37 Comments - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:05 pm: At first blush I’d say being able to say you stand for something versus admitting you stand for nothing divides arguments at any voter’s door. - The Opinions Bureau - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:06 pm: I’m with Rep. Didech. Know the district, do the work. The Republicans have not shown much, if any, ability to attract quality candidates that match suburban districts. The ones they do get spend a lot more time on Facebook than they do on doors. - Perrid - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:08 pm: Everything Batinick said is from the perspective of a pretty conservative person. If some of your fundamental beliefs are that criminals are out to get you and they should all be locked up for life, odds are you won’t vote for a Democrat. If the right to know when your daughter gets an abortion (note this isn’t his phrasing, lol) is so important you want to change leadership over it, you probably weren’t going to vote for a Democrat. Like I said yesterday, I really do think the national “consensus” is going to play a bigger role than local matters. That’s not an absolute rule, but most Democrats like most of the “controversial” stuff our politicians are doing. Batinick is high on his own supply, he believes his own spiel, but that’s not necessarily reality - vern - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:11 pm: I think Batinick’s story re: Hultgren undermines any disagreement here. Hultgren was somewhat famously a Rep who didn’t work his district very well, and he got swept away in a bad national cycle. Outperforming him by 13 points is about as clear a signal as possible that national cycles are the foundation and can be overcome with hard work. If Batinick thinks Springfield voting records matter more than national politics or individual candidate effort, what’s his theory about why Republicans got wiped out in the collar counties during the Trump presidency? Does he really think that those voters were thinking about the Rauner budget fights in 2018? To put a finer point on it, which votes would’ve saved David Olsen from himself? - JS Mill - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:11 pm: I voted lean Didech, but Batnick makes some valid points. The old adage that all politics is local” still rings true. An active candidate or incumbent that works their district and makes sure the voters know them is usually going to be ok. If they are out of line with their electorate then they probably have issues no matter how hard they work. The way districts are dran seems to minimize that I except for swing districts. Still lean Didech. - Rep. Didech - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:13 pm: I don’t think there’s much disagreement between me and Mark on this. He won in a catastrophic year for Republicans by working his ass off. That was the point I was making originally. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:16 pm: ===David Olsen=== Ball game. To that specific idea, used in yesterday’s thoughts too… “Lean Didech” Also, what separated Batinick from others was working hard in the district, I didn’t expect Batinick to dismiss his own hard work. - Fav Human - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:17 pm: Hultgren didn’t work the district at all. The Invisible rep. Carjackings are happening in the suburbs. Cook County Suburbs. In Kane the States Atty is doing what Foxx says she is doing the right way. The Kane Co sheriff specifically stated he didn’t want his deputies vulnerable to Foxx. - Pot calling kettle - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:19 pm: ==Know the district, do the work.== That’s the key. When the voters know their rep and feel connected and trust them to do the right thing, specific votes are less important. A full-on well funded attack can overcome (or give a scare), but neither party can mount that kind of attack in more than a handful of districts. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:19 pm: I think it’s a hybrid answer, but if you do the David Olsen campaign strategy you are asking to lose your seat no matter how safe it is. - Hannibal Lecter - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:22 pm: I think it is naive to think that every Democrat will survive a Republican wave year, even with newly drawn districts. I think we will see more casualties at the federal level than we will at the state and local level. I do think that there will be some losses at the state level, but not enough to change the landscape here at all. - Hannibal Lecter - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:36 pm: Remember the four pillars only received 60 votes. A lot of Democratic “No” votes on that legislation. Some of those 60 could be vulnerable though. It will be interesting to watch. - OneMan - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:36 pm: I voted Batinick on this, I think he has a point about the perception of crime, and it’s going to be an issue in some suburban districts (likely more than one). That is going to end up being a problem for someone. - Hannibal Lecter - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:36 pm: I meant in the House. Didn’t look at the Senate roll call. - A Jack - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:54 pm: I voted Batinick. I believe Democrats are seen as pushing too far to the left too fast. Voters are not happy with the direction the country is headed and Democrats own that. I generally vote Democrat in contested races, but I will be reconsidering that vote in the next