Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Irvin on hot seat: Proft has poll showing Bailey lead; Proft’s new TV ad; Pritzker’s new TV ad; Irvin doesn’t recall saying Trump is “bigoted racist”
Proft said on his show this morning that the same pollster had Irvin up by 6 points a few weeks ago. Fabrizio, Lee and Associates is Donald Trump’s pollster.
On May 24th, 8:07 pm. Officers are called to this Aurora marijuana store where police reports say a drunk woman has punched and kicked a security guard. The woman threatens ‘I’m going to call my boyfriend. He’s the mayor of Aurora.’ Minutes later, Richard Irvin arrives. And the official police report says Irvin assured his girlfriend that quote, ‘The charges would be taken care of.’ Richard Irvin, the more we learn the worse it gets.
You know it’s aimed at Republican primary voters because they use the phrase “marijuana store.” /s
But text messages written by Irvin in 2018 during the middle of the Trump presidency, and obtained by WTTW News, appear to show Irvin has very strong feelings about Trump, and they are not positive. The messages offer some insight into aspects of Irvin’s political beliefs his campaign has been reticent to address.
“And I hate Trump too!” Irvin wrote. “He’s an idiot!!!”
Shortly after, Irvin added, “and a bigoted racist.” […]
Irvin then clarifies his position on Trump once again: “And although I don’t hate Trump the man, I do hate what he stands for.”
Well, Jim Niedelman reminded Irvin about the texts and asked “Are you afraid of the consequences that could come with taking a stand against Donald Trump?” Irvin’s response…
Listen, I don’t remember sending those texts since 2018 or 2019. What I can say is, that I disagree with certain parts of that administration. However, you know, I think everybody can agree and I agree wholeheartedly that that administration has done great things for Americans and for America. You know, reducing taxes, making sure we had economic development when he created opportunity zones and employed economic development in areas that need it most. And supporting our men and women of law enforcement.
We’ve used all those tools in the city of Aurora. You know, I have used all those tools in the city of Aurora as mayor, to effectively to help push our city forward. And that’s exactly what JB Pritzker is scared of. He’s scared of someone who’s actually effectively got great results.
And if you compare us, about comparing records, if you compare my record of success to JB Pritzker’s record of failure, there’s nothing to say about it. We have the answer of who the next Governor of the state should be. Which is why he’s spending so much money in a Republican primary to make sure that me as a candidate doesn’t doesn’t face him in the general because he knows that I’ll beat him, and he knows that we’ll change how government works in the state of Illinois and will get us back on track to take our state back.
Please pardon all transcription errors.
* From a candidates’ forum in McHenry County featuring Darren Bailey and Gary Rabine and a surrogate for Paul Schimpf…
Irvin seemed to receive the most criticism from the other candidates. Bailey reiterated recent barbs directed at Irvin, calling him a “corrupt Democrat.” Solomon said any of the Republican candidates, minus Irvin, would make a good governor.
The candidates’ thoughts on immigration was discussed seemingly more than any other topic, covering almost half of the entire forum. Candidates expressed an interest in allowing counties to continue to detain immigrants in partnership with the Immigration Customs Enforcement agency, and also ending sanctuary cities.
McHenry County in particular had one such contract with ICE, until a state law required the county to release its detainees and cancel the agreement.
Bailey, Rabine and Solomon all expressed support in building a wall at the country’s southern border.
54 Comments
- here we go again - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:20 pm:
I listened to the Jim Niedelman show (4 the Record) yesterday after Face the Nation in the Quad Cities. Mr. Irvin, when asked about the no-bid contract he awarded to his Army friend, said, “That’s conspiracy theory.”
He was on defense most of the interview, dodging questions, failing to answer whether he voted for Trump, whether he sent those texts.
Come on, if you’re a candidate for Governor step up to the plate and own these matters. Be honest. Niedelman, by the way, is one of the most aggressive reporters downstate. He called Irvin on the carpet for not answering his questions.
==Listen, I don’t remember sending those texts since 2018 or 2019.==
“You need to focus more on the anti-Trump texts I didn’t send.”
==we’ll change how government works in the state of Illinois and will get us back on track to take our state back==
Oh good, a Turnaround Agenda to turn things around from the turnaround the current governor has been executing from the previous Turnaround Agenda that sent our state into a ditch. Alexa, play “Circles” by Soul Coughing.
I really hope Darren Bailey isn’t peaking too early. I’ve said all along that he was going to be the nominee but it’s too soon for Mayor Richard Griffin to be doing so poorly.
