184 Comments - Responsa - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:04 am: Waiting for a news headlining entry rather than coasting in to the race as a relatively unknown pol within the state seems to make sense. Let’s see what happens next. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:06 am: Just read his profile on Aurora’s website. With Griffin’s money, Biden’s numbers, and people fed up with Covid restrictions and blaming it on the Governor (likely not fair, but Governor’s Own as one of our commenters like to put it), I could see Irvin being very competitive. Whether that’s enough to win (let alone win the primary), I’m not sure, but I know I would much rather see Darren Bailey or Kirk Dillard if I’m the Governor. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:10 am: Unless it’s a quarter of a billion, it’s not a real attempt. As one who looked at Irvin’s first forays in politics with real skepticism, what Irvin has done as mayor of Aurora is something to base a run on and is well liked in the region, a natural progression from mayor of the second largest city in Illinois seems “natural”. If Irvin gets a quarter of a billion… it’d be a real race. - Felix - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:11 am: Opposition research will be this guy’s worst enemy.. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:12 am: === Covid restrictions and blaming it on the Governor=== Numbers towards covid seem to be in the Governor’s favor and the governor is above water, even with frames as “bottom 1/3 in polling of current governors”, Pritzker sits at 51% It could be a real race, but it ain’t Quinn or Rauner vulnerability, so far. - Frumpy White Guy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:13 am: 300 million is a lot of money. Will JB be outspent in his re-election bid? - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:13 am: Whether it’s Irvin or any other candidate the challenge remains the same - draw suburban voters while keeping the base energized. Still seems to be a tall order too me. But who knows. I’ve got to think that a Dr. Ezike day doesn’t go over well with his audience. She’s the Illinois Dr. Fauci and it goes without saying that a great number of GOP supporters aren’t fans of either doc. - Henry - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:13 am: Oh good, the team that brought us Bruce Rauner have found another pot of gold to siphon from. God help us. - BTO2 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:19 am: Some people are fed up with restrictions, some of us are fine with wearing a mask and getting our shots. Should prove interesting to see what folks running for office would do differently. I know shrugging your shoulders and it goes away is not the answer. The mayor is a very interesting choice, if he can separate himself in the primary. - Moe Berg - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:19 am: If voters prefer Griffin’s Ayn Rand Libertarian Dystopia Rauner Reboot they deserve everything that will surely follow. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:20 am: === Numbers towards covid seem to be in the Governor’s favor and the governor is above water, even with frames as “bottom 1/3 in polling of current governors”, Pritzker sits at 51%=== I don’t disagree, but there could be a block of voters that are anti Covid restrictions that wouldn’t normally vote, but will vote to try to get Pritzker out of office. $300 million can rile a lot of people up. If Rauner can win in this state with his background, Irvin has a real shot. - OneMan - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:22 am: === Covid restrictions and blaming it on the Governor=== Aurora came down fairly hard with COVID restrictions fairly early (the mayor also had a decent case of early COVID). - Jocko - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:22 am: ==Ken Griffin has decided on IL GOP candidate to contribute $300M== This should be exhibit A of why we need a millionaires tax. Is anyone naive enough to think that, if elected, there wouldn’t be strings attached to that kind of dough? - CubsFan16 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:23 am: He has my vote. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:25 am: My favorite comment is Mo Berg’s. With nothing bad to say about the actual person (Irvin), they’re already resigned to JB’s inevitable loss and are lashing out lol. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:26 am: ==Will JB be outspent in his re-election bid? == No. JB easily has access to $300M, too. ==I’ve got to think that a Dr. Ezike day doesn’t go over well with his audience. She’s the Illinois Dr. Fauci and it goes without saying that a great number of GOP supporters aren’t fans of either doc. == I bet Ezike is *far* less known than Fauci, and thus much less of a lightning rod. But more broadly, it is true that if he took COVID seriously, he’ll be ceding a lot of energy to Bailey. ==If Rauner can win in this state with his background, Irvin has a real shot. == Big difference is that Pat Quinn was really disliked, even by most of his own party. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:26 am: === I don’t disagree, but=== Really no “but”… the same in-law uncles that are against any covid things are already not voting for Pritzker. For that growing the group to work would mean there’s a real percentage of folks that do NOT support the Governor’s covid response and ARE voting for Pritzker. Dunno about that. ===If Rauner can win in this state with his background=== Rauner was a phony who flooded the race with cash to make his empty vessel of a costume wearing fool seem possible. Pritzker likely won’t be outspent - So_Ill - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:26 am: There is no way this guy can win a GOP primary in 2021. - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:27 am: =If Rauner can win in this state with his background, Irvin has a real shot.= Rauner, and the influence of Ken Griffin’s money, were largely unknown in 2014. Not discounting Irvin’s changes but being Bruce Rauner 2.0 is probably not a good thing if that’s how he’s labeled. But the existential crisis and need for purity in the GOP continues to favor Bailey. I’m not sure how you run against what the base is in favor of without being labeled as a Democrat operative. And if the thought is that Irvin is somehow a return to the more sensible moderate approach of the ILGOP of the past, that doesn’t seem to be where the party is at. Owning the libs rules the day even if it doesn’t win elections. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:29 am: ==With nothing bad to say about the actual person (Irvin)== Is that true? If a big part of Irvin’s campaign is going to be Griffin paying all the bills, then that kind of *is* a thing about the person. Maybe we can quibble over whether or not it’s a bad thing, but if you disagree with Griffin’s politics (or even just don’t like wealth in politics), it’s reasonable to conclude that it’s a bad thing. - Anchors Away - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:30 am: Caveat up front - there is real money in the governors race and no matter who ends up on the ballot for the GOP - a real race will be run. That said - your announcement is “Ken Griffin paid me $300 million” to run for Governor? The guy who brought the state Bruce Rauner paid me - boat load of cash to get in a race to validate his personal vendetta. Money is important in a race. But it’s not everything. And my guess is JB will match Griffin dollar for dollar and make the campaign just as much about Griffin’s negatives as Irvin’s. And Ken has never struck me as a guy who can take criticism. If I were Irvin - I would think long and hard if this is how I want to launch what could be a promising state career. And I’d make sure I have that oppo book done. Because before you even get to try at Pritzker - you are going to have a well established primary field coming to take your head. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:31 am: ===being Bruce Rauner 2.0 is probably not a good thing if that’s how he’s labeled.=== I don’t know for sure, but I don’t think Rauner was raised by a single mother in public housing and served in the army. Labeling him as Rauner 2.0 isn’t going to work. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:33 am: === they’re already resigned to JB’s inevitable loss and are lashing out=== Narrator: Petitions aren’t even filed. The question first is if Irvin can get through a primary by allowing Rabine/Bailey/Schimpf to split enough together the Trumpkin vote … and then take down the valor stealing Sullivan… so Irvin can win with ~41%… … then consolidate all that Trumpkin-ness so that the base wants to come out to vote. One race at a time. Primary. Griffin would be better suited to muddy up the primary to help Irvin (prop up Rabine/Schimpf, scuttle Sullivan) and then press forward. “inevitable loss”… I mean, that’s classic, lol - Lincoln Lad - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:34 am: Is there anyone less in touch with the common man than Ken Griffin? I’ll honestly start from a position of distrust with any candidate he chooses to back. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:35 am: ===Rauner was raised by a single mother in public housing and served in the army. Labeling him as Rauner 2.0 isn’t going to work.=== Rauner’s immigrant grandparent is in that mix… who was born in America, but… - Dave Fako / Fako Research & Strategies - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:37 am: My firm polled in Aurora numerous times as the late Mayor Tom Weisner’s pollster starting in 2005 and up until the more recent elections in the City + many state legislative and judicial campaigns overlapping the City dating back to 2002 until the present day. We have polled on Irvin in every race he has run, won or lost, in that time frame. He is an interesting candidate and although he may have challenges running statewide in a GOP Primary for various factors, I would not underestimate him. He had an interesting and unique appeal in Aurora….TBD is he can replicate that beyond the borders of Illinois’ 2nd largest City. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:38 am: ===Rauner’s immigrant grandparent is in that mix… who was born in America, but…=== I forgot about that. OW, you actually got me to laugh for once. - NIU Grad - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:38 am: With the current field of mediocre candidates, Irvin can make a splash with money and staff behind him. I’d be curious if many of the Republican “regular” staff have already picked a horse. Pritzker’s team should start that oppo research yesterday… - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:38 am: It’s more than a little weird to not announce (and have to roll out a running mate!) with less than two weeks before petitions start. Granted, you don’t have to start passing petitions on 1/13, but…all the pros will. - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:39 am: =Labeling him as Rauner 2.0 isn’t going to work.= You think a guy that’s bankrolled by Ken Griffin will be able to avoid these comparisons? Being raised by a single mother in public housing and serving in the army isn’t going to resonate with Bailey supporters. And if Irvin is fortunate to survive a primary he not only has to keep Bailey supporters engaged but expand his message to moderates and independents. Talk about threading a needle. - Annonin' - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:40 am: Can Griffie stooge win? Will Griffie give the $$ to the Durkie talent team like they did in Kilbride? Is Jim Nowlan lurking? So many questions. The art world must be in tears - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:42 am: Aresenal - it was more or less a joke about Mo Berg’s hyperbolic and dejected comment. But more generally, if the best hit the other side has is one that isn’t actually about the person themselves, it’s already a few steps down the ladder of effectiveness. Couple that with that fact that he will outspend his opponents at least 5 to 1 in the primary and match JB in the general, then I think Team Irvin would be thrilled if that’s the best they have. - Long Time Independent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:42 am: Illinois Review mentions his Democratic voting background and touches on other issues that hard core Republicans won’t look past. Then after those get some attention the oppo book on him comes out. - Chicago Blue - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:44 am: How much of that $300 million will have to be spent getting him through the primaries? Honest question. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:44 am: What do the other GOP gubernatorial campaigns say about this, particularly Bailey? Should be interesting statements. Pritzker maybe ought to do what the Obama campaign did to Romney, get a jump on messaging and tie any candidate to Griffin’s record of trashing the state under Rauner. Go after Griffin too, since he did so much damage. There’s so much to attack, from ripping apart the social safety net, starving violence prevention programs, waging war on unions, state budget hostage, etc. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:45 am: ==If I were Irvin - I would think long and hard if this is how I want to launch what could be a promising state career.== Presumably, that’s why he’s waiting until after the holidays, to figure out how to say “I’m actually running for a race I passed on” without mentioning Griffin’s money or Biden’s (actually maybe improving) poll numbers. But, y’know, all these leaks won’t help him pull that off. - Mr. Illinois - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:47 am: Self inflicted wound by Dems, who overwhelmingly backed Irvin for mayor (even party leaders). They have elevated him to the point where he will give Pritzker a run for his money. On top of that, the national party’s reliance on “Republicans are racists” as a central part of their narrative means anytime the GOP nominates a qualified person of color, the Dems are at a huge disadvantage; years of social media and cable news messaging will appear (to some voters) provably untrue. (For the record, I understand that racism goes much deeper than who you vote for, and that racism is a huge problem! I just think the Democrats cynically exploit identity politics at their own peril.) - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:47 am: === Couple that with that fact that he will outspend his opponents at least 5 to 1 in the primary=== The ignoring of Trumpkin-ness here is a big blind spot. ===I think Team Irvin would be thrilled if that’s the best they have.=== It’s so early to oppo Irvin might not realize who he is at this point. Something to consider. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:48 am: ==if the best hit the other side has is== Big “If”, tho. I wouldn’t presume that one anonymous internet commenter represents anything about a particular campaign’s messaging apparatus. - FIREDup! - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:49 am: Anyone here receive this alleged poll?? - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:50 am: ===If I were Irvin - I would think long and hard if this is how I want to launch what could be a promising state career.=== SoS is out there, Alexi is vulnerable with Griffin money. Of course Frerichs stands tall to taxing retirement income and is vulnerable with the right amount of cash and Irvin’s background, reminding seniors how dangerous Frerichs is and a want to discuss taxing retirement income… Irvin could give Frerichs a run - City Zen - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:50 am: Ken, don’t forget to set some money aside to fight the constitutional amendment on the ballot. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:51 am: ==On top of that, the national party’s reliance on “Republicans are racists” as a central part of their narrative means anytime the GOP nominates a qualified person of color the Dems are at a huge disadvantage== That seems unproven at best. - fs - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:51 am: == What do the other GOP gubernatorial campaigns say about this, particularly Bailey? Should be interesting statements.== They’re presumably already digging out their whistles. Mayor of the State’s second largest city (a city where I believe the Hispanic population is the plurality), Army veteran, suburban roots. He’s definitely a bigger concern for Pritzker than anyone else. I’m guessing the Governor will be spending money in the primary after all. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:51 am: Some of you guys need to realize the environment here in 2022. “Irvin needs to do this, Bailey supporters won’t like this, Irvin needs to thread the needle this way..blah blah blah.” Y’all, a little known former state rep in New Jersey nearly took down the blue state’s seemingly popular Governor after getting outspent 10 to 1 just one month ago. You realize in that environment that even Bailey (who is a disaster) still gets it within high to mid single digits of Pritzker, right? Dems better hope and pray the politics of a Roe v Wade switch by the SC is a massive blow to the GOP this cycle. Otherwise it’s shaping up to be a bloodbath. - Middle Way - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:52 am: I’m gonna get a lot of flack for saying this,but the only guy who could actually WIN a Republican race for Governor is Rep. Kinzinger. I absolutely understand the challenges he would face getting out of a primary in this crazy environment, but with his communications skills and the potential for crossover votes in the general + Griffin’s $$$. It’s really the only viable chance for success. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:52 am: ==While Irvin is often considered Republican, his voting record shows he’s pulled Democrat primary ballots more than GOP ballots over the last five or six elections.== $300M can absolve a lot of sins, but that’s a big one. And presumably, Irvin doesn’t want to really drain the kitty for the primary. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:53 am: He’s got as good a shot as the other four I suppose. But campainging in that primary south of I-70 is a waste of resources. Bailey has it locked up. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:53 am: === the national party’s reliance on “Republicans are racists” as a central part of their narrative means anytime the GOP nominates a qualified person of color, the Dems are at a huge disadvantage=== The Proud Boys and Klan members are now Democrats too? That’s a new one. Good try. Trump enabled and emboldened the racist thinkers in the GOP. We’ll see now post-Trump how the GOP decides to ostracize racism. As of this typing, Chairman Tracy welcomes racist thinkers - TwistaSista - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 9:57 am: The oppo that will now come out on Irvin & all the others will only make it even less likely any of them can defeat JB. Why KG would throw cash at let alone listen to Z & co. is a real headscratcher. As if the “brains” behind the Kirk and Rauner campaigns/administrations are something to brag about. Hardly. What a waste. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:00 am: Tick tock goes the clock. He may already be out of time to beat Bailey for the nomination. - Responsa - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:00 am: I ran out to the store and came back to read the comments on this thread. I was surprised to see that (unless I missed it) no one has mentioned his race. I don’t know, but I think a relatively successful AA mayor of a large city will appeal to and find many potential voters all across the state –and especially in the city of Chicago and environs. Is calling him a Griffie stooge really the message Dems are planning to use against this man should he choose to run? Griffen (unlike Rauner and Pritzker) is not running. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:01 am: Omg, the oppo…the vaunted oppo. As if KG and team didn’t do their due diligence when deciding to invest hundreds of millions of dollars. Get real. If there was any oppo that comes close to overshadowing a black, successful, army veteran mayor then he wouldn’t be the guy. - Cheryl44 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:01 am: “a great number of GOP supporters aren’t fans of either doc” Because they don’t want the pandemic to end? I refuse to even try to understand these people. - Captain Obvious - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:01 am: A black Republican with $300 million who was raised by a single mother in public housing. Well respected mayor who appeals to suburban Democrats. Sounds good to me. - fs - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:01 am: == Tick tock goes the clock. He may already be out of time to beat Bailey for the nomination.== The Primary is still 6 months away, not 3. - Bored Chairman - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:03 am: == Self inflicted wound by Dems, who overwhelmingly backed Irvin for mayor (even party leaders).== Incorrect. Irvin beat Chappa La Via. You know, the Democrats’ candidate. In fact, he won so impressively she didn’t even qualify for the runoff election. - Bad Goya Vitch - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:03 am: Come on, OW, tell us how you really feel. You can’t stand Frerichs, can’t stand Giannoulias. Supposedly, they can’t bear each other. In that cage match, which would you prefer to see felled by Griffin moolah? - fs - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:03 am: == As if the “brains” behind the Kirk and Rauner campaigns/administrations are something to brag about. Hardly. What a waste.== I’m not sure who will be behind his campaign, but if your flex against that group is that they were the ones behind races that actually won Statewide, that’s an odd flex. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:05 am: === If there was any oppo that comes close to overshadowing a black, successful, army veteran mayor then he wouldn’t be the guy.=== He’s *not* the guy… yet. Slow down, Speed Racer, your salivating has ya slipping and sliding all over the floor, lol If Covid, as an example is a big thing for GOPers, Irvin’s praise for Dr. Ezike in a primary… you think that’s gonna fly? “Get real”, lol - r00tin66 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:07 am: The GOP machine pandering to moderates and Dems not thrilled with JB is pathetic. Oh, let’s throw a black guy at the top of the ticket then fill the rest of the slate with Lily-whites. Really??? Voters are smarter than Raunerites think. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:08 am: “The Primary is still 6 months away, not 3.” More than half of the GOP primary votes come from south of I-80. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:10 am: ===In that cage match=== Only if Ben’s Auto Sales can be a sponsor will I comment on any cage match, by anyone, in Illinois. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:11 am: When opponents are getting outspent 5-10 to 1, they better hope and pray they have something better than a meaningless city proclamation honoring a doctor. As I said, get real. lol - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:15 am: ===Irvin’s praise for Dr. Ezike in a primary… you think that’s gonna fly?=== Outside of Bailey, who’s going to attack him on it? - SWIL_Voter - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:15 am: These haha posts desperately want to project confidence lol - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:17 am: === Outside of Bailey=== Isn’t Bailey, arguably, the front runner? You don’t think a candidate like Irvin with money he may get the others won’t carve out Irvin in his Covid thinking? - SpiDem - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:18 am: Ken Griffin, showing clearly that infinite access to money does not mean you possess political acumen. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:19 am: -The Primary is still 6 months away, not 3.- That’s a long time, and a lot of things will happen and have to happen between now and then. Mayor Irvin hasn’t even announced yet. Could he win a primary? With that cash sure. But it’s a GOP primary and in some backwards parts of it the dog whistles will be blowing. As for oppo, everybody’s got something. It’s just a matter of if it can be found and how bad the public thinks it is. - zatoichi - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:19 am: $300M from Griffin, at least $300M from Pritzker, and the compratively small bucks from all others equals unending commercials, ads, mailers, and robos. If they have to do this at least vary the content and make them interesting. My last election response was largely ignore, toss, and hang up. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:19 am: AD - more importantly, even if Bailey does attack him on it, who will hear it? Last I checked, Bailey had less than 1 mill on hand more than 6 months out. He better shed a few staff and stop wrapping a giant bus if he wants to have any money for ads on TV that break through in crunch time. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:20 am: The oppo is not about the candidate so much as it is about Griffin himself. He has a record under Rauner, and it’s abysmal. Any candidate Griffin backs is tied directly to him, and is his puppet, so to speak. The Griffin/Rauner record is a potential gold mine, especially with a union rights amendment on the ballot. - fs - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:20 am: == Isn’t Bailey, arguably, the front runner?== Technically, I believe Undecided is still the front runner. Bailey has his base, no doubt, but it’s by no means an overwhelming majority. - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:21 am: =Well respected mayor who appeals to suburban Democrats. Sounds good to me.= It’s addition by subtraction. Rauner found that out with HB40. And as noted above half of the GOP primary votes come from outside of the suburbs. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:21 am: === Bailey does attack him on it, who will hear it? Last I checked=== … Illinois Review is already going after Irvin, then there’s Facebook… and all these other anti-vax groups that got “thousands” to respond to a proposed state law. Get real, amirite? - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:24 am: =Outside of Bailey, who’s going to attack him on it?= Every commenter on Facebook and Twitter. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:27 am: OW - You can’t possibly believe statewide races are won or lost on social media do you? IR has an audience of dozens…multiple dozens even. If that were true, Peggy Hubbard wouldn’t have lost by 20 to Mark Curran in the US Senate primary. You’re still not getting real. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:30 am: ===Every commenter on Facebook and Twitter.=== Facebook and Twitter aren’t the real world. - Chicago Blue - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:30 am: @ Mr Illinois That’s pretty thick to say the Democrats cynically exploit identity politics when the non-Trump standard bearer for the Republican Party just introduced the ‘Stop Woke’ act in Florida yesterday to fight the scourge of CRT. Of course, Critical Race Theory isn’t taught in a single Florida public school, but let’s ignore facts and focus on cynically exploiting racial divisions. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:34 am: ==He may already be out of time to beat Bailey for the nomination. == Six months is a long time. ==As if KG and team didn’t do their due diligence when deciding to invest hundreds of millions of dollars.== Well, first of all, Griffin is human just like everyone else and is perfectly capable of making mistakes. He was still investing in Rauner after the budget debacle, after all. But second, Griffin clearly didn’t get to pick from, whatever, every Republican in IL. We know that it was a protracted process to find a guy, which indicates that he might’ve had to do some settling. So I wouldn’t assume that Irvin is immune to attack just bc Griffin is behind him. - Glengarry - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:35 am: Cagematch mentioned on Capitol Fax…..that’s Ultimate. - CubsFan16 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:37 am: It is truly laughable to compare Richard Irvin to Bruce Rauner. Get a grip people and get out of your bubble. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:39 am: ==Facebook and Twitter aren’t the real world. == They’re increasingly vital to campaigns, tho. Pritzker and Trump both invested heavily in them (tho in very different ways). And in an era of dying local news and DVRs to let you fast forward through commercials, you quickly run out of ways to reach voters if you write them off. - CubsFan16 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:41 am: Rootin66 - It’s DEFINITELY not racist to say “They’re throwing a black guy out there”…he’s the mayor of the second largest city in IL, a veteran, and a compelling life story. Get a grip. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:42 am: -his voting record shows he’s pulled Democrat primary ballots more than GOP ballots over the last five or six elections.- And here we go. Falls right in line with the purity test narrative Bailey is already using on Sullivan. - High Socks - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:43 am: Mainstream GOP donors: What if we nominated a centrist person of color? Actual GOP primary voters: Ok, but will he execute Fauci and the other satan worshipers? - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:44 am: ==Get a grip people and get out of your bubble. == Let’s be honest, Irvin is the mayor of Aurora. Great city, but it’s got 200,000 people out of a state of 12M. And the people really familiar with it’s municipal politics is far lower than the population. So anyone who can, right now, make any sort of confident claim about Irvin is the one really in the bubble. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:47 am: Arsenal - You’re misunderstanding. Facebook (not really twitter) is certainly used heavily as an easy, cheap way to advertise and target voters. But what a loud vocal minority of people are saying/commenting/posting on those platforms does not represent a general sentiment of the public in the “real world.” So when some says, well well look at what they are saying on Facebook…and Illinois Review. It means nothing. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:47 am: ===Let’s be honest, Irvin is the mayor of Aurora. Great city, but it’s got 200,000 people out of a state of 12M.=== By that measure, Pat Quinn was a better candidate than JB since he held all kinds of Statewide offices. - Raising Kane - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:49 am: I forgot Illinois Review even existed. It’s like a crazy flashback!! - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:53 am: This isn’t the 2014 governor’s race. This isn’t the 2014 Republican party. GOP primary voters aren’t going to go for Democrat Light in the primary. I don’t care how much money anyone spends. The only way it works is if Kenny G gives Bailey a ton of money to run for a different state-wide office. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:53 am: === By that measure, Pat Quinn was a better candidate than JB since he held all kinds of Statewide offices.=== That’s what Quinn ran on… geez… lol === You’re misunderstanding. Facebook (not really twitter) is certainly used heavily as an easy, cheap way to advertise and target voters. But what a loud vocal minority of people are saying/commenting/posting on those platforms does not represent a general sentiment of the public in the “real world.”