State Senator Darren Bailey launched a nearly $400,000 TV ad campaign touting proven conservative of standing up and fighting with parents and students and against the failed establishment in Springfield. In addition, Bailey’s campaign released the following statement.
“Republicans deserve a nominee who is actually a Republican. Working families and taxpayers deserve a Governor who will stand up to the failed establishment in both parties and fight for them. Darren Bailey is the conservative choice and the only one in this race with a proven record of standing up and fighting against Pritzker’s mandates and failed and extreme national agenda. Darren has fought against every tax increase in Springfield. In addition, he has fought for law enforcement, safer communities, and bringing more opportunities to Illinois. We have led in every poll in this primary, and this ad buy will only build on the momentum our grassroots movement continues to build.”
Announcer: A 3rd Generation farmer, Darren Bailey learned the values of hard work, honesty and faith.
Darren took those values to Springfield. Stood up to the Madigan machine – fighting every single tax increase. Sued Governor Pritzker AND WON to keep Illinois open.
Now Darren is running for governor with a plan to cut taxes…
…Increase police funding.
…and prevent voter fraud.
Darren Bailey, the only true conservative Republican for Governor.
This is one heck of a word salad: State Senator Darren Bailey launched a nearly $400,000 TV ad campaign touting proven conservative of standing up and fighting with parents and students and against the failed establishment in Springfield.
Not to mention — I was brought to believe that it’s not good to fight with parents.
=Sued Gov. Pritzker and won, to keep Illinois open=
Lie. His lawsuit had nothing to do with Illinois, nor “keeping it open.” He sued, and got a restraining order that allowed him to not wear a mask, but did not affect any other Illinoisans.
For a GOP primary ad it earns a B+/A- in my book. Obviously, a lot of it greatly stretches the truth or is outright lies but don’t really think that matters to the people who he’s trying to reach with this.
It’s well-produced, plays the right notes to the base, and is better than any ad I’ve seen from the GOP field outside of some of the Irvin spots.
Rated B, nicely done and professional. Tamer than I would think and more mainstream. Bailey paid probably way more patriot dues than most if not all the other candidates. He is the only true conservative, so to speak. Irvin was a liberal just the other day.
Someone might want to point out to Darren that baseless claims of voter fraud could get you charged with a felony. Hard to keep Illinois open from inside of a jail cell.
Well he’s embracing the Trump voter fraud lie. For that he’s earned a D. A lot of what he says will resonate with the downstate GOP base. Don’t think it will influence the collar county women he would need to get elected.
- levivotedforjudy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:33 pm:
I have to give it an “A” because he understands his first goal is to win the primary. It goes directly to potential GOP voters. The Irvin camp needs to realize this. My money is still on JB vs. Bailey in the General.
- Bruce( no not him) - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:44 pm:
I give it a B
It appeals to the target audience, which is the whole point.
Won’t change my mind, but I’m not his audience.
- Osborne Smith III - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
Who is the LEO at the :21 mark and are they appearing in footage being used for a political campaign ad on taxpayer time?
To the ad, it’s an F. As others have opined, bold faced lies throughout the ad, plus the thought of Darren Bailey occupying the 2nd floor’s east wing just makes me gag, in general.
“‘Plan to cut taxes…Increase police funding’
Which pig is going to get stuck to fund this idea?”
— He must have found the magic beans.
I’ve been wondering where they’ve been.
And I get that it’s early, but how could you not make this a contrast piece? Obviously it’ll be him or Irvin so why not try and define Irvin rather than just oddly say Bailey’s the only Republican. Money will be an issue and this is 400k that now cannot be spent defining his biggest rival.
From a rating perspective I would give it a C. Obviously Bailey’s message resonates with the hardcore MAGA crowd. But it doesn’t necessarily differentiate him from his primary opponents who are delivering a very similar message, with perhaps the exception of Irvin. Bailey’s goal at this point should be on differentiating himself from Rabine and Sullivan. This ad doesn’t really do that. And if Bailey is fortunate enough to emerge victorious in the primary, he will do so by burnishing his Trump credentials which have been incredibly unpopular in the state as a whole.
Why? 1) The ad is so low budget even Dan Proft is probably shaking his head.
2) If any news organization cares to fact check it, he’s gonna get a pants-on-fire. He has voted to raise taxes. 17 times. He also didn’t “win” his lawsuit against Pritzker. He lost.
3) You’re spending $400,000 of your VERY limited campaign budget on THIS?!
