Ogden and Fry conducted a poll in the days leading up to former President Donald Trump’s visit to the Quincy area for a U.S. Rep. Mary Miller endorsement in late June.
The poll of Republicans in the Downstate 15th Congressional District taken June 22-24 (Trump’s visit was the 25th) found Miller leading fellow U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis by 8 points, 46-38. When undecideds were pushed to decide, Miller’s lead jumped to 10 points, 55-45. She won by 15 points, 57.6-42.4.
But if you look at the results from each day, you can see a definite trend. On June 22, Miller’s lead was less than 3 points, which is about where many of the pundits speculated the race stood at the time.
On June 23, as word spread more widely about Trump’s impending visit, Miller’s lead expanded to 9 points, 48-39. And by June 24, the day before Trump’s speech, Miller led by 12 points, 48-36.
Now, these are really small subsets in a single poll. But Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey’s results in CD15 in the same poll also showed a slight upward trendline, from 52 on June 22, to 53 the next day, to 55 on June 24.
“Based on where our final polling was on several races, it seems possible that that momentum continued through Election Day,” explained Ogden and Fry owner Matthew Podgorski, who is also a Republican Party official and candidate.
“Candidates that would benefit from a Trump bump all did better than expected just days earlier,” he continued. “If highly motivated ‘Trump/Bailey’ voters showed up on Election Day while others gave up, several other races may have been affected.”
Podgorski’s statewide polling, for instance, had Tom DeVore ahead of Steve Kim in the GOP attorney general’s race by 4 points. DeVore won by almost 10. Podgorski had Kathy Salvi beating Peggy Hubbard, the most visible Trumpist in the U.S. Senate primary race, by “a much larger margin than the [5-point] victory,” Salvi wound up with, Podgorski told me.
Hey, maybe Podgorski’s polls just weren’t accurate and he’s making excuses here. It’s been tried before by others. But I have thought since well before primary day that the Trump visit would likely reverberate throughout the state, up and down the Republican primary ballot.
The 2nd Illinois Supreme Court District might also be a case in point. The regulars and people like far-right Republican activist Jeanne Ives all backed Lake County Circuit Judge Daniel Shanes in the primary.
Instead, Mark Curran, who is known for his outrageous public remarks (“We are taking on the Establishment, the Party Hacks, the Freemasons and those that could care less that Individual Liberty and Conscience Protection are no longer cherished or protected,” he told supporters last year) won the race by 2 points with almost no money.
Oops.
Also, unlike with Bailey and, to a lesser extent, DeVore, the Democrats had nothing whatsoever to do with this Supreme Court debacle. The Democratic Governors Association, the Democratic Party of Illinois and Gov. J.B. Pritzker himself all paid for advertising that boosted Bailey’s Trump bonafides. The state party paid for mailers doing the same for DeVore.
Bailey, by the way, has repaid the favor by bungling pretty much every statement he’s made since the day after winning the Republican nomination.
Last week, Bailey memorably urged people to “move on and celebrate” shortly after the Highland Park massacre, even though the shooter was still on the loose at the time.
Later in the week, he held a press conference to apologize and try to clean up his own mess but hit the flub trifecta in the space of just 10 minutes. Bailey “conflated state gun control laws, misidentified a neighborhood in Chicago where violence occurred over the weekend and even misquoted a Bible verse,” the Chicago Tribune reported.
And DeVore, the Republican Party’s attorney general nominee, had this to say on Facebook just the other day: “Guess how many of those Republican establishment ‘leaders’, who sat idly by and watched your kids suffer for two years, called me after winning the primary? Zero!! I just might investigate them first before Pritzker!!”
- Amalia - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:06 am:
Podgorski running for office. ugh.
- Lurker - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:21 am:
Maybe Currans opponent should dump money into his campaign. The more he is visible, I think it benefits his opponent. I understand he is a nice guy but some of his comments are *banned words inserted here*
- PublicServant - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:32 am:
I’d like to be the first one to congratulate Governor Pritzker, and Attorney General Raoul on their victories this coming November. Their wacko opponents don’t stand a chance.
- Just Sayin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:40 am:
==I’d like to be the first one to congratulate Governor Pritzker, and Attorney General Raoul on their victories this coming November. ==
As well as Alexi becoming “Comeback Kid 2022″ in November.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:40 am:
DJT is tremendously influential, more than anybody’s ever seen. Bailey won by 42 points. The polls had him up by about half that. No one has ever seen that kind of bump before, believe me.
- Anyone Remember - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:43 am:
” … the Freemasons … .”
Widely acknowledged the first third party (1828, New York State) was … the Anti-Masonic Party. History repeating itself?
- Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:54 am:
I’m running into plenty of neighbors who complimented me on my Salvi, Shane’s, Irvin and Brady signs in my yard during the primary. As a former precinct committeeman They were mostly independents and Democrats with only a few Republicans mixed in. To use a pun, signs of a time? In the past my signs were subject to smarminess, snarks or good natured kidding. Interesting responses compared to the past. Lots of frustrated voters out there this year.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 9:58 am:
Yeah and the really followed through on Irvin.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:09 am:
===As well as Alexi becoming===
Slow down, Speed Racer
Brady and Demmer, staying away from the Cult Slate might make a run… need some real serious cash and infrastructure… but not done for Alexi
- Seph O'logy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:38 am:
“Brady and Demmer, staying away from the Cult Slate might make a run… need some real serious cash and infrastructure… but not done for Alexi”
~saith OW, whom I can barely understand sometimes.
Brady was not on the Griffin slate. Demmer and Teresi were uncontested (and thus not so clearly aligned with any so-called slate.) Who among them, then, is comparatively stronger for their fall race? Might Griffin still help Demmer and Teresi? The money would be better spent than it was on the Primary longshot Irvin.
