* Here we go…
* Story…
A new WGN-TV/The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey of likely GOP primary voters shows Irvin leading the field with 24.1% support, followed by Bailey with 19.8%. […]
The gubernatorial primary also has an education divide: Irvin leads Bailey among those polled with college or postgraduate degrees 30% to 17%. Bailey leads Irvin among those without a college degree 23% to 18%. […]
Forty percent of Republican primary voters say abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest and when the woman’s life is endangered. Eighteen percent say it should be illegal in all cases and 15% say it should be legal up to 20 weeks. Another 15% say legal in all cases and 13% say legal up to six weeks of pregnancy.
Spend that kind of money and only leading in a reputable poll by 4 points? Not great.
* More at the link, but here’s something…
Not great for Rodney Davis, and Irvin better hope Trump doesn’t go with Bailey.
* More…
Crime doesn’t poll as high as one would think.
* The US Senate primary is wide open…
* Methodology…
The Emerson College Polling Illinois poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 6-8, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk.
…Adding… Bailey campaign…
This polling confirms what most Illinoisans have known for months; this primary election is a two-person race for the heart and soul of our Republican Party. The choice is clear between a conservative Republican like Darren Bailey and a career Democrat like Irvin. Darren Bailey has stood up for working families and taxpayers from the beginning, and Richard Irvin is a Pritzker-hugging, basement hiding puppet of the political elites who is afraid to debate Darren Bailey. Our grassroots movement will continue to roll as our campaign begins to punch back and set the record straight. We’re ready for the fight. Darren Bailey will win this primary and defeat Pritzker in November.
…Adding… Irvin campaign…
JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.
- Nick - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:16 pm:
Irvin has the personality of a pancake and voters can tell.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:16 pm:
Trump could be a difference in this primary.
Proft going after Irvin could make a sinking difference.
“What if” it’s Rabine who gets the coveted Trump endorsement?
- Roadrager - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:17 pm:
Burn those stacks, Kenny, burn those stacks. If we can’t get you to pay your fair share of taxes here, at least we can watch you spend it to embarrass yourself.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:17 pm:
If this poll is even remotely accurate…those suburban numbers are baaaad for Irvin. He should be doubling Bailey or more given the effort and the fact that he is the mayor of Aurora a huge suburb and second largest city in Illinois.
I am guessing the latest presser didn’t help Irvin either.
- Annonin' - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:19 pm:
“Crime doesn’t poll as high as one would think.”
but aren’t they polling GOPie primary voters? They seldom go where the crime is so “what me worry”
Plus what kinda crime we talkin’about Capt. Fax?
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:19 pm:
“Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.”
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:22 pm:
==Spend that kind of money and only leading in a reputable poll by 4 points? Not great.==
A lead is a lead, and other polls have certainly shown bigger ones.
But primaries are very fluid, and a smart campaign would certainly see some warning signs in this poll.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:24 pm:
===A lead is a lead, and other polls have certainly shown bigger ones.
But primaries are very fluid, and a smart campaign would certainly see some warning signs in this poll.===
Concur.
That’s why if Irvin can get to 34-37% and do better in the ‘burbs… it’s still really lousy news, spending $45 million, now let’s see if Irvin can break 30% first.
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:25 pm:
Could Proft finally win a statewide primary? Uncle Dick might really turn the spigot back on if that’s the case, I’m thrilled for him.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:25 pm:
==I am guessing the latest presser didn’t help Irvin either. ==
I don’t think the timing quite works for that event to be much of a factor, tho maybe his “no press is good press” routine had an effect.
- Sox Fan - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:28 pm:
Will republicans flip out when bailey wins 101 out of 102 counties and still loses, or will that be reserved for the general?
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:29 pm:
== it’s still really lousy news==
I would argue…I guess I would argue that Irvin has the time and resources to address the problems that this poll indicates, and he can do it from a position of relative strength. So it depends on what he does next, but it could, it *could* end up being a good thing for him.
Tho, man. Long term, it’s just not great for ILGOP that their nominee will barely clear 1/3rd of the electorate.
- Pundent - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:29 pm:
If Bailey could convince Rabine and/or Sullivan to drop out things could get very interesting. He would be better served courting those voters vs. Irvin supporters anyway. He should be using this poll to underscore the point that neither Rabine or Sullivan can win.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:29 pm:
“JB Pritzker and his allies are funding Darren Bailey’s campaign because they know that billionaire Ken Griffin dba Richard Irvin is Pritzker’s greatest threat in November.”
Fixed it.
– MrJM
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:32 pm:
Man, Irvin’s response is lame.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:32 pm:
===it’s just not great for ILGOP that their nominee will barely clear 1/3rd of the electorate.===
It’s more than that. Much more.
It’s 1/3 of his own party.
