* From Mary Miller’s pollster…
Miller Surging in IL-15; Davis’ Image Tumbles
DATE: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
TO: Interested parties
FROM: Brent Buchanan, President/Founder & Wil Lemon, Research Analyst
RE: Miller has the momentum and surges to lead over Davis in Illinois-15
“Mary Miller has the clear advantage in this race. Her surge – despite being outspent and having outrageous attacks thrown at her – shows her strength. Davis’ attempts to smear Miller have backfired as she’s not only created a ballot lead but also leads Davis in image intensity and intensity on the ballot.
– Brent Buchanan, Pollster/Founder
• Miller now leads Davis 45% to 40% with 15% undecided.
• The race was tied at 41% apiece in the first week of June. The race has gone from even to +5 for Miller in less than two weeks.
• Miller leads Davis +31 with Trump Republicans, and high-propensity voters are shifting to Miller.
• Conclusion: Miller’s ballot momentum is likely growing and will be capped off when President
Trump holds a Save America rally in the district to remind voters of the stakes next Tuesday.
The Cygnal n420 poll in Illinois Congressional District 15 was conducted June 18-19, 2022, with a margin of error of ±4.77%.
Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 48 states and 17 countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns. Cygnal conducted all of Donald J. Trump’s polling from Labor Day through Election Day in 2020. The firm is working in nearly every one of the nation’s most competitive races.
Graphs are here.
* Meanwhile, this advisory is from Sunday evening…
Good evening –
Tomorrow morning in Springfield, Congressman Rodney Davis (R-IL) will be announcing a major endorsement of his campaign. As the only candidate in this race willing to answer questions, Congressman Davis will make the announcement during a media availability after a roundtable event with local leaders. Due to the House being in session this week, this may likely be Congressman Davis’ last media availability in the Springfield-area before June 28. Media are invited to attend, and details can be found below.
WHO: Congressman Rodney Davis, local leaders
WHAT: Congressman Davis announces endorsement, holds media availability
WHERE: Mel-O-Cream, 5456 International Pkwy, Springfield, IL 62711
WHEN: 11:00am CT (media may arrive earlier to set up)
The big reveal…
Davis this week won the endorsements of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Illinois Chamber of Commerce. On Monday, Davis huddled with business leaders at the Mel-O-Cream Donuts International in Springfield, the state capital. Davis fielded questions on his record and the economy before meeting with heads of businesses and chamber officials at Knapheide Manufacturing Company, where he was endorsed by both entities and given an Advocate for American Business Award.
Davis touted his work on policies related to incentivizing employers to pay off employees’ student debt, his role in helping craft the 2017 tax law House and Senate Republicans enacted with then-President Donald Trump, and campaign efforts to get fellow GOP lawmakers elected. Davis added that his focus isn’t on doing TV hits and feels his record of finding bipartisan solutions is an asset to the district, dismissing his opponent’s attacks that he is a “RINO” (Republican in name only).
“That’s not going to be me,” he said regarding the TV hits. “You’ll see me fight, I enjoy the fight, I don’t have to tell you that. But in the end, that’s not my job, and Washington, D.C., should not be the only level of government that we don’t expect to function.”
Illinois Chamber CEO Todd Maisch told the Washington Examiner that while he agrees with much of Miller’s voting record, he believes Davis’s legislative accomplishments warranted the endorsement.
I was kinda expecting more.
Check out the jargon…
“Another huge win for the business community was the USMCA deal in the last administration and another key architected key champion on that legislation,” Eidshaug said. “We’ve also needed key champions to stop bad things from happening in Washington too. Stopping bad tax and spending policies on the Pelosi Schumer Build Back Better bill. Congressman Davis was there with us then too.”
* KSDK…
[Rodney Davis] took questions from the press for half an hour, and at one point said he could go half an hour longer to defend his colleague Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-TX) from accusations that he led Capitol rioters on a “reconnaissance tour” through the halls and security checkpoints on the Capitol grounds the day before January 6th.
“That accusation needed to be proven false,” Davis said, explaining why he wrote a letter to U.S. Capitol Police. “I sent my team over to view Capitol Police footage and we showed no member of the Republican conference took anyone on a so-called ‘reconnaissance tour’ into the Capitol.”
Davis contends Loudermilk’s group only toured an office building, and never entered the U.S. Capitol on January 5 or on the 6th.