I’m not happy with the Republican Party but I am glad this Democrat may not be our nominee, despite all that money. His integrity issues rival Trump, imho.
=Will the GOP finally nominate a conservative reformer? =
Not this election cycle.
=JB Pritzker’s record of failure=
Gimmick free balanced budget, paying bills, bond rating improvements. Yeah, he stinks. /s
Meanwhile, Irv’s classy lady former gf has a tussle at a weed store (which is strange because it usually mellows people) and then calls for Irv to come and make it all go away? Yeah, big time success. /s
=Bailey, Rabine and Solomon all expressed support in building a wall at the country’s southern border.=
SO they are running for the governor of one of our southern states? Seems strange that they would be campaigning here.
I’m a little bit surprised nobody has used the spelling of that word with an ‘h’ in it yet.
“building a wall at the country’s southern border.”
Great. But what wildlife management practices are they going to use at the Canadian border where it runs through forested areas? That’s a critical decision I need to know about when deciding who to vote for governor of…(checks notes) Illinois.
These guys will do *anything* to not talk about what their actual job would be as governor of the state of Illinois.
Jesse Sullivan has spent about the same amount as Darren Bailey on TV and his poll numbers continue to be anemic. I’m surprised by that, I thought he would have more appeal.
From what I can see there is an excitement deficit with Irvin. Who is really motivated to go vote for the guy? Can’t say the same about Bailey as he seems to have a base of support that is deeply committed (some might say rabid). I would not be surprised if he wins.
If Uihlein’s poll is based on those text messages that open with, “PATRIOT!” “QUICK GOP STRAW POLL!” etc, then no wonder they show a Bailey lead. Personally, I have trouble believing any numbers backed by the same money that bought a 250,000 population drop. (Oh wait, that would discredit most GOP gov hopefuls.)
As scary as it is: Bailey could still win. I think Irvin’s attack ads on Sullivan and Bailey have backfired and forced some moderate / right-of-center / pro-labor votes into Schimpf’s column. Rabine will still pull votes out of McHenry and Lake. If Trump gets involved…phew.
=== I have trouble believing any numbers backed by the same money ===
It’s a fair instinct but it would be easy for the Irvin campaign to rebut this. They’ve certainly got rolling trackers in the field by now. If they don’t release any numbers this week, I kinda have to believe it’s because they look like these numbers.
-I’m surprised by that, I thought he would have more appeal.-
He stumbled out of the gate with the military thing. Then, to my surprise he turned hardline Christian conservative going all in on social issues. I had him pegged to go the Irvin route and stay mushy on hot button issues and try to appear moderate, but nope he’s tacked way right. I also expect people consider him too young and inexperienced for the state’s top job.
Sully hired a bunch of Glenn Youngkin’s brain trust. That model (saying the quiet part quietly) worked in VA, but lost in PA, and is no longer a viable strategy. Interesting that Irvin is also trying to thread the needle in this primary. Bailey is the only authentic one of the three.
==Maybe he suspects that the source has other oppo==
He knows they do. So does pretty much anyone who lives in or around Aurora - which is probably at least a little bit of the reason Bailey has better numbers in the suburbs than people would have guessed, all else being equal.
The big stuff probably won’t be coming out unless Irvin makes it out of the primary. Mostly because it might actually *help Irvin* with GOP voters in the primary. That said, I don’t completely discount Bailey being Bailey and tossing it out at the last minute because of his insecurities.
In Pennsylvania for that one office in that one primary with those particular candidates. Not saying the Virginia strategy works, just saying it’s difficult to copy stuff in other state primaries.
Irvin and Griffin are finding out what it’s like to be on the receiving side of the GOP fallen assault. It’s not like the Dems who at times hold their punches. Nope, this is bare knuckles no hold bar full on scorched earth. Which is why the party is continuing to shrink.
Bailey’s “movement” shtick has been hard enough to listen to. Add a poll which has him in the lead, and he will be insufferable, from whatever pulpit he has available.
The same pollster who said Trump would win in 2020 says Darren Bailey has a lead. Must be nice to have Uihlein money to blow on fantasy to make them feel better.
True, but I imagine your comment filters have character limits preventing us from listing all of them 0:-)
Slightly off of the post:
Imagine Irvin pulls it off at the top of the slate (not top-of-the-ballot, mind you, since GOP leadership failed to recruit a moderate to run for U.S. Senate). What impact, if any, would that outcome have on Kim v DeVore?
interesting tactic. Where are the crosstabs? Rabine at that name ID is fishy. Seem like this may have been concentrated in a specific county/area. Does anyone trust anything Proft says, anyway? I’ve never voted republican but even I know Proft is as shady as they come.
