58 Comments - Downstate - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:03 pm: Agreed. PNA repeal didn’t hit most people’s radar. Going to take a lot of $$s to make that a campaign issue. Lots of other issues though that could filter to the top before next November. Inflation being one. - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:07 pm: Both - I disagree that the PNA repeal won’t endanger Dems, and I agree that the national dynamics will work against the D’s - NotRich - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:08 pm: I like Dan, smart guy.. but he lives in a soft progressive bubble.. I have to go by what I hear from people I know.. my daughter ( a solid Dem voter) is worried about the crime seeping out into the suburbs from the city. She is concerned about the fact that when she shops for groceries 20% of her list is not on the shelves.. and what is on the shelves is 25% more expensive.. and that Democrats like Didech don’t think she deserves to know that her underage daughter is in need of an abortion.In DuPage Trump will be an afterthought.. Rep Didech and the House D caucus has lost my daughter.. - Merica - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:09 pm: One of the Black Caucus pillars was to change the Illinois Procurement Code, so that instead of awarding contracts to the lowest cost bidder, contracts are now awarded to a vendor with a diversity and inclusion plan. The result of this will be to make everything the state buys, more expensive. I am sorry, but that is a losing political strategy. - Gob Bluth - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:10 pm: I don’t think members should underestimate how the National culture debate can trickle down and affect down ballot races. I think some reps (ie, David Olsen) got caught in a blue wave with National momentum in 2018. Olsen didn’t campaign a ton, but I think Anne Stava Murray was also kind of an unknown with a (D) next to her name that year too. - Have to agree... - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:11 pm: You will hardly win, if you don’t work your own district. - Know It All - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:12 pm: What a convenient cop out. He preemptively blames national dynamics, dodges any semblance of sensitivity to parents’ rights or victims of violent crimes, and sprinkles in a “try harder” to pretend effort in the field can cover up complacency on the job. Moderate Dems are right to feel anxiety about 2022. They may survive a primary only to be dragged underwater in the general. Madigan understood this and knew how to position his caucus safely ahead of a mid-term election year. - Techie - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:16 pm: It’s noteworthy that a moderate Democrat ran and lost in Virginia, the same state from which a corporate-friendly senator has been gutting provisions from the reconciliation package that would actually help people. Perhaps if Democrats want to win elections, they have to deliver what Americans want, instead of blocking progress in the interest of campaign cash. I don’t think ensuring paid family leave and having Medicare cover vision, hearing, and dental will result in losing elections. Quite the opposite. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:20 pm: My first blush take? Rep. David Olsen How did Olsen lose? Policy? Votes? The best incumbent legislators that win tough races with even tougher votes… are the ones that can never be outworked in the district come “door knocking” time. I’ll start with that. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:23 pm: I sort of agree that those issues won’t move the needle, but crime, inflation, supply chain, COVID handling will (as I mentioned yesterday if it appears IL authorities are just winging it they will own it). If the environment on this issues doesn’t improve within a year, the party in power will suffer the consequences. Not dramatically here, but some IL D reps and senators may be out of jobs that didn’t plan to be. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:24 pm: -One of the Black Caucus pillars was to change the Illinois Procurement Code- The next person in IL to decide their vote based on the Procurement Code will be the first. - SWIL_Voter - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:25 pm: He’s right, but only assuming the GOP doesn’t dump 10s of millions of dollars in propaganda on those two issues. They’ll likely spend money lying about something more scintillating and that’ll be what leads to Dem losses - Montrose - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:28 pm: I think he is right, but I also think folks need to stop acting with surprise that the first elections after a Dem sweep and swinging to the Republicans. Sure, there are different specific issues at play, but I think it was Mark Twain that said (paraphrsing), “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:29 pm: I half agree with the Rep. Constituent services and name recognition go a long way. Enough tough votes or stubborn avoidance or contrarianism against the prevailing sentiment go a long way in the other direction. - Da big bad wolf - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:34 pm: === Code, so that instead of awarding contracts to the lowest cost bidder, contracts are now awarded to a vendor with a diversity and inclusion plan. The result of this will be to make everything the state buys, more expensive.