It won’t be his only commercial on the subject, so won’t nit pick the lack of racial (other than LG Stratton) or age diversity; these are people who’ve been working on it for a long time.
NYT national poll out today: “Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.”
===NYT national poll out today: “Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.”===
You have a link?
What was the top, and whatever is on top, are there weekly protests for/against it?
“this will resonate well with pro-choice Dems who were likely in his camp anyway.”
And with suburban Republican and independent women who came out in droves for him in 2018 and who came out in droves for Biden in 2020. The “is this your most important issue” really misses the mark. It’s not the most important issue for most people but it is a defining issue that will galvanize marginal voters. That’s kind of what Willy was also getting at.
“Jobs and the economy were the most important problem facing the country according to 20 percent of voters, with inflation and the cost of living (15 percent) close behind as prices are rising at the fastest rate in a generation. One in 10 voters named the state of American democracy and political division as the most pressing issue, about the same share who named gun policies, after several high-profile mass shootings.
“More than 75 percent of voters in the poll said the economy was “extremely important” to them. And yet only 1 percent rated economic conditions as excellent. Among those who are typically working age — voters 18 to 64 years old — only 6 percent said the economy was good or excellent, while 93 percent rated it poor or only fair.”
=== are there weekly protests for/against it?===
The % of people coming out for protests if a bare fraction of voters. It has some utility as a barometer, but I’m cautious about over-weighting it.
And, every time someone goes to the grocery, buys gas, decides they can’t afford a home, or gets a medical bill they can’t afford, a very micro, private protest occurs - the cumulative toll of which may be more impactful than the throngs in the streets.
Not saying abortion won’t be motivating to voters. But, it’s not their top issue and on the issue they care most about, the party in power (my party) is fumbling and stumbling.
OW and New Day are right; forcing people to rank issues sequentially doesn’t necessarily give an accurate picture, especially when there are so many important issues to choose from.
Also, for many non-wealthy women, “economics” vs. “reproductive rights” is an especially false choice, given the expense and physical stress of being forced to carry a pregnancy to term, let alone of raising a child. For many, this is at least partially an economic issue.
Not saying the economy isn’t top of mind for most, but economics can’t be separated from issues of fairness, justice, and equal access to opportunity.
=== The survey of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted from July 5 to 7, accounting for the ruling.===
And… just above it…
===Despite the angry progressive reaction to the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, abortion only looms largest for 5 percent of voters, specifically one percent of men and 9 percent of women, the poll shows, mollifying some Republican fears that the decision could ruin the GOP’s expected midterm spoils.===
Thanks for that link, the baseline bottom of abortion is very low in the poll, which is exactly why I asked all I did.
My whole point *is* the ad.
The more Bailey can’t discuss abortion. The more Pritzker had his bona fides seen and framing Bailey as dangerous to women’s health, what exactly can Bailey say, since Bailey really can’t ssy much at all, given the negative ad Orotzket already has run.
There’s a building going on here.
When Bailey decides to run ads like Sullivan did on the primary embracing a pro-life agenda… in Illinois.
Why won’t Bailey do that if the worry is so low… “today”?
=Good. All JB needs to do is keep who he’s got. Bailey’s the one who actually has to change some minds.=
Yep, this all day.
The economy is very different than the economy of 2019 in some fundamental ways. Unemployment remains low at a level the DOL considers full employment.
Inflation is high relative to an historic period of little to no inflation which also accompanied an historic period of wage stagnation (40 years). Inflation helps to grow wages. The issues with the supply chain will actually help US manufacturing as companies are reshoring manufacturing. Construction of manufacturing has risen 116%. Over 750,000 mfr job vacancies currently. Still, it will take some time.
Fundamentally, this is better for working class America than a stock market driven “strong economy” which benefits a much smaller segment of our nation and is fickle at best. The wealthy get an outsized benefit.
That said, people have short memories and that is tough to deal with in an ad.
I give the ad a B+. Makes the point, tells the story.
The difference maker for JB is his teams ability to tell a positive story. People get sick of the negative and that is the only tune the apostle bailey’s tuba can play. And anyone can tear things down, building up is a whole different challenge.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:35 pm:
Solid “B”
Blocking and tackling, fundamentals, the issue of reproductive rights, and the decades long history Pritzker has in it.
I’m of the belief that reproductive rights will be a big deal come November
- Moe Berg - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:41 pm:
It’s fine for what it is. 4 out of 5.
It won’t be his only commercial on the subject, so won’t nit pick the lack of racial (other than LG Stratton) or age diversity; these are people who’ve been working on it for a long time.
