- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 5:09 am:
FOP-backed candidates who were really Republicans running as Democrats, went down handily here in Chicago with Martwick and LaPointe easily crushing them. Gotta come up with a better plan next time, Catanzara.
Glad Valencia lost for SoS too. Blatant steering of business to her husband eliminated her as a viable candidate in my mind.
A Trump endorsement is worth a lot more than I realized. I think often I get too much info from the left media where everyone hates him but the reality is people are voting for his endorsements in.
I honestly never would have though Bailey and Miller would have won.
On the GOP side, Bailey and Proft are now the kings of the party.
On the Dem side, big winners appear to be the Chuy Garcia and Melinda Bush organizations.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:18 am:
Terrible night for establishment RINO’s in this state. But the ILGOP asked for it by strongly opposing the insurrection impeachment, rolling out the red carpet for the ex-president and his type of politics. There is no worse candidate in this environment than Irvin.
Dude - his endorsement record is pretty solid. Axios of all outlets had a good write-up about it recently. Trump has some high-profile whiffs (like Georgia) but otherwise his endorsement carries weight. The real test will be Eric Greitens in Missouri.
I think it is pretty sad that pritzker went after all of the committeemen and women, many of them who hue has known and have helped him over the years. Why he is so focused on Robin Kelly is beyond me and I believe is a really bad look if he actually wants the convention in Illinois. I will also add that had DURBIN not endorsed him early, JB may not have won his initial election. I think this illustrates how ruthless he is. He is entirely a political animal at this point.
Holy cow, did Marie Newman get her fanny kicked by Casten.
Casten: 68% of votes (42,768)
Newman: 29% (18,102)
In 2020, Newman got 52,384 votes. IOW, she got 34% of the votes she got in 2020. Just an unbelievable rejection by the voters in which she had a larger existing base over Casten.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:43 am:
FOP, Catanzara lose big.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:45 am:
Turnout was awful!! Zalewski may have won if turnout match the 2018 numbers. Spitballing the Casten Newman race. When ahe ran in 2018, there were about 60K more votes cast than last night. The 9 city precincts had about 10% turnout. This is shameful. If you do not vote, do NOT complain about the elected officials and policy that is enacted.
What, if anything, be made of the fact that the number of votes cast for a governor in the Republican primary was just 20,000 or so less than in the Democratic primary? Does that give anyone pause for the possible closeness of votes in the general election? Can that be extrapolated down the ballot?
I really cannot believe that Bailey and Miller won their primaries. I really thought that Trumps’ effect on the voters would have lessened by now. I also really thought people in the GOP would have returned to the traditionally Republican platform by now too. I must really have my head buried in the sand.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:58 am:
GOP establishment leaders should resign, starting with Jim Durkin.
ILGOP-you sold yourselves like a two dollar you-know-what to Rauner, only to see your party be reduced to a joke.
Then, Pritzker plays you like a chump. Bailey and DeVore leading your ticket.
Became a Dem over twenty years ago, mainly due to George Ryan. Ryan now looks like Paul Simon.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:02 am:
It was a great night to be a pro-choice Democratic woman and a great night to be a pro-Trump, rightwing conservative.
Trump and Roe v. Wade are having a polarizing effect, and there’s not much room in the middle for anyone.
“You’re either on the bus, or you’re under the bus” to paraphrase Ken Kesey for these times.
Looking toward the fall, I expect Bailey will do better than most folks’ Worst Case Scenerio. His soldiers will march to the polls in a straight line and vote.
There just are not nearly enough of them. He won’t lose by 20 points but he will probably lose by atleast ten, and it will likely just get worse from there for the GOP ticket.
Rochford and O’Brien are both gonna roll over their far-right opponents for Supreme Court.
Business groups and wealthy Republicans not named Uhlein don’t want to get within ten yards of Darren Bailey. It is not clear that Uhlein gains anything by spending more money. He has won control of the IL GOP, which is what he came to do. He sure doesnt want to help Durkin elect moderate Republicans, and Uhlein’s legislative candidates are in safe seats. If Bailey gets 45% whether Uhlein spends $50M or just rides the guaranteed free media (outrageous stuff gets outrageous attention), why spend $50M?
Especially when you know that for every $1 Uhlein spends, JB is willing to spend $3.
Don’t get me wrong, the GOP is gonna talk about crime in Chicago and gas prices for four months, and they believe its a winning message.
I don’t, because I don’t think voters think the Governor is responsible for pumping their gas or patrolling their neighborhood. The GOP is throwing haymakers, but it has not figured out how to make these punches land on JB.
- Alice Childress - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:06 am:
For those who commented about Trump’s ability to move votes, you’re not completely off track. But you’re off by 4-5 years. Those who voted for Miller already made their minds up years ago and Davis was never going to get those voters. My point is, and we all see it, the downstate GOP is not the Conservative party of old days. It has become quite radical.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:07 am:
Ken Griffin should sue anyone associated with Irvin campaign for political malpractice, including Irvin, Mike Z and Dennis Cook.
- someonehastosayit - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:16 am:
===It was a great night to be a pro-choice Democratic woman===
What’s really remarkable is how MAGA candidates were repudiated yesterday in Colorado, Utah, and even Mississippi, yet Illinois gave them its full-throated endorsement. It’s almost like we’re living in a different timeline from other states, and being the lone member of the Congressional delegation unwilling to criticize Putin is somehow a plus with primary voters.
“Political Animal” Commenter Bad Look above is ON it. JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him somewhat to the detriment of his being perceived as running to actually serve his Illinois constituents and supporters. Gov. Pritzker’s comms team is going to be challenged by this the more Illinoisans catch on to what’s going on. Wish he had a better opponent in November.
Bailey getting 45% is a fantasy. He will be lucky to break the Keyes mark.
I am a loyal Republican and will vote for our nominee. But many of my fellow partisans won’t be able to do that. And any voter claiming any modicum of partisan independence will run for the hills when they see the Bailey gang coming.
- Predecessorage - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:28 am:
==Bad look==
Durbin hasn’t endoresed JB? Little concern. Durbin’s time has come and gone. If he had a primary yesterday he would have lost.
I awoke with the chilling realization that every anti-choice person…in the world… is going to donate to Bailey. This will be the most expensive governor race ever.
Pritzker got the opponent he wanted, but I think Irvin would have been the easier race. You can criticize Bailey’s views but he’s consistent, unlike Irvin who struggled to give clear answers to even the simplest of questions. Bailey could siphon off suburban voters angry about taxes and crime. Bailey will energize the Republican base and turn them out. I don’t think he beats Pritzker but do think he’s tougher than Irvin.
===JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him somewhat to the detriment of his being perceived as running to actually serve his Illinois constituents and supporters.===
Meh.
Pritzker listed for almost 3 minutes gosh he served constituents with all his accomplishments.
The one thing you can’t say is that the ILGA and governor are doing things.
At the funeral for the Illinois GOP will anyone mention that even with DGA and Pritzker’s massive spending, the Republican candidates received 37,000 more votes than JB yesterday?
Brad Fritts showed hard work and a big clan pulling for you beats out endorsements.
- Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:43 am:
The GOP kinda proved how unhappy a lot of downstate is with the way Illinois is going.
The moderates were whipped up on by the “fringe”
Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.
-Ken Griffin should sue anyone associated with Irvin campaign-
Ken would have to look in the mirror. His “consultants” convinced him of Irvin’s potential .
- Graduated College Student - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:44 am:
@thoughts matter
Republicans had many more contested races on the statewide ballot and still more people pulled Democratic ballots? That shouldn’t make any Republican feel good about winning statewide in November.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:53 am:
There are few if any moderate GOP left. Those who took Griffin’s money may think they’re moderate, but no one who sided with many billions of dollars in deliberate damage, to bust unions, can have that title.
“Bailey did not win because of Trump endorsement. Trump endorsed Bailey *because* he was going to win. Full stop.”
While I think that is true, I do think Bailey benefitted from constantly working to associate himself with Trump throughout his campaign. The endorsement was a formality. The association with Trump and his brand help Bailey a lot.
Joe Hackler got stomped by Jennifer Korte in the 112th GOP primary. Her claim to fame being an anti-masker & anti-vaxxer.
The most interesting outcome of this race for me was seeing Plummer and other incumbents jump on the DeVore/Korte bandwagon. They all have to start worrying about being primaried from the right.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:04 am:
=== Unless your name is Marie Newman ===
Yes, all the usual caveats for folks in the midst of ethical scandals.
If Casten were not 100% pro-choice himself and renowned for taking out Roskam, the heir to Henry Hyde and most pro-life Republican in Illinois…
I had no idea Bailey would carry the nomination so handily, but can’t say I’m surprised about Irvin’s performance. I never understood how people thought that someone with his record and background could win in today’s very far-right Republican party.
So I guess the Illinois Republican Party decided to put Trump on the 2022 midterm ballot. Bailey, Miller, DeVore, etc. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time, and I guess cognitive dissonance kicks in.
==This liberal pulled an R ballot yesterday and voted for Bailey. I bet I’m not the only one who did that.==
Gridlock - please explain why you did that and are you worried it will backfire on you? My assumption is that you felt Bailey would be the one most likely to lose on the general election. But what if he wins?
I think the general election will be a closer contest than people think. There seems to be a growing segment of voters that feel they’ve been given free rein to let their innermost non diversity thoughts dictate their actions.
I was surprised how many of the media outlets bought in to the false, unsubstantiated “Sullivan Surge” narrative. Polls showed him consistently in the teens and with undecideds he looked to end up in the mid-teens. He did and lost by 40 points. Yet every time he was mentioned last night that I heard, especially on WGN, they claimed he had been surging in the polls lately. Baloney. Never happened. Lazy reporting.
Any reports yet on the turnout rates for registered Republicans and Democrats? That might be important to consider before thinking about the November probabilities.
We have open primaries, no one registers with a party affiliation
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:26 am:
In McHenry County, the biggest race was for sheriff. The conservative candidate beat the right wing candidate.
Either the right wing isn’t as strong as I thought or a lot of Dems pulled a GOP ballot to vote for the more moderate.
