doing some good for downstate: capital bill, budgets with funding for education, etc. The feds could also kick in some great help with the bipartisan infrastructure bill and Democratic budget plan (assuming they pass, which is not certain). Downstate is getting federal help via the child tax credits, bailout of state/local governments, etc.
- Amalia - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:01 am:
But, but, counties…..
- Blue Dog - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:02 am:
As much as I hate to say. Alexander County should be forced to consolidate.
- Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:03 am:
But all those Republican run small towns and county government should be able to stop the flow of people out of those small towns right?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:06 am:
I think the “exodus” spin now in context was like buyers remorse thingy for leaving their hometown, family farm, etc.
“Everyone is leaving”
Not exactly… but if that makes you feel better…
The real comedic aspect as as Illinois becomes (and in this case using *this* census) more diverse, the Trumpkin/Raunerites downstate who seemingly are old and white, will prolly be even more angry in rural Illinois.
Losing the suburbs, college towns growing with diversity too… Tracy welcoming racist thinkers, insurrectionists, conspiracy theorists… like the conspiracy of the phony “exodus” that’s actually happening downstate…
If a party needed a regroup, reset, and recruit plan, it’s the former GOP here in Illinois.
- Scott - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:06 am:
– OneMan — “..college town reduction was caused by students being home via COVID…”
I’m sure that was part of it, but I know that many of the schools that struggled through the Rauner Budget Crisis are still trying to pull out of that. WIU, for example, lost ~40% of their student population from 2010 to 2020. Looking at year-to-year, that number had decreased a little every year (average of ~2.48% decrease every year from 2010 to 2015) then fell “off a cliff” when the state budget issues really hit (average of 8.94% drop per year from 2016-2019).
Also because of the budget crisis, the university had to go through 3 separate rounds of layoffs of employees, which also caused a big hit to the local population. Some former employees stuck around, but many decided to look elsewhere.
COVID didn’t help, but I think the majority of the blame can fall squarely on Rauner and the representatives who enabled him.
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:18 am:
“The land should vote people are going to hate this.”
They’re going to hate it for a brief moment, until they invent a reason to tell themselves it’s all lies.
Anyway, turns out that as far as the average American is concerned, cities are the “American heartland.” Not sure what this means for the Rural Diner Takes industry some east coast political journalists have been pumping for the last 5 years.
- SOIL M - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:21 am:
First, for all of those assigning blame to down state Republicans, explain Alexander, with total Democrat control for decades, compared to Johnson, Williamson,Effingham and the few others which had small gains.
Political Blame Games will not solve this problem and only distract from trying to come together to stop the leak.
A little perspective.
During this ten year period, Alexander County experienced three major flooding disasters. Including a federal buy out following the 2011 flood. This was quickly followed by major flooding in the New Year’s Flood of 2015-2016 which was just as devastating to the County, but did not receive a Federal Disaster Declaration. Again a major disaster in 2019 which did qualify for Federal Disaster Declaration.
Add to that the closing of Federal Housing Projects in Cairo and Thebes which relocated many families out of the County.
Playing blame games wont help figure out how to get young working families to raise their kids here and make the bond that keeps them living here.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:28 am:
=== First, for all of those assigning blame to down state Republicans, explain …===
Oh. I’m not blaming anyone, I’m throughly mocking these doomsayer Republicans who consistently and continually voted to a ruinous level with Rauner… on higher education and painfully against their region(s)
Oh, I’m not blaming. I’m laughing too hard for that.
But it’s not a laughing matter is it?
It wasn’t when the state had no budget for a whole General Assembly but the cheers were heard… especially made and led by downstate Raunerites.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:37 am:
=== how to get young working families to raise their kids here and make the bond that keeps them living here.===
Exporting college freshmen to Iowa, Michigan, Alabama, Kentucky… and then those same grads either moving to Chicago or elsewhere is probably something one would want to stop, but then again, it was Raunerites who that refused to fully fund higher education during Rauner’s term, hurting their districts and regions, so…
- Leap Day William - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:46 am:
===Wonder how much of the college town reduction was caused by students being home via COVID and confusion about where they should be counted at.===
So, I can disclose that I was an Enumerator for the 2020 Census and my coverage area included downstate college towns (C-U and Charleston). Student who were living in the dorms and certified private housing (greek life houses, co-ops, private dorms, etc.) were counted as living in that town and were reported by the universities as such. The students who were living in the apartments were trickier but the question was phrased “Had the pandemic not happened, where were you supposed to be living on April 1?”, and the survey went from there. A good number reported “the dorms”, but the ones who were living elsewhere were enumerated with whatever that address was.
However, there were still a lot of vacant apartments when we finally got to doing in-person counts in July/Aug/Sept, so we went to a lot of leasing companies and had them pull their records for the time in question (which the census requires them to provide by law), and enumerated that way.