- Levois J - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:45 am:
Well I wonder how the Trump bump would translate in November? We have a long way between now and then. It sure helped these candidates in the primary.
- Cool Papa Bell - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:45 am:
Can the bump work both ways - Trump gets a number of people energized to go vote for a particular others are turned off from voting at all?
So the sphere of influence is get 35 people to vote for the candidate backed by Trump and 35 people don’t vote because they are turned off by the new Republican party - net gain 70 votes?
- Roman - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:47 am:
== As well as Alexi becoming “Comeback Kid 2022″ in November. ==
Yes, his election is very likely, but congratulations are a bit premature given his baggage and the fact that Brady can credibly present himself as the kind of “normal” GOP candidate that used to win statewide races. If we had a normally functioning Republican Party, they’d recognize they’re not going to win Guv, AG, or either chamber of the GA and they’d throw lots of resource Brady’s way (or Demmer’s) in an effort to establish some sort of beachhead.
- Arsenal - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:48 am:
==I’m running into plenty of neighbors who complimented me on my Salvi, Shane’s, Irvin and Brady signs in my yard during the primary.==
And as Richard Irvin can tell us, the plural of “anecdote” is not “Data”.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:50 am:
I will never understand the appeal of trump, especially to conservative christians. Given the litany of evidence, going back to the early 80’s, on his character and performance it is simply mind boggling. And to get a bump from his appearance or support post Jan 6 is even more difficult to comprehend.
Is it simply a willingness/desire to “own the libs” even at the risk of finally bringing down the most stable (flaws and all) governmental system (which is why so much foreign investment comes here) in the world? The proverbial “cutting your nose off to spite your face?”
Trump’s dishonesty, self serving narcissist is seemingly obvious. So maybe it is just an appeal to our more base inclinations and the belief that somehow the bad things that happen are going to happen to others and not me?
It is just mind blowing that this person can have this impact on so many people. Even Reagan, one of the most popular and successful presidents in American history didn’t have people flying flags with his name or image.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 10:54 am:
===they’d recognize they’re not going to win Guv, AG, or either chamber of the GA and they’d throw lots of resource Brady’s way (or Demmer’s) in an effort to establish some sort of beachhead.===
This is a correct observation to a path.
- Bad Goya Vitch - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:02 am:
Perhaps the GOP will invest in Comptroller, too.
Mendoza can always run for Chicago mayor.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:18 am:
=== and thus not so clearly aligned with any so-called slate.===
And yet, they *were* on a slate.
Plus, none of those three are part of the Cult Slate which is *probably* why I mentioned that, specifically.
- Bruce( no not him) - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:22 am:
=== but hit the flub trifecta in the space of just 10 minutes.===
“But, that’s what we like about him. He makes mistakes, he’s not just reading a teleprompter” And if trump likes him… /S
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:26 am:
“I will never understand the appeal of trump, especially to conservative christians.”
He has fully immersed himself in their grievances. He says he is taking the slings and arrows on their behalf, that opponents attack them through him.
Many of the ex-prez’ supporters know he’s flawed, but that’s what they like about him, that he’s raw and rough “like them,” unlike the slick and manufactured establishment “in name only” GOP, the best example being Irvin.
- Arsenal - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:27 am:
==Perhaps the GOP will invest in Comptroller, too.==
Maybe, but Theresi hasn’t exactly demonstrated that she’s worth investing in yet.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:50 am:
“I will never understand the appeal of trump, especially to conservative christians.”
It’s pretty simple, really. They made a Faustian bargain to support him in exchange for judges, specifically Supreme Court Justices. And their calculus worked.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:31 pm:
=They made a Faustian bargain to support him=
Maybe Machiavellian?
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:36 pm:
Irvin’s fall from the top seems to have started with the all-out assault he received from opponents’ TV ads. The poll numbers started to shift right around the the time of the heavy pounding from multiple sources. It was a masterful campaign performance by Proft, DGA, Pritzker, and Bailey campaign, with the “farmer’s hands/bully” ads.
- Primate - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:08 pm:
Lame Duck Davis got trounced because of the Trump endorsement. Nonetheless , she was already on her way to beat him comfortably. This is mainly because LDD used the same tactic as Irvin in saying that Miller (insert Bailey for the Irvin attempt) was not a true conservative. He also was told the word ‘Carpetbagger’ is magical and would be a game changer. LDD took the bait since his friends/advisors/staff were providing this guidance. His close relationship to the Zancy Team was on full display. This is yet another example of the Rauner curse. Republicans should never associate with these narcissistic fools. As an aside, I feel much better knowing other commenters can barely understand some of OW’s ramblings. Hat tip to Steph…
- Cool Papa Bell - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:12 pm:
=especially to conservative christians=
The widespread support of him kinds pulls the cover off just how “Christian” they are.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:51 pm:
Everyone’s a critic, but thanks for reading.
To the post,
===Bailey, by the way, has repaid the favor by bungling pretty much every statement he’s made since the day after winning the Republican nomination.
Last week, Bailey memorably urged people to “move on and celebrate” shortly after the Highland Park massacre, even though the shooter was still on the loose at the time.===
When you can count on ridiculous takes from fringe thinking type candidates, the investment in Bailey pays.
The long term damage to the governing and politics, as the cult assumes the party’s mantle, the real idea to honest governing in bipartisanship is lost. Illinois will be less with Trumpkin cultists taking the brand.
- Teacher Lady - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 4:53 pm:
They like Trump because he hates the same people they hate.
It’s nothing but grievance politics.
- Anyone Remember - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 5:24 pm:
Trump was going to oppose LDD as soon as he got a Trump worthy GOP opponent. 2016 comments. Trump doesn’t forget.