election if Democrats stay on their current path. - Middle Ground - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 12:59 pm: To put a finer point on it, which votes would’ve saved David Olsen from himself? Labor votes. Olsen fully backed the Rauner right to work agenda, that is not reflective of his district. Labor support would have saved him in 2018, Rauner could not. - Roman - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:00 pm: I can see the crime issue being pretty salient —and there’s no replacement for a legislator working his or her district hard. But at the end of the day, 2022 will be about what kind of shape the national economy is in. 1994 and 2010 were awful midterms for the Dems because the economy was mired in a very sluggish recovery. Biden got very good economic and Covid related news today. If the economy is good and the pandemic is over, Dem losses will be minimal. But if that doesn’t happen, it will be a wipe out. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:02 pm: - Middle Ground - How many precincts did Olsen walk? - Jibba - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:02 pm: Voted lean Didech, but Rep. Batinick has a point. But he had a clunker, which was “…why the heck would a suburban moderate appreciate giving the incarcerated the right to vote”. Maybe because they are people and citizens? Just a thought. - Benjamin - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:06 pm: Lean Didech. Nowadays, the most important thing to the voting public for state legislative candidates is the little R or D next to their name, and that’s heavily influenced by the national party dynamics. But it’s a headwind (or tailwind), not destiny. You can sometimes work your tail off, campaign in person, have great rebuttals to critics’ attacks, raise a lot of money, get a little lucky with a lazy opponent, and get elected in an otherwise hostile district. But that’s not the most likely outcome. - Shield - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:10 pm: Didech and Batinick actually agree. You gotta be present and work the district. Both are also willing to throw their punches. Take it federally for a minute. CNN has a story on Underwood and a Georgia US Rep disagreeing on the best strategy to combat the Fox-manufactured CRT White Panic. Underwood is advocating going on the attack. That doesn’t mean repeating an attack on you, but it means going on offense and not sitting around taking punches. That’s what both Didech and Batinick are saying. The only thing Batinick is adding is that sometimes no matter how hard and good work, the national environment is too much. That’s true. But there’s a whole year between now and next November. In 1998, the Republicans should have cruised to gains, but the hypocrites got obsessed with Bill Clinton’s sex life, something only the wingnuts cared about. In 2002, there was one war underway, major preparations for a second and this was all on the heels of a major terrorist attack. Ended up being a good year for the GOP, because they got in lock step behind a then-popular president. Anything can happen. - Arsenal - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:15 pm: The both get a lot wrong. But if I have to choose, I go with Didech because Batinick talks about Dems riding a wave for three cycles. There were no blue waves in ‘16 or ‘20. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:20 pm: Ignoring the lack of popularity of Pat Quinn and that impact on the voter turn out would be like ignoring the lack of popularity of the Illinois GOP and their repetitive failure to describe, suggest, or propose policy that is in line with reality. In terms of how things were going when he got elected and how things were going when he left office, Bruce Rauner was the worst governor of Illinois in the last 70 years. Even the criminals who were indicted did a better job managing the state and there was some indication that they cared about what happened to other people at least some of the time. - Red Ranger - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:26 pm: Lean Batinick. I think a wave is coming as I think nationally the Dems will take zero learnings from Tuesday. No matter how much the districts are gerrymandered and how much more money and organization the Dems have in IL, the wave will impact IL at some level; maybe enough to lift the House GOP out of super-minority status. It could make the AG race interesting, especially if a credible GOP candidate emerges and pounds Kwame on the crime issue (even though he has nothing to do with it, voters don’t do nuance). Maybe also Frerichs race given his well documented gaff and a wave election? Again, both of those races assume a credible GOP candidate which right now doesn’t appear to be on the horizon. - Amalia - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:27 pm: Lean D but there is work to do for Democrats. stop even thinking that the AOCs, Bernies, and defund the police advocates are anything of value. and the response to “stop teaching CRT in schools” is not “don’t you like history?” it is they are not teaching CRT in your kid’s high school or grammar school. they aren’t. - Inverted Pyramid - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:32 pm: “I’m whatever Gotham needs me to be.” –Batman ‘The Dark Knight’ - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:38 pm: ==“…why the heck would a suburban moderate appreciate giving the incarcerated the right to vote”. Maybe because they are people and citizens? Just a thought.