=== Welp, 33% of GOP voters earlier made Bailey the front runner. To reset my thoughts; === As one who looked at Irvin’s first forays in politics with real skepticism, what Irvin has done as mayor of Aurora is something to base a run on and is well liked in the region, a natural progression from mayor of the second largest city in Illinois seems “natural”. If Irvin gets a quarter of a billion… it’d be a real race.=== We don’t know if that’s a thing yet. A real race doesn’t mean Pritzker’s “imminent defeat” abd this all needs to be at play; == The question first is if Irvin can get through a primary by allowing Rabine/Bailey/Schimpf to split enough together the Trumpkin vote … and then take down the valor stealing Sullivan… so Irvin can win with ~41%… … then consolidate all that Trumpkin-ness so that the base wants to come out to vote. One race at a time. Primary. Griffin would be better suited to muddy up the primary to help Irvin (prop up Rabine/Schimpf, scuttle Sullivan) and then press forward.=== The rest of this is predicated on Irvin having the above *be* possible. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:54 am: ===I forgot Illinois Review even existed. It’s like a crazy flashback=== They still might be in a dial up network, I dunno. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:55 am: === nearly took down=== Losing is still losing - Hahaha - And that candidate I think used social media, LOL - CubsFan16 - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:55 am: Arsenal, the bubble is people on here who automatically link Rauner to Irvin. That’s inside baseball thinking, much harder to get the electorate to believe that a black man that rose from poverty to success is the same as a rich white Chicago billionaire. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:57 am: - AD -… - Hahaha -… Who exactly in this climate is Irvin’s voters? It’s like Rauner… who exactly was a Rauner voter? If elections are an indicator, 15% less of the voters Pritzker had for Rauner. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 10:58 am: ==By that measure, Pat Quinn was a better candidate than JB since he held all kinds of Statewide offices. == Huh? I wasn’t measuring anything. I wasn’t assessing anyone’s skills as a candidate. I was just saying that Irvin has represented a tiny fraction of the state, so if you’re all so confident about how his campaign will or won’t go, *you’re* the outlier, even whilst you accuse others of being in a “bubble”. I feel like you’re so desperate to say “No, actually Irvin is awesome” that you’re shoe-horning that idea into discussions where people weren’t even criticizing him. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:01 am: Is the thought that the old, angry, white, rural, racist thinking, conspiracy theorists are going to back Irvin… in a primary… - Nitemayor - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:02 am: How does Irvin overcome the RINO label? Mary Miller! - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:02 am: Need to see his policy stance on statewide issues, but he is a very appealing candidate and one that I would support with time and donations. I suspect that many GOP voters in the Kane/Dupage area would as well. - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:04 am: OW - the point is that if NJ Republicans would have had a better and well funded candidate, it’s likely that person would have won since the nobody with no money lost by 2%. I know you’re smart enough to get that. Irvin would be somebody - somebody with a truck load of money. Dollar for dollar with JB. If that atmosphere sticks around for 2022, JB is in trouble. All I’m saying. As for social media - you aren’t understanding. It’s not how the campaigns use socials, its what a loud minority of people saying on them that doesn’t represent the real world. Try to keep up. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:05 am: ==Arsenal, the bubble is people on here who automatically link Rauner to Irvin. == I would agree that anyone on here- including you and me- is in a bubble. Most people simply don’t comment on political-insider blogs. We’re the weirdos. And most people in this state have never even had Irvin on their ballot, nor has he ever really faced a sustained negative campaign. I don’t have any idea how that’ll go for him. If you think you’re familiar enough with Irvin’s career or temperament or skills or whatever to make a confident prediction about that, then you’re even more the outlier. I will say that I’m generally skeptical of voters’ memories, so that augers against the Rauner connection moving the needle much. But, otoh, voters care less about the details of a candidate than you think or hope. Do they know that Rauner was raised in a professional class household by a cell phone exec? Do they care that that is clearly more affluent than how Irvin was raised? Or does the fact that they’re both Republicans tell them all they need to know for 80% of voters? I’d put my money on the latter. - Huh? - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:07 am: Irvin is running with the (R) behind his name. Won’t vote for him. Ever. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:07 am: === the point is that if=== The point is you have no point. Illinois is not New Jersey, Pritzker will not be outspent. Your unrealistic drooling for something won’t make it so. ===you aren’t understanding=== Says the person pointing the guy from New Jersey. (Sigh) “Sure” - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:08 am: Arsenal - They aren’t fighting for the 80% of voters who would make that inference. It’s the 20% who don’t or wouldn’t that JB and the GOP nominee will be fighting over. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:10 am: === It’s the 20% who don’t or wouldn’t that JB and the GOP nominee will be fighting over.=== Now throw in Trump, abortion, and Covid… - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:12 am: ==But what a loud vocal minority of people are saying/commenting/posting on those platforms does not represent a general sentiment of the public in the “real world.”== The question wasn’t “How representative is the conversation on social media?” The question was how well messages disseminated through social media reach voters. Both the experiences of Pritzker (who attacked social media via direct advertising) and Trump (who took a more…”organic” is the wrong word, but it wasn’t direct advertising, it was more about making sure his message got shared thru the right existing accounts and groups) indicate that such messages reach the voters rather well. Like I said. You don’t have many other options. A ton of voters, especially in the insular world of primaries, are going to get their information through social media. Dismiss that at your peril. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:12 am: Its sounding like Irvin’s base is R _ N _ Republicans that support Dr. Ezike and voted in Dem primaries? Interesting base. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:13 am: How much shadow Dem money would be spent to prop up Bailey in the primary? How much? In my very remedial research on Mayor Irvin, he seems like a great guy. He might make a decent governor. He has almost no path. - Jocko - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:15 am: ==Facebook and Twitter aren’t the real world.== Neither is QAnon, but look at how quickly they get their messages (and supporters) out. I wish Irvin well, but all five candidates are fighting to be team captain of the Washington Generals - Hahaha - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:15 am: OW - As far as political predictors go in terms of reflecting the possibilities under the current national mood, NJ is a fantastic stand-in for IL based on political/racial/educational demographics. You’re intentionally being obtuse if you don’t see that. What happened in NJ and VA represents a 12-14 pt swing towards Republicans. Again, if that national mood is still around for 2022, JB in trouble. Rauner+McCann lost by 12 pts… - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:17 am: Any candidate who is backed by Griffin’s multimillions is directly tied to Griffin’s record with Rauner. Since poor Griffin, who has been so marginalized by the DPI and JB that he has to look under couch cushions and scrounge around in pants pockets for an extra $300 million, wants to jump into another campaign, his record is most germane. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:18 am: ===How much shadow Dem money would be spent to prop up Bailey in the primary? How much?=== I’d also ask how much will Griffin spend to prop up Schimpf/Rabine and discredit Sullivan in that too. This GOP primary is about finding a sweet spot and how others can help in threading a needle to do it. Then… get Irvin rolling at the same time… as anti-vax, and purity legions hammer Irvin on his past. Fascinating stuff - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:21 am: === What happened in NJ and VA represents a 12-14 pt swing towards Republicans. Again, if that national mood is still around for 2022, JB in trouble.=== Can’t *beat* someone with no one. Irvin can make it a race, but you’re very obtuse if you think things are staying the same a year from now. No way. Abortion alone with the Clarence Thomas court won’t allow it. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:21 am: ===Now throw in Trump, abortion, and Covid=== How’d that work in Virginia? 2017 Virginia Dem got 53% and 2018 Illinois JB got 54%. If that’s your messaging and you feel confident, have at it. But, in a Blue Wave year, the Fair Tax got 47% and next year is looking more red, so keep screaming Ken Griffin and Trump, but I’m not sure that’s the best strategy at this point. - Boom Goes the Dynamite - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:22 am: AD Quig puts some meat the bone. Griffin apparently won’t stake Irvin unless he can raise his own money first. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/citadel-founder-ken-griffin-denies-he-has-candidate-challenge-gov-pritzker - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:22 am: ===if you think things are staying the same a year from now=== Joe Manchin may have a say in things staying the same for the next year. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:22 am: === How’d that work in Virginia?=== Friend, the Mississippi abortion case wasn’t decided then. Please, keep up. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:24 am: ==NJ is a fantastic stand-in for IL based on political/racial/educational demographics== NJ is an OK stand in for IL, but the issue is that an off year election is an absolutely lousy stand in for a mid term. Even though mid term turnout isn’t great, it’s still several orders of magnitude better than odd year elections. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:25 am: ===Joe Manchin=== What does that even mean in any context? Covid, Abortion, Trump, those are in play. Crime and Economy are sitting and stewing You’re off the rails on this Manchin thingy, lol - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:27 am: === the Fair Tax got 47% === A referendum race is different than a candidate race. Try again. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:29 am: ==in a Blue Wave year, the Fair Tax got 47%== 2020 wasn’t a blue wave year. Republicans picked up seats in the U.S. House and we ended up with a 50-50 Senate that might not have happened if not for the quirks of GA’s electoral system. Closer to home, IL Dems lost a Supreme Court seat, some incumbents got real scares, and some challengers fell far short of expectations. Moreover, a ballot referendum is far different than an election for Governor, and Pritzker infamously failed to invest time, money, and effort into the Fair Tax campaign, while he’s already been on the air for his own re-election for months. There’s just no real comparison here. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:31 am: The other thing is, you two are spending an awful lot of time insisting that no attack on Irvin will work, but not a lot of time on what the argument against Pritzker is supposed to be. I’m pretty confident that Republicans can find a good one, but he’s an Illinois Democrat with firmly above-water approval ratings. You’re gonna need more than just “Richard Irvin isn’t Bruce Rauner” to beat him. - Annonin' - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:36 am: Sorry if Griffie Stooge offended. Will work on somethin’ sna[[ier Meanwhile other places are sayin’ everyone’s favorite Avery Bourne will be the lite gov for the Griffie___________ (fill in blank) Thinking Mr/Ms OW and Annonin’ should buy a radio station pronto. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:43 am: === Thinking Mr/Ms OW and Annonin’ should buy a radio station pronto.=== Let’s take this off-air, please leave your contact info… if we’re gonna get that station, I’m a Mr. :) Be well. - SKI - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:50 am: Could care less about his voting record. If Alexi can endorse the GOP candidate and get slated by Cook County Dems a few years later, then I think Irvin can slide. Weird territory, but seems to be the norm on both sides now. - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:50 am: === Friend, the Mississippi abortion case wasn’t decided then. Please, keep up.=== You’re making my point for me. I’m not even sure what the Mississippi abortion case is, so I think that will be the same for a ton of voters. - Pizza Man - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:50 am: Mayor Irvin…focus on your city issues. No chance whether the drop a 30M into your would-be campaign. Chicago/Central/Downstate…Mayor Irvin who? - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:52 am: ==is insisting that party leaders raise millions of dollars first in support of this person== And there it is. I’m very dumb, but I saw that Griffin would eventually put some strings on his support coming a mile away. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:53 am: ===I’m not even sure what the Mississippi abortion case is, so I think that will be the same for a ton of voters.=== Just because it doesn’t effect you doesn’t mean it won’t ring true for others… like women. If you’re going to comment in a vacuum and say pay attention to this specifics… I mean… - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:54 am: ===Chicago/Central/Downstate…Mayor Irvin who? === You could say much the same thing about the other GOP candidates and about candidate Pritzker in 2018. Take a breath already. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:54 am: ==I’m not even sure what the Mississippi abortion case is, so I think that will be the same for a ton of voters. == I tend to think that overturning Roe v. Wade will be a pretty big deal. Casey v. Planned Parenthood was, and it only curtailed Roe a little. - SWIL_Voter - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:55 am: == You’re making my point for me. I’m not even sure what the Mississippi abortion case is, so I think that will be the same for a ton of voters.== I promise more voters know about the abortion cases than know who Richard Irvin is. And there are already an awful lot of Darren Bailey signs sprouting up in my half of the state - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:55 am: ===Griffin would eventually put some strings on his support=== It makes sense. Get Ron Gidwitz’s donor class involved so it doesn’t look like whoever they support is a Griffin puppet. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 11:58 am: Griffin doesn’t want to be the sole puppet proprietor, Griffin would rather have folks buy shares and be the Chairman. And it is fair, insofar, something for nothing is a fairytale in politics. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:03 pm: ==It makes sense.