Dems caught a break that Sorensen beat Wallace in the 17th. That is going to be one of the most competitive districts in the country in November and Sorensen’s name recognition in the Quad Cities will help.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:31 am:
I share T.J.’s wondering if Illinois is on a different timeline than Colorado or Utah for not repudiating MAGA candidates. But Miller, at least, won in a very rural district (Quincy the only small city?), so her case is not easy to compare to a statewide race in Colorado.
It seems too often the Republican culture warriors (who don’t even know what battle they are wandering into) have begun to dominate their party’s air space. Being a minority party seems to harden the official Republican party stance in Illinois around talking points that don’t reflect accurate, thoughtful consideration of issues (like criminal justice reform or covid restrictions) so much as a united front of opposition to the Democrats.
A quote from Irvin’s concession speech is quite interesting.Irvin in his concession speech.
== There is no actual us versus them, there is only America. When we realize that, we will realize we are stronger together than we are apart. ==
That message might have played well for a Republican running in the General. But I cannot Imagine a Bailey and DeVore team using a message on unifying Illinois. So Independent voters will get to choose between a Divide and Conquer Republican platform, or a Stay the Course/Equality for All platform.
I think Democrats are safe, even though Miller will win in a landslide down here.
The Willis loss is a hard one to swallow. She is a good person and knew her district well. Kudos to Hernandez and the Chuy operation.
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:35 am:
Truly, when is JB Pritzker going to stop trying to win elections and do things with the power he obtains by winning elections? It’s so unseemly. What a bad guy.
@ OW - Regarding open primaries, I would still think there is some sort of tracking regarding voter participation in primaries. Is that not the case? If so, it would seem easy to do a postmortem at the county level, I would think.
PS - thanks for always sharing your experienced wisdom here. As a political novice, I appreciate it.
Greg Hart and state rep Deb Conroy will face off for DuPage County Board Chairman in November. That should be a good one to watch, especially with Bailey, Devore and company at the top of the ticket. Could you imagine if the Dems keep their board majority AND win the chairman position? You can call it BluePage.
Amusing to see Jason Plummer carrying water for Tom DeVore this election cycle. The GOP incumbents only have to worry about primaries now. The Democratic Party down here is almost non-existent.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:38 am:
Raise your hand if you predicted Dan Brady would be the person to eventually bring the ILGOP to relevance
JB is toast come November, Durkin is toast come this morning,as I called it, Welter went down hard, not even a close race. Profit is the new ILGOP leader ahem I mean Bailey….
If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it? Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party. If that is true does Bailey try to close the deal with ads targeting them? IIRC Rauner managed to beat Quinn by peeling off enough votes in the black community. Appreciate anyone’s thoughts. Love the comments. And the site, of course.
What is done is get voter files and sort by how many times, (frequency) and how often (intensity) a voter pulls a ballot from one party.
In an open primary state, it allows to see real shifts over time, a snapshot, or both, but the statewide GOP wins, as an example, likely saw no significant move where “Dems” crossed. Bailey, DeVore, they *are* the GOP, aided or not.
=== JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him===
If JB has actual national ambitions for a race as early as 2024 or even 2028 he is not making the right early moves to properly prepare for a national campaign. He’s not making wrong moves, but the moves he is making are not even the tip of the iceberg for what needs to be going on unless he has created a dark money PAC that he never talks about. This isn’t a reflection on how Pritzker is doing as Governor and how that helps him have a national profile, but it takes a lot more work to be a successful candidate in a national primary than having name recognition. Let’s pick on Beto O’Rourke, a household name whose presidential ambitions went no where because he hadn’t put the proper effort it. I can give everyone a lot more examples. Someone can’t just parachute into a few early states several months out from their primaries or caucuses and expect to win over a person who has put years long effort in. Doing otherwise is uncommon, and the times you are thinking it happened may simply be missing most of the iceberg of effort that went into it.
===Dems caught a break that Sorensen beat Wallace in the 17th.===
Wallace’s campaign effort was lackadaisical and embarrassing. It was her race to lose and she barely assembled a campaign. She had excellent performance for a candidate that barely raised any money and if her campaign had resources to invest in actually campaigning and had started fund raising and spending in that district, oh, 12 months ago, we would be looking at a different result.
We can talk about Eric Sorensen’s name recognition, and that certainly did help, but when you look at the numbers Eric did the work when the other candidates were waiting for others to campaign for them. Congratulations to Mr. Sorensen.
Shout out to all the election judges, coordinators, poll workers, campaigners, and people who voted yesterday. Some really really good humans lost races yesterday, and some really really good humans won. Onward to the good humans winning in November.
“Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.” Maybe among the conservative Republicans that’s true, but many of the rest of us are right where we were in 2016.
- Reformed Public Servant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:47 am:
===There wasn’t a significant statewide race where alleged crossover voting made a change to the outcome.===
Oswego Willy is correct, as usual… from someone who helped run Dillard’s GOV primary, it wasn’t significant enough to get it done then (and it was a lot closer there than other races I’m aware of - as PQ was safe and Dems gave “blessing” to cross-over), but would love to run the data on Dem cross-over to Bailey
scorecard needed. whose endorsement did what? Pritzker, Durbin, Iris Martinez, Chuy, Victor Reyes. Also FOP/only Republican Alderman in Chicago Napolitiano….epic endorsement losing streak.
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:47 am:
==GOP establishment leaders should resign, starting with Jim Durkin.==
They might as well resign because the IL GOP has gone to POT (Party of Trumpkins). No room there for sane and sensible Old School Republicans or even those who dare to reject wacky election fraud theories. I continue to pray for a moderate center to return to Illinois and American politics, but I don’t see many hopeful signs. I am truly afraid that a Populist ultra-right-wing government will eventually gain a narrow victory nationally and then consolidate power, undermine democracy, and we will be living in a Fascist state before reasonable people can stop it from happening.
===If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it?===
I have no interest in helping the Bailey campaign brain storm. If the GOP carries the Governor’s office or any statewide race in Illinois it will be because of a failure of the Democratic Party or of a specific statewide candidate to mount a serious campaign to win office. Incumbency is great but relying on the power of incumbency, name recognition, and the campaign efforts of others is always a coin flip.
Hannibal ad Portas. He might not be able to scale the walls, or bust down the gate, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get in if you leave the gates open.
- CentralILCentrist - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:49 am:
Bigger district school/bond referendums took a hit. Smaller districts fared a bit better. Wonder how property tax reform can factor into the cards being played by school boards and legislators setting up new construction grants for school districts.
I liked having the primary later. I would rather combine primary and general in November, especially since most offices don’t have competitive generals, but it felt better than March having more distance to November.
Saying JB is toast in the general and Bailey will win is what we call ‘Wishcasting’. Not a single poll has been released since the general election has been set. JB will win by 10+ points. Get outside and touch grass Bailey supporters.
===Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party. If that is true does Bailey try to close the deal with ads targeting them?===
Well for one maybe distance himself from Trump who thinks Latinos are criminals and rapists, and then also don’t mention building a wall, or putting kids in cages, etc.
But yea, other than that, maybe Bailey can get most Latinos to vote for him and give him the edge to beat JB in November.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:54 am:
Where can we find the results of the Democratic state committeeperson races?
I think Bailey’s win had more to do with Irvin’s horribly run campaign than Trump’s endorsement. But with that block of voters, the endorsement certainly didn’t hurt.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:05 am:
One thing I can’t help wondering this a.m. is would Rodney Davis have won the GOP primary for governor with Griffin’s $50 million?
As I’ve said several times before, seeing Mayor Astroturf and the California hedge capitalist basically do nothing but waste tens of millions of dollars brings a smile to my face.
-What are the chances of Newman launching a “political comeback” in two years and perhaps running for the GA?-
I don’t think she is going away. However, I also don’t think she is much for self-analysis or introspection. This crushing defeat shows a lot of voters just don’t like her, but I don’t expect her to change.
I’m inclined to think he would’ve won the nomination. But I also think Brady is hoping for a red surge to help down ballot races versus trying to go up against the billionaire (even hypothetically with Ken’s money).
One of the biggest takeaways from last night, only for me is…
The times, they are changed.
The times aren’t “a-changing”
They done changed.
It’s not “crossover” voters or “meddling” campaigns… the times done changed… for Dems, their party, for the GOP, “their” party… there’s not evolving, things have changed.
It’s “new days” everywhere; statewideS, the GA caucuses, all four caucuses… Congress… new days.
Evolve or die… or move on from what you knew was true… but like sharks… standing still here, in the today, the now, in Illinois… standing still is the end.
==After the pitiful showing, would Irvin get re-elected in Aurora? Or is he done? ==
Yes.
Yes, he will get re-elected in Aurora, the municipal election is 3 years away. Using your same “logic” Toni Preckwinkle should have been done after losing her race for mayor, or to use a more local example, Lauzen should have been done after he lost his congressional primary.
Speaking as a resident, there isn’t anyone who is going to go ‘gosh darn, he lost a primary so therefore I am not voting for him again for mayor’. Aurora doesn’t punish ambition, even if it fails. Remember Oberweis is from the area.
Dem State Committeeperson info: “The clout of each member of the state central committee is based on how many voters pulled a Democratic ballot on Tuesday in each district. That will take time to calculate.”
Is Bailey’s win a sign of (a) MAGA dominance or (b) Pritzker/DGA support for Bailey + Irvin incompetence? I’m hoping its the latter and fear its the former.
=== If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it? ====
I don’t for the most part, but here is how it could happen.
Inflation remains high, yeah that isn’t the governor’s fault, but people blame politicians for that stuff.
They figure out a way to drive down turnout in the city and suburbs (likely using a combination of COVID over-reaction, the economy, general annoyance with politicians)
Drive-up turnout south of I-80 with a combination of (Chicago bad, Illinois is an abortion destination, they don’t care about you and the current crop of ‘they are coming for your kids’ stuff)
Pound him hard on COVID in the state vets facilities (it worked on Rauner with Leagonares, yeah it’s different, elections are not about subtle)
Pound him about national ambitions (he’s gonna spend a year in Iowa and/or New Hampshire that sort of stuff)
Illinois seems to have a center of gravity that slows down its swings in attitude compared to the pendulum of the country overall. We are slower to decline, and slower to recover through major economic cycles.