It was a pretty seamless process, but with our efforts being cut short by the Trump administration, there’s no doubt that in the college towns people were missed. I was not surprised to see that while Champaign posted growth, Urbana did not, and my anecdotal experience says that’s mostly from undercounting the non-dorm dwellers.
My area also included Vermilion County, and from my observation that area was not terribly undercounted because at least 1/3 of the addresses I was sent to enumerate were clearly vacant for a very long time.
- DuPage Saint - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:52 am:
Never happen but time for some counties to be merged. Should have a minimum population to be a county or is disbanded. and on other side, counties with large populations should have their townships disolved.
- EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 10:58 am:
==and on other side, counties with large populations should have their townships disolved.==
Hint, hint. Sangamon County’s Capital township. Have the city of Springfield merge into Capital Township then annex the rest of Springfield and Woodside townships (including the rural areas and donut holes within the city).
Ball and Chatham townships could easily be merged.
- SWIL_Voter - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:09 am:
I was born a country boy and still much prefer the slower pace of life outside cities, and if I could live closer to my folks in Knox County I would, but these rural areas are just inhospitable to raising a family. No jobs, no culture, in lots of places you can’t even get on the internet or conveniently go to the grocery store. Add in all this anti-social COVID denier insanity, I can’t imagine ever returning. How could I?
- HappyToaster - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:31 am:
You can’t keep them down on the farm.
The lack of growth in Metro East (and the overall St Louis MSA) is probably addressable, at least in part, by policy choices.
- Jibba - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:35 am:
“Downstate, Carroll, McLean, Champaign, Effingham, Monroe, Williamson and Johnson counties showed slight growth.”
Leave it to the Trib to minimize one of the best growth stories and thus obscure downstate’s best model for growth. Not everyone can have a monster university like UI, but all universities have staff, out-of-town money coming in, businesses servicing students, etc. All the universities can be growth centers for their regions, assuming a reasonable amount of state support to keep tuition lower than out-of-state alternatives. And universities don’t just have jobs for liberal professors…they employ everyone from painters to cooks.
Jobs in small town manufacturing and farming aren’t going to expand until climate change makes the coasts and south unlivable. We’re left with the choice of allowing downstate to depopulate and go back to gravel roads, or investing in areas and occupations that actually can grow. Raunerites didn’t care, and it cost us at the vulnerable directionals like EIU, WIU, and SIU. The proof is in the numbers, and it’s right in front of us. Those are the failed policies, and Republicans will be on the outs until they reject that nonsense.
- Arsenal - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:43 am:
==First, for all of those assigning blame to down state Republicans, explain Alexander, with total Democrat control for decades, compared to Johnson, Williamson,Effingham and the few others which had small gains.==
No, I don’t think I will.
For a solid decade, all we heard from the Tribbies, the Raunerites, etc. was that Chicago’s liberal policies were shoving people out of the state. Now, we have actual data, and we can tell that Chicago is actually growing, while the places that resist Chicago’s policies the most are mostly shrinking- and that the extent of the population loss statewide has been *vastly* overstated. It ain’t on me to explain anything.
The people who were wrong for a decade need to explain something, tho.
- Ebenezer - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:46 am:
This is very much a national phenomena. Large counties getting larger, and small counties getting smaller. I don’t think there is much policy will do to change that. Jobs are more and more specialized, and a larger pool of candidates improves the chance of a good match. If you are a small town outside of easy reach of a metro, the prospects are tough.
When your kids need to leave town and join a different culture to thrive, the local politics gets will get depressing.
One reason for the strength of Eastern Bloc, is that there is not a reality-based policy that leads to rosy outcomes in many of these communities.
- PublicServant - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:50 am:
=== So, maybe try a little less Chicago-bashing and a whole lot more focusing on solving the very real problems in her own neighborhoods? ===
She wasn’t elected to solve problems with gumming, she was elected tot week the libs, and incite hotheads.
- PublicServant - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:51 am:
I hate spellcheck…gubmint.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 11:52 am:
===The people who were wrong for a decade need to explain something===
Look, people have left. Lots and lots of them. That cannot be disputed.
But how many times have the goofs on the far right compared Illinois to Greece or Chicago to Detroit, or… well, any number of things?
They deliberately created the impression that the state is dying and their wrong-headed approach has effected policy debate for a very long time. Illinois is not healthy by any means, but it ain’t dead, either. The mouth breathers need to sit the heck down for a bit.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:01 pm:
The problem with small towns is they are often one company towns and if that company leaves the country the people there are left holding the bag.
Maybe more remote work will save the small town/rural areas. It is too soon to tell.
- Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:06 pm:
Williamson and Johnson counties showed slight growth.
While good news, minus the Illinois Penal Industrial Complex that is southern Illinois, I wonder if these numbers would be the same.
- JS Mill - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:24 pm:
=The problem with small towns =
Is that, by and large, teh focus on “keeping taxes low” instead of investing in their communities. What additional proof is needed to prove that people want to live in places that have “stuff”?
Small towns ofetn fil to invest in regular maintenance and upgrades in order to save money (yet the local farmers have the best most modern equipment).