Whomever is the nominee, they have TWO contradictory things to do come July;
Solidify that GOP vote, they won’t have a majority to start from…
… appeal to moderates and indies, ensure they (the nominee) aren’t scary, but a good choice.
Yep. “One race at a time”.
- Matty - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:33 pm:
Who the heck is Max Solomon? Should I have at least heard his name previously?
- That Senate poll - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:34 pm:
The Senate poll is hilarious. Not sure I’ve ever seen a poll this close to a primary where the leader was at 6.8%. I mean I get it because the race isn’t getting an ounce of coverage, but still that’s astonishing - nobody can even “break out” with 10 percent.
- Eastern Bloc Gulag - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:37 pm:
Undecided is blowing the other two away. Could be a wild ride for the next few weeks…
- Pundent - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:38 pm:
With almost 37% undecided that potential Trump endorsement also looms large. And I think I can say with a high degree of certainty that he won’t be backing Richard Irvin.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:40 pm:
“Who the heck is Max Solomon? Should I have at least heard his name previously?”
No.
– MrJM
- macombward bound - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:42 pm:
@Rich Miller, can you share with us how much money has been spent on negative ads against Irvin by the DGA and Dan Proft so far and over what period of time? It would be helpful to have a complete view of the race dynamics. Irvin v. Bailey spending is not a real comparison.
- Montrose - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:43 pm:
Irvin’s response points to might well be his fatal flaw - running in the general before he gets out of the primary.
I know you want to focus on Pritzker, but you have not won the chance to run against him yet. His name won’t be on the primary ballot your voters are pulling next month. This is the type of poll (along with Uihlein’s money) Bailey’s camp can run to Trump with to show he is worth throwing his weight behind. And you have done nothing to tell Republican voters why they shouldn’t back Bailey.
Dude, this isn’t looking good for you and it’s a mess of your own making.
- Just Another Anon - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
@Arsenal
He’s got a bit of a crowded field, though $$$ makes up for late entry and a crowded field. He, Rabine and Sullivan are effectively carving up the Collar Counties vote and positioning to court moderate and independent voters. The only one besides Bailey and Irvin really working downstate is Sullivan and his foothold there impedes Irvin.
I’d like to see the downballot polling for regional popularity. I think Bailey has pretty much capped out in the Suburban/Urban market and unless he gets on the air up in the suburbs, he’s going to be a relatively close second. Bailey’s grassroots are going to stick with him no matter what. Irvin needs to capitalize on the Rabine/Sullivan downstaters and the undecideds to pull his numbers up downstate. Bailey needs to do the same in the Collars and City. I think Bailey’s got the more challenging task.
- Gov's primary - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
The obvious danger for Bailey is that this is close to his ceiling while it’s closer to Irvin’s floor. To prevent this Bailey needs to get as many of the other candidates to drop out, pick up most of their supporters, and fight like heck to get close to a draw with the currently undecided vote. Otherwise, if the undecided voters are the sorts who vote based on TV ad bombardments, and the other candidates stay in, what we’re looking at is what I originally posited - Bailey has little room to grow while Irvin has lots.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:45 pm:
===…can you share with us how much money has been spent on negative ads against Irvin by the DGA and Dan Proft so far and over what period of time?===
Head over to the Illinois state board of elections, also check on DGA and their findings.
Let us know what you find.
- Jibba - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:46 pm:
Trump can certainly be a kingmaker in that senate race if he wants to improve his batting average.
- fs - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:47 pm:
The Trump impact is interesting when you look at the undecideds. 45% of undecideds say that a Trump endorsement would make them less like to vote for that candidate, while only 34% of undecideds say it would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Not the result I would’ve expected in a Republican primary.
- B Team - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:51 pm:
Hmm Bailey has been running for Governor for a little over two years and can’t seem to be the front runner yet? That’s a problem for him, he must have a ceiling of support.
- fs - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:51 pm:
Nevermind, I might’ve read that wrong.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:53 pm:
===Man, Irvin’s response is lame.===
Let him finish.
- Dance Band on the Titanic - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:54 pm:
Not sure how Irvin is ahead in the suburbs. He has zero presence in the area around me. I have yet to talk to anyone who is voting for him. I have not seen a single Irvin yard sign, which is odd when compared to the number of Bailey, Rabine and Sullivan signs, all of which have been well represented on local lawns since late March.
- macombward bound - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 3:57 pm:
===Let us know what you find.===
Looks like $8 million over last few weeks. Merits an update by @Rich Miller.
So after $8 million in negative ads, in a poll that has Sullivan tied with Rabine (anybody believe that - does the Sullivan campaign, which must have a large polling budget, believe that’s true given Rabine has spent no money?), Irvin still leading outside the margin (with a separate poll showing a larger spread).
What koolaid are y’all drinking???
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:01 pm:
=== What koolaid are y’all drinking???===
Is that directed at… clouds?
