* Click the pics for access to the full Sun-Times/WBEZ stories. I went over some of these races with subscribers today (even though the email hasn’t sent yet), so I’ll just leave them here for y’all…

* Bill Brady ran for governor three times, so one explanation is that Dan has the better ballot name…

* Wide open…

* More results from a different article. Again, click the pics for a link to the full Sun-Times/WBEZ report and analysis…

       

75 Comments - CubsFan16 - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:38 am: At this point, seems very probable that Republicans not just in IL but across country spoil their potential big year by nominating crazies up and down the ballot in primaries. - Roadrager - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:39 am: I don’t know how you can look at those last four polling questions and not think this country is past a point of no return. Unless you like those ideas, of course. - ;) - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:40 am: very, very probable Cubsfan. - Amalia - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:40 am: ok, that last question’s results, positively frightening, and telling. - SWIL_Voter - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:40 am: These people do not live in the same reality I do. How can we ever do anything bipartisan when one of the parties believes fantasy stuff like this? - transplant - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:41 am: Jesus Christ. Are they serious? They can’t leave their homes and be serious with those answers. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:41 am: Those leads are slight, and the undecideds are huge, but Republicans have potential for a mini-LaRouchite disaster here - Roadrager - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:42 am: ==At this point, seems very probable that Republicans not just in IL but across country spoil their potential big year by nominating crazies up and down the ballot in primaries.== Let’s revisit this come January when Senator Herschel Walker is a reality and he maybe cracks the top twenty of newly-elected crazies. - John Lopez - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:42 am: === Republicans not just in IL but across country spoil their potential big year by nominating crazies up and down the ballot in primaries. === To flip the U.S. House, Republicans only need a net 5-seat gain. To flip the U.S. Senate, Republicans only need a net 1-seat gain. For Democrats to end U.S. Senate Filibuster, they need a net 1-seat gain. - Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:43 am: Kinzinger said if Trump truly believes that the election was stolen he isn’t mentally fit to hold office. I would say likewise regarding the mental fitness to vote of 67 percent of GOP voters. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:48 am: Looks like a very favorable environment for the Bailey campaign and his race to lose, if he can’t tap into today’s GOP base. - Lincoln Lad - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:48 am: Hard to believe people would hold these views on racism… it’s pretty inconceivable. - Anon - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:49 am: The poll results on racism and bigotry only adds up to 88%. I wonder if the remaining 12% was for those Really White People that require sunscreen everytime they step outside from Memorial Day until Labor Day. - MaddyMoon - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:50 am: =potential big year by nominating crazies up and down the ballot in primaries.= lol. the MAGA voter base is larger than the MAGA elected officials. at the end of the day the majority of republicans in congress and those running are mostly establishment republican/conservatives that know how to turn on the MAGA when they need to. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:51 am: -36% think white people suffer the most from racism and bigotry- Well if that isn’t a microcosm of where the GOP is today. Boo hoo for you. Your victimhood is driving you into irrelevancy. Their November ticket could end up being a collection of mostly fringe candidates, messing up at least in IL what should otherwise be a good year for them. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:51 am: It’s amazing that the IL GOP has gone from the party of Lincoln to the party of Trump. It used to stand for a united country working for the betterment of the state. Now, it’s members want to tear about the state, embrace lies and spread hate. I mourn the party of Lincoln and will fight against the party of Trump. - phocion - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:52 am: ==For Democrats to end U.S. Senate Filibuster, they need a net 1-seat gain.== No, because Manchin and Sinema are on the record opposing ending the filibuster. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:52 am: Oops, “tear apart” - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:52 am: They’d still vote for him?…Despite giving his sycophantic veep to the mob and throwing his daughter under the (proverbial) bus? - Jocko - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:52 am: Oops. 9:52 was me - Shibboleth - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:56 am: Utterly terrifying results for those wanting a sane country. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:58 am: The difference is the self proclaimed “reasonable and moderate”Democrats are obviously afraid to cross their radical, progressive base even if it means certain defeat in the House and possibly the Senate - walker - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:58 am: Fear and victimhood have become the most powerful political messages in our country. Why happened to opportunity and confidence? Consumer onfidence in the economy is way down this week. - SAP - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:00 am: Those don’t believe the legitimacy of the election numbers are frightening. Can you imagine if Hillary Clinton tried to stage a coup in 2016 on the basis that she should be President because she got more popular votes? Or Al Gore in 2000? - Left of what - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:03 am: Not surprising, lines up with national polling on these questions. If anyone is alarmed by these answers, I am being sincere, watch one night of fox news, especially Tucker, it will all make sense. - Lt Guv - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:05 am: Walker nailed an important observation. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:12 am: == The difference is the self proclaimed “reasonable and moderate”Democrats are obviously afraid to cross their radical, progressive base even if it means certain defeat in the House and possibly the Senate== One of your tells is when you say something is “obvious” but don’t actually cite any example of it. That’s one of the ways we can tell you’re lying (there are many others). In this case, Biden constantly brags about how he has increased funding for police (not “defund the police”), doesn’t entertain M4A, and is considering far less college debt relief that “the left” wants. It’s possible that you don’t actually know anything about what “the left” wants. After all, why would that be different than any other subject you prattle on about? Now let’s see you dance. Ask some silly rhetorical questions that isn’t responsive to the fact that that what you claimed “obviously” happens isn’t happening at all. - Jibba - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:14 am: ===How can we ever do anything bipartisan when one of the parties believes fantasy stuff like this?=== Amen. And LP, that log in your eye needs looking at. Rs are the ones persecuting their own for acknowledging the impeachable crimes of the former president. - Independent - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:16 am: 36% believe white people suffer the most discrimination? I doubt it’s that high, if respondents were being honest. What we don’t know is how many skewed their answers to support their tribe, own the libs, etc. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:16 am: AOC: I can’t commit to supporting Biden for President again. Manchin: No more child tax credit. Lucky Pierre: Do you mean to tell me that these actual events happened and not just the things I wished for upon the brightest star??? - LOL - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:18 am: The Republicans are not okay. - H-W - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:25 am: Interesting data points. Thanks for sharing. It is important to remind ourselves that this is a sample of “likely Republican voters, in Illinois.” Those are the two important criteria to keep in mind. Because they are likely Republican voters, they are also older, and disproportionately white Anglo. That said, the Republican candidate for president questions probably includes too many people for the average lay person to wrap their head around right now. My guess is that with so many people, the average respondent just simplifies this to Trump or someone else. Clearly, DeSantis is positioning himself well to compete with Trump (more so that these results suggest). As to the race question (my area of research and a college level course I routinely teach), I am not surprised. If we paraphrase it to read, which group is most oppressed by considerations of race and ethnicity, then it is not unreasonable to find that a third of likely Republican voters in Illinois (e.g., a third of conservative, older, white Anglos) feel that they are oppressed by considerations of race and ethnicity. We are talking about a subset of Illinoisans who are not only overwhelmingly white Anglo, but also more segregated from minority citizens (e.g., rural and suburban residents, versus urban residents). And this subset is also historically conservative. It has spent more than a decade being influenced by the Tea Party version of Republican politics that is anti-immigration, and anti-social support systems. For more than a decade, this subset has been lead to believe by biased, celebrity media pundits, that ethnic minorities and racial minorities are getting “too much” assistance (what ever too much means). They also being consistently told that immigrants are coming to American unrestricted, and primarily from Mexico and Central America (a truism, in that half of all immigrants come from Asian countries). These likely Republican voters are told that immigrants are taking good jobs from citizens (another truism in that while Asian immigrants are somewhat more likely to be employed in decent, skilled jobs, the overwhelming majority of Latino immigrants are employed in low wage jobs that lack sufficient benefits. These likely Republican voters believe that since they have worked hard for all their lives and are are at best, just getting by (average), the same “bootstrap mentality” should apply to everyone. Everyone should work hard and just get by, without receiving social support when necessary. It is well known that Conservative politics had colored social ills. Reagan colorized welfare, Bush Sr. colorized crime, Bush Jr. colorized terrorism, and Trump colorized crime. For literally decades, this subset of the population has been sold an vision in which America is becoming dangerous because ethnic and racial minorities are problematic. The new theory (new to lay people at least) is that white people are being replaced by people of color. That only one-third of this subset of Illinoisans believe