It’s very shocking that Ken Griffin with all his resources didn’t do his research on Richard Irvin’s pass missteps as mayor of Aurora. I believe the Fabrizio and Lee poll to be true because Mr. Irvin never gives a straight answer about anything. It’s all so odd but it’s up to the voters who they want to lead the GOP. Voters are smarter than we give them credit for.
People are assuming that the DGA is running ads against Irvin because they want Bailey to be the nominee. That might be giving them too much credit. They might have assumed that Irvin would win and so are running ads against him because they want to prevent Irvin from being able to define himself and his campaign in a vacuum or without the influence of the issues that they think are important.
I think the real question for the general election if Irvin wins the primary is whether or not he being their candidate in the general election will suppress turnout of GOP voters, or cause them to otherwise vote 3rd party or just skip the Governor’s race on the ballot.
The big picture for the Illinois GOP at this time is whether or not the future of their party is better or worse with Irvin or Bailey at the mast head. Even if they some how were to win the Governor’s race, they’re not taking a majority in either of the chambers and neither of them will be able to accomplish much in the way of a real agenda unless their agenda is just to do a bad job and try to destroy and undermine what’s left of our state institutions.
I hate to pour any cold water on this and I do think Irvin is losing, but if my math is right, there’s still more than 25% undecided and three weeks left. This is anybody’s race.
Bailey as is, or a severely damaged Irvin. The ads serve both purposes. Both can be had, but the contrast with Bailey and the massive difference in funding makes that the better scenario for JB’s camp.
As I suggested last week, and the week before - Always pay attention to the margin of error associated with the sampling frames.
I guess Irvin is no longer 6 points ahead. I guess different samples from a population get different results, and until one candidate exceeds the margin of error, it is unwise to suggest someone is winning.
I had the same reaction as others here: does this increase the chances of Trump jumping in for Bailey?
Maybe Trump jumps halfway in — says something nice about Bailey without formally endorsing him. That way he takes credit if Bailey wins and can deny blame if he doesn’t.
Wondering if the Tribune’s endorsement of Paul Schimpf will give him a bump?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:39 pm:
This has always been Darren Bailey’s race to lose, to anyone who is a student of game theory.
Give credit to Bailey for being patient about his spending to make sure he had finances for the final stretch.
Griffin blundered badly in picking such a poorly prepared candidate who has so much baggage and then running on crime while ignoring Republicans’ top issues. I get that Griffin’s #1 issue is Crime! But one of the key differences between winning and losing campaigns is that winning campaigns focus on what voters care about while losing campaigns focus on what candidates care about.
Is there time to save it? Maybe. Something huge could happen, like a sex scandal or FBI investigation into Bailey’s emails.
But if this poll is accurate — and I assume Irvin is polling and would be sharing results if they showed him winning — Irvin will not be the nominee.
Nope. Not usually. Any maybe “anybody” is overbroad. But you can absolutely see a path for four of them. Far more likely for Irvin or Bailey, but how many times in American politics have you seen two front-runners beat the living crap out of each other, thus creating a lane for a third more positive candidate. I still say it’s likely Bailey, but plenty of time for that scenario to play itself out.
Well, if Bailey does pull it off he should get no money (other I suppose from Uileihn) for the the general election as he simply cannot win. Hopefully Dan has made enough money from the primary to fund his new place in Naples.
- NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Tuesday, Jun 7, 22 @ 8:42 am:
==or cause them to otherwise vote 3rd party ==
Anyone announced a third party candidacy for Governor yet? I have not found anything on ISBE’s site yet nor have heard any of the Libertarians, Greens, and others announce if they are running anyone this year.
- here we go again - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:20 pm:
I listened to the Jim Niedelman show (4 the Record) yesterday after Face the Nation in the Quad Cities. Mr. Irvin, when asked about the no-bid contract he awarded to his Army friend, said, “That’s conspiracy theory.”
He was on defense most of the interview, dodging questions, failing to answer whether he voted for Trump, whether he sent those texts.
Come on, if you’re a candidate for Governor step up to the plate and own these matters. Be honest. Niedelman, by the way, is one of the most aggressive reporters downstate. He called Irvin on the carpet for not answering his questions.