=== ===Man, Irvin’s response is lame.===
Let him finish.===
- 47th Ward -
I’d be remiss, this week, you’ve been “en fuego”
- Roadrager - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:01 pm:
=47th Ward=
Please go to the courtesy desk to collect your prize.
- koolaid - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:02 pm:
Those aren’t the only polls out there. Mary Ann posted one and then deleted it that also had the Irvin with a much smaller lead than he should have (I think she deleted because her source didn’t want the pollster info out there). If you’re spending Irvin money, you should be double digits ahead and with just weeks before early voting there should probably be less undecided voters after they’ve heard $15 million dollars of your message.
- JoanP - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:02 pm:
@Matty -
Google is your friend: https://www.maxsolomon.org/
He’s just another Republican who is a “strong advocate for individual choice” in health care - except, of course, in the case of abortion.
- Ben Tre - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:03 pm:
Fascinating that economy is far and away the most important issue to R primary voters, given how much conservative airtime is devoted to crime, abortion, illegal immigrants, critical race theory, etc.
- Anyone Remember - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:04 pm:
Between Trump & Alito, this isn’t that big a surprise.
- fs - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:06 pm:
== To prevent this Bailey needs to get as many of the other candidates to drop out, pick up most of their supporters, and fight like heck to get close to a draw with the currently undecided vote. ==
The problem with that thinking is at least twofold: (1) while behind, Bailey is still under 20% with Rabine and Sullivan at least within shouting distance. Tough to tell someone to drop out when they have money and you’re not doing a whole lot better than they are; and (2) there’s absolutely no guarantee that their voters go with Bailey over Irvin. Especially in the city and suburbs.
A month is a long time, especially as the weather warms up. That can have both good and bad consequences for issues people care about.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:08 pm:
“If you’re spending Irvin money, you should be double digits ahead”
All those millions spent against a campaign operation the quality of Bailey’s, and this is a result.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:09 pm:
“those suburban numbers are baaaad for Irvin”
Bailey has the evangelical and anti-mask crowd locked up without needing to spend a dime. There are an astonishingly large number of them in the suburbs, with the concentration increasing to maximum republican voter support at the distance of the exurbs - which still contain a significant population of the state.
Irvin *might* do better in Aurora, but in the rest of the suburban areas I imagine Bailey is a lot closer than people are expecting.
Bailey might not have a well funded campaign, but the efficiency of what he is doing with what he has is pretty interesting. He has had far more face time at political events in suburban areas than Irvin has, and that difference may be at the root of what these polls are starting to hint at, in how close Irvin and Bailey are to each other.
- TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:09 pm:
anonymous at 4:09 is me.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:12 pm:
While Mr. Worst Nightmare is leading Bailey on handling crime, Mr. I am a Farmer leads in handling the economy??
I guess if you look at how much money each candidate has spent and where they are in the polls, then it kinda makes sense.
- Lake Villa Township - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:20 pm:
Bobby Piton in 2nd place for the senate race, 72% undecided there, yikes for the GOP…
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:23 pm:
==The obvious danger for Bailey is that this is close to his ceiling while it’s closer to Irvin’s floor.==
I’m not sure we know either one of those things.
==So after $8 million in negative ads==
And how much has Irvin spent? We heard he’d basically used all of the first round of Griffin green, so roughly double that amount? And all of that explicitly said “vote for Irvin”. The Proft/DGA ads do not state a preference.
== in a poll that has Sullivan tied with Rabine (anybody believe that==
I don’t really have a good reason to disbelieve it. They’re both closer to zero than to anything substantial, so it’s not like they have a ton of room to separate themselves.
==which must have a large polling budget==
Must it?
==Irvin still leading outside the margin (with a separate poll showing a larger spread).==
That’s not how the MOE works. The MOE is applied to each number. So Irvin is “probably” at 24%, but he may be at 27% or 21%, or anything in between. And Bailey is “probably” at 20%, but could be at 23% or 17%, or anything in between.
You don’t want to call it a statistical tie, but for Irvin to have spent about double on a “vote Irvin” message what his opponents have spent on a “Don’t vote Irvin” message, for Irvin to be up only 4, with 3/4 of the electorate not voting for him…
It’s dicey. I’d rather be him than anyone else, and he has everything he needs to address the problems here, but it’s dicey.
- JT11505 - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:28 pm:
Since I don’t think Trump actually cares who wins the primary, it wouldn’t surprise me if his endorsement might be “encouraged” by a little Griffin largesse coming his way.
- Amalia - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:31 pm:
wow. money doesn’t buy much of a margin. trump factor looming.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:32 pm:
==Let him finish. ==
That’s just top shelf work right there.
- Thomas Paine - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 4:55 pm:
I am glad I am not the guy who has been telling Grffin that Irvin is up 10-12 points and now has to explain this to the guy writing the checks.