== Oh, absolutely. Why would he want to invest in a candidate who can’t do the job? But I wouldn’t be surprised if more caveats are revealed as we move forward (nor would I blame Griffin), and it’s funny how it’s already clearly more complicated than “Richard Irvin now has $300M to run for Governor”. - fs - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:04 pm: == And there are already an awful lot of Darren Bailey signs sprouting up in my half of the state== There are two well known facts about signs: (1) They don’t vote; and (2) They’re very easy to replace. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:04 pm: ==I promise more voters know about the abortion cases than know who Richard Irvin is.== I’m not sure about that. Well, I guess I am, just because the mayor of a suburban city doesn’t get a ton of press. But even if it’s close, that’s just right now. Once the case is decided the way we all think it will be, it’s going to be pretty big news. - SWIL_Voter - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:07 pm: == There are two well known facts about signs: (1) They don’t vote; and (2) They’re very easy to replace.== Neither of which have anything to do with the point that both the Mississippi abortion case and Darren Bailey are vastly more well known than Richard Irvin - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:08 pm: I also would not assume that Irvin (or any other candidate, I guess) *can’t* raise whatever money Griffin wants him to. But if he has to live off the land for awhile, that’s a significant advantage he is now without, and his ideological flexibility is now a bigger danger in the primary. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:29 pm: === are vastly more well known than Richard Irvin=== The primary is more than 6 months away, not tomorrow or even next week. - Pundent - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:34 pm: It’s all speculation at this point until Irvin says he’s in or out. But regardless of the candidate there will be three central questions that will confront them in the primary and likely general election: 1. Vaccines & testing 2. Abortion 3. The legitimacy of Joe Biden’s presidency - Regular democrat - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 12:58 pm: If Ben’s auto sales is going to be a sponsor then One Stop 4301 S lake park where i buy my beer and chitlins by the case has to be involved also - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:08 pm: == You can’t stand Frerichs, can’t stand Giannoulias. Supposedly, they can’t bear each other. In that cage match,== How about instead of a cage match, make that a celebrity golf tournament hosted by Tom Cross. Who would win then? - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:11 pm: ===…make that a celebrity golf tournament hosted by Tom Cross.=== I can’t get Cross to return any of my calls or invitations to play golf, Cross tried to have me barred from Fox Bend Golf Course… I’m guessing Cross and I won’t be near any golf courses together anytime soon. I’m not angry, just disappointed - 47th Ward - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:14 pm: ===Who would win then=== Alexi would lift Cross and put him on his shoulders and together they would stand taller than Frerichs. Game, set and match. - Cool Papa Bell - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:35 pm: I think R’s might want to work the margins here and get a few of these folks to run down ballot. As mentioned he’d look strong for a run at Treasurer or SOS. Start the farm team now - and do it the right way. The primary will be a real test - oppo him with ties to another billionaire, votes democratic, supports Ezike, ect. That’s a heavy lift with the new breed of single issue voters I know and circle with. Can’t saying it can’t be done - but Ives got so close to an incumbent Rauner by running right. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:44 pm: I guess if Rauner supports Irvin… Goodness. - JP Altgeld - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:49 pm: @OW Maybe Tom Cross doesn’t want to waste an afternoon with a high handicapper? - AD - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:49 pm: === are vastly more well known than Richard Irvin=== One news cycle can change that and $1 million in ads can change that. Now imagine that multiplied by 300 and I don’t think they’re as worried about name recognition as some of you are. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:54 pm: - AD - So Rauner endorsing Irvin… that helps? LOL - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 1:57 pm: - JP Altgeld - Why? Are you required to play too? You might slow us up. I hear ya, it makes sense now. :) - SWIL_Voter - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:09 pm: == One news cycle can change that and $1 million in ads can change that. Now imagine that multiplied by 300 and I don’t think they’re as worried about name recognition as some of you are.== I have no idea what you guys are so worked up about. I’m not worried about name recognition at all. I simply responded to a post about how the Mississippi abortion case isn’t on anybody’s mind. Yea obviously lots of things can change. Right now though, if you think nobody is thinking about Mississippi abortion, even fewer people are thinking about Irvin, a guy who I had literally never even heard of until a couple hours ago, and unlike 99% of people, I’m a politics obsessive. IF he runs, IF he runs for Governor, IF he gets the Griffin money, IF he can survive a lunatic fringe primary, he’ll still have to contend with JB’s money and record. Lots of IFs for a guy who is going to start the race from way behind. People here literally saying he’s the inevitable winner. No idea what planet you all are on - 1st Ward - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:09 pm: “Pritzker will not be outspent.” Pritzker also wastes alot of campaign money. I don’t think the ads he has been running for the last few months are going to be helpful in November 2022. It will be interesting to see if he addresses or ignores crime in his ads/campaign especially with statewide bail reform taking place being implemented starting in July. He will likely need to walk a tightrope on this one. Spending more money while either ignoring or being out of touch on this topic isn’t going to do alot of good and would likely turn voters off. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:14 pm: Florida Man Endorses For Job He Couldn’t Keep - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:15 pm: ===We have real problems in Illinois with violence, corruption and profligate spending and I look forward to supporting candidates — be it Republican or Democrat — who will address these issues that plague our state,” Griffin said in a statement.=== The Griffin Party. At least it’s no secret, “Republican or Democrat” - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:29 pm: -God alone is the kingmaker.- We’re not crowning a king here. Also, how much is God donating? /s - JP Altgeld - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:44 pm: @OW It would be my pleasure to play a match against you at any time in 2022 (I don’t get south much). I’ll even sign a confidentiality agreement to not disclose your identity and/or allow you to wear a disguise. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:46 pm: === It would be my pleasure to play a match against you at any time in 2022 (I don’t get south much). I’ll even sign a confidentiality agreement to not disclose your identity and/or allow you to wear a disguise.=== I think I’m going to *eventually* have some sort of a golf outing at some point. I’ll put you on the list. - TaylorvilleTornado - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:50 pm: Some of the posters are really under-estimating the difficulty a GOP candidate is going to have trying to walk the line between full-on Trumpist and moderate suburban conservative in order to win state-wide office in Illinois. Being a black veteran from a humble background isn’t going to save him from it. - Hans - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 2:57 pm: Those pushing KG’s plan? As they say in Germany….follow Z money. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:00 pm: ==One news cycle can change that and $1 million in ads can change that.== You keep missing the point. It’s not that Irvin (if he runs, and if he gets Griffin’s money) will remain unknown, it’s that you were asserting that the SCOTUS cases that might overturn Roe are unknown and thus won’t be factors. And while I might agree that they’re unknown right now, well, “One news cycle can change that and $1 million in ads can change that.” - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:03 pm: ===trying to walk the line between full-on Trumpist and moderate suburban conservative in order to win state-wide office in Illinois.=== This, and Rauner saying Irvin is the best chance is truly epic wishing going on… … months and months out, not one petition filed, not even one big dollar raised. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:05 pm: ==I don’t think the ads he has been running for the last few months are going to be helpful in November 2022.== Maybe not, but the idea behind them is sound- get a drumbeat of your positive message going long before anyone’s voting. It worked for Obama’s re-elect and Rick Scott’s campaign for Senate. The big limitation is that ads have a shelf life, so you can’t ever really go dark. And that’s a problem for most campaigns, since they have limited budgets. But that is not Pritzker’s problem. ==Spending more money while either ignoring or being out of touch on this topic isn’t going to do alot of good and would likely turn voters off. == I mean, sure, if he runs as bad of a campaign as you hope he does, he’ll lose. But that’s not a safe assumption. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:07 pm: ==Being a black veteran from a humble background isn’t going to save him from it. == I really think $300M might do it, but it’s not clear that it’s going to be that amount, or that anyone will get it right away. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:09 pm: ===I don’t think the ads he has been running for the last few months are going to be helpful in November 2022.=== Meh, Pritzker is still over 51% approval. Folks already not voting for Pritzker aren’t going to be swayed in any way, ad or not. Folks worried about a Covidiot governor winning or a Rauner endorsed candidate that ironically might be pro-life will find ads that remind folks “that’s the other guy” will help. - Publius - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:16 pm: I about spit out my coffee when I saw the number of comments. On the Mayor I am not sure how well he does downstate with the traditional GOP voters in the primary. Sounds like a lot of money to waste. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:19 pm: ==Sounds like a lot of money to waste. == Well the good news is that it sounds like Irving or whoever else has to prove that they have some chops before Griffin cuts the first check. - low level - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:34 pm: == He’s since had a change of heart about running.== A $300,000,000 commitment will do that I suppose. - Dotnonymous - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:37 pm: Republican?…Democrat?…Who cares?…just get me one….the right one? - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:39 pm: “Meh, Pritzker is still over 51% approval.” I’ve resisted comment on the general, because I think getting through the primary will be near impossible. But… Bruce Rauner beat Pat Quinn by 4 points at a time when Pat Quinn’s approval ratings were in the 30s. JB ain’t Pat Quinn. Even in a GOP wave election, JB will be tough to beat. - OneMan - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:42 pm: ==‘# of comments’. 46 by OW as of 4:22pm. Jeez == Well Oswego is the gateway to Aurora…. As a long time Aurora resident it has been interesting to read the comments about him and about Aurora today. Almost makes me want to re-enable the blog to see how many hits I would be getting today since I used to blog about Aurora sometimes (and about him since his first run for mayor). Couple of thoughts. If you look at who has given to him over the years you will see both unions and some of the most conservative names in politics in this neck of the woods. Including a no longer with us big money conservative from up the Fox River a ways. There have been few in Kane County who have been able to do that, a few, but not that many. He has genuine campaign and people skills. If you underestimate him on that, it is at your risk. I think he will go over better than some think downstate. If he does do this, he will put in the effort for sure. Full disclosure I have given money to his campaigns in the past and have known him for at least the last 15 years. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 3:59 pm: === Well Oswego is the gateway to Aurora….=== My 308 friend. Irvin has a strong reputation in the region. That’s undeniable - Real - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 4:15 pm: As a person of color I can say that most of the people I know will not support this guy. Look at other republican guys similar to him that have run on a national platform. We don’t take them serious. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 4:23 pm: ==As a person of color I can say that most of the people I know will not support this guy.== I think that’s right, but bear in mind that if could pull off like, 10% of PoC Dem voters, he’d still be losing the vast majority of them but still probably win. That math may be off, but you get the point. He doesn’t have to win the Dem base to win. - Real - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 5:03 pm: You might be right. Lori Lightfoot is an example within the dem party. She did not do well on the south or west side of Chicago among people of color.. but I do see Maze Jackson playing an important part in trying to get people to vote for Irvin - ArchPundit - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 5:05 pm: =-==If there was any oppo that comes close to overshadowing a black, successful, army veteran mayor then he wouldn’t be the guy Irvin seems like a sane Republican and someone I might not vote for, but is a reasonable guy. Hence, I see no path through the GOP Primary. Jeanne Ives almost took out Rauner. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 16, 21 @ 5:14 pm: === Lori Lightfoot is an example within the dem party. She did not do well on the south or west side of Chicago among people of color..=== Narrator: Lightfoot won all 50 wards. - Student - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 12:42 am: I know proposing taxing retirement income is a political disaster, but is anyone able to offer an opinion if taxing retirement income is a good or a bad policy idea? - DePaul 97 - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 12:58 am: Under Irvin, I read Aurora’s population has actually decreased with people moving elsewhere due to taxes and crime. There seems to be many better options for Griffin - I would much rather see him go for a business person than any career politician who is just looking for the next gig. - DePaul 97 - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 1:02 am: Irvin is a criminal defense attorney from a suburb known for crime. If he defended any drug dealers or gang members, that won’t fly with most GOP voters. - Long Time Independent - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 1:07 am: So how do committeeman from conservative townships sell this guy? Any Republican committeeman who’s opposed in the primary cannot even think of endorsing this guy. To me and it’s JMO I see Alan Keyes 102 all over again - Oswego Willy - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 6:14 am: === Under Irvin, I read=== Where did you read this? Thanks. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Dec 17, 21 @ 7:07 am: ==I would much rather see him go for a business person=== It was tried. Rauner. By nearly every measure Illinois was worse off with the businessman Bruce Rauner. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.