A look at Irvin’s claims about Aurora crime
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz takes a look at Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin’s crime-fighting claims…
Overall, the number of murders [in Aurora] has hovered in a narrow range, from seven in 2016, the year before Irvin took office, to a high of 12 and then down to six last year. In comparison, the number of homicides reported by the Chicago Police Department on its website has soared recently, moving from 576 in 2018 to 770 in 2020 and 797 last year.
The number of reported robberies and burglaries in Aurora has dropped steadily during Irvin’s tenure, even during the pandemic.
Other categories, following national trends, rose when the pandemic hit in 2020 but dropped back in 2021. For instance, the number of reported shootings went from 110 in 2019 to 154 in 2020 to 105 in 2021.
But the number of criminal sexual assaults have risen steadily from 57 in 2016 to 135 in 2021. Aggravated assault or battery also are up, though not as much, going from 359 in 2019 to 513 last year.
[Aurora Police Department spokesperson Paris Lewbel] said much of that is due to the pandemic, with people staying home more (and getting in more domestic fights) and with some domestic violence shelters having to restrict their operations with COVID-19 raging.
Criminal sexual assault reports dropped in Chicago during the period ending in 2020.
* But here’s some background info from the campaign…
Aurora Police believe that the increase in reported sexual assaults is due to people returning to school and work, where sexual assault incidents typically occur. Efforts in recent years to reduce the stigma around reporting sexual assault may have also contributed to the increase.
…Adding… If you include 2021, which Irvin did, then sexual assaults rose in the city as well. WGN…
The number of sexual assaults have increased in almost every part of the city, according to data released by Chicago police.
Chicago Police Department data shows 19 of the city’s 22 police districts saw an increase in reports from 2020 to 2021.
In some areas, the numbers doubled.
The highest percentage change in 2020 was in the Jefferson Park neighborhood with numbers up 121%.
…Adding… DGA…
“Richard Irvin is running on lies because his true record is too weak to stand on,” said DGA Senior Communications Advisor Christina Amestoy. “If Irvin wants Illinoisans to believe he’s ‘tough-on-crime,’ then he should stop manipulating statistics and answer for his history of profiting from keeping violent offenders out of jail, and reject his megadonor’s gun money.”
* Related…
* Lights and noise at Irvin’s State of City address, where Aurora Christkindlmarket is announced: Three protesters started shouting during the part of his speech where he praised the Aurora Police Department, when he said there were huge decreases in murders, burglaries and shootings. The protesters couldn’t be heard, however, as Irvin spoke louder and people started standing and applauding the police.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:32 am:
Looks like a fairly standard record, following the broader trends. I wouldn’t criticize him much over it, but I also don’t think it lives up to the reputation he is trying to convey.
- well... - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:36 am:
==Looks like a fairly standard record, following the broader trends. I wouldn’t criticize him much over it, but I also don’t think it lives up to the reputation he is trying to convey.==
From 2020 to 2021 murders went down 45 percent and shootings were down 32 percent. Lori Lightwood would kill to have those stats.
- well... - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:37 am:
*Lightfoot. Autocorrect is fun
- OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:41 am:
I am looking forward to Chritkindlmarket coming to town.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:47 am:
Crime statistics are slippery things. Murders may be gang-related or the result of an argument, but the idea, “Richard Irvin’s really making it tough on criminals in Aurora” probably doesn’t cross a person’s mind before they commit the act.
Similarly, burglars and robbers likely don’t consider that threat before acting.
If you’re a former prosecutor, you run on being “tough on crime.” Aren’t all prosecutors tough on crime? If you’re a former mayor, you run on “brought lots of businesses to town,” if you can prove that.
Image and perception. Simple, emotional messages for TV commercials.
It must work or candidates wouldn’t keep doing it over and over and over.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 9:59 am:
I am not certain the “we’ve always had a lot of sexual assaults. People are just more likely to report their sexual assaults” is the best explanation to offer unless Mayor Irvin has implemented some kind of program to increase the likelihood of people coming forward.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 10:18 am:
==I am not certain the “we’ve always had a lot of sexual assaults. People are just more likely to report their sexual assaults” is the best explanation to offer unless Mayor Irvin has implemented some kind of program to increase the likelihood of people coming forward. ==
Well, if Irvin really has to explain his record on crime at any point, he’s already lost.