Nationally there have been big movements among Republicans toward middle-age Trumpian insurrection politics, and Young Progressive revolutionary politics. Today we see signs of these swings arriving at a slower pace in Illinois.
Moves toward the margins will make governing even more difficult than it has already been.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:44 am:
===Marie Newman owns a condo in the West Loop. She should run in IL-07 next cycle. Yesterday showed that Danny Davis is vulnerable.===
I think I almost got as many votes as Sam Cahnman did yesterday when I ran for precinct committeeman (unopposed) twenty years ago. His opposition research needs its own filing cabinet.
===Bourne, on the other hand… she should go on vacation for two weeks, no “phone”, no “news”, really think what exactly does the next 6 months look like?===
Agree. Outside of politics, I wish good things for Avery Bourne. Politically, she and the other Raunerites need to go. They are clearly culpable in the miserable condition the IL Republican Party finds itself.
-Yesterday showed that Danny Davis is vulnerable.-
It did, but I doubt he gets the message. Time for party officials to have a sit down with him and encourage him to retire gracefully after this next term.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:54 am:
Thanks, Anon221 and Amalia - on the reasons to be patient about awaiting Democratic statecommitteeperson election results.
I find little zeal in supporting a candidate that doesn’t have a good answer for why they weren’t among those that finally stood up to Speaker Madigan when the writing was on the wall. I find even less zeal in supporting a candidate that wants to try to parse their way to winning votes in their district by toying with the rights of my sisters. Parents do not own their children.
Just because the GOP has become a party of no exceptions does not mean the Democratic Party needs to build a coalition with positions that were squarely anti-choice just 4 or 6 years ago. It’s great to have a coalition party. It’s great to build an intersectional policy agenda. The Democratic Party needs to be something other than “not Republican” and something other than “not fascist” and perhaps that is why so many supporters are frustrated when Democratic Majorities and Democratic executive branches compromise within themselves and fail to deliver policy positions that are more popular than sunshine on a cloudy day.
I don’t believe this has been mentioned. Although the order of the Republican gubernatorial primary was correct in the latest polls, the margins and percentages were way off. I hope, at some point, that there is a discussion on the polling of elections in Illinois. It certainly seems like the undercount of Bailey supporters was extremely significant. Will that carry over to the general? This would certainly make a good discussion.
===there is a discussion on the polling of elections in Illinois. It certainly seems like the undercount of Bailey supporters was extremely significant.===
(Sigh)
Polls are a snapshot.
The surging voters were Bailey voters, undecideds broke for Bailey.
There’s no conspiracy that polling was off, voters like to pick and be with winners. Six polls showed Bailey leading, the surge existed with Bailey.
I’m in Danny Davis’s district and have disliked him for years for many reasons including his do-nothing attitude and his Farrakhan-adjacent positions/speeches.
Yet I voted for him and campaigned for him.
I believe Kina Collins embodies all that is wrong with the Dem Party. The “squad” and their ilk (including many but not all who label themselves progressives) are incredibly bad for the party and the country. Perhaps a bit overstated, but I blame them for driving at least some rational people into the arms of MAGA-crazy.
I base much of my views on the daily emails I get from Justice Democrats.
Congrats to Alexi Giannoulias, who ran a focused, disciplined and winning campaign. Seemed to me he worked his butt off and took nothing for granted. His opponent……yikes. She needs to do some deep reflection. No one is entitled to elected office. Browbeating endorsements out of high profile elected officials is no substitute for hard work and honest, sincere messaging.. She should really think about that heading into the municipal elections in February.
Carbondale Chronicle - are you suggesting some type of election fraud because the results didn’t match the polls? If not, sorry for reading it that way. But, if so, you really ought to think before you spout that stuff. We are in enough trouble in this country due to unsubstantiated allegations of vote fraud that we don’t need more. And the idea that polls not matching results is evidence of fraud is naive to the point of insane
- former cubs fan - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:12 am:
What McGuppin said x 100. Alexi ran a great race, and will win in november. im hopeful somebody goes after valencia in her next city election. she is vulnerable.
With my comment, I am not suggesting a conspiracy theory. I am only suggesting that as we continue to see polling results not as accurate as we have seen in the past, it may be a good time to have a discussion. My only suggestion is to have a discussion regarding if we are going to continue to see polling data may not be as accurate as in the past and what steps can be taken to have more accurate results.
@ WestBurbs == Is Bailey’s win a sign of (a) MAGA dominance or (b) Pritzker/DGA support for Bailey + Irvin incompetence? ==
Warning: Controversial Thoughts Follow
In my estimate (which is naive), Bailey was destined to win from the beginning. He was out in front before the primaries even began in earnest, with his anti-mask song and dance. So was DeVore. Even without Trump, Bailey was making a name for himself as an anti-governmental authority, authoritarian member of that same government. That message plays well among a large share of modern Republican voters.
In addition, West Central, Eastern Bloc, and Southern Republicans in Illinois represent unyielding political blocs, and rule the GOP in this state today. Even when a poll or two suggested Irvin might be leading, they were always within the margin of error, and indicated a huge “undecided” vote count. That should have been telling.
As a sociologist who studies race in America, I was never convinced an African American, suburban mayor from upstate could garner enough votes downstate to be competitive in the Republican Primary. The large number of undecided voters reinforced my hunch. There is an ongoing and historical angst regarding race relations in much of this region I call home. So for me, it is not unreasonable to question if race played a subliminal roll as well in Irvin never developing a significant, commanding lead. Rather, I think the other candidates just needed to be sorted.
Historically, (e.g., Harvey Gantt of NC and Douglas Wilder of VA) African American candidates have often ended up with fewer statewide votes than predicted in early polling). In those races, a significant number of white democratic voters said they would vote for the African American candidate, but ultimately did not do so.
Not that Irvin didn’t escort himself out the door. But that theoretical door was already open, as I see it.
Candidates should think they can win. Otherwise what’s the point.
Thinking it and a path to it sometimes are not congruent
===so what can he do to get enough votes to do that===
Bailey lost me. As did Rauner. As did Trump.
Pritzker’s “education” blitz in ads will make it difficult, women, suburban women, persons of color… where does Bailey build off of his religious… and MAGA base?
==Appreciate the thoughts but I guess my question still stands. I assume Bailey believes he can win so what can he do to get enough votes to do that? ==
If you’ve got A few ten million, I know some people who can sell you an answer.
@ OW ==where does Bailey build off of his religious… and MAGA base?==
That is what I am trying to determine and I don’t believe it is possible either but if I were running the Bailey campaign I would try and peel off Hispanic voters who are family oriented and church going.
As they say, my two cents.
- Nuke The Whales - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:47 am:
==Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party==
Nothing validates John Kenneth Gailbraith’s view of conventional wisdom than this Dems in Disarray argument.
Lots of smart thoughts and good questions on this thread.
That’s all.
– MrJM
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:49 am:
@WestBurbs - I used to live in the Danny Davis district and voted against him every chance I got if for no other reason than due to his prominent role in that looney tunes Moonie coronation ceremony in the Capitol.
I am not on the Justice Dems email list but it is hard for me to imagine that what is in there is somehow crazier than the beliefs of the Moonies, $cientologists NOI folks who Danny Davis associates himself with.
@RonBurgundy - The time for party officials to nudge Danny Davis into retirement was before this election. Hopefully the Dem leadership gerontocracy that propped him for another cycle gets swept away along with him next time.
I watched WGN’s coverage last night. A few times there were allusions made that the Eastern bloc has a grievance for their treatment in the state.
But no one would describe the specific grievance.
So what is it? An Effingham resident can enjoy a blunt like anyone living in Chicago. A Neogan can get $15 per hour for his labor just like an Auroran. With a little paper work the can own a gun and get a CCL just like someone living in Westchester.
So where is the grievance? Is it just cultural? Is it that economically their region is not as successful (that has a lot more to do with US policy than state, the state does what it can by keeping the prisons in diverse regions.)
The only impact organized labor will have in November is cash for Democrats and JB doesn’t need it. The trades let the Democrats pass their infrastructure projects and protect there rights to collectively bargain for wages and benefits but they vote republican.
- don the legend - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:15 am:
==Griffen should have run Bourne for Governor and Irvin as HER running mate.
Griffin could have run Demmer and Bourne and that would have been as good a combo as anything.==
Either way, JB and the DGA would have boosted Bailey’s campaign and the result would have been the same.
- Nearly Normal - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:30 am:
WGLT had an interesting segment on the fact there are GOP voters in McLean County that still believe the election fraud claims. It’s not just a faction, it is in the leadership of the county GOP party and most of its members. Logic and facts do not faze their belief in the lies and in Trump.
- BilboSwaggins - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:34 am:
-The GOP kinda proved how unhappy a lot of downstate is with the way Illinois is going.
The moderates were whipped up on by the “fringe”
Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.-
Anyone with a pulse could have told you in 2016 that this was the case now, and it has only gotten stronger. The GOP, be it in Illinois or any other state, is now the party of Trump, MAGA, and lunatic conspiracy theories.
- Other 47th ward guy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:08 pm:
In the House 13th, I don’t think the story in the Hoan Huynh - Eileen Dordek race is quite one of shoe leather vs. endorsements, Dordek campaigned relentlessly at the doors, with a good number of volunteers. She did the same when she ran for 47th ward alder against Matt Martin. I am not in Huynh’s world, but his bio suggests the story might be that his career has been spent making more contacts with grassroots leaders, whereas Eileen has focused on the grasstops with Personal PAC and the super-grassroots with door knocking - she hasn’t done as much at that middle level with leaders who have credibility with lots of voters.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:18 pm:
Can anyone with a long political memory tell me a time when the Illinois Republican party didn’t put out talking points that lack accuracy and a sense for nuance (e.g., on recent criminal justice reform and on the governor’s covid responses)? It seems that as a minority party, the Republicans have opted to be a united front behind oppositional and sometimes unsettlingly inaccurate talking points, instead of being thoughtful contributors to conversation about the common good in the state (speaking as individual legislators, not just as a bloc). I see these Republican talking points in emails from my state rep and senator.