- Roadrager - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:21 pm:
==Listen, I don’t remember sending those texts since 2018 or 2019.==
“You need to focus more on the anti-Trump texts I didn’t send.”
==we’ll change how government works in the state of Illinois and will get us back on track to take our state back==
Oh good, a Turnaround Agenda to turn things around from the turnaround the current governor has been executing from the previous Turnaround Agenda that sent our state into a ditch. Alexa, play “Circles” by Soul Coughing.
- New Day - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:22 pm:
I really hope Darren Bailey isn’t peaking too early. I’ve said all along that he was going to be the nominee but it’s too soon for Mayor Richard Griffin to be doing so poorly.
- Lurker - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:25 pm:
I’m not happy with the Republican Party but I am glad this Democrat may not be our nominee, despite all that money. His integrity issues rival Trump, imho.
- ZC - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:25 pm:
Yikes. More polls like this, Donald Trump really might decide it’s time to try and up his win-loss endorsement record.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:25 pm:
=Will the GOP finally nominate a conservative reformer? =
Not this election cycle.
=JB Pritzker’s record of failure=
Gimmick free balanced budget, paying bills, bond rating improvements. Yeah, he stinks. /s
Meanwhile, Irv’s classy lady former gf has a tussle at a weed store (which is strange because it usually mellows people) and then calls for Irv to come and make it all go away? Yeah, big time success. /s
=Bailey, Rabine and Solomon all expressed support in building a wall at the country’s southern border.=
SO they are running for the governor of one of our southern states? Seems strange that they would be campaigning here.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:25 pm:
“because they use the phrase “marijuana store.”
I’m a little bit surprised nobody has used the spelling of that word with an ‘h’ in it yet.
“building a wall at the country’s southern border.”
Great. But what wildlife management practices are they going to use at the Canadian border where it runs through forested areas? That’s a critical decision I need to know about when deciding who to vote for governor of…(checks notes) Illinois.
These guys will do *anything* to not talk about what their actual job would be as governor of the state of Illinois.
- Norseman - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:27 pm:
=== I think everybody can agree and I agree wholeheartedly that that administration has done great things for Americans and for America. ===
That would be a (reference to nether regions) no.
As to the polls, meh.
- The Captain - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:28 pm:
Jesse Sullivan has spent about the same amount as Darren Bailey on TV and his poll numbers continue to be anemic. I’m surprised by that, I thought he would have more appeal.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:30 pm:
From what I can see there is an excitement deficit with Irvin. Who is really motivated to go vote for the guy? Can’t say the same about Bailey as he seems to have a base of support that is deeply committed (some might say rabid). I would not be surprised if he wins.
- Dirty Red - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:30 pm:
If Uihlein’s poll is based on those text messages that open with, “PATRIOT!” “QUICK GOP STRAW POLL!” etc, then no wonder they show a Bailey lead. Personally, I have trouble believing any numbers backed by the same money that bought a 250,000 population drop. (Oh wait, that would discredit most GOP gov hopefuls.)
As scary as it is: Bailey could still win. I think Irvin’s attack ads on Sullivan and Bailey have backfired and forced some moderate / right-of-center / pro-labor votes into Schimpf’s column. Rabine will still pull votes out of McHenry and Lake. If Trump gets involved…phew.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:34 pm:
===Oh wait, that would discredit most GOP gov hopefuls===
Whole lotta other people as well.
- Amalia - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:35 pm:
Bailey in the lead with no trump endorsement may mean Trump will want to take advantage and weigh in.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:39 pm:
Luckily we don’t need Irvin to “remember” it because we have the receipts. I’m sure if we didn’t he would just deny it.
- Demoralized - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:42 pm:
==I’m sure if we didn’t he would just deny it==
Um, he’s been denying things we have receipts for.
- vern - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:44 pm:
=== I have trouble believing any numbers backed by the same money ===
It’s a fair instinct but it would be easy for the Irvin campaign to rebut this. They’ve certainly got rolling trackers in the field by now. If they don’t release any numbers this week, I kinda have to believe it’s because they look like these numbers.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:49 pm:
==Um, he’s been denying things we have receipts for.==
I’m surprised he hasn’t claimed the texts were altered. Maybe he suspects that the source has other oppo and is scared to provoke them by saying so.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:51 pm:
-I’m surprised by that, I thought he would have more appeal.-
He stumbled out of the gate with the military thing. Then, to my surprise he turned hardline Christian conservative going all in on social issues. I had him pegged to go the Irvin route and stay mushy on hot button issues and try to appear moderate, but nope he’s tacked way right. I also expect people consider him too young and inexperienced for the state’s top job.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 12:58 pm:
Sully hired a bunch of Glenn Youngkin’s brain trust. That model (saying the quiet part quietly) worked in VA, but lost in PA, and is no longer a viable strategy. Interesting that Irvin is also trying to thread the needle in this primary. Bailey is the only authentic one of the three.