Small towns and rural America is doing this to themselves.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:30 pm:
The bipartisan federal infrastructure bill alone should help many rural communities. Nineteen Republican senators see this and made nice with Democrats to help their constituents. This with the bipartisan state capital bill would be great investments for our many of our communities.
- Cubs in '16 - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:40 pm:
===So, maybe try a little less Chicago-bashing and a whole lot more focusing on solving the very real problems in her own neighborhoods?===
That would require a skill set that I don’t believe she possesses. Or wants to.
- Mason born - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 12:55 pm:
Something I wonder is if post Covid work from home becomes more common what effect will that have on Downstate population. Salary goes a lot further down state then the Chicago metro. While it has less going on in regards to night life someday find that a quieter scene nicer for raising kids. The difference in crime reporting may also make Downstate communities look appealing. Before someone says it, not every community down here is missing broadband.
- Scott - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 1:19 pm:
– Mason born –
That’s my hope as well. More businesses switching over to “work from home” plus generally lower cost of living could help some of the smaller communities grow a bit, or at least halt the trend of losing population.
In the rural areas around where I live, there’s a lot of really small towns that are serviced by a small regional co-op for TV/phone/internet, and their internet plans are just as good (if not a bit better) than what I have with Comcast (and the co-op doesn’t have data caps). Speeds up to 1 gig down (250 Mbps up) are fast enough for the vast majority of applications.
- zatoichi - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 2:04 pm:
I am a Chicago kid who moved back to Charleston after retiring. Went to EIU and had a career that took me around the country. Now have an affordable home with 2 acre, easy access to CU/Effingham, a university brings other benefits, and friends who also moved back. I recommend smaller towns. At the same time, I cannot think of anything Mary Miller has brought/done for this area beside complaining about Chicago or her poor Jan 6 speech in DC. Easy to go negative. Much harder to support where you live when stuff gets a little tough.
- Grateful Gail - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 2:15 pm:
Mason born….have to agree. Raising children in a small community is so much less stressful than in a large city. Neighbors help neighbors, families know each other, and with the proximity to a city (an hours away) there is still the cultural activities people may want. I just don’t ever want to live in a place where I have to worry when I walk out the back door, or that I have to fear my children may be shot walking down the street. There are trade offs, but overall, living in southern Illinois with the safety, and small town atmosphrere makes up for the things we don’t have. One daughter though, has moved to Chicago, another to Ohio……..but they have taken their southern Illinois roots with them. And by the way………..I am not a Republican.
- Amalia - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 2:59 pm:
chicago and nearby suburbs have tons of areas where you know your neighbors and where you don’t fear being shot walking down the street or out your back door. map the shootings and you will see that most of them take place in a few areas. avoid those…that may be a reason for the population decline in the city.
- Not Sophisticated - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 3:07 pm:
I dunno, I visit Chicago fairly regularly but would never desire life in a mega metro area. The anonymity is great but after a while, imparts a hollowness. The energy is nice for a while until you normalize and realize it’s just sirens, traffic and artificial light (which drowns out the night sky). The burbs are better but add significant commute. It all costs a lot.
I’ll visit but I’m always glad to get back to the simpler pleasures of less populated areas. A large company I’m familiar with instituted full remote from this point forward. Many employees who were living in the metro area immediately moved as far out as reliable broadband would take them. I hope that trend grows.
- The House Rules - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 3:10 pm:
Then she certainly won’t mind if the federal infrastructure bill be appropriated by population across the state, right?
- Franklin - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 3:49 pm:
Strange world. Downstate Republicans have absolutely no say in this state so you blame them for population losses? Maybe, just maybe, the fact that state policy is driven by Chicago might mean that the field is systematically stacked against downstate communities. Definitely a contributing factor. Illinois’ laws are based upon the upstate experience, not on downstate reality. Sometimes that’s inadvertent due to demographic weight. Sometimes it deliberate to punish ‘red’ communities. Does that explain it all? No. This is a national, even global, trend. But it is far more rationale than these half-baked sniping against downstate Republicans.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 3:55 pm:
=== Strange world. Downstate Republicans have absolutely no say in this state so you blame them for population losses?===
Strange that for a whole General Assembly downstate Republicans voted against their districts, regions, higher education… gleefully.
I have the receipts.
=== it is far more rationale than these half-baked sniping against downstate Republicans.===
Only someone half baked would ignore Rauner and the Republicans complicit to severe damage. Purposely.
Strange indeed.
“Receipts upon request”
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 13, 21 @ 4:05 pm:
===Maybe, just maybe, the fact that state policy is driven by Chicago might mean that the field is systematically stacked against downstate communities. Definitely a contributing factor. Illinois’ laws are based upon the upstate experience, not on downstate reality. Sometimes that’s inadvertent due to demographic weight.===
Old, angry, white, rural… victims.
This was a good one.
===Sometimes that’s inadvertent due to demographic weight===
Hmm