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:28 pm:
==Griffen should have run Bourne for Governor and Irvin as HER running mate.==
I agree with that 100 percent. She would have done better. That being said, I still don’t know if it would have been good enough to beat Bailey in the current political climate. I still think Pritzker will have an easier time against Bailey than any of the other GOP candidates, yet I worry that something will happen to change the odds. I’ll continue to pray for the defeat of Darren and all the other Trumpublicans and cast my single vote against the ones I can in November. I know Mary is almost guaranteed a win, barring divine intervention, but at least I will no longer have to be embarrassed by having her as my Representative.
Just as an interesting observation, I just noticed a ginormous American flag flying from a crane boom at the home of Darren’s parents on Route 45 in Louisville. I wish I had one like that, only I would be flying mine upsidedown right now.
I hope not. He’s my congress critter and I like him.
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:49 pm:
@ H-W
That is an excellent analysis.
A lot of white conservatives love black candidates as long as they can affirm their beliefs (Tim Scott, David Clarke, Clarence Thomas, etc.). When Irvin said “All lives matter,” a lot of white people thought “Yes - a black man who gets it.” When the footage was shown of him saying the opposite, the MAGAs turned on him bigly.
Conservatives usually vote for candidates that vote in more than one GOP primary per decade. Irvin’s color didn’t matter, folks rightly saw him as just an opportunist backed by a billionaire.
Hi, does Tom Devore really have Freedom and Equality tatooed on his arms? Asking for a friend.
- thisjustinagain - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:57 pm:
1) I’m left wondering if some candidates ever a) realized they were running for office (Irwin), or b) had absolutely no chance of being elected (various Cook County challengers, and JB’s Dem challenger).
Some campaigns fizzled, some never had a chance from the start. Seems their advisors failed both a and b candidates.
2) Anybody notice that Alexi got less votes to win than Brady (420,650 to 540,745)? Based on that result, Brady would have won the general election by some 80,000 votes.
-2) Anybody notice that Alexi got less votes to win than Brady (420,650 to 540,745)? Based on that result, Brady would have won the general election by some 80,000 votes.-
Anybody notice that Alexi had 3 opponents taking up votes and Brady had 1?
Yep, one Dem primary ballot is acceptable. Many folks have crossed over when there is an interesting race on the other side, or not much happening in the GOP primary. I did it in 2018 and lightning didn’t strike me.
I am a Democrat, and I crossed over once to vote for a Republican I do not even like. I made an open promise that if she would vote to override Rauner’s last budget veto, I would support her in the primary. She did, and I kept my word. I did so for symbolic value - I gave my word, publicly. People crossover for all sorts of reasons, some of which is not even remotely interloping or misplaced loyalties.
Heck, I’m “better” than you, I’ve never voted in a Dem primary… ever.
According to your ridiculousness, I’m more of a Republican than you, and you’re questioning me?
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 4:06 pm:
I’ve never voted in a primary election in the almost 40 years that I have been eligible to vote except for a nonpartisan ballot when there was a referendum question. I had to argue with the election judges for several minutes that they had to give me a nonpartisan ballot until finally one of them conceded the point. I’ve been tempted to vote in primaries against candidates that I found particularly repugnant, but never brought myself to do it.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 5:09 am:
FOP-backed candidates who were really Republicans running as Democrats, went down handily here in Chicago with Martwick and LaPointe easily crushing them. Gotta come up with a better plan next time, Catanzara.
Glad Valencia lost for SoS too. Blatant steering of business to her husband eliminated her as a viable candidate in my mind.
- Galway Bay - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 5:11 am:
53M to come in third?! Dillard having a good laugh today. And really happy for Dan Brady. He was out spent but not out worked.
- Blue Dog - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 5:41 am:
The Schimpf team was out of its league. Perhaps the best message and obviously the worst messaging.
- DougChicago - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:03 am:
Has the funeral for the ILGOP been scheduled?
- The Dude - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:03 am:
A Trump endorsement is worth a lot more than I realized. I think often I get too much info from the left media where everyone hates him but the reality is people are voting for his endorsements in.
I honestly never would have though Bailey and Miller would have won.
- SpiDem - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:16 am:
On the GOP side, Bailey and Proft are now the kings of the party.
On the Dem side, big winners appear to be the Chuy Garcia and Melinda Bush organizations.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:18 am:
Terrible night for establishment RINO’s in this state. But the ILGOP asked for it by strongly opposing the insurrection impeachment, rolling out the red carpet for the ex-president and his type of politics. There is no worse candidate in this environment than Irvin.
- Sports Stooge - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:19 am:
Dude - his endorsement record is pretty solid. Axios of all outlets had a good write-up about it recently. Trump has some high-profile whiffs (like Georgia) but otherwise his endorsement carries weight. The real test will be Eric Greitens in Missouri.
- Sports Stooge - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:24 am:
Rodney should have run in the 13th.
- Bad look - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:30 am:
I think it is pretty sad that pritzker went after all of the committeemen and women, many of them who hue has known and have helped him over the years. Why he is so focused on Robin Kelly is beyond me and I believe is a really bad look if he actually wants the convention in Illinois. I will also add that had DURBIN not endorsed him early, JB may not have won his initial election. I think this illustrates how ruthless he is. He is entirely a political animal at this point.
- Montrose - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:31 am:
Delia’s massive win makes me so happy. And Kina Collins gave Davis a real race for the first time in forever.
- Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:32 am:
Can’t help thinking DeVore won’t accept the November results when he loses to Raoul.
- Old IL Dude - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:37 am:
Holy cow, did Marie Newman get her fanny kicked by Casten.
Casten: 68% of votes (42,768)
Newman: 29% (18,102)
In 2020, Newman got 52,384 votes. IOW, she got 34% of the votes she got in 2020. Just an unbelievable rejection by the voters in which she had a larger existing base over Casten.
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:43 am:
FOP, Catanzara lose big.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:45 am:
Irvin spent $50m to get 15% and finish 3rd place.
biggest flop in Illinois political history.
- Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:52 am:
The divide in Illinois politics looks quite a bit larger this morning.
- Suburban Dad - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:53 am:
Turnout was awful!! Zalewski may have won if turnout match the 2018 numbers. Spitballing the Casten Newman race. When ahe ran in 2018, there were about 60K more votes cast than last night. The 9 city precincts had about 10% turnout. This is shameful. If you do not vote, do NOT complain about the elected officials and policy that is enacted.
- thoughts matter - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:55 am:
What, if anything, be made of the fact that the number of votes cast for a governor in the Republican primary was just 20,000 or so less than in the Democratic primary? Does that give anyone pause for the possible closeness of votes in the general election? Can that be extrapolated down the ballot?
I really cannot believe that Bailey and Miller won their primaries. I really thought that Trumps’ effect on the voters would have lessened by now. I also really thought people in the GOP would have returned to the traditionally Republican platform by now too. I must really have my head buried in the sand.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 6:58 am:
GOP establishment leaders should resign, starting with Jim Durkin.
- Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:00 am:
ILGOP-you sold yourselves like a two dollar you-know-what to Rauner, only to see your party be reduced to a joke.
Then, Pritzker plays you like a chump. Bailey and DeVore leading your ticket.
Became a Dem over twenty years ago, mainly due to George Ryan. Ryan now looks like Paul Simon.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:02 am:
It was a great night to be a pro-choice Democratic woman and a great night to be a pro-Trump, rightwing conservative.
Trump and Roe v. Wade are having a polarizing effect, and there’s not much room in the middle for anyone.
“You’re either on the bus, or you’re under the bus” to paraphrase Ken Kesey for these times.
Looking toward the fall, I expect Bailey will do better than most folks’ Worst Case Scenerio. His soldiers will march to the polls in a straight line and vote.
There just are not nearly enough of them. He won’t lose by 20 points but he will probably lose by atleast ten, and it will likely just get worse from there for the GOP ticket.
Rochford and O’Brien are both gonna roll over their far-right opponents for Supreme Court.
Business groups and wealthy Republicans not named Uhlein don’t want to get within ten yards of Darren Bailey. It is not clear that Uhlein gains anything by spending more money. He has won control of the IL GOP, which is what he came to do. He sure doesnt want to help Durkin elect moderate Republicans, and Uhlein’s legislative candidates are in safe seats. If Bailey gets 45% whether Uhlein spends $50M or just rides the guaranteed free media (outrageous stuff gets outrageous attention), why spend $50M?
Especially when you know that for every $1 Uhlein spends, JB is willing to spend $3.
Don’t get me wrong, the GOP is gonna talk about crime in Chicago and gas prices for four months, and they believe its a winning message.
I don’t, because I don’t think voters think the Governor is responsible for pumping their gas or patrolling their neighborhood. The GOP is throwing haymakers, but it has not figured out how to make these punches land on JB.
- Alice Childress - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:06 am:
For those who commented about Trump’s ability to move votes, you’re not completely off track. But you’re off by 4-5 years. Those who voted for Miller already made their minds up years ago and Davis was never going to get those voters. My point is, and we all see it, the downstate GOP is not the Conservative party of old days. It has become quite radical.
- David Thompson - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:07 am:
Ken Griffin should sue anyone associated with Irvin campaign for political malpractice, including Irvin, Mike Z and Dennis Cook.
- someonehastosayit - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:16 am:
===It was a great night to be a pro-choice Democratic woman===
Unless your name is Marie Newman
- bored now - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:16 am:
Old IL Dude: newman did better than i expected…
- T.J. - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:17 am:
What’s really remarkable is how MAGA candidates were repudiated yesterday in Colorado, Utah, and even Mississippi, yet Illinois gave them its full-throated endorsement. It’s almost like we’re living in a different timeline from other states, and being the lone member of the Congressional delegation unwilling to criticize Putin is somehow a plus with primary voters.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:21 am:
“Political Animal” Commenter Bad Look above is ON it. JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him somewhat to the detriment of his being perceived as running to actually serve his Illinois constituents and supporters. Gov. Pritzker’s comms team is going to be challenged by this the more Illinoisans catch on to what’s going on. Wish he had a better opponent in November.