=== How does “diversity” make things “expensive?” - OverReach - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:37 pm: Voted disagree, because the repeal of PNA is part of the national dynamic of parents being told that they have no voice in their child’s health care, what they are being taught at school, etc. I can hear the ad now, a woman’s concerned voice, “representative so and so doesn’t think you need to know when your 14 year old daughter is having an invasive medical procedure “ - Shield - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:37 pm: Didech is right, particularly if he is referring to today’s Illinois Playbook. From that piece, “Suburban voters care about the economy, ‘not the four pillars or the abortion bill,’ the lawmaker said.” What that unnamed legislator is apparently too afraid to say is that their constituency is or they view their constituency as suburban whites. Nevermind that the suburban growth in the past two decades has been driven by people of color, not whites. Furthermore, if people don’t care about those things, why would you run on them? On that same beat, if people don’t care about them, then they also aren’t a liability. On top of that, if you’re concern is economic, there were huge changes in the ILBC economic pillar to get matching grants for small businesses from the federal government (SBIR and STTR) and to expand the ability of the state treasurer to invest in small businesses and local banks. What it really comes down to is that Didech is willing to throw the punches necessary to win an election, while the unnamed legislator (who doesn’t even have the courage to stand publicly behind their words), apparently thinks an election is simply standing in a defensive crouch. That person deserves to lose with an attitude like that. - MisterJayEm - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:37 pm: “Democrats like Didech don’t think she deserves to know that her underage daughter is in need of an abortion.” The law doesn’t make it illegal for for her daughter to tell her parents, therefore the issue is whether her daughter — not Democrats like Didech — thinks she should know. “In DuPage Trump will be an afterthought…” That presumes that Trump doesn’t very publicly and flamboyantly decide to run again. Something that no one can safely presume. – MrJM - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:37 pm: Whole lot of people out there waiting for the student loan debt to be addressed, something that was specifically promised. - OneMan - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:37 pm: Seems like a bold statement with new districts, there are votes there that some folks are going to get hit on, the $5 question is if it will be effective. IMHO I think the crime stuff, while overall good law, is going to be used effectively on someone. - Responsa - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:39 pm: Rep. Didech is the Dem version of Adam Kinzinger: young, ambitious, loves publicity, and often shows he doesn’t fully have a grasp on the people (both D. and R.) in the suburban district he was elected to represent. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:41 pm: ===The result of this will be to make everything the state buys, more expensive.=== I dunno.., saying “buying white is cheaper” seems to play into that racism thingy pretty good. - Nuke The Whales - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:43 pm: ==Whole lot of people out there waiting for the student loan debt to be addressed, something that was specifically promised.== Joe Biden has forgiven billions in debt, paused interest and in fact the whole gripe with Biden was that he wouldn’t promise to magic wand away student debt. - JS Mill - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:47 pm: Actually, not having to accept the lowest bid could make things cheaper. If you ever had to run a public project following lowest responsive bidder (the real term) you would know what I am talking about. That old process usually meant that you paid for the problems created by on the cheap bidders. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:47 pm: ===We will lose members if the national dynamics are insurmountable and if people don’t work their own districts.=== I was working on a House campaign in 1994. I remember exactly what an insurmountable national dynamic looks and feels like. That year was so bad for Democrats that even incumbents who worked their districts extremely hard lost their seats. I agree 100% with this assessment and I think we’re going to see some strong political headwinds next year. Time will tell if it becomes the tsunami that 1994 was, but it’s not going to be easy for incumbents Democrats next year. Get to work now if you want to keep your seat. Tuesday was a wake up call in a lot of ways. - Pundent - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:53 pm: I think that Didech is more or less correct. For Illinois Democrats the real issue will likely be if they don’t show up on election day. Because despite what Democrats may feel about the issues he’s called out, the Republican alternatives, to those Democratic voters, are likely far worse. PNA and the Black Caucus pillars likely won’t keep Democrats at home, apathy will. Pretty much like every mid-term election depending on who’s in the White House. - Etown - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:55 pm: Its interesting relative to suburban voters that Dems have done absolutely nothing about property taxes during JB years. Perhaps the level of passion on property taxes for suburban voters isn’t quite there vs mask mandates in schools or defunding the police - The Dewg - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:58 pm: Voted disagree, because the repeal of PNA is part of the national dynamic of parents being told that they have no voice in their child’s health care, what they are being taught at school, etc. I can hear the ad now, a woman’s concerned voice, “representative so and so doesn’t think you need to know when your 14 year old daughter is having an invasive medical procedure “ - Pundent - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:00 pm: =In DuPage Trump will be an afterthought..