Authentically crazy, but authentic nonetheless.
https://politicalwire.com/2022/06/06/the-glenn-youngkin-model-sputters/
- JS Mill - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:02 pm:
=From what I can see there is an excitement deficit with Irvin.=
And a truth deficit.
=I thought he would have more appeal.=
He has lived in California for too long, he cannot out batsnot-crazy Bailey, and has the same truth deficit as all of the others.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:02 pm:
==Maybe he suspects that the source has other oppo==
He knows they do. So does pretty much anyone who lives in or around Aurora - which is probably at least a little bit of the reason Bailey has better numbers in the suburbs than people would have guessed, all else being equal.
The big stuff probably won’t be coming out unless Irvin makes it out of the primary. Mostly because it might actually *help Irvin* with GOP voters in the primary. That said, I don’t completely discount Bailey being Bailey and tossing it out at the last minute because of his insecurities.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:06 pm:
===and is no longer a viable strategy===
In Pennsylvania for that one office in that one primary with those particular candidates. Not saying the Virginia strategy works, just saying it’s difficult to copy stuff in other state primaries.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:09 pm:
===just saying it’s difficult to copy stuff in other state primaries.===
Agreed, which is why Sully’s strategy was flawed from the start.
- Laketrail Runner - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:13 pm:
Guys, this is exactly what JB Pritzker wants us to be talking about.
- Frustrated GOP - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:20 pm:
Irvin and Griffin are finding out what it’s like to be on the receiving side of the GOP fallen assault. It’s not like the Dems who at times hold their punches. Nope, this is bare knuckles no hold bar full on scorched earth. Which is why the party is continuing to shrink.
- Langhorne - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:21 pm:
Bailey’s “movement” shtick has been hard enough to listen to. Add a poll which has him in the lead, and he will be insufferable, from whatever pulpit he has available.
- ste_with a v_en - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:27 pm:
The same pollster who said Trump would win in 2020 says Darren Bailey has a lead. Must be nice to have Uihlein money to blow on fantasy to make them feel better.
- Dirty Red - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:30 pm:
= Whole lotta other people as well. =
True, but I imagine your comment filters have character limits preventing us from listing all of them 0:-)
Slightly off of the post:
Imagine Irvin pulls it off at the top of the slate (not top-of-the-ballot, mind you, since GOP leadership failed to recruit a moderate to run for U.S. Senate). What impact, if any, would that outcome have on Kim v DeVore?
- B Team - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:46 pm:
Dems are absolutely loving this, what a mess the ILGOP has become.
- Give Me A Break - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:55 pm:
“Dems are absolutely loving this, what a mess the ILGOP has become.
Illinois GOP has become a collection of Union Busters, Confederate Sympathizers, Religious Zealots, Conspiracy Theorist and Trump Worshipers.
Not much to run on with that group. Not really a group with public policy chops or interest in how government works.
- Curious citizen - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:55 pm:
Every time I see “People Who Play By The Rules PAC” I laugh my behind off. Dan Proft, rules follower …
- skidmark - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 1:56 pm:
interesting tactic. Where are the crosstabs? Rabine at that name ID is fishy. Seem like this may have been concentrated in a specific county/area. Does anyone trust anything Proft says, anyway? I’ve never voted republican but even I know Proft is as shady as they come.
- Chrishope - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:06 pm:
It’s very shocking that Ken Griffin with all his resources didn’t do his research on Richard Irvin’s pass missteps as mayor of Aurora. I believe the Fabrizio and Lee poll to be true because Mr. Irvin never gives a straight answer about anything. It’s all so odd but it’s up to the voters who they want to lead the GOP. Voters are smarter than we give them credit for.
- Sir Reel - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:08 pm:
This GOP primary is turning out to be F Troop.
- Al - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:12 pm:
Interesting how well a black liberal Democrat is polling in the Republican primary.
- Watchful eye. - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:15 pm:
Every slate candidate in a city tested race is losing.