- DougChicago - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:23 am:
Bailey getting 45% is a fantasy. He will be lucky to break the Keyes mark.
I am a loyal Republican and will vote for our nominee. But many of my fellow partisans won’t be able to do that. And any voter claiming any modicum of partisan independence will run for the hills when they see the Bailey gang coming.
- Predecessorage - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:28 am:
==Bad look==
Durbin hasn’t endoresed JB? Little concern. Durbin’s time has come and gone. If he had a primary yesterday he would have lost.
- Crash - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:29 am:
Michael Zalewski losing seems like big news.
I don’t think he’s had an opponent in 10 years.
- Ruth Dakin - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:29 am:
I awoke with the chilling realization that every anti-choice person…in the world… is going to donate to Bailey. This will be the most expensive governor race ever.
- Independent - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:31 am:
Pritzker got the opponent he wanted, but I think Irvin would have been the easier race. You can criticize Bailey’s views but he’s consistent, unlike Irvin who struggled to give clear answers to even the simplest of questions. Bailey could siphon off suburban voters angry about taxes and crime. Bailey will energize the Republican base and turn them out. I don’t think he beats Pritzker but do think he’s tougher than Irvin.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:31 am:
===JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him somewhat to the detriment of his being perceived as running to actually serve his Illinois constituents and supporters.===
Meh.
Pritzker listed for almost 3 minutes gosh he served constituents with all his accomplishments.
The one thing you can’t say is that the ILGA and governor are doing things.
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:33 am:
At the funeral for the Illinois GOP will anyone mention that even with DGA and Pritzker’s massive spending, the Republican candidates received 37,000 more votes than JB yesterday?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:36 am:
===Gov. Pritzker’s comms team is going to be challenged by this the more Illinoisans catch on to what’s going on===
Pritzker is polling above water.
=== Wish he had a better opponent in November.===
There were 6 Choices, LOL
This is sad, but it made me laugh.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:38 am:
=== GOP establishment leaders should resign, starting with Jim Durkin.===
Why? Explain
- Left of what - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:41 am:
That Irvin concession speech was bleak. The guy just isn’t charismatic. It was always going to be bailey.
- Annon3 - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:42 am:
Brad Fritts showed hard work and a big clan pulling for you beats out endorsements.
- Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:43 am:
The GOP kinda proved how unhappy a lot of downstate is with the way Illinois is going.
The moderates were whipped up on by the “fringe”
Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.
- Steve - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:44 am:
-Ken Griffin should sue anyone associated with Irvin campaign-
Ken would have to look in the mirror. His “consultants” convinced him of Irvin’s potential .
- Graduated College Student - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:44 am:
@thoughts matter
Republicans had many more contested races on the statewide ballot and still more people pulled Democratic ballots? That shouldn’t make any Republican feel good about winning statewide in November.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:44 am:
- Bad look -
Politics ain’t beanbag.
The entitled elite whom feel they deserve free passes, they faced the voters now, and now whatever does happen, the voters spoke.
That’s not “a shame” or “bad”… unles you feel voters don’t deserve a voice.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:48 am:
The coveted endorsement of the Chicago Tribune was apparently the key to pulling Paul Schimpf’s vote total over the 4 percent threshold.
- vern - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:51 am:
Feels like a lot of people are basically at the end of Burn After Reading this morning.
(Warning, strong language in the clip)
https://youtu.be/J6VjPM5CeWs
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:53 am:
There are few if any moderate GOP left. Those who took Griffin’s money may think they’re moderate, but no one who sided with many billions of dollars in deliberate damage, to bust unions, can have that title.
- jimbo - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:56 am:
~~A Trump endorsement is worth a lot more than I realized
Meh. He waited until under 72 hours before the election. Griffin knew the polls were so bad he went ahead and left town before the election.
Bailey did not win because of Trump endorsement. Trump endorsed Bailey *because* he was going to win. Full stop.
- Grimlock - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 7:59 am:
This liberal pulled an R ballot yesterday and voted for Bailey. I bet I’m not the only one who did that.
- Montrose - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:00 am:
“Bailey did not win because of Trump endorsement. Trump endorsed Bailey *because* he was going to win. Full stop.”
While I think that is true, I do think Bailey benefitted from constantly working to associate himself with Trump throughout his campaign. The endorsement was a formality. The association with Trump and his brand help Bailey a lot.
- So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:00 am:
==Durbin’s time has come and gone. If he had a primary yesterday he would have lost.==
Some serious delusion here.
- Highland IL - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:01 am:
Joe Hackler got stomped by Jennifer Korte in the 112th GOP primary. Her claim to fame being an anti-masker & anti-vaxxer.
The most interesting outcome of this race for me was seeing Plummer and other incumbents jump on the DeVore/Korte bandwagon. They all have to start worrying about being primaried from the right.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:04 am:
=== Unless your name is Marie Newman ===
Yes, all the usual caveats for folks in the midst of ethical scandals.
If Casten were not 100% pro-choice himself and renowned for taking out Roskam, the heir to Henry Hyde and most pro-life Republican in Illinois…
Casten had no vulnerabilities.
- Techie - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:05 am:
I had no idea Bailey would carry the nomination so handily, but can’t say I’m surprised about Irvin’s performance. I never understood how people thought that someone with his record and background could win in today’s very far-right Republican party.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:05 am:
So I guess the Illinois Republican Party decided to put Trump on the 2022 midterm ballot. Bailey, Miller, DeVore, etc. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time, and I guess cognitive dissonance kicks in.
- thoughts matter - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:07 am:
==This liberal pulled an R ballot yesterday and voted for Bailey. I bet I’m not the only one who did that.==
Gridlock - please explain why you did that and are you worried it will backfire on you? My assumption is that you felt Bailey would be the one most likely to lose on the general election. But what if he wins?
I think the general election will be a closer contest than people think. There seems to be a growing segment of voters that feel they’ve been given free rein to let their innermost non diversity thoughts dictate their actions.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:07 am:
===This liberal pulled an R ballot yesterday and voted for Bailey. I bet I’m not the only one who did that.===
There wasn’t a significant statewide race where alleged crossover voting made a change to the outcome.
As much as both sides think tampering (good or bad) made a difference in actual voters, tough to see the statistical movement. We’ll see
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:09 am:
=== JB’s obvious national ambitions ===
Less than 5% of voters know that JB was in NH, fewer than that will remember in November, and fewer than that will care.
But hey, if you wanna spend $10M trying to drive that message go ahead.
Could you run ads accusing the St. Louis Cardinals of wanting to win the World Series while you’re at it?
- PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:13 am:
How’s Brady going to do agaist Alexi? Will Bailey hold him back, or will it be close?
- Saud-Zide - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:15 am:
Chuy backs winners
- OneMan - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:18 am:
In other stuff, when I went into the city yesterday for work it was the closest I have seen so far to things seeming “normal”.
One change that seems to be longer-lasting, fewer people parking in the monthly section than parking in daily pay.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:20 am:
I was surprised how many of the media outlets bought in to the false, unsubstantiated “Sullivan Surge” narrative. Polls showed him consistently in the teens and with undecideds he looked to end up in the mid-teens. He did and lost by 40 points. Yet every time he was mentioned last night that I heard, especially on WGN, they claimed he had been surging in the polls lately. Baloney. Never happened. Lazy reporting.
- vole - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:20 am:
Another stab in the heart of Lincoln in the heart of Lincoln Land.
- Shibboleth - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:22 am:
Van Ikner, the Democratic write-in for the 118th Legislative District, appears to have gotten the 400 votes needed for ballot access.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:22 am:
Any reports yet on the turnout rates for registered Republicans and Democrats? That might be important to consider before thinking about the November probabilities.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:22 am:
===media outlets bought in to the false, unsubstantiated “Sullivan Surge” narrative.===
Lazy work is fed by sugar high silly.
Flacks deserve credit for getting it bought into too
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:23 am:
===registered===
We have open primaries, no one registers with a party affiliation
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:26 am:
In McHenry County, the biggest race was for sheriff. The conservative candidate beat the right wing candidate.
Either the right wing isn’t as strong as I thought or a lot of Dems pulled a GOP ballot to vote for the more moderate.
- Chicagonk - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:28 am:
Dems caught a break that Sorensen beat Wallace in the 17th. That is going to be one of the most competitive districts in the country in November and Sorensen’s name recognition in the Quad Cities will help.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:31 am:
I share T.J.’s wondering if Illinois is on a different timeline than Colorado or Utah for not repudiating MAGA candidates. But Miller, at least, won in a very rural district (Quincy the only small city?), so her case is not easy to compare to a statewide race in Colorado.
It seems too often the Republican culture warriors (who don’t even know what battle they are wandering into) have begun to dominate their party’s air space. Being a minority party seems to harden the official Republican party stance in Illinois around talking points that don’t reflect accurate, thoughtful consideration of issues (like criminal justice reform or covid restrictions) so much as a united front of opposition to the Democrats.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:31 am:
A quote from Irvin’s concession speech is quite interesting.Irvin in his concession speech.
== There is no actual us versus them, there is only America. When we realize that, we will realize we are stronger together than we are apart. ==
That message might have played well for a Republican running in the General. But I cannot Imagine a Bailey and DeVore team using a message on unifying Illinois. So Independent voters will get to choose between a Divide and Conquer Republican platform, or a Stay the Course/Equality for All platform.
I think Democrats are safe, even though Miller will win in a landslide down here.
- AU - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:32 am:
The Willis loss is a hard one to swallow. She is a good person and knew her district well. Kudos to Hernandez and the Chuy operation.
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:35 am:
Truly, when is JB Pritzker going to stop trying to win elections and do things with the power he obtains by winning elections? It’s so unseemly. What a bad guy.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:35 am:
@ OW - Regarding open primaries, I would still think there is some sort of tracking regarding voter participation in primaries. Is that not the case? If so, it would seem easy to do a postmortem at the county level, I would think.
PS - thanks for always sharing your experienced wisdom here. As a political novice, I appreciate it.