The poll, BTW, was before the disasterous press conference.
Are you finished yet?
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:01 pm:
“Irvin *might* do better in Aurora, but in the rest of the suburban areas I imagine Bailey is a lot closer than people are expecting.”
Plus and some of Illinois’s suburban areas are downstate.
– MrJM
- Real - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:03 pm:
Notice the Irvin camp did not dispute the accuracy of the poll.. so even they know it’s very close.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:05 pm:
That Senate poll - woof. Looking like a battle to see which whacked-out albatross gets attached to the ticket.
- Roadrager - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:09 pm:
So Matt Dubiel, who used to pal around with convicted fraudster Kevin Trudeau and [unpublishable descriptor] Alex Jones, and once ran a phony crowdfunding effort to “buy” 97.9 The Loop, is running for the dang United States Senate now? One day, the hustle will catch up with him.
- macombward bound - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:11 pm:
===That’s not how the MOE works.===
Actually, it is. LOL.
- Big Dipper - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:19 pm:
Didn’t Griffin waste a lot of money on Rauner’s reelection campaign? When your candidates are unpalatable to voters money only goes so far.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:24 pm:
Keep this in mind with the “concern” Griffin *should* have about money.
This $45 million?
It’s literally fun money, used to buy exotic things…
===Ken Griffin, billionaire CEO of hedge fund Citadel, paid $43.2 million for a first-edition copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction.===
Buy. Exotic. Things.
- Langhorne - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:27 pm:
Most important issue, economy…..54%
Best on economy…..Bailey 21.6%, Irvin 20.9%
Suburban….Irvin 24.5%, Bailey 19.6%
I expected Bailey to tank in the suburbs. He is more than holding his own. Doing damn good on the most important issue. Gotta scare Irvin. Trump and anti-Vaxxers may be quietly significant, as was pointed out.
- Lake Villa Township - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:28 pm:
Langhorne I think Rabine is going to eat into Irvin a ton in the collar counties+cook county panhandle, he’s the only person I see signs for up here in Lake.
- former cubs fan - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:32 pm:
cross tabs are interesting. irvin put lots of money behind ads about how tough he is on crime when he thought crime would be the top polling issue. with daily having the slight edge on being better at handling the economy (HUH?), i would expect to see lots of irvin ads about how economy bona fides.
- Daltown38 - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:37 pm:
To those who say Bailey can’t win the general…never say never. I am shocked he is this close to Irvin, especially in the suburbs.
- jimbo - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 5:40 pm:
I’m in and about all of DuPage and Aurora. I have never seen so few signs for any of the candidates.
You wouldn’t know there is a primary coming up if it weren’t for the direct mailers - each of which says basically “The other guy(s) is a Dem but I’m not”
- Big Dipper - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 6:22 pm:
Conservatives tend to have a low opinion of criminal defense attorneys and Irvin was one three times as long as he was a prosecutor.
- Telly - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 8:02 pm:
Disappointing for Irvin, but the ROI for Sullivan might be worse.
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 8:41 pm:
A house on my way to work had a Rabine sign in February, a Bailey sign in March and April, and now Solomon. Up until reading this post, I thought Solomon was a candidate in a down ballot or local race.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 8:50 pm:
==Actually, it is. LOL. ==
Well, Pew Research says otherwise (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/).
So…gee, tough call. The truth, as backed up by evidence…
Or a lie, spoken by someone so desperate to spin for Richie Irvin that he ignores all the money he spent, and in so desperate of a need to touch grass that he thinks he can persuade someone by laughing at them.
Tough call, tough call.
Tell ya what, as someone who wants to see JB Pritzker re-elected, let me just say that I hope you keep on doing what you’re doing here, lol.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 8:52 pm:
==Notice the Irvin camp did not dispute the accuracy of the poll.. so even they know it’s very close. ==
Eh. If they know what’s good for them, they’ll happily tell everyone the race is close and they need your money/time, regardless of what their internals say.
- G'Kar - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 8:59 pm:
I don’t know if a poll like this would be possible, but I think it would be interesting to ask independents the question if they would be more or less will to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump.
- CubsFan16 - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 9:57 pm:
The 36% undecided will vote for who they know, which will benefit Irvin disproportionately.
- Real - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 10:39 pm:
After millions in campaign ads it sounds like the undecided have heard of and rejected Irvin. Most of whom who may have never heard of Bailey yet.
- McHenry Candidate Forum - Wednesday, May 11, 22 @ 10:57 pm:
The June 4th Candidate Forum in McHenry County could be critical to those 72% undecideds in the US Senate race (all 7 confirmed campaigns attending)…and all Governor candidates but one are confirmed for attending. Could get interesting with projected couple thousand voters possible in attendance.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, May 12, 22 @ 7:38 am:
===Not the result I would’ve expected in a Republican primary. ===
Because you’re reading it wrong.