B+ for the primary. Hits some of the right Downstate, rural Republican buttons, but includes a couple dog whistles, which won’t help in General.
But it raises a question, how would you define a “Real Republican” in Illinois today? His definition of a true conservative Republican historically has been a loser in the Illinois General Election. Thompson, Edgar and Ryan were winners but I don’t think they meet Bailey’s definition of a “Real Republican.” Too bad.
C. It’s a replacement-level introductory ad, but not how I would spend $400,000 right now. With $4 million you might break through to voters, but a smaller buy needs a riskier message to compensate. Irvin’s ads are both more attention-grabbing and more ubiquitous.
Honestly the companion statement is a better script than the actual ad. “Republicans deserve a nominee who is actually a Republican” would have a stronger bite for viewers and more of a free media multiplier.
If one thinks this type of ad gets a majority of voters to vote Bailey over Pritzker in November, midterm slump or not, it’s this type of ad in Illinois come November that will sink the GOP up and down the ballot with Bailey as the nominee.
But, “one race at a time”, and no matter what, The Apostle Darren Bailey is who he is, might as well go full Apostle
Pretty terrible. Low quality, nothing stands out and it doesn’t make a personal connection. I would give it a D…if he spoke I would give it an F but at least they didn’t go that far.
Darren HAS A PLAN to cut taxes,(my caps), he says in the ad.
So I went to the website. Here’s what it had to say,
“ As Governor, he will work to lower both property and income taxes.” So the plan boils down to making an effort.
D, as in Darren. Sullivan was too specific, and needs an editor. Darren is too mushy and vague. Can’t wait to see these guys either in a debate, or facing a knowledgeable steakhouse press corps. Oops, statehouse.
B+
The ad does an excellent job reinforcing his campaign’s position in a crowded primary and makes a good effort to distinguish himself from the rest of the clown car occupants.
The biggest question I have is why is he bragging about being a 3rd generation farmer? If it’s not a century farm or you’re not at least a 5th generation farmer I think you should just leave that detail out. That’s going to stick in the craw of other farmers. I do, however, appreciate that he didn’t call himself a family farmer since he’s operating a massive agribusiness and not a family farm.
=The goal is likely to appeal to ~37% of the GOP electorate, who aren’t too concerned about facts or honesty.=
I would agree. But Bailey has lots of competition there. So setting aside any personal feelings towards Bailey, his politics, and policies, what about this ad says “choose me” over his direct competition? I’m not seeing much. With limited resources Bailey has to make every dollar count. You can’t take on Pritzker and Madigan without beating Rabine and Sullivan. And this ad doesn’t seem to move the needle much in doing that. If one of those three can’t emerge from the pack Irvin will likely win the nomination by default.
- Huh? - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:16 pm:
“plan to cut taxes…Increase police funding”
Which pig is going to get stuck to fund this idea?
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:20 pm:
=== Honesty ===
Honesty, honesty, I can’t stop laughing at his gall to claim he values honesty.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:21 pm:
Attention GOP Primary Voters: There is only one true conservative candidate in the race for Governor.
It’s just a shame that he only has $400K for this winning message.
- Lake Villa Township - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:21 pm:
Darren Bailey thinks there was voter fraud in the Du Quoin fair corn poll… D.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:21 pm:
Sorry, A+.
- Soccermom - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:22 pm:
This is one heck of a word salad: State Senator Darren Bailey launched a nearly $400,000 TV ad campaign touting proven conservative of standing up and fighting with parents and students and against the failed establishment in Springfield.
Not to mention — I was brought to believe that it’s not good to fight with parents.
- H-W - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:23 pm:
Grade = F (Lying in plain sight)
=Sued Gov. Pritzker and won, to keep Illinois open=
Lie. His lawsuit had nothing to do with Illinois, nor “keeping it open.” He sued, and got a restraining order that allowed him to not wear a mask, but did not affect any other Illinoisans.
You cannot reward baldfaced lies.
- paradox - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:25 pm:
For a GOP primary ad it earns a B+/A- in my book. Obviously, a lot of it greatly stretches the truth or is outright lies but don’t really think that matters to the people who he’s trying to reach with this.
It’s well-produced, plays the right notes to the base, and is better than any ad I’ve seen from the GOP field outside of some of the Irvin spots.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:27 pm:
Rated B, nicely done and professional. Tamer than I would think and more mainstream. Bailey paid probably way more patriot dues than most if not all the other candidates. He is the only true conservative, so to speak. Irvin was a liberal just the other day.