- Suburban Operative - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:35 am:
Greg Hart and state rep Deb Conroy will face off for DuPage County Board Chairman in November. That should be a good one to watch, especially with Bailey, Devore and company at the top of the ticket. Could you imagine if the Dems keep their board majority AND win the chairman position? You can call it BluePage.
- So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:37 am:
==when is JB Pritzker going to stop trying to win elections and do things with the power he obtains by winning elections? ==
-$15 min wage
-Legalized recreational marijuana
-$45 billion capital bill
-Criminal justice reform
-6 credit rating upgrades
-4 balanced budgets
Take a lap.
- Highland IL - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:38 am:
Amusing to see Jason Plummer carrying water for Tom DeVore this election cycle. The GOP incumbents only have to worry about primaries now. The Democratic Party down here is almost non-existent.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:38 am:
Raise your hand if you predicted Dan Brady would be the person to eventually bring the ILGOP to relevance
- Kramer Craig - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:40 am:
JB is toast come November, Durkin is toast come this morning,as I called it, Welter went down hard, not even a close race. Profit is the new ILGOP leader ahem I mean Bailey….
- SouthSideGT - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:41 am:
If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it? Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party. If that is true does Bailey try to close the deal with ads targeting them? IIRC Rauner managed to beat Quinn by peeling off enough votes in the black community. Appreciate anyone’s thoughts. Love the comments. And the site, of course.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:42 am:
- H-W -
It’s ALL good, recognizing things is half of it.
What is done is get voter files and sort by how many times, (frequency) and how often (intensity) a voter pulls a ballot from one party.
In an open primary state, it allows to see real shifts over time, a snapshot, or both, but the statewide GOP wins, as an example, likely saw no significant move where “Dems” crossed. Bailey, DeVore, they *are* the GOP, aided or not.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:44 am:
=== JB’s obvious national ambitions may preoccupy him===
If JB has actual national ambitions for a race as early as 2024 or even 2028 he is not making the right early moves to properly prepare for a national campaign. He’s not making wrong moves, but the moves he is making are not even the tip of the iceberg for what needs to be going on unless he has created a dark money PAC that he never talks about. This isn’t a reflection on how Pritzker is doing as Governor and how that helps him have a national profile, but it takes a lot more work to be a successful candidate in a national primary than having name recognition. Let’s pick on Beto O’Rourke, a household name whose presidential ambitions went no where because he hadn’t put the proper effort it. I can give everyone a lot more examples. Someone can’t just parachute into a few early states several months out from their primaries or caucuses and expect to win over a person who has put years long effort in. Doing otherwise is uncommon, and the times you are thinking it happened may simply be missing most of the iceberg of effort that went into it.
===Dems caught a break that Sorensen beat Wallace in the 17th.===
Wallace’s campaign effort was lackadaisical and embarrassing. It was her race to lose and she barely assembled a campaign. She had excellent performance for a candidate that barely raised any money and if her campaign had resources to invest in actually campaigning and had started fund raising and spending in that district, oh, 12 months ago, we would be looking at a different result.
We can talk about Eric Sorensen’s name recognition, and that certainly did help, but when you look at the numbers Eric did the work when the other candidates were waiting for others to campaign for them. Congratulations to Mr. Sorensen.
- Loyal Virus - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:45 am:
Shout out to all the election judges, coordinators, poll workers, campaigners, and people who voted yesterday. Some really really good humans lost races yesterday, and some really really good humans won. Onward to the good humans winning in November.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:45 am:
===Rauner managed to beat Quinn by peeling off enough votes in the black community.===
Oh boy. So much to unpack here.
Organized labor and Quinn under water aided Rauner.
Pritzker is a wealthy incumbent governor who is polling above water, against a candidate that is *very* pro-life and doesn’t “like” She-Caw-Go…
Not even in the same ball park… Quinn and Pritzker.
- Skeptic - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:46 am:
“Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.” Maybe among the conservative Republicans that’s true, but many of the rest of us are right where we were in 2016.
- Reformed Public Servant - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:47 am:
===There wasn’t a significant statewide race where alleged crossover voting made a change to the outcome.===
Oswego Willy is correct, as usual… from someone who helped run Dillard’s GOV primary, it wasn’t significant enough to get it done then (and it was a lot closer there than other races I’m aware of - as PQ was safe and Dems gave “blessing” to cross-over), but would love to run the data on Dem cross-over to Bailey
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:47 am:
scorecard needed. whose endorsement did what? Pritzker, Durbin, Iris Martinez, Chuy, Victor Reyes. Also FOP/only Republican Alderman in Chicago Napolitiano….epic endorsement losing streak.
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:47 am:
==GOP establishment leaders should resign, starting with Jim Durkin.==
They might as well resign because the IL GOP has gone to POT (Party of Trumpkins). No room there for sane and sensible Old School Republicans or even those who dare to reject wacky election fraud theories. I continue to pray for a moderate center to return to Illinois and American politics, but I don’t see many hopeful signs. I am truly afraid that a Populist ultra-right-wing government will eventually gain a narrow victory nationally and then consolidate power, undermine democracy, and we will be living in a Fascist state before reasonable people can stop it from happening.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:48 am:
===If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it?===
I have no interest in helping the Bailey campaign brain storm. If the GOP carries the Governor’s office or any statewide race in Illinois it will be because of a failure of the Democratic Party or of a specific statewide candidate to mount a serious campaign to win office. Incumbency is great but relying on the power of incumbency, name recognition, and the campaign efforts of others is always a coin flip.
Hannibal ad Portas. He might not be able to scale the walls, or bust down the gate, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get in if you leave the gates open.
- CentralILCentrist - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:49 am:
Bigger district school/bond referendums took a hit. Smaller districts fared a bit better. Wonder how property tax reform can factor into the cards being played by school boards and legislators setting up new construction grants for school districts.
- Blake - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:50 am:
I liked having the primary later. I would rather combine primary and general in November, especially since most offices don’t have competitive generals, but it felt better than March having more distance to November.
- Hot Taeks - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:51 am:
Saying JB is toast in the general and Bailey will win is what we call ‘Wishcasting’. Not a single poll has been released since the general election has been set. JB will win by 10+ points. Get outside and touch grass Bailey supporters.
- Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:53 am:
===Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party. If that is true does Bailey try to close the deal with ads targeting them?===
Well for one maybe distance himself from Trump who thinks Latinos are criminals and rapists, and then also don’t mention building a wall, or putting kids in cages, etc.
But yea, other than that, maybe Bailey can get most Latinos to vote for him and give him the edge to beat JB in November.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 8:54 am:
Where can we find the results of the Democratic state committeeperson races?
- Just Sayin - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:01 am:
==Holy cow, did Marie Newman get her fanny kicked by Casten.==
What are the chances of Newman launching a “political comeback” in two years and perhaps running for the GA?
- Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:01 am:
I think Bailey’s win had more to do with Irvin’s horribly run campaign than Trump’s endorsement. But with that block of voters, the endorsement certainly didn’t hurt.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:05 am:
One thing I can’t help wondering this a.m. is would Rodney Davis have won the GOP primary for governor with Griffin’s $50 million?
- TJ - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:05 am:
As I’ve said several times before, seeing Mayor Astroturf and the California hedge capitalist basically do nothing but waste tens of millions of dollars brings a smile to my face.
- low level - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:07 am:
==Where can we find the results of the Democratic state committeeperson races?==
Thank you. I had the same question
- Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:08 am:
After the pitiful showing, would Irvin get re-elected in Aurora? Or is he done?
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:09 am:
-What are the chances of Newman launching a “political comeback” in two years and perhaps running for the GA?-
I don’t think she is going away. However, I also don’t think she is much for self-analysis or introspection. This crushing defeat shows a lot of voters just don’t like her, but I don’t expect her to change.
- TJ - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:11 am:
@hisgirlfriday
I’m inclined to think he would’ve won the nomination. But I also think Brady is hoping for a red surge to help down ballot races versus trying to go up against the billionaire (even hypothetically with Ken’s money).
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:16 am:
One of the biggest takeaways from last night, only for me is…
The times, they are changed.
The times aren’t “a-changing”
They done changed.
It’s not “crossover” voters or “meddling” campaigns… the times done changed… for Dems, their party, for the GOP, “their” party… there’s not evolving, things have changed.
It’s “new days” everywhere; statewideS, the GA caucuses, all four caucuses… Congress… new days.
Evolve or die… or move on from what you knew was true… but like sharks… standing still here, in the today, the now, in Illinois… standing still is the end.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:22 am:
Russ Stewart almost had a total win streak. he predicted Bailey Alexi Fritz Kaegi Jackson Villegas and Casten. One off.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:24 am:
==After the pitiful showing, would Irvin get re-elected in Aurora? Or is he done? ==
Yes.
Yes, he will get re-elected in Aurora, the municipal election is 3 years away. Using your same “logic” Toni Preckwinkle should have been done after losing her race for mayor, or to use a more local example, Lauzen should have been done after he lost his congressional primary.
Speaking as a resident, there isn’t anyone who is going to go ‘gosh darn, he lost a primary so therefore I am not voting for him again for mayor’. Aurora doesn’t punish ambition, even if it fails. Remember Oberweis is from the area.
Who’s gonna run against him?
- low level - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:25 am:
They will be coming for Villegas next year (his Aldermanic seat) after that very weak showing.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:27 am:
Dem State Committeeperson info: “The clout of each member of the state central committee is based on how many voters pulled a Democratic ballot on Tuesday in each district. That will take time to calculate.”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2022/6/28/23187343/election-day-next-showdown-vote-democratic-party-chair-pritzker-donated-kelly-potential-rivals
- Just Sayin - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:28 am:
Sam Cahnman over Rose Ruzic for the Democratic nod in Sangamon County Dist. 18, 172-141. What were they thinking?
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/IL/Sangamon/114216/web.285569/#/detail/1505
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:28 am:
- OneMan - has it right with Irvin and Aurora.
Last week I spent 3 days “in town”, downtown, and I prefer Aurora, often, to Naperville.
The locals? No one is publicly beefing. Projects are still going, who exactly is going to run to beat Irvin?
Bourne, on the other hand… she should go on vacation for two weeks, no “phone”, no “news”, really think what exactly does the next 6 months look like?