that (a) white people are discriminated against, and (b) prejudice against white people is widespread, is actually a low number in my book. I am surprised the number was not higher. The Thomas Theorem states that if people believe something is real, it can become real in its consequences. If people believe white people are oppressed, the consequences of that believe can lead to the further oppression of ethnic and racial minorities. This is why the truth needs to be told. Minorities are not advantaged in any institutional context, and will not be advantaged in the foreseeable future. The problem is just that so many white Anglos are not advantaged either. - low level - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:28 am: ==obviously afraid to cross their radical, progressive base == Could you please provide an example of that? One vote or policy or debate? - Siualum - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:30 am: Maybe those are the real reasons folks are leaving Illinois. - Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:30 am: Lucky embraces whataboutism. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:42 am: “I doubt it’s that high” I don’t. These are republican primary voters. While only an anecdote, my personal experience is that anytime a repulsive behavior is called out - like the guy booted from a school board meeting for refusing to wear a mask - the response is that it is a “racist attack because I’m white”. They are being judged on their character and behavior, and can’t accept that - so to protect the ego it becomes ‘it’s really about my skin color, not my personal behavior’. Frankly, I’m surprised the number isn’t higher among republican primary voters. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:46 am: ===The difference is=== *This* only works as an argument if - Lucky Pierre -embraces his own inner racism. When people tell you who they are, believe them, like I truly believe - Lucky Pierre - and this poll to racists thoughts and his embracing of it being “ok” To the polling itself? The empowered and emboldened racist thinkers that litter the GOP in such great numbers was first seen with Ives, now embracing anything that allows old, angry, white voters to feel a victimhood… … a victimhood predicated that the right to feel superior merely by race shouldn’t be questioned… and that questioning of overt racism is “damaging”. It’s the saddest thing you’ll see… now have a whole political party embracing racism thoughts too. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:46 am: Early voted in the GOP primary, suffice to say I am really out of the mainstream within the party based on these poll numbers. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:56 am: Joe Biden ran as a moderate who can bring the parties together and restore normalcy. The progressives demands have ruined his Presidency so far because they somehow thought a 50/50 Senate and the slimmest House majority in modern history was a mandate for progressive change on the scale of FDR. Democrats will rue the day they changed the committee rules to allow the Democratic Speaker for the first time in history to appoint Republican members to House committees. Won’t they ever learn that they will have to live by these rules when they are in the minority? - Middle Way - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:00 am: Those last four charts are why you aren’t going to see a turnaround for the party in suburban Congressional races this cycle despite the national environment. This stuff might (maybe) play in the exurbs and will play in rural areas, but not elsewhere. Could an effective a Dold or Roskam-type even get out of a competitive primary against a more Trumpy, populist challenger this cycle? - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:01 am: That comment is beneath you OW and given your history of putting your words in other people’s mouths that is saying something. Smearing people as racists who have said nothing whatsoever that is racial in anyway is civil commentary? - Left of what - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:03 am: Lucky, that isn’t right. The gop likely flipping congress has less to do with any specific issues or anything dems are doing and more to do with trends in thermostatic approval and the new remap moving more lean R districts to safe R (nationally). The reason the majorities are so slim is because we have outweighed rural influence , especially in the senate. So, Republicans can hold minority opinions relative to mass public opinion, and still wield a lot of influence in the legislative process. - UIC Flame - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:03 am: Or Maybe Brady is just running a better race then Milhiser. He is actually talking about issues relating to the office. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:05 am: =The difference is the self proclaimed “reasonable and moderate”Democrats are obviously afraid to cross their radical, progressive base even if it means certain defeat in the House and possibly the Senate= I will not deign to feed the long-tolerated troll of the CapFax community, other than to say, it is *always* projection with these people - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:05 am: Please note: - Lucky Pierre - has talked about… ===Democrats will rue the day they changed the committee rules to allow the Democratic Speaker for the first time in history to appoint Republican members to House committees. Won’t they ever learn that they will have to live by these rules when they are in the minority?