* Related…
* Mary Miller and Rodney Davis square off in heated GOP primary to return to Congress
* The Illinois primary between Davis and Miller will test Trump’s sway with GOP voters: St. Louis Public Radio contacted both Miller and Davis, but Miller did not return multiple requests for comment. She has dodged reporters at public events and avoided interviews with most news outlets.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:08 am:
If Miller is really surging- and I’m not sold on it, but if- then a chamber of commerce endorsement won’t turn things around for Rodney is one week. They don’t have ground troops. They have money, which they shoulda brought in earlier.
- So_Ill - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:08 am:
If Miller wins, it’s further proof republicans have completely given up on actually legislating.
Scary stuff. Although 2022 candidate Rodney isn’t much better than her.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:12 am:
Here’s the sitch?
US Chamber and Illinois Chamber… or Trump…
In that district, what endorsement would you want more?
- So_Ill - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:14 am:
==US Chamber and Illinois Chamber… or Trump…
In that district, what endorsement would you want more?==
Right? It’s a no brainer. The Chambers have very little sway with the modern Trump brand in the GOP.
I’m sure the Miller campaign will call these “RINO” endorsements.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:15 am:
I don’t recognize Rodney anymore. He has gone so far to the right to try and beat Miller he could be running for Rep in Alabama.
- Been There - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:18 am:
====I was kinda expecting more.====
What’s wrong with Mel-O-Cream?
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:19 am:
Davis has no momentum right now. Miller has all of it and she’s building it on the side of the district that’s making its mind up on two brand new (to them) candidates.
The area where Trump is going, is new ground to both Miller and Davis and its much more MAGA county than the other parts of the district.
I think this race is very close and it comes down to turnout. On a nice June day what group is going to be more willing to go to the polls instead of the pools - I give that nod to Miller’s flock.
They are way more motivated right now.
And the race has split the otherwise solid block of the Illinois Farm Bureau. A past president has come out to voice a radio spot for Miller against Davis. IFB picked Davis a long time ago in this race and I’d say its unprecedented that a former IFB President would go so publicly against the “endorsed” candidate.
- Lakefront - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:20 am:
== In that district, what endorsement would you want more? ==
An endorsement from the Chambers has some level of value. But certainly the coveted endorsement is Trump’s. Yet the Chamber endorsements are more a testament to his legislative style than any campaign rhetoric this cycle. If Rodney wins again he probably keeps on being the same Rodney in DC. Consistency and lack of crazy - it’s what the Chambers want.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:20 am:
We’ll see if this is accurate, but it kind of mirrors the Gov race for me… enthusiasm (some would say rabid) vs. eh, the other guy I guess. The current trend of the GOP seems to be about loud performance vs actual work and results.
- vern - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:22 am:
=== Miller leads Davis +31 with Trump Republicans ===
The pollster leaves that demo markedly undefined, but it’s interesting that +31 with “Trump Republicans” doesn’t put her over 50 in a Republican primary. However they defined that group, Miller will need some “non-Trump” Republicans to pull this off.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:23 am:
This is great news for the ILGOP. The party strongly opposed impeaching Trump for the insurrection. This must be what it wants, the RINO establishment slipping and Trump playing an active role in Illinois politics.
- MaddyMoon - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:25 am:
team Davis has been in this spot before. they have won several elections by just a scoopful of votes. Miller’s folks are green, and have no idea how to chase AB’s and get their voters to the polls. The trump endorsement is huge for Miller, but will they be able to kick it to the finish line with the wind at their back?
in the spirit of that district, Miller should win. but on paper Davis might have her beat because they know how to close.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:26 am:
I’m finding it hard to care which wins…one who is clearly off the deep end or one who emulates and supports them for political gain? Is it better to give the megaphone to a serial foot-in-mouther and hope for destruction of self and the wacky wing of the party? Will the House GOP agenda be any different with or without Mary Miller? My guess is not much.
- Gordon Willis - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:38 am:
On June 29th me thinks Rodney will wake-up and wish he had stayed in the 13th CD….the real Rodney would give Nikki B a good run. After all his last several general elections have been against liberal/progressive women and even with the newly drawn 13th his chances might have been better.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 11:48 am:
It may well boil down to who is viewed by Republican voters in this district as the more favorable “proxy” or “protest” vote against the Biden administration. And… who will have the loudest mouthpiece going down to the wire. Miller probably scores higher than Davis in both those categories.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:11 pm:
===wish he had stayed in the 13th CD===
Maybe, but he didn’t move.
- Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:20 pm:
=== wish he had stayed in the 13th CD ===
Actually, the mistake was not running for Governor.
Davis-Irvin would have had a solid shot with Griffin’s money.
You have to believe that Mike Z atleast considered it.