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:29 am:
for the State Centrals you can add up the counts from the counties and it’s lots to do. AND votes still coming in.
- WestBurbs - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:33 am:
Is Bailey’s win a sign of (a) MAGA dominance or (b) Pritzker/DGA support for Bailey + Irvin incompetence? I’m hoping its the latter and fear its the former.
- Unionman - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:33 am:
Apparently complete polarization is the name of the game. Right wing republicans and left wing democrats.
Can the shift back to center start already.
- Rotering - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:36 am:
Rotering is done. She has now lost election to congress, AG, and Supreme Court. I think she performed worse than expected this time.
- OneMan - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:37 am:
=== If anyone on CapFax believes Bailey has a shot in the general, how does he do it? ====
I don’t for the most part, but here is how it could happen.
Inflation remains high, yeah that isn’t the governor’s fault, but people blame politicians for that stuff.
They figure out a way to drive down turnout in the city and suburbs (likely using a combination of COVID over-reaction, the economy, general annoyance with politicians)
Drive-up turnout south of I-80 with a combination of (Chicago bad, Illinois is an abortion destination, they don’t care about you and the current crop of ‘they are coming for your kids’ stuff)
Pound him hard on COVID in the state vets facilities (it worked on Rauner with Leagonares, yeah it’s different, elections are not about subtle)
Pound him about national ambitions (he’s gonna spend a year in Iowa and/or New Hampshire that sort of stuff)
Don’t think that it will work, but….
- walker - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:39 am:
Illinois seems to have a center of gravity that slows down its swings in attitude compared to the pendulum of the country overall. We are slower to decline, and slower to recover through major economic cycles.
Nationally there have been big movements among Republicans toward middle-age Trumpian insurrection politics, and Young Progressive revolutionary politics. Today we see signs of these swings arriving at a slower pace in Illinois.
Moves toward the margins will make governing even more difficult than it has already been.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:44 am:
===Marie Newman owns a condo in the West Loop. She should run in IL-07 next cycle. Yesterday showed that Danny Davis is vulnerable.===
Not to her, he isn’t. That’s laughable
- Southside Markie - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:45 am:
Can someone help me out by leading me to a link where I can see the results of the State Central Committee races? Thanks.
- Oldtimer - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:46 am:
I think I almost got as many votes as Sam Cahnman did yesterday when I ran for precinct committeeman (unopposed) twenty years ago. His opposition research needs its own filing cabinet.
- Homebody - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:47 am:
@Westburbs - ==Is Bailey’s win a sign of (a) MAGA dominance==
Yes. This is what the Republican party is now, and has been moving toward for decades. In 2016 they just got ‘permission’ to take the mask off.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:47 am:
Rotering: Lake County for Lar Daley.
- Wading in... - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:50 am:
===Bourne, on the other hand… she should go on vacation for two weeks, no “phone”, no “news”, really think what exactly does the next 6 months look like?===
Agree. Outside of politics, I wish good things for Avery Bourne. Politically, she and the other Raunerites need to go. They are clearly culpable in the miserable condition the IL Republican Party finds itself.
- Vote Quimby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:50 am:
== I’m hoping its the latter and fear its the former.==
Same here, but I don’t think there is enough MAGA to overcome Bailey’s hatred of NE Illinois.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:52 am:
-Yesterday showed that Danny Davis is vulnerable.-
It did, but I doubt he gets the message. Time for party officials to have a sit down with him and encourage him to retire gracefully after this next term.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:54 am:
Thanks, Anon221 and Amalia - on the reasons to be patient about awaiting Democratic statecommitteeperson election results.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:55 am:
===The times, they are changed.===
I find little zeal in supporting a candidate that doesn’t have a good answer for why they weren’t among those that finally stood up to Speaker Madigan when the writing was on the wall. I find even less zeal in supporting a candidate that wants to try to parse their way to winning votes in their district by toying with the rights of my sisters. Parents do not own their children.
Just because the GOP has become a party of no exceptions does not mean the Democratic Party needs to build a coalition with positions that were squarely anti-choice just 4 or 6 years ago. It’s great to have a coalition party. It’s great to build an intersectional policy agenda. The Democratic Party needs to be something other than “not Republican” and something other than “not fascist” and perhaps that is why so many supporters are frustrated when Democratic Majorities and Democratic executive branches compromise within themselves and fail to deliver policy positions that are more popular than sunshine on a cloudy day.
- Carbondale Chronicle - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:56 am:
I don’t believe this has been mentioned. Although the order of the Republican gubernatorial primary was correct in the latest polls, the margins and percentages were way off. I hope, at some point, that there is a discussion on the polling of elections in Illinois. It certainly seems like the undercount of Bailey supporters was extremely significant. Will that carry over to the general? This would certainly make a good discussion.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 9:59 am:
===there is a discussion on the polling of elections in Illinois. It certainly seems like the undercount of Bailey supporters was extremely significant.===
(Sigh)
Polls are a snapshot.
The surging voters were Bailey voters, undecideds broke for Bailey.
There’s no conspiracy that polling was off, voters like to pick and be with winners. Six polls showed Bailey leading, the surge existed with Bailey.
- DuPage Carl - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:00 am:
Karen caucus is officially on check
- WestBurbs - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:00 am:
I’m in Danny Davis’s district and have disliked him for years for many reasons including his do-nothing attitude and his Farrakhan-adjacent positions/speeches.
Yet I voted for him and campaigned for him.
I believe Kina Collins embodies all that is wrong with the Dem Party. The “squad” and their ilk (including many but not all who label themselves progressives) are incredibly bad for the party and the country. Perhaps a bit overstated, but I blame them for driving at least some rational people into the arms of MAGA-crazy.
I base much of my views on the daily emails I get from Justice Democrats.
- McGuppin - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:03 am:
Congrats to Alexi Giannoulias, who ran a focused, disciplined and winning campaign. Seemed to me he worked his butt off and took nothing for granted. His opponent……yikes. She needs to do some deep reflection. No one is entitled to elected office. Browbeating endorsements out of high profile elected officials is no substitute for hard work and honest, sincere messaging.. She should really think about that heading into the municipal elections in February.
- WestBurbs - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:07 am:
Carbondale Chronicle - are you suggesting some type of election fraud because the results didn’t match the polls? If not, sorry for reading it that way. But, if so, you really ought to think before you spout that stuff. We are in enough trouble in this country due to unsubstantiated allegations of vote fraud that we don’t need more. And the idea that polls not matching results is evidence of fraud is naive to the point of insane
- former cubs fan - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:12 am:
What McGuppin said x 100. Alexi ran a great race, and will win in november. im hopeful somebody goes after valencia in her next city election. she is vulnerable.
- Carbondale Chronicle - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:15 am:
With my comment, I am not suggesting a conspiracy theory. I am only suggesting that as we continue to see polling results not as accurate as we have seen in the past, it may be a good time to have a discussion. My only suggestion is to have a discussion regarding if we are going to continue to see polling data may not be as accurate as in the past and what steps can be taken to have more accurate results.
- low level - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:15 am:
==She should really think about that heading into the municipal elections in February.==.
Yes. Like Villegas, Valencia will likely be challenged after that very weak result. Can she recover? We will see…
- Jockey - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:16 am:
How’d the Speaker do last night?
Z, Willis, and Huynh winning Harris seat.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:17 am:
===polling results not as accurate===
What was inaccurate?
Bailey won big.
Undecideds broke his way to increase that polling.
What *exactly* is your premise?
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:18 am:
@ WestBurbs == Is Bailey’s win a sign of (a) MAGA dominance or (b) Pritzker/DGA support for Bailey + Irvin incompetence? ==
Warning: Controversial Thoughts Follow
In my estimate (which is naive), Bailey was destined to win from the beginning. He was out in front before the primaries even began in earnest, with his anti-mask song and dance. So was DeVore. Even without Trump, Bailey was making a name for himself as an anti-governmental authority, authoritarian member of that same government. That message plays well among a large share of modern Republican voters.
In addition, West Central, Eastern Bloc, and Southern Republicans in Illinois represent unyielding political blocs, and rule the GOP in this state today. Even when a poll or two suggested Irvin might be leading, they were always within the margin of error, and indicated a huge “undecided” vote count. That should have been telling.
As a sociologist who studies race in America, I was never convinced an African American, suburban mayor from upstate could garner enough votes downstate to be competitive in the Republican Primary. The large number of undecided voters reinforced my hunch. There is an ongoing and historical angst regarding race relations in much of this region I call home. So for me, it is not unreasonable to question if race played a subliminal roll as well in Irvin never developing a significant, commanding lead. Rather, I think the other candidates just needed to be sorted.
Historically, (e.g., Harvey Gantt of NC and Douglas Wilder of VA) African American candidates have often ended up with fewer statewide votes than predicted in early polling). In those races, a significant number of white democratic voters said they would vote for the African American candidate, but ultimately did not do so.
Not that Irvin didn’t escort himself out the door. But that theoretical door was already open, as I see it.
- SouthSideGT - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:27 am:
@ OW ==So much to unpack here==
Appreciate the thoughts but I guess my question still stands. I assume Bailey believes he can win so what can he do to get enough votes to do that?
- Been There - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:27 am:
It appears chicken coops will be allowed in the village of Loami
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:31 am:
Candidates should think they can win. Otherwise what’s the point.
Thinking it and a path to it sometimes are not congruent
===so what can he do to get enough votes to do that===
Bailey lost me. As did Rauner. As did Trump.
Pritzker’s “education” blitz in ads will make it difficult, women, suburban women, persons of color… where does Bailey build off of his religious… and MAGA base?
- SouthSideGT - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:31 am:
@ OneMan ==Don’t think that it will work, but==
Thanks for the reply. Appreciate it. I guess we will see how the Bailey campaign moves forward.
- Socially DIstant Watcher - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:35 am:
==Appreciate the thoughts but I guess my question still stands. I assume Bailey believes he can win so what can he do to get enough votes to do that? ==
If you’ve got A few ten million, I know some people who can sell you an answer.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:40 am:
===They will be coming for Villegas next year (his Aldermanic seat) after that very weak showing.===
They already did. The new Ward map pretty much dissolved his territory. It was up or out for Gil yesterday. He’s a man without a district.
- SouthSideGT - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:46 am:
@ OW ==where does Bailey build off of his religious… and MAGA base?==
That is what I am trying to determine and I don’t believe it is possible either but if I were running the Bailey campaign I would try and peel off Hispanic voters who are family oriented and church going.
As they say, my two cents.
- Nuke The Whales - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:47 am:
==Conventional wisdom indicates that Latino voters are leaving the Democratic Party==
Nothing validates John Kenneth Gailbraith’s view of conventional wisdom than this Dems in Disarray argument.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:47 am:
===Hispanic voters===
How does Bailey feel about immigration?
I’m guessing Pritzker will educate on that too.
- MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:47 am:
Lots of smart thoughts and good questions on this thread.
That’s all.
– MrJM
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:49 am:
@WestBurbs - I used to live in the Danny Davis district and voted against him every chance I got if for no other reason than due to his prominent role in that looney tunes Moonie coronation ceremony in the Capitol.
I am not on the Justice Dems email list but it is hard for me to imagine that what is in there is somehow crazier than the beliefs of the Moonies, $cientologists NOI folks who Danny Davis associates himself with.
@RonBurgundy - The time for party officials to nudge Danny Davis into retirement was before this election. Hopefully the Dem leadership gerontocracy that propped him for another cycle gets swept away along with him next time.
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:49 am:
I watched WGN’s coverage last night. A few times there were allusions made that the Eastern bloc has a grievance for their treatment in the state.
But no one would describe the specific grievance.
So what is it? An Effingham resident can enjoy a blunt like anyone living in Chicago. A Neogan can get $15 per hour for his labor just like an Auroran. With a little paper work the can own a gun and get a CCL just like someone living in Westchester.
So where is the grievance? Is it just cultural? Is it that economically their region is not as successful (that has a lot more to do with US policy than state, the state does what it can by keeping the prisons in diverse regions.)
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:51 am:
===As they say, my two cents.===
That’s what’s great about *this place*
You added a great deal.
- Stalling - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:04 am:
Griffen should have run Bourne for Governor and Irvin as HER running mate.
- Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:07 am:
Griffin could have run Demmer and Bourne and that would have been as good a combo as anything.
- Henry - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:14 am:
The only impact organized labor will have in November is cash for Democrats and JB doesn’t need it. The trades let the Democrats pass their infrastructure projects and protect there rights to collectively bargain for wages and benefits but they vote republican.
- don the legend - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:15 am:
==Griffen should have run Bourne for Governor and Irvin as HER running mate.
Griffin could have run Demmer and Bourne and that would have been as good a combo as anything.==
Either way, JB and the DGA would have boosted Bailey’s campaign and the result would have been the same.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:22 am:
===His “consultants” convinced him===
Pretty sure it was the other way around.
- Nearly Normal - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:30 am:
WGLT had an interesting segment on the fact there are GOP voters in McLean County that still believe the election fraud claims. It’s not just a faction, it is in the leadership of the county GOP party and most of its members. Logic and facts do not faze their belief in the lies and in Trump.
Here’s a link to station’s report–
https://tinyurl.com/y8jbh34j
- BilboSwaggins - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:34 am:
-The GOP kinda proved how unhappy a lot of downstate is with the way Illinois is going.
The moderates were whipped up on by the “fringe”
Me thinks the fringe is no longer fringe, but moving toward the mainstream.-
Anyone with a pulse could have told you in 2016 that this was the case now, and it has only gotten stronger. The GOP, be it in Illinois or any other state, is now the party of Trump, MAGA, and lunatic conspiracy theories.
- Other 47th ward guy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:08 pm:
In the House 13th, I don’t think the story in the Hoan Huynh - Eileen Dordek race is quite one of shoe leather vs. endorsements, Dordek campaigned relentlessly at the doors, with a good number of volunteers. She did the same when she ran for 47th ward alder against Matt Martin. I am not in Huynh’s world, but his bio suggests the story might be that his career has been spent making more contacts with grassroots leaders, whereas Eileen has focused on the grasstops with Personal PAC and the super-grassroots with door knocking - she hasn’t done as much at that middle level with leaders who have credibility with lots of voters.
- Yooper in Diaspora - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:18 pm:
Can anyone with a long political memory tell me a time when the Illinois Republican party didn’t put out talking points that lack accuracy and a sense for nuance (e.g., on recent criminal justice reform and on the governor’s covid responses)? It seems that as a minority party, the Republicans have opted to be a united front behind oppositional and sometimes unsettlingly inaccurate talking points, instead of being thoughtful contributors to conversation about the common good in the state (speaking as individual legislators, not just as a bloc). I see these Republican talking points in emails from my state rep and senator.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:19 pm:
@Other 47th Ward Guy, interesting and good analysis.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:22 pm:
are we ready for Chuy for Mayor now?
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:28 pm:
==Griffen should have run Bourne for Governor and Irvin as HER running mate.==
I agree with that 100 percent. She would have done better. That being said, I still don’t know if it would have been good enough to beat Bailey in the current political climate. I still think Pritzker will have an easier time against Bailey than any of the other GOP candidates, yet I worry that something will happen to change the odds. I’ll continue to pray for the defeat of Darren and all the other Trumpublicans and cast my single vote against the ones I can in November. I know Mary is almost guaranteed a win, barring divine intervention, but at least I will no longer have to be embarrassed by having her as my Representative.
Just as an interesting observation, I just noticed a ginormous American flag flying from a crane boom at the home of Darren’s parents on Route 45 in Louisville. I wish I had one like that, only I would be flying mine upsidedown right now.
- cermak_rd - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:32 pm:
Amalia re Chuy for mayor
I hope not. He’s my congress critter and I like him.
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:49 pm:
@ H-W
That is an excellent analysis.
A lot of white conservatives love black candidates as long as they can affirm their beliefs (Tim Scott, David Clarke, Clarence Thomas, etc.). When Irvin said “All lives matter,” a lot of white people thought “Yes - a black man who gets it.” When the footage was shown of him saying the opposite, the MAGAs turned on him bigly.
- Soapbox Derby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:43 pm:
@ Proud Papa
Conservatives usually vote for candidates that vote in more than one GOP primary per decade. Irvin’s color didn’t matter, folks rightly saw him as just an opportunist backed by a billionaire.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:46 pm:
- Soapbox Derby -
Did you vote for Rauner?
Rauner voted in the 2006 Dem primary while living in Chicago. Rauner donated to Dems too.
It was in all the papers.
- Clever Girl - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:56 pm:
Hi, does Tom Devore really have Freedom and Equality tatooed on his arms? Asking for a friend.
- thisjustinagain - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:57 pm:
1) I’m left wondering if some candidates ever a) realized they were running for office (Irwin), or b) had absolutely no chance of being elected (various Cook County challengers, and JB’s Dem challenger).
Some campaigns fizzled, some never had a chance from the start. Seems their advisors failed both a and b candidates.
2) Anybody notice that Alexi got less votes to win than Brady (420,650 to 540,745)? Based on that result, Brady would have won the general election by some 80,000 votes.
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:58 pm:
@ CleverGirl - Freedom, and Liberty
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 2:05 pm:
-2) Anybody notice that Alexi got less votes to win than Brady (420,650 to 540,745)? Based on that result, Brady would have won the general election by some 80,000 votes.-
Anybody notice that Alexi had 3 opponents taking up votes and Brady had 1?
- Soapbox Derby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 2:13 pm:
@ Oswego:
Rauner voted in one Dem primary, Irvin voted in one GOP primary. No need to read this in the papers to see the difference.
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 2:13 pm:
“Anybody notice”
Or that the Republican side had a hotly contested gubernatorial race.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 2:14 pm:
===one Dem primary===
That’s acceptable?
Sure, Jan.
(Hashtag) Floating Criteria
- Just Sayin - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:10 pm:
==Rauner voted in the 2006 Dem primary while living in Chicago.==
Did he vote for Blago or Eisendrath? Probably most likely the convicted former.
- Soapbox Derby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:19 pm:
@ Oswego
Yep, one Dem primary ballot is acceptable. Many folks have crossed over when there is an interesting race on the other side, or not much happening in the GOP primary. I did it in 2018 and lightning didn’t strike me.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:24 pm:
===Yep, one Dem primary ballot is acceptable. ===
LOL
Why not… two…
“Ok, two… but they can’t have given money to a Dem in 12 months… ok, 9 months…”
This is an utter phony take your have here.
===Many folks have crossed over when there is an interesting race on the other side===
Like Darren Bailey?
I mean, how easy are you making this for me?
At this point the favorite aunt rescues the in-law uncle from the nieces and nephews from mucking and he catches on, lol
===I did it in 2018 and lightning didn’t strike me.===
Who did you vote for in 2018?
- Soapbox Derby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:30 pm:
@ Oswego
Crossed over to vote for a Dem Congressional candidate.
Who was the last Republican governor candidate you voted for?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:32 pm:
Lots of GOPers, never pulled a Dem primary ballot either.
Now, in the General, this General…
- H-W - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:46 pm:
I am a Democrat, and I crossed over once to vote for a Republican I do not even like. I made an open promise that if she would vote to override Rauner’s last budget veto, I would support her in the primary. She did, and I kept my word. I did so for symbolic value - I gave my word, publicly. People crossover for all sorts of reasons, some of which is not even remotely interloping or misplaced loyalties.
- Soapbox Derby - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:52 pm:
@ Oswego
Are you going to answer my simple question?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:54 pm:
Primary? General?
Heck, I’m “better” than you, I’ve never voted in a Dem primary… ever.
According to your ridiculousness, I’m more of a Republican than you, and you’re questioning me?
- MoralMinority - Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 4:06 pm:
I’ve never voted in a primary election in the almost 40 years that I have been eligible to vote except for a nonpartisan ballot when there was a referendum question. I had to argue with the election judges for several minutes that they had to give me a nonpartisan ballot until finally one of them conceded the point. I’ve been tempted to vote in primaries against candidates that I found particularly repugnant, but never brought myself to do it.