- Pundent - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:30 pm:
Someone might want to point out to Darren that baseless claims of voter fraud could get you charged with a felony. Hard to keep Illinois open from inside of a jail cell.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-judge-trump-and-lawyer-john-eastman-likely-committed-crimes-in-attempt-to-overturn-election-190219092.html
- The Dude Abides - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:33 pm:
Well he’s embracing the Trump voter fraud lie. For that he’s earned a D. A lot of what he says will resonate with the downstate GOP base. Don’t think it will influence the collar county women he would need to get elected.
- levivotedforjudy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:33 pm:
I have to give it an “A” because he understands his first goal is to win the primary. It goes directly to potential GOP voters. The Irvin camp needs to realize this. My money is still on JB vs. Bailey in the General.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:35 pm:
B-
I rated it on how well it will play with the base. Plenty of trigger words, even a “Because Madigan.” Downstate GOPers eat that stuff up.
I don’t see it swaying many Independents. Not enough “beef,” so to speak.
- Truthiness - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:35 pm:
C+. His TikTok is better
- gfalkes - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:41 pm:
so is the film of devore an inkind contribution?
- Bruce( no not him) - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:44 pm:
I give it a B
It appeals to the target audience, which is the whole point.
Won’t change my mind, but I’m not his audience.
- Osborne Smith III - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
Who is the LEO at the :21 mark and are they appearing in footage being used for a political campaign ad on taxpayer time?
To the ad, it’s an F. As others have opined, bold faced lies throughout the ad, plus the thought of Darren Bailey occupying the 2nd floor’s east wing just makes me gag, in general.
- SpiDem - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
For what he needs to do right now — which is position himself to win the GOP base downstate, its a solid A. All the right messages and visuals.
- Keyrock - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
“‘Plan to cut taxes…Increase police funding’
Which pig is going to get stuck to fund this idea?”
— He must have found the magic beans.
I’ve been wondering where they’ve been.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:49 pm:
Very solid and strong “B”
It’s almost an “A”, the DGA will fix and tweak their ad to get where this is light.
It covers all the right themes;
Leadership, among with “fightin’, ‘faith’, and phony”, and let’s not forget fake with voter fraud.
It plays to its intended to appeal to for maximum impact, “the base”… old, angry, white and rural… and crime thrown in to bind it all.
It’s a good ad for its intent
“B”
- SWSider - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:50 pm:
Any details in the buy? 400k statewide would be nothing.
- SWSider - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:52 pm:
And I get that it’s early, but how could you not make this a contrast piece? Obviously it’ll be him or Irvin so why not try and define Irvin rather than just oddly say Bailey’s the only Republican. Money will be an issue and this is 400k that now cannot be spent defining his biggest rival.
- Pundent - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:55 pm:
From a rating perspective I would give it a C. Obviously Bailey’s message resonates with the hardcore MAGA crowd. But it doesn’t necessarily differentiate him from his primary opponents who are delivering a very similar message, with perhaps the exception of Irvin. Bailey’s goal at this point should be on differentiating himself from Rabine and Sullivan. This ad doesn’t really do that. And if Bailey is fortunate enough to emerge victorious in the primary, he will do so by burnishing his Trump credentials which have been incredibly unpopular in the state as a whole.
- well... - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:55 pm:
The grade is F
Why? 1) The ad is so low budget even Dan Proft is probably shaking his head.
2) If any news organization cares to fact check it, he’s gonna get a pants-on-fire. He has voted to raise taxes. 17 times. He also didn’t “win” his lawsuit against Pritzker. He lost.
3) You’re spending $400,000 of your VERY limited campaign budget on THIS?!
- CCrider - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 1:59 pm:
ok, i will bit, what is he doing to prevent voter fraud?
- Suburbanon - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:01 pm:
B+ for the primary. Hits some of the right Downstate, rural Republican buttons, but includes a couple dog whistles, which won’t help in General.
But it raises a question, how would you define a “Real Republican” in Illinois today? His definition of a true conservative Republican historically has been a loser in the Illinois General Election. Thompson, Edgar and Ryan were winners but I don’t think they meet Bailey’s definition of a “Real Republican.” Too bad.
- vern - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:03 pm:
C. It’s a replacement-level introductory ad, but not how I would spend $400,000 right now. With $4 million you might break through to voters, but a smaller buy needs a riskier message to compensate. Irvin’s ads are both more attention-grabbing and more ubiquitous.