= Not until the party decides to move on from Trump and/or Trump decides to move on from the party. He seems pretty interested in making his presence known in 2022. And the party still doesn’t think it can win without him. That doesn’t mean that Democrats can reverse the mid-year headwind trend, but we’ve never seen a losing President retain this kind of control over a party and it’s agenda. - Interim Retiree - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:03 pm: I agree w/OW, Ron Burgundy & especially JS Mill. While I know some people say something then later change their minds, both my 96 year old father (voted mostly Republican his whole life) & my 33 year old son have vowed to never vote for another Republican again. Betting on my dad to keep his vow, lol. - vern - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:03 pm: Doesn’t seem like that controversial of a take. The further down the ballot you are, the more you’re at the mercy of the folks above you. State legislators have gotta stay humble. Just because they read about themselves here, or see their birthday at the bottom of a Politico newsletter, doesn’t mean the average voter is glued to that stuff. There’s no shame in acknowledging that the President of the United States gets more news coverage than you, and internalizing that fact is important for seeing the world how it is. - moving forward - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:04 pm: I disagree with Didech. I like him, but i believe that voters will swing the pendulum back the other way. in terms of the pillar crime bill, it passed with great fanfare (for some) yet crime is getting worse. that will be difficult to square in a campaign where republicans will make public safety issue number one. i would say that the democrats who can decouple their vote for the pillar and increased crime, better than terry McAuliffe could explain critical race theory have a better chance of winning. its about the message and the messenger convincing skeptical voters that progress has been made on curbing crime and holding people responsible for criminal acts. that seems like a tough sell at this point, but i would do my best to do the opposite of terry McAuliffe. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:05 pm: ===In DuPage Trump will be an afterthought=== Depends who Republicans nominate for governor. Rabine, for example, is a proud Trumpkin. We seriously don’t know how Trump will be until we see who the statewide nominees are - Da big bag wolf - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:18 pm: === my daughter ( a solid Dem voter) is worried about the crime seeping out into the suburbs from the city.=== So does your daughter read newspapers? Biden earmarked corona virus relief funding (350 bn)for cities to hire more police officers in June. The current state budget signed last summer has $80 million in funding for mental health and addiction. In November this year Pritzker signed an executive order committing $250 million (federal and state funds)to the Reimagine Public Safety plan. - Telly - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:20 pm: I agree with him on PNA. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, abortion related issues will probably be a net plus for Dems. but I disagree with him about crime related issues. The Nassau County district attorney‘s race in New York might be telling. A Dem State senator and former US attorney who voted for bond reform in the NY legislature was upset by a Republican. His vote on bail reform and other criminal justice bills wer the big issues. Lots of similarities between Nassau and DuPage counties. - Former Candidate on the Ballot - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:22 pm: I voted disagree, but my true answer is - it depends. I believe in the suburbs you are going to see a 3 point swing from Dem to Rep in 22. A good ground game can get you 2, a great ground game can get you 3+. If you are a Dem incumbent in the suburbs and do nothing at the door with a +7 advantage due to the map, you are probably ok. Less than that, ???? - AnonymousFool - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:26 pm: Voted agree, but with one caveat: Don’t say stupid [banned word] in public, like McAulliff did in VA. - Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:27 pm: ==Whole lot of people out there waiting for the student loan debt to be addressed, something that was specifically promised. == Promised…by who? Joe Biden explicitly said he *Wasn’t* going to forgive everyone’s student debt. - One Opinion - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:29 pm: Probably correct b/c those whose districts feel differently — and who needed to be off the bill — already voted “no.” Hoffman can survive b/c he is locally strong enough, even if his district polls differently. - Arsenal - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:33 pm: I voted Disagree because elections are decided on a lot of factors. Most Dems who lose will do so for many reasons, and PNA or the pillars might be one of them. But now I’m kind of changing my mind, if only because, looking at those maps, it’s possible no incumbent even loses, lol. Couple other things tho. Why is PNA becoming a centerpiece of this? Something like only 8% of VA voters considered it a top issue, and the NoVA suburbs actually stuck with MacAuliffe better than anywhere else. The idea that excessive dedication to reproductive rights does not seem supported by data. Similar story for the “Pillars”. How many voters even know what the Four Pillars are? - ;) - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:37 pm: Disagree. Didech is wrong, and completely out of touch with reality. As a democrat and someone who works dem campaigns, I can only base my opinion on what I am hearing and seeing all around me, and it ain’t good for the dems. Didech probably should talk less and start listening more..:that way people like me don’t have to get those frantic last minute calls for volunteers to come canvass and bail him or any of his colleagues out. Just a thought. - jimbo - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 4:53 pm: ~~Its interesting relative to suburban voters that Dems have done absolutely nothing about property taxes during JB years~~ 77% of my property tax is my school district. What do you suggest that the Dems do about that? I can promise you that the homeowners in my neck of the woods are a)happy with their schools and b)would fight Springfield if they were to try and hamstring the local school budget - Excitable Boy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 5:07 pm: Absolutely right. They’ll lose if the national Dems can’t get anything meaningful done, not because the IL Democrats did. - Walker - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 5:17 pm: Early for such a judgment. Too many potential factors which could impact outcomes to rank just now. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 5:19 pm: Agree on PNA appeal but not on the unqualified rest. The GOP may have demagogued critical race theory, but Dems need to back off even a whiff of “White Fragility” (not because it’s necessarily wrong, but it turns off droves of white swing voters). - Oldtimer - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 5:40 pm: Pretty bold of the Rep to claim to know the pulse of all 73 House Dem districts, particularly in a redistricting election year. - Etown - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 6:32 pm: Not sure where you live Jimbo but good for you if homeowners in your neck of woods are happy with their public schools but not sure you represent the majority in Illinois - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 6:42 pm: === but not sure you represent the majority in Illinois=== Are you speaking for the majority of Illinois? To the property tax aspect, if you choose to live where you do, choose schooling for children as some may do, the reality is property taxes as of this typing are a local issue as are the choices of how you school sees revenue or where you live, so the beef about it a state issue, unless there’s 71/36 and a governor willing to change things to *school funding*, the misunderstanding of how property taxes work will continue to with those already likely with beefs about things that also confuse them too. - daltown38 - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 6:45 pm: Voted agree, because it won’t be one single issue that will hurt the Dems. However, a combination of things spell trouble for Democrats right now. As for Illinois, if the people who came out to vote against the tax amendment mobilize and vote against Gov. Pritzker in the governor’s race, he will be defeated - unless Bailey is the Republican nominee. - Big Tom - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:56 pm: A few more covid restrictions, some more social justice reform and gas going up a few more dimes and the mid terms will be all Republicans. - High prices - Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:38 pm: Life is too expensive. Direct result of Dem energy policy. Gas and home heating will leave average families with very tough decisions to make this winter. Meanwhile our billionaire Governor is taking a private jet to a climate conference where the world’s largest producers of carbon pollution don’t even show up. They are laughing at us. All so JB can get the millennial vote. I assure you JB Pritzker does not care what a gallon of gas costs and he definitely doesn’t care how it impacts your family. - JS Mill - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 8:00 am: @High Prices- So when gas was over $4 per gallon who was to blame then? That was during the Bush years. When gas was $3.60 who was to blame then? That was during the trump years. Are you inferring that we control what Russia and China decide to do? If that is the case, you have a very naive understanding of how the world works. As for how the governor got to the meeting, how much time would you like him top waste? This is a place for grown ups. - Da big bad wolf - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 8:05 am: ===Direct result of Dem energy policy.=== Both oil and natural gas gas are increasing worldwide. The US population is 4% of the world. Yet somehow one political party of that 4% caused that? How? And what can Pritzker do about the worldwide increases? - Perrid - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 8:11 am: I more agree than disagree, but think this may be a little simplistic. In general most of the people who are going to be angry about the PNA repeal or most of the “pillars” were already lost to Democrats. It’s not impossible that it’s the straw that breaks the camel’s back, so to speak, for some independents but I doubt it. Most voters are low information. So yeah, if they’re angry or even just disillusioned with the national party, which they usually hear more about, local Democrats will suffer. And voters, for reasons that are inexplicable to me, quite often want to “punish” the party “in power” for things that are less than ideal in their life. This makes no sense, and is usually based on emotion and not any kind of policy, which drives me mad, but it’s how people think. - Lord of the Fries - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 8:54 am: Uhmm… theyre going to lose voters for both reasons….. - Downstate Dem - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 9:18 am: I agree because it happened to me. Whether or not I was elected went by the national swing of things. Most people did not pay attention to how I voted on the bills. - Chicagonk - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 10:40 am: Disagree on both. There are always multiple factors in election losses. - SpiDem - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 2:55 pm: Disagree. Elections are never as simple as a single vote, but Illinois Democrats have just spent the last several months passing a huge bailout for a business that admitted to a huge bribery scheme, picking fights over COVID and abortion. Every one of those votes don’t really touch on the concerns of average folks. Hopefully the ribbon cuttings from capital bill dollars and a rebounding economy as COVID wanes will help. But if they don’t, they have provided the opposition plenty of room for some brutal messaging waiting them as out of touch.. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.