=== This is, of course, about the insurrection, and as one who refuses to condemn the insurrection, and one who has embraced the racist thinking elements of the GOP… It’s not that - Lucky Pierre - is a bot, it’s that even - Lucky Pierre - devolved from a Raunerite to a conspiracy thinking Trumpkin supporter, willing to dismiss the racist thinking too. In so *many* ways, the devolution of - Lucky Pierre - is seen from 2015 to 2022… perfectly mirroring the devolution of the ILGOP. I appreciate the real time example - Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:14 am: ==Won’t they ever learn that they will have to live by these rules when they are in the minority?== Sort of how like McConnell blocked Garland but then flipped and shoved Coney Barrett through lol? - Roadrager - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:14 am: ==36% believe white people suffer the most discrimination? I doubt it’s that high, if respondents were being honest. What we don’t know is how many skewed their answers to support their tribe, own the libs, etc.== I am reminded of the origin story of Rush Limbaugh as a broadcasting titan. He was a true conservative, but in a radio gig in Kansas City, he started doing a bit that was conservatism ramped up to 11, a sort of “this is what the left thinks conservatives sound like, aren’t they ridiculous.” Turned out his listeners liked it ramped up to 11, and so he got bigger gigs, and eventually got high on his own supply (of absurdist conservatism, not the other thing) and took it all as gospel himself, spreading it accordingly. All of this is to say that, yes, they are saying whites are the most persecuted race to own the libs, but they are also saying it because they believe it. The former is just a bonus and occasional convenient cover for the latter. LP’s posts are a reminder that this simple and effective blog layout could benefit from a “mute user” feature. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:15 am: ==It’s not that - Lucky Pierre - is a bot, it’s that even - Lucky Pierre - devolved== He was, is, and always has been a hyper partisan hack who is incapable of any sort of truthful, serious commentary and who can’t make a comment without invoking “whataboutism.” He simply isn’t serious and isn’t to be taken seriously. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:17 am: The Republican Party as it used to exist is dead. It’s been overtaken by crackpots and kooks. - Baloneymous - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:25 am: ===I will not deign to feed the long-tolerated troll of the CapFax community=== Agreed and thanks for someone finally pointing this out. - Chicago Blue - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:35 am: Those last couple of questions are unsurprising but still unsettling. Nominating MAGA crazies may cost them some races but the national environment (high inflation that Biden’s camp tried to ignore for too long, possible official “recession”, stock mark bubble popping) will put too many of them in important positions of power when they refuse to acknowledge reality when Trump loses the popular vote a 3rd time in 2024. Democracy is an experiment and we’re looking at some failed test cycles. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:52 am: ===That comment is beneath you OW and given your history of putting your words in other people’s mouths that is saying something. Smearing people as racists who have said nothing whatsoever that is racial in anyway is civil commentary?=== As you read this, note that - Lucky Pierre - is angered *at me* but still refusing to look at the racism and taking any time to condemn the racist thinkers in the party, “Smearing people as racists who have said nothing whatsoever that is racial in anyway is civil commentary?” Deciding not to condemn the racism in the GOP but wanting others to embrace “whataboutism” is embracing the racist thinkers. I know, it sticks, but it’s who you are. Mirrors can be harsh. You’ve had “dozens of dozens” of opportunities to condemn, to abhor, to show disgust with the racist thinkers… but like today, you want the discussion to be about Democrats, all but coddling the racists thinkers as they are needed in 2022’s GOP. I can’t type what you should be ashamed or abhor, I can only read what you want others to think of your thoughts. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:00 pm: To the rest of the poll? Easy. Old, angry, white voters who embrace conspiracy theories and want a cult leader and that fascination with him, his *own* conspiracies… they are not only the base, they are seemingly the majority of this GOP, and want to say so, emboldened and empowered to say even the most racist of thoughts, and embrace “other liked thinkers” as leaders of this party… in Illinois. This is not the party of Lincoln. The Griffin Slate, for better or worse, was designed to stave off the ugly elements… that slate is at best… faltering. - yinn - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:10 pm: I feel like we should have processed the Morton Downey, Jr. phenomenon better. - Amalia - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:12 pm: Love Walker’s comment at 9:58. Unfortunately, the far Right AND the far Left are complicit in washing themselves in victimization water. Reality is in the middle. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:17 pm: ===AND=== Good try. No. Nope. Look at this poll, look at the majority GOP as polled. It ain’t no GOP fringe. It’s who the GOP actually is in Illinois right now. - Pundent - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:19 pm: Sixty seven percent of Republican voters believe in the big lie despite the fact that the facts do not support it. What it underscores is that for these voters facts are irrelevant when they run counter to your wishes. That’s where the GOP finds itself today. - 47th Ward - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:21 pm: ===the Morton Downey, Jr. phenomenon better=== I also blame the rise of professional wrestling. The damage has been severe. - sal-says - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:31 pm: Very, very scary. - hisgirlfriday - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:35 pm: To walker’s point that fear and victimhood are the most powerful political messages in this country - this is because they are the most powerful messages to communicate to get eyeballs watching cable news channels. To the 36% poll number of whites as most oppressed - with all due respect, if anyone is surprised by this number they are not paying attention. What do people think the CRT in schools panic was about? Tucker Carlson’s Masterrace Theatre is the most influential program in Republican politics today so this should not be a surprising poll result. - WestBurbs - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:44 pm: I try not to get involved in battles between other commentators but I gotta say that OW’s description of LP is — sadly — exactly what I’ve seen happen with a lot of my friends. At one time they were relatively reasonable, right leaning fiscal conservatives but, over time, they have slid far, far right. While they would deny they are extremists, they refuse to acknowledge that Jan 6 was an insurrection quite different than any BLM protest, and refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the 2020 election, pointing to Hillary’s “don’t concede” and Gore’s SCt challenge. And the racism that used to be hidden is front and center. Incredibly sad…. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:54 pm: Well in 10 years the Aurora Township GOP went from endorsing ‘Liberal Democrat’ Richard Irvin to ‘censuring’ Mark Kirk. As I look back at my time in my little corner of the GOP I have to say in hindsight, I should have seen this coming. Things had become more about grievance, immigration in particular but overall a feeling of ‘I am getting jerked over’. The motivations of folks seemed to have changed a bit as well. I also think at least in Illinois as the part has lost influence in more areas, involvement by ‘moderates’ has gone down as well and that kind of compounds the effect. Suffice it to say the Illinois GOP stopped being the party to Thompson and Edgar (and Ryan) a while back and I doubt if it is ever going back. - Original Rambler - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:20 pm: The answer to the racism question is just mind-boggling. These people have no clue, but they will vote, likely for the crazies. And unless the economy improves we may see the crazies take a big step forward in November. - Roadrager - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:32 pm: ==Unfortunately, the far Right AND the far Left are complicit in washing themselves in victimization water.== One thinks straight white people are being treated unfairly in this country because they occasionally have to coexist with minorities. Another is getting legislation passed criminalizing their existence in multiple states and just had a terrorist group travel to Idaho to sabotage a Pride march they were having. These things are the same. - Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 2:04 pm: Is this an episode from the Bickersons? - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:11 pm: ==DeVore’s tied.== Last I checked 20 is greater than 18. So, no, he’s not tied doofus. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:14 pm: ” … spoil their potential big year by nominating crazies up and down the ballot in primaries.” 2010, Delaware US Senate Race, Christine O’Donnell “She’s a Witch!” - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:22 pm: ===Christine O’Donnell=== She was one person. There could be a lot more than one here. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:32 pm: ===There could be a lot more than one here.=== 2010 should have been like 1994 - both chambers flip. The Democrats held the Senate until 2014 due to the “Christine O’Donnell’s” running in 2010 and 2012. - Real - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:46 pm: Now you see why Rauner/Irvin team manufacturers candidates for the IL GOP. Ignoring how BLM evolved Richard Irvin ignorantly repeats all lives as his handlers know this gets the attention of a certain base. - park - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 4:56 pm: As a lifelong republican, I have only one reaction…Oy! - MisterJayEm - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 5:00 pm: The troll’s posts are incredibly easy to ignore — and it’s even easier to not respond to them. – MrJM - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 5:02 pm: Embracing the racist thinkers? As always I will be practicing the Buckley rule and voting for the most conservative candidate who can win- Richard Irvin. Since you are also claim to be a moderate Republican I am sure you will do the same. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 5:05 pm: ===voting for the most conservative candidate who can win=== So, you won’t be shilling for Bailey if he wins? Asking for a friend. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 5:13 pm: ===Embracing the racist thinkers?=== You have yet, given so many chances, to condemn the racist thinkers and the conspiracy theorists. You complain about the January 6th committee, you “whatabout” the racism to protect the racist thinkers. It’s who you are. Live with that. ===So, you won’t be shilling for Bailey if he wins?=== I’m curious too, besides Rich’s friend who is curious. Of the GOP choices, since day 1, I’ve said I’ve felt Irvin is the best candidate. Given how Irvin is running… You are who you are - Lucky Pierre -, devolution included Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.