- Watchful eye. - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:16 pm:
Contested
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:21 pm:
People are assuming that the DGA is running ads against Irvin because they want Bailey to be the nominee. That might be giving them too much credit. They might have assumed that Irvin would win and so are running ads against him because they want to prevent Irvin from being able to define himself and his campaign in a vacuum or without the influence of the issues that they think are important.
I think the real question for the general election if Irvin wins the primary is whether or not he being their candidate in the general election will suppress turnout of GOP voters, or cause them to otherwise vote 3rd party or just skip the Governor’s race on the ballot.
The big picture for the Illinois GOP at this time is whether or not the future of their party is better or worse with Irvin or Bailey at the mast head. Even if they some how were to win the Governor’s race, they’re not taking a majority in either of the chambers and neither of them will be able to accomplish much in the way of a real agenda unless their agenda is just to do a bad job and try to destroy and undermine what’s left of our state institutions.
- natty lite - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:30 pm:
“Dems are absolutely loving this, what a mess the ILGOP has become.”
(Posted from 20 years ago)
- New Day - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:32 pm:
I hate to pour any cold water on this and I do think Irvin is losing, but if my math is right, there’s still more than 25% undecided and three weeks left. This is anybody’s race.
- New Day - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:35 pm:
“People are assuming that the DGA is running ads against Irvin because they want Bailey to be the nominee.”
We’re not assuming this. That’s what the funder of their anti-Irvin ads wants.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:40 pm:
===This is anybody’s race===
That’s not usually how this works.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:41 pm:
Bailey as is, or a severely damaged Irvin. The ads serve both purposes. Both can be had, but the contrast with Bailey and the massive difference in funding makes that the better scenario for JB’s camp.
- Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 2:42 pm:
-This is anybody’s race.-
Anybody named Bailey or Irvin.
- H-W - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 3:07 pm:
As I suggested last week, and the week before - Always pay attention to the margin of error associated with the sampling frames.
I guess Irvin is no longer 6 points ahead. I guess different samples from a population get different results, and until one candidate exceeds the margin of error, it is unwise to suggest someone is winning.
- Roman - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:14 pm:
I had the same reaction as others here: does this increase the chances of Trump jumping in for Bailey?
Maybe Trump jumps halfway in — says something nice about Bailey without formally endorsing him. That way he takes credit if Bailey wins and can deny blame if he doesn’t.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:24 pm:
Even Dangerfield couldn’t match this kind of comedy.
- AlfondoGonz - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:28 pm:
“Listen, I don’t remember sending those texts since 2018 or 2019.”
But do you remember feeling that way, Mayor?
- Al - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:38 pm:
Wondering if the Tribune’s endorsement of Paul Schimpf will give him a bump?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:39 pm:
This has always been Darren Bailey’s race to lose, to anyone who is a student of game theory.
Give credit to Bailey for being patient about his spending to make sure he had finances for the final stretch.
Griffin blundered badly in picking such a poorly prepared candidate who has so much baggage and then running on crime while ignoring Republicans’ top issues. I get that Griffin’s #1 issue is Crime! But one of the key differences between winning and losing campaigns is that winning campaigns focus on what voters care about while losing campaigns focus on what candidates care about.
Is there time to save it? Maybe. Something huge could happen, like a sex scandal or FBI investigation into Bailey’s emails.
But if this poll is accurate — and I assume Irvin is polling and would be sharing results if they showed him winning — Irvin will not be the nominee.
- New Day - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 4:41 pm:
“That’s not usually how this works.”
Nope. Not usually. Any maybe “anybody” is overbroad. But you can absolutely see a path for four of them. Far more likely for Irvin or Bailey, but how many times in American politics have you seen two front-runners beat the living crap out of each other, thus creating a lane for a third more positive candidate. I still say it’s likely Bailey, but plenty of time for that scenario to play itself out.
- The Dude Abides - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 5:12 pm:
Bailey winning would be music to Pritzker’s ears. Regardless of who the GOP nominee is, they will be the underdog come November.
- DougChicago - Monday, Jun 6, 22 @ 6:54 pm:
Well, if Bailey does pull it off he should get no money (other I suppose from Uileihn) for the the general election as he simply cannot win. Hopefully Dan has made enough money from the primary to fund his new place in Naples.
- NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Tuesday, Jun 7, 22 @ 8:42 am:
==or cause them to otherwise vote 3rd party ==
Anyone announced a third party candidacy for Governor yet? I have not found anything on ISBE’s site yet nor have heard any of the Libertarians, Greens, and others announce if they are running anyone this year.