* Greg Hinz…

It may be the last big gush of money before the numbers shift, but state of Illinois tax revenues absolutely soared last month compared to a year ago.

Personal income tax receipts in April, still the state’s largest tax-paying month, hit $5.440 billion, up 99.9% from the $2.721 billion collected in April 2021.

Corporate income tax growth was also peppy, soaring 63.5%, up from $1.13 billion a year ago to $1.847 billion now.

For the year to date—Illinois’ fiscal year ends June 30—individual income tax receipts are up $3.91 billion, or 18.8%, and corporate income taxes are up $1.973 billion, or 56.5%.

* The numbers are from the latest COGFA report. Some caution is advised…

The negative aspect of this robust performance of income tax receipts in FY 2022 is that it will be extremely difficult to repeat. Furthermore, there are several factors that could potentially limit income tax revenue growth entering into FY 2023, including the impact of rising inflation on the economic activity; the lack of repeated federal stimulus dollars; the potential economic impact of additional COVID-19 variants; and the possible fallout of continued geopolitical uncertainty involving Russia and the Ukraine. The Commission has kept these potential mitigating factors in mind when projecting next fiscal year’s revenue estimates. This is why stagnant to negative growth is expected in FY 2023 from income tax related sources, despite the sensational performance of tax receipts in FY 2022. For these reasons, it would not be surprising to see another swing in April receipts in 2023, this time in the negative direction, especially when considering the extraordinary base to which it will be compared.

* Year to date…

With two months of the fiscal year remaining, overall base receipts are up an astonishing $5.965 billion. Much of this growth is due to personal income taxes being up $3.910 billion, or $3.284 billion on a net basis. However, because next month’s personal income tax revenues will be compared to May 2021 figures containing delayed final payments, a notable revenue reduction in May 2022 revenues should be anticipated. Therefore, it will not be until May’s revenues are included that a more “apples to apples” comparison of year-to-date fiscal year totals of personal tax receipts can be made. Last year’s April to May tax deadline delay did not impact corporate income tax receipts. This makes the corporate income tax growth of $1.973 billion (or $1.529 billion net) thru April even more impressive, especially when considering FY 2022 totals are being compared to FY 2021 receipts that benefitted from two sets of final tax payments.

Sales tax receipts continue to improve on its stellar year, now up $852 million on a net basis. The remaining State tax revenue sources are down a combined $22 million thru April. Overall transfers continue to rise above last year’s levels and are now up $472 million. A $39 million reduction in refund fund transfers has been offset by increases in other areas, including $354 million in gains from miscellaneous transfers; $121 million from the return of casino transfers and related proceeds; and $36 million in lottery transfer increases.

Federal sources, when not including the revenues from the ARPA Reimbursement for Essential Government Services, are $150 million below last year’s levels with two months of the fiscal year remaining. [If the $439 million of ARPA money that has been receipted in FY 2022 is included, total federal sources are up $289 million].