== Yeah that’s not really how moderates go about making voting decisions. They’re far more likely to worry about high gas prices than they are about convicts being given voting rights. Unless trump somehow gets back in office, dems aren’t going to dominate the suburbs while pushing lefty social issues. They’ll only do it by appearing (comparably) sane and governing effectively. Dems need more kitchen table, less university faculty lounge. - CubsFan16 - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:45 pm: Let’s combine two ideas into one: 1. Didech is right that hard work can overcome “tough” votes. 2. Batnick is right that “tough” votes in the wrong election cycle can be a dagger in a 1-2 point race. Door to door can fix A LOT, but if people genuinely don’t want what you are selling, it’s going to be tough. TDLR - Door knocking can solve most of these problems, but if folks at the door in a given cycle diametrically opposed to what you are selling, it may not be enough to save you. - Arsenal - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 1:49 pm: I think Lester Holt’s Mustache is right. While some Lefty stuff (like “Defund the Police”) is viscerally unpopular, not all of it is. But there’s a danger in focusing on it rather than “kitchen table issues”. Now, an advantage IL Dems have is that they can talk about kitchen table issues- $15 minimum wage, new capital projects, saving the nuclear plants, electric vehicles. But, well, we’ll see if they do that. - Big Jer - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 2:02 pm: I voted Lean Batinick even though I would consider myself a mix of mostly left politics with some conservative beliefs. I agree that working your own districts is important and agree with Didech that they will lose members if the national dynamics are insurmountable but the Republicans are appealing to many cultural/sociological issues that get people riled up no matter your district. But the fact that soo many people get their news from National news outlets i.e. Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, etc. along with Facebook etc. makes cultural issues important and affect people more emotionally than “working your district”. IMO the Dems problem is that to counter many of the issues Republicans are tapping into they need to come up with universal material benefits that help the working class and have repeatedly polled well and they have repeatedly failed to do so. Unfortunately both parties are tapping into cultural issues that excite their base but really do not help people with healthcare costs, affordable housing, etc. I hope this made sense as I am recovering from surgery and just woke up from a nap. - ;) - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 2:09 pm: Batnick. He’s simply reflecting the exact conversation being had at every dinner table across this state. - Last Bull Moose - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 3:07 pm: Lean Didech. Republicans have to climb out of some deep holes There is a stench from Rauner and Trump. The collar counties are vaccinated and largely masked. The magic beans approach to the pension debt does not work. A Republican would have to climb out of those holes and then present credible solutions to the kitchen table problems. I expect to see few of those candidates. - Galway Bay - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 3:22 pm: Voted Batnick sorry - TheInvisibleMan - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 3:29 pm: The crime angle is an interesting one locally. Some of the zip codes in batinicks district saw huge increases in rape. When this is brought up to the police chief he will turn red telling you it is because the FBI changed the rules on reporting to use the address of the offender and not where the crime happened. And that crime has actually gone down in his area of the suburbs. The police chief has an interest in showing crime has declined during his term, while the Republicans have an interest in scaring people with claims of increasing crime. Didn’t expect to see batinick throwing his local police chief under the bus like that, but the crime talking point seems to have an override on reality no matter how obviously wrong it is. - Frank talks - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 3:51 pm: Can’t beat somebody with nobody. GOP coming out of woodwork to run will make major mistakes in they feel all will win based on the truck driver in NJ. A lot more difficult than that. Working your districts has never been more important for Dems. Plus fundraising. Watching Dems scramble to do everything Madigan used to do for them will be fun. Who will sink and who will swim? - Dr. Love - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 4:10 pm: Voted Batanick. It’s going to be a huge wave year for GOP. If GOP can field candidates in every Dem held district they will win some just based on the wave without regard to quality of candidates or issues. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 4:15 pm: I will love to look back a year from now to this touchstone. After candidates become nominees, the statewide skates are finalized, another 365 days pass… how big of a Red Wave will invade Illinois? Will abortion be as big as it seems to be slated to be? Economy? Covid? Just popularity of Biden… will Trump be visible… The only real thing I know is midterms mean misery for the party controlling the White House. New maps, new candidates, new side stories… how *fun* (tongue in cheek) will it be to see the politics, the fascinating part that is the “same” versus “a whole new ball game” It’ll be interesting to revisit this post. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.