Was Griffin not keen on having a Trump affiliate he could not control atop the ticket? Was Rodney to busy measuring the curtains for his coveted chairmanship?
I really want to know the inside scoop on this one.
- Gordon Willis - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:26 pm:
Rodney may need Dems who crossover to boost Bailey to pull the lever for Davis. That would send a message to Mar-a-lago.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:29 pm:
===Rodney may need Dems who crossover to boost Bailey to pull the lever for Davis===
It doesn’t work that way. Ever.
- Voting2022 - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:37 pm:
I wonder how many people who have voted Davis in the past did so because he was a fit for an R+4 district. Also, how many of those folks will change their votes now it’s an R+40 district. The race is definitely down to the wire at this point. It’s now Style over substance.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:38 pm:
=== … defend his colleague Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-TX) from accusations that he led Capitol rioters on a “reconnaissance tour” through the halls and security checkpoints on the Capitol grounds …
“That accusation needed to be proven false,” … ===
Poor Coverup Rodney, you didn’t prove anything. You just created more fluff for your coverup campaign. We’ve now seen the video and Rod, ordinary tourists don’t take pictures of those hallways and security checkpoints. I walked those hallways many times and they are ordinary hallways that engender any artistic impression, but they do lead to the Capitol. If Loudermilk didn’t do anything wrong, why can’t he answer questions.
- Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:39 pm:
=== Rodney may need Dems who crossover to boost Bailey ===
Not happening.
Bailey is edging toward 50 percent in a five person contest.
Bailey, Sullivan and Rabine are surging while Irvin is in free fall and Schimpf is still in the starting gate.
Why would any Democrat bother?
- Mistake - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 12:47 pm:
I think Davis and Irvin campaigns have both made a mistake in trying to out-MAGA the MAGAs and paint their opponents as closet Democrats. As Rich mentioned, there is too much money flowing to pull that off. While their numbers are dwindling, there are still some “main stream” Republicans who would respond to a campaign that focuses on an elected official’s track record. All of the negative campaigning in these two races has been about the other candidate lying and I am the true conservative. It is a huge turnoff for the non-MAGA Repubs and more importantly, it isn’t working.
- Lincoln Lad - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 1:04 pm:
The self destruction of Rodney Davis… losing to Mary Miller while running a campaign built on her home turf likely assures the loss.
- Stormsw7706 - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 1:15 pm:
I was going to cross over for Davis. I find Miller to be repugnant and she makes no effort to govern. Too partisan to even advocate for her old district in the infrastructure bill. She is just a firebomber. Rodney met this candidates history by jumping off the crazy cliff. Has he been cloned? Where is the real Rodney Davis?
- Cool Papa Bell - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 1:57 pm:
=Where is the real Rodney Davis?=
How long have you been paying attention to Rodney? 2016? 2018? 2020?
The real Rodney Davis is standing right in front of you.
- Do It - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 2:27 pm:
The Chamber having muscle is like Mike Z being a genius. The facts support neither.
The Chamber a yesteryear relic in todays GOP and Z is a first ballot shoe-in for the “Doing Less With More Hall of Fame”.
- Baloneymous - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 2:37 pm:
===Davis-Irvin would have had a solid shot with Griffin’s money.===
A Demmer-Bourne ticket may have been decent as well.
- Ainsley Hayes - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 2:56 pm:
“Bailey is edging toward 50 percent in a five person contest.”
Source?
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 3:35 pm:
Somewhere, Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan is cursing her luck
- zatoichi - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 3:42 pm:
Option A: Davis
Option B: Miller
Option C: Neither
Alex, I’ll take C for $600.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 4:09 pm:
Why wouldn’t the most extreme candidate win? That’s what has been happening now for years in both parties. Get rid of the closed primaries, we need more voters choosing these candidates.
- Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 4:36 pm:
Agree with jibba 100 percent. I don’t care who wins in a race between right wing nut job and wannabe right wing nut job. I hope it’s close as possible so we can see which one whines most about accepting vs challenging election results.
- Just Sayin - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 6:07 pm:
==On June 29th me thinks Rodney will wake-up and wish he had stayed in the 13th CD….the real Rodney would give Nikki B a good run.==
Or on the other end, Nikki B wishing she had moved to the 17th CD–either back home to Peoria or better yet, anywhere in Rock Island County–instead of the 13th.
- Tallone - Tuesday, Jun 21, 22 @ 7:53 pm:
My own feeling Is that Rodney is the best candidate for the ational interest, given the overwhelming redness of the district. So we sink lower and lower into national madness with Miller.