- The Velvet Frog - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 11:05 am:
==From 2020 to 2021 murders went down 45 percent and shootings were down 32 percent.==
When they went from 12 murders down to 7? And then went right back up again? Yeah, I’m sure Lightfoot could also cherry pick the short span of time that looks the best on the graph too. The full record doesn’t look great and he’s attracting fact checkers like flies.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 11:11 am:
=From 2020 to 2021 murders went down 45 percent and shootings were down 32 percent.=
Explain how they went up about the same percentage after Irvin took office and went back down to the pre Irvin level now.
Because that is statistically accurate. Otherwise he (and you) are just cherry pickiing.
- Rudy’s teeth - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 11:44 am:
Perhaps Richard Irvin should run for mayor of Chicago rather than governor of Illinois. Reducing crime in Aurora is quite a strong message.
Would be great to ride the Red Line in Chicago without fear for one’s life.
- The Velvet Frog - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 11:52 am:
It’s only a strong message if it’s actually true. Or at least you can convince most people it’s true, when it’s not.
- Leslie K - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 12:08 pm:
Regarding the sexual assault increases, the Sexual Assault Incident Procedure Act (725 ILCS 203/1) (effective 2017) standardized and increased reporting requirements for law enforcement and required departments to revise and implement policies for responding to sexual assault incidents by January 2021.
Some of the increase in reporting might actually be the result of implementing this law (taking reports they would not have taken previously). Although a little more specificity from the Irvin campaign that connects the dots certainly is in order.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 12:24 pm:
=Would be great to ride the Red Line in Chicago without fear for one’s life.=
I assume you won’t go to St. Louis then. But I am guessing you “worry” about of lot of things.
- Rudy’s teeth - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 1:11 pm:
From WTTW
Among a double-digit uptick in violent crime on CTA trains, officers will serve on teams to patrol CTA Red and Blue train lines. Increase of smoking, drinking, unruly passengers and other problems.
To get around, folks walk, use CTA busses, or hire a car service.
Worry is your word not mine.
- H-W - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 1:29 pm:
Regarding domestic violence (assaults) and the claim that these are up in Aurora because people stayed home during the pandemic, you cannot subsequently argue that sexual assaults are up because people are back at work and school. That’s just using theoretical arguments about “social forces” causing behavioral shifts at the community level (societal too).
As a sociologist, I believe social forces do in fact exist, and can be measured in the context of “rates of crime.” But you cannot make willy-nilly assertions that in one case, quarantine causes rates to change upward, and in a second case, leaving quarantine causes rates to change upward.
More important, these crimes will not be solved by theoretical arguments. They will be solved by community action. And if “Governors own,”, the so too do Mayors. The mayor goal is to reduce crime. His explanation that crime increases are beyond his control (e.g., social forces) is an abdication of responsibility for serving the community.
- The Velvet Frog - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 1:37 pm:
I’m not sure what misleading claims about crime in Aurora have to do with the red line.
- Tallone - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 2:00 pm:
A candidate funded by Illinois’ very own oligarch….
- Suburban Mom - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 2:09 pm:
===I’m not sure what misleading claims about crime in Aurora have to do with the red line.===
Republicans in Illinois have no records of accomplishments to run on, so they all have to run on “Chicago is bad and scary; vote for me because I too think Chicago is bad and scary.”
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Mar 16, 22 @ 2:39 pm:
crime, and more than crime in general rule breaking is up on the red line. Smoking, stalking and robbing passengers as they leave, homeless using them as rolling shelters and bathrooms etc. Some of this is aftereffects of the pandemic where crowds stopped riding it thus allowing others to use them in socially unfriendly ways. Others is just due to higher crime nowdays.
Problem is the only solution the GOP ever offers is lock people who actually get caught (few) and convicted (even fewer) up for longer even though that is pretty well known not to be a deterrent.