Honestly the companion statement is a better script than the actual ad. “Republicans deserve a nominee who is actually a Republican” would have a stronger bite for viewers and more of a free media multiplier.
- Jibba - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:03 pm:
B or B+ for his current need, which is to solidify the base. And frankly it isn’t really that offensive for the general. Lots of corn and fluff.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:06 pm:
Yep.
If one thinks this type of ad gets a majority of voters to vote Bailey over Pritzker in November, midterm slump or not, it’s this type of ad in Illinois come November that will sink the GOP up and down the ballot with Bailey as the nominee.
But, “one race at a time”, and no matter what, The Apostle Darren Bailey is who he is, might as well go full Apostle
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:08 pm:
===offensive===
Pushing the Big Lie is quite offensive to honesty.
It works in the primary, the general it gets zero crossovers, the Big Lie isn’t like a wish-washy policy prong.
- Raising Kane - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:18 pm:
Pretty terrible. Low quality, nothing stands out and it doesn’t make a personal connection. I would give it a D…if he spoke I would give it an F but at least they didn’t go that far.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:18 pm:
F. Voted against taxes in Springfield, but raised them every opportunity on the school board.
- Langhorne - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:22 pm:
Darren HAS A PLAN to cut taxes,(my caps), he says in the ad.
So I went to the website. Here’s what it had to say,
“ As Governor, he will work to lower both property and income taxes.” So the plan boils down to making an effort.
D, as in Darren. Sullivan was too specific, and needs an editor. Darren is too mushy and vague. Can’t wait to see these guys either in a debate, or facing a knowledgeable steakhouse press corps. Oops, statehouse.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:24 pm:
I’d call it a strong B. The production values are a little low, but the message is right on for the voters he’s courting.
- Club J - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
I’ll give it a D because he didn’t start with “Hello friends”. He did end with “Join our movement”. There’s a message there.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:27 pm:
The goal is likely to appeal to ~37% of the GOP electorate, who aren’t too concerned about facts or honesty.
If you’re hoping for a “fact-check”, Bailey will want that too, it reinforces the idea of “attacking ‘Merica”
Odds are most here aren’t his target.
Which campaign wants to go after Bailey for his thoughts, in this primary, risking the ire of The Base?
- Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:29 pm:
D rating
On the plus side, there’s a voiceover but there’s also DeVore.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:35 pm:
B+
The ad does an excellent job reinforcing his campaign’s position in a crowded primary and makes a good effort to distinguish himself from the rest of the clown car occupants.
The biggest question I have is why is he bragging about being a 3rd generation farmer? If it’s not a century farm or you’re not at least a 5th generation farmer I think you should just leave that detail out. That’s going to stick in the craw of other farmers. I do, however, appreciate that he didn’t call himself a family farmer since he’s operating a massive agribusiness and not a family farm.
- Pundent - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 3:05 pm:
=The goal is likely to appeal to ~37% of the GOP electorate, who aren’t too concerned about facts or honesty.=
I would agree. But Bailey has lots of competition there. So setting aside any personal feelings towards Bailey, his politics, and policies, what about this ad says “choose me” over his direct competition? I’m not seeing much. With limited resources Bailey has to make every dollar count. You can’t take on Pritzker and Madigan without beating Rabine and Sullivan. And this ad doesn’t seem to move the needle much in doing that. If one of those three can’t emerge from the pack Irvin will likely win the nomination by default.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 3:13 pm:
=== But Bailey has lots of competition there===
Schimpf isn’t in the mix, Rabine will go full Q with his Crew, and Trump bona fides, Sullivan is a word salad.
Bailey wants the “south of Springfield” types that are “E”-Van-Gel-Eye-Cals… it’s his own lane there.
The virtual “tent revivals” on Facebook is where he’s mining his ~37%… and in the South.
- Lt Guv - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 3:15 pm:
Won what? Pants on fire.
- Demoralized - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 3:34 pm:
It’s a good ad if you take into consideration the audience it is targeting. I still give it a C though for it’s lies.
- Quincy - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 4:27 pm:
Trump supporter LOSER
- MisterJayEm - Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 4:36 pm:
“Your rating?”
Four Pinocchios
– MrJM
- Serious Question - Wednesday, Mar 30, 22 @ 11:47 am:
Does Bailey have a neck? Seems like it’s just shoulders and head. Or is he always shrugging.