NYT national poll out today: “Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.”
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:47 pm:
===NYT national poll out today: “Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.”===
You have a link?
What was the top, and whatever is on top, are there weekly protests for/against it?
- Illinois Centered - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:58 pm:
Lots of white women for an issue that hits minority communities hard.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:29 pm:
Give it a B-, excellent production, but who is the audience ? this will resonate well with pro-choice Dems who were likely in his camp anyway.
- New Day - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:42 pm:
“this will resonate well with pro-choice Dems who were likely in his camp anyway.”
And with suburban Republican and independent women who came out in droves for him in 2018 and who came out in droves for Biden in 2020. The “is this your most important issue” really misses the mark. It’s not the most important issue for most people but it is a defining issue that will galvanize marginal voters. That’s kind of what Willy was also getting at.
- Moe Berg - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:43 pm:
===You have a link?===
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html
“Jobs and the economy were the most important problem facing the country according to 20 percent of voters, with inflation and the cost of living (15 percent) close behind as prices are rising at the fastest rate in a generation. One in 10 voters named the state of American democracy and political division as the most pressing issue, about the same share who named gun policies, after several high-profile mass shootings.
“More than 75 percent of voters in the poll said the economy was “extremely important” to them. And yet only 1 percent rated economic conditions as excellent. Among those who are typically working age — voters 18 to 64 years old — only 6 percent said the economy was good or excellent, while 93 percent rated it poor or only fair.”
=== are there weekly protests for/against it?===
The % of people coming out for protests if a bare fraction of voters. It has some utility as a barometer, but I’m cautious about over-weighting it.
And, every time someone goes to the grocery, buys gas, decides they can’t afford a home, or gets a medical bill they can’t afford, a very micro, private protest occurs - the cumulative toll of which may be more impactful than the throngs in the streets.
Not saying abortion won’t be motivating to voters. But, it’s not their top issue and on the issue they care most about, the party in power (my party) is fumbling and stumbling.
- Crispy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:04 pm:
OW and New Day are right; forcing people to rank issues sequentially doesn’t necessarily give an accurate picture, especially when there are so many important issues to choose from.
Also, for many non-wealthy women, “economics” vs. “reproductive rights” is an especially false choice, given the expense and physical stress of being forced to carry a pregnancy to term, let alone of raising a child. For many, this is at least partially an economic issue.
Not saying the economy isn’t top of mind for most, but economics can’t be separated from issues of fairness, justice, and equal access to opportunity.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:05 pm:
=== The survey of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted from July 5 to 7, accounting for the ruling.===
And… just above it…
===Despite the angry progressive reaction to the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, abortion only looms largest for 5 percent of voters, specifically one percent of men and 9 percent of women, the poll shows, mollifying some Republican fears that the decision could ruin the GOP’s expected midterm spoils.===
Thanks for that link, the baseline bottom of abortion is very low in the poll, which is exactly why I asked all I did.
My whole point *is* the ad.
The more Bailey can’t discuss abortion. The more Pritzker had his bona fides seen and framing Bailey as dangerous to women’s health, what exactly can Bailey say, since Bailey really can’t ssy much at all, given the negative ad Orotzket already has run.
There’s a building going on here.
When Bailey decides to run ads like Sullivan did on the primary embracing a pro-life agenda… in Illinois.
Why won’t Bailey do that if the worry is so low… “today”?
- Arsenal - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:17 pm:
==this will resonate well with pro-choice Dems who were likely in his camp anyway. ==
Good. All JB needs to do is keep who he’s got. Bailey’s the one who actually has to change some minds.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:48 pm:
=Good. All JB needs to do is keep who he’s got. Bailey’s the one who actually has to change some minds.=
Yep, this all day.
The economy is very different than the economy of 2019 in some fundamental ways. Unemployment remains low at a level the DOL considers full employment.
Inflation is high relative to an historic period of little to no inflation which also accompanied an historic period of wage stagnation (40 years). Inflation helps to grow wages. The issues with the supply chain will actually help US manufacturing as companies are reshoring manufacturing. Construction of manufacturing has risen 116%. Over 750,000 mfr job vacancies currently. Still, it will take some time.
Fundamentally, this is better for working class America than a stock market driven “strong economy” which benefits a much smaller segment of our nation and is fickle at best. The wealthy get an outsized benefit.
That said, people have short memories and that is tough to deal with in an ad.
I give the ad a B+. Makes the point, tells the story.
The difference maker for JB is his teams ability to tell a positive story. People get sick of the negative and that is the only tune the apostle bailey’s tuba can play. And anyone can tear things down, building up is a whole different challenge.