* Last year’s General Funds Walk Down produced by GOMB projected the Fiscal Year 2021 deficit at $3.9 billion with a payment backlog of $10.16 billion. That backlog was projected to grow to $33.16 billion by Fiscal Year 2026, with deficits between $4.2 billion and $4.8 billion every single fiscal year.

This year’s GOMB walk down is a whole lot different. GOMB is projecting a surplus in FY 2022 of $418 million, with deficits of $406, $820, $1,061, $903 and $598 million in the coming fiscal years.

That still ain’t great, but it’s a world away from where the state was. That is, of course, if those projections hold up. Last year’s projections were obviously way off.

* Press release…

The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) released the annual Economic and Fiscal Policy Report showing Illinois has made significant improvement in its structural deficit under Governor Pritzker’s leadership. As the state recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, this progress has been fueled by the Governor and the General Assembly passing and implementing balanced budgets, promoting economic development to create jobs and boost economic activity, and closing corporate tax loopholes.

GOMB is now projecting significantly smaller deficits than estimated previously in the general funds budget for fiscal years 2023 through 2027. The forecasted fiscal year 2023 shortfall was reduced from $2.9 billion, as estimated in 2019, to $406 million, and the 2024 shortfall was reduced from $3.2 billion, as estimated in 2019, to a deficit of $820 million.

“With our partners in the General Assembly we’ve made tremendous progress in putting Illinois on the right fiscal path, supporting small businesses, and creating good jobs in every part of our state,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “I am committed to building on this significant progress while tackling our remaining fiscal challenges. Together, we can build long term fiscal stability for Illinois while ensuring economic opportunity in all of our communities.”

The future years’ budget outlook also benefits from strong pension fund investment returns in fiscal year 2021, substantial early debt retirement in 2021 and interest cost savings from paying down the State’s unpaid bill backlog.

The Governor intends to pursue several actions to continue Illinois’ strong path forward, including directing funds to further reduce the state’s existing payables, reserving additional funds for fiscal emergencies or economic downturns, and continuing the management controls put in place at the beginning of the Pritzker Administration to continue to responsibly manage the limited resources of state government. With the Governor’s recommended actions, the state’s unpaid bills have been significantly tamed, with the vast majority of bills now paid within 30 days. The outstanding invoices, most of which are less than 30 days old, are estimated to fall below $2.75 billion by the end of fiscal year 2022, down from the $9.2 billion of outstanding bills and cashflow borrowings prior to taking office. This would be a nearly $6.5 billion - or 70 percent reduction - while replenishing the Budget Stabilization Fund that was drained during the previous administration.

Illinois’ significant improvement to its fiscal outlook was heralded last summer by the state’s credit rating agencies, with an upgrade to its general obligation bond credit rating granted by Moody’s Investor Services and S&P Global Ratings in June and July 2021.

GOMB is required to annually submit an Economic and Fiscal Policy Report to the General Assembly outlining the long-term economic and fiscal policy objectives of the state, along with the economic and fiscal policy intentions for the upcoming fiscal year and for the subsequent four fiscal years.