Remap problem coverage roundup
Tuesday, Aug 17, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Background is here if you need it. Capitol News Illinois…
Republicans in the Illinois General Assembly say new, detailed census numbers released last week show the legislative maps that Democrats pushed through in the spring are unconstitutional.
The Census Bureau released the data Thursday, Aug. 12, several months later than usual due to delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors. The numbers show population counts down to the block level, which is what lawmakers need in order to draw districts that are as close to equal in population as possible.
Due to the delays, Democrats who control the General Assembly drew maps using population estimates based on survey data. Under the Illinois Constitution, waiting beyond June 30 for the official data would have triggered a provision putting the process in the hands of a bipartisan legislative commission in which Democrats could have lost their partisan advantage. […]
If the maps are found to be unconstitutional, though, it is not certain that the court would invoke the state constitution’s provision calling for the bipartisan commission.
Democrats could argue that they met the constitution’s June 30 deadline and, therefore, only need to go back and make adjustments to the maps to bring them into compliance.
* Sun-Times…
Asked to respond to the Republican lawmakers’ claims, a spokeswoman for Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said Democrats are still “analyzing the data. We have no further updates.” […]
State Senators Omar Aquino and Elgie Sims, two Chicago Democrats who oversaw the senate’s redistricting committee, said in a joint statement they continue to analyze the information released by the Census Bureau but “our commitment to the people of Illinois remains the same: we support a fair map that reflects the broad racial and geographic diversity of Illinois.
“As we go through this review process, if it becomes clear that updates need to be made, we will take the appropriate steps to do so,” they said.
“This has been a unique Census, and it’s important we take time to fully understand the data. This includes the impact of ‘differential privacy,’ which is which is used by the Census Bureau to protect identities of respondents but may also result in inaccuracies, especially in more ethnically and racially diverse communities.”
* Center Square…
Pritzker on Monday said lawmakers may have to rework things.
“And to the extent that there are changes that will need to be made, that’s certainly something the Legislature will need to take up and I’ll consider,” Pritzker said.
He said something similar this spring before approving the maps.
“I think there will be Census data that comes out and there may need to be some adjustments made as a result of that Census data,” Pritzker said June 1.
* SJ-R…
Political consultant Frank Calabrese, who performed an analysis of Census data for the Capitol Fax newsletter, said he found three new legislative districts that differed in population from the statewide average by more than 10 percentage points.
According to Calabrese, the new district for Rep. LaMont Robinson, D-Chicago, has a population of 124,823 based on the official 2020 Census, or 15% higher than the House district average of 108,581.
On the other hand, Calabrese said the new district created for Rep. Barbara Hernandez, D-Aurora, was 15.4% below the population average, while the new district occupied by Sen. Mattie Hunter, D-Chicago, was 11% above the average population for new Senate districts.
- Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 9:57 am:
I look forward to the open and transparent process the Democrats will use to make adjustments to the maps.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 9:58 am:
Interesting Make you wonder why GOPIes failed to get cluess Trump and Wilbur Ross to get Census # done on time. Can one conclude the hate of certain groups clouds any common sense
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:06 am:
When will the Illinois political media start noting that the “Bipartisan Commission” has only been used 3 times (Census maps of 1980, 1990, & 2000); all 3 times it deadlocked; and all 3 times the Secretary of State drew a name from a hat. This means the Illinois GOP, which has lost 4 of the last 5 gubernatorial elections; which has not controlled the Senate since 2003; and which has not controlled the House since 1997; has a 50/50 luck of the draw chance of controlling the entire remap process.
Bueller? Bueller?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:07 am:
=== I look forward to the open and transparent process the Democrats will use to make adjustments to the maps.===
They have 71 and 36
Durkin blew it by making it about the Voting Rights Act.
As long as it complies…
- John Lopez - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:26 am:
Did anyone catch the latest unofficial version of IL’s congressional remap by Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Dave Wasserman he tweeted late last week with actual Census 2020 data applied?
He sketched out a way for Democrats to make new IL-17 a Biden district due to “weak downstate” numbers.
Also, whoever giving Wasserman IL help, quietly carving a 2nd Hispanic congressional district, as new version Wasserman consolidates Hispanic populations in Cook, Kane and McHenry counties, joining the West Chicago and Aurora components of the 2nd Hispanic congressional district from his previous version.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:29 am:
The GOP play was about the commission. IMHO the Dems have effectively parried that by adopting maps before the constitutional deadline. If their review of the maps show significant concerns, I’d expect revisions to be popped when the congressional map is adopted. Regarding transparency, it’s hard not to see through the Dems strategy.
- twowaystreet - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:32 am:
==When will the Illinois political media start noting that the “Bipartisan Commission” has only been used 3 times==
It’s been used four times. Before this year, 2011 was the only time it wasn’t used since the constitution was adopted in 1970.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:36 am:
===Did anyone catch…===
This idea of a 14-3 possible map that Pritzker world actually sign is folly.
It’s one thing to sign maps that others call unfair, it’s another to say you won’t sign a map legislators drew… drawing away 2 Republican districts, even if one is a given due to reapportionment
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:46 am:
twowaystreet -
When was the 4th time? Media citation of being used 3 times.
https://www.nprillinois.org/politics/2021-05-28/public-preferences-on-redistricting-revisited
- twowaystreet - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:51 am:
71, the first remap: https://www.ilga.gov/commission/lru/28.RedistrictingSince1970.pdf
- H-W - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 10:57 am:
“Democrats could argue that they met the constitution’s June 30 deadline and, therefore, only need to go back and make adjustments to the maps to bring them into compliance.”
Exactly. Had the Democrats waited for the new data, they would have missed the deadline, and then tried to argue it was the fault of the Census Bureau. The Republicans then might have had a legal argument saying the Dems. could have offered a provisional map but chose not to do so.
Instead, the Dems. met their legal obligation to produce a map by June 1. Now that the map is problematic due to the newly available Census data, the Dems. simply need to revise their map to match the new August data. Republicans cannot make a process argument. The process was followed.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:17 am:
twowaystreet -
Thank you. Although it was only for the 1972 election (